Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Holy CROP

by Paul Wells on Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:47am - 58 Comments

Liberals down 9 points in Quebec since June. Conservatives up 8 points in Quebec since June. NDP down 5 points in Quebec since August. Michael Ignatieff’s best-prime-minister score down 17 points since April. All sampling concluded before Denis Coderre turned extra-picturesque on Monday. Further entrails here.

Tags: CROP, polls are for dogs

More by Paul Wells

http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

U.S. firm to teach French to Canadians

DND personnel in Colorado to get training under $285,000 deal

By Glen McGregor, The Ottawa CitizenSeptember 30, 2009 8:58 AM

OTTAWA — After receiving poor reviews for its record on bilingualism, the Department of National Defence plans to hire a U.S. company to give French lessons to Canadian Forces personnel stationed in Colorado.

The department issued a notice Tuesday saying it intended to award the work to Globelink Foreign Language Center in Colorado Springs through a standing offer worth up to $285,000, effectively paying Americans to teach one of Canada's official languages to Canadians.

….hmmm…..how will this play out in Quebec?

Carson Clay

Did you even bother to find out the type of courses Globelink offers ? This isn't your French 101 for dummies.

http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Ya, but that wouldn't stop Duceppe.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

I was wondering how long before Lib partisan comes along and tries misdirection. Nothing to see here, folks, move along please. Sure Iggy has similar numbers to Dion but that doesn't matter because it is 'summer' and no one is paying attention. It will all turn around after Labour Day.

Snort.

Does anyone who pays attention to Quebec politics have an explanation for why Iggy is doing so poorly in la belle prov or are they just feeling similar malaise towards Libs the ROC has.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

I was wondering how long before Lib partisan comes along and tries misdirection. Nothing to see here, folks, move along please. Sure Iggy has similar numbers to Dion but that doesn't matter because it is 'summer' and no one is paying attention. It will all turn around after Labour Day.

Snort.

Does anyone who pays attention to Quebec politics have an explanation for why Iggy is doing so poorly in la belle prov or are they just feeling similar malaise towards Libs the ROC exhibits.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

I was wondering how long before Lib partisan comes along and tries misdirection. Nothing to see here, folks, move along please. Sure Iggy has similar numbers to Dion but that doesn't matter because it is 'summer' and no one is paying attention. It will all magically change in Libs favour after Labour Day.

Snort.

Does anyone who pays attention to Quebec politics have an explanation for why Iggy is doing so poorly in la belle prov or are they just feeling similar malaise towards Libs the ROC exhibits.

http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

I have no idea why Iggy has tanked in Quebec. Could it be they don't like his election posturing? Maybe people are seeing the light in the tunnel for an economic recovery, and are switching to Harper as the reward? Maybe they have gotten to know Iggy and are not impressed.
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

You' ll be shocked – but I wasn't even thinking of the Liberals on this one……the BLOC could make hay day with it and increase their numbers big time.

Not trying to change any channels (paranoia is a sickness you know). Just wondered how this would affect Quebec polls now that it has come out.

I think the BLOC would gain on this one.

Sorry to upset you – I know you want to cry partisanship in your partisan way.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

So that is why you posted something that is totally unrelated to Wells' original piece?

Well good of you to suddenly look after the BLOC's interest.

http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Oh, please – spare me this crap. I had just read it…………and Wells doing the "Quebec" crop poll and wondered if the issue would change anything.

Not to worry – Duceppe didn't bring it up in the House.

Issues and polls – do go together you know.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Quebec is a capricious mistress.

Come here, Stephen Harper, we love you — Tories up 34-32 over the Bloc in September 2008. Tories crash and burn.

Come here, Michael Ignatieff, we love you — Liberals in 30s agains the Blog in May 2009. Liberals crashing and burning?

Meanwhile, Gilles Duceppe marches on…
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Quebec is a capricious mistress.

Come here, Stephen Harper, we love you — Tories up 34-32 over the Bloc in September 2008. Tories crash and burn.

Come here, Michael Ignatieff, we love you — Liberals in 30s against the Bloc in May 2009. Liberals crashing and burning?

Meanwhile, Gilles Duceppe marches on…

wilson

Maybe this fickleness is actually a sign that Quebecers are growing tired of Du…..nah

wilson

Geeze, re-reading your comment tigerinexile, has anyone kept score on who flip flops more,
MI or Quebecers?

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

They tease…

Ignatieff too — most thinking conservatives were greatly cheered by his return to Canada to enter public life…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

Don't forget about the Outremont tease… it got the NDP's heart a flutterin…

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Hope springs eternal…

http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

Seems like there is a good 20% of the vote in Quebec that is willing to park their vote in any one of the BQ, Con or Lib camps. Meanwhile, in the rest of Canada, vote preference changes at glacial speed.
http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

Quebeckers, Tiger, are not capricious.

There are more options on the federalist side. Point final. Support for Duceppe is basically support for PQ is basically support for sovereignty minus Quebec Solidaire voters.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

CROP's Maïalène Wilkins said it best: "«C'est une véritable dégringolade pour les libéraux et Michael Ignatieff depuis juin. Il a bénéficié d'un capital de sympathie, mais il n'a pas réussi à en profiter»

Dégringolade = rapid deterioration
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

CROP's Maïalène Wilkins said it best: "«C'est une véritable dégringolade pour les libéraux et Michael Ignatieff depuis juin. Il a bénéficié d'un capital de sympathie, mais il n'a pas réussi à en profiter»

'Dégringolade' = rapid deterioration
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

CROP's Maïalène Wilkins said it best: "«C'est une véritable dégringolade pour les libéraux et Michael Ignatieff depuis juin. Il a bénéficié d'un capital de sympathie, mais il n'a pas réussi à en profiter»

('Dégringolade' = rapid deterioration).
Blues Clair

Ignatieff's next book could be fairly interesting.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Depends on where he writes it from…

Still, he's not dead yet. Harper looked like a dead man walking back in January, and things changed back…

Blues Clair

Hey tigerinexile, good to see around again… you disappeared.

Indeed, he's not dead… I was just having some fun.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Oh, sure.

The Liberal Party is lots of fun, these days… And it always starts in Outremont! What's up with that riding?

[I still haunt my old favourite Canadian political blogs. Re my own blog disappearing -- there's a reason for that. I keep an e-mail to get spam at -- this username at gmail.com. Send me an e-mail in the next day or two, and I'll keep an eye out for it among the waves of ads, political solicitations, and offers from airlines.]

Mark

From the Record.com
And he said it is Prime Minister Stephen Harper who wants an election, and not his party leader, Michael Ignatieff.
“Mr. Harper wants one desperately and he is going to try and bring this House down,” said Trudeau, the eldest son of former prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau.

Who is voting non-cofidence this week?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

Silly kids.
wilson

Isn't young Trudeau's brilliance amazing!!
Yes, yes, Liberals are bringing in a non-confidence motion to stop Harper from getting the election he wants,
because voting against the government ….errr wait a minute…
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

He might well be right.

But if that's so, I look forward to his vote of confidence in the government.

(Though I think Harper's returned to the line, "The longer I'm prime minister, the longer I'm prime minister." Won't want to go until and unless he really thinks he can get a majority.)

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

I actually liked the headline on the story

"Le PLC perd des plumes au Québec"

Especially if you imagine a peacock.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Heh. I'm picturing either a particularly dishevelled peacock, or a chicken with its head cut off. Either way, there are lots of feathers flying around. ;-)

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

would it be a chicken in a latex suit….I think Mr Wells has a few pictures of that.

http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

or a puffin…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Puffins work, too. Whichever bird you fancy, it's clear that the LPC's Quebec ambitions have been totally plucked. You could even call it a clusterpluck.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I'm sure the Conservatives will do something to win back the ire of Quebec….like jaywalking or perhaps drinking tea without their pinkies raised. Corbleu.

wilson

The Government of Canada is actually being run out of Calgary, don't yah know!
What more reason do they need?

http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

The odd thing about the La Presse story is how the writer so easily assumes that these numbers already reflect the Coderre blow up. Given the dates, 17 to 27, I'm not at all sure that would be the case.

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Agreed. Any Coddere impact will show up in the next set of numbers.
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

I thought it was made clear that these DO NOT reflect l'affaire Coderre.

http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

Here is the first paragraph:

"Le chef libéral suscite ainsi beaucoup moins d'enthousiasme que lorsqu'il est arrivé à la tête du parti, il y a 10 mois. Les attaques soutenues du Bloc québécois et du Parti conservateur contre Michael Ignatieff, la bisbille entre Martin Cauchon et Denis Coderre et l'effacement du chef libéral durant l'été ont eu une influence sur les opinions des Québécois."

"ont eu une ifluence" means "Have had an influence" so the assumption is that Coderre-Cauchon is one of the things that has had is an impact.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

You are correct…..I guess the slow burn that had been going on earlier would be in this poll, but not the flare up that happened Monday and contuinues to thow off heat….

Next poll gets full effect, plus additional events.

Brendan Kane

Actually, the fare up started in the middle of last week

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

Does anyone else get the feeling that the bad news for Iggy has only just begun?

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

ROFL – man I thought it sucked to be a liberal a few weeks ago and the news is only going in one direction – poltical gravity sucks big time. No wonder the knives are being sharpened – vigorously as they say – I have a feeling the poast is in the oven and Steven, Jack and Gilles are arguing about who gets the choicest cuts.
http://nottawa.blogspot.com Mark

I guess this puts to rest the cyncial assertion that the Liberals are pushing for an election based on polling trends…
http://intensedebate.com/people/liliannattel liliannattel

oh crap it isn't like i love iggy but i find harper totally scary. with these numbers i can hear the election bell. no wonder the ndp is propping up mr. h…but still eventually it's got to happen and i just can't see how iggy is going to turn this around. tell me it ain't so.

Guest

You have got to be kidding. Harper scary? Where have you been in the last 4 years?

wilson

So, under the most excellent supervision of Denis Coderre, Libs numbers dropped by nearly 1/2……and THEN he exploded, hmmm
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

The great thing for the BQ is that they never really have to do anything, just wait for the others to continually step on the rake a-la Sideshow Bob.
wilson

Well I am so looking forward to the CBC At Issue Panel's explaination of the CPC gains in Quebec,
CPC voters being so much less educated and all…..
Not to mention the leaked 'socialist/separatist/give me a majority' cell phone video that was supposed to hit Harper where it hurts.
Brendan Kane

Flare up, I mean
hosertohoosier

The Liberals are still close to big gains with these numbers. Why? The Bloc is at 33%. With those kinds of numbers the Liberals could pick up 5-7 seats in Quebec. A 3.5 point swing in an election could even put the Liberals in first place in Quebec (though the Bloc would assuredly win more seats).
http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Liberals have fallen quite a bit though – I believe they were ahead of the BQ at one point, despite an apparent fall, the big number in this (relative to the national sub-samples of others polls) is the NDP.
http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

Kady will be on it.
hosertohoosier

The Liberals haven't consistently polled worse than Dion in Ontario, which makes it hard to believe they are doing much worse in Toronto. The only pollster that does city breakdowns is the Environics quarterly poll. Their "Toronto" poll includes the CMA, and has a margin of error of at least 6%. I realize that to folks outside of Southern Ontario "Toronto is Toronto", but as a Torontonian I must say that the things you associate with Toronto are not embodied by the Toronto CMA.

The CMA has a population of 5 million. It includes semi-rural fringes like Peel and Halton. It contains towns full of sweaty men that make cars. It also contains a number of unsightly communities full of homes that look absolutely the same and streets without sidewalks. In other words, it contains many parts of "Toronto" that are already very much part of the Tory tapestry already.

The best definition of "real" Toronto is the city of Toronto (ie. the 2.5 million people that vote in Toronto mayoral elections), though since amalgamation even that has been inundated with petty suburbanites that think yellow tail is fine wine… and Scarborough. My Toronto is south of Steeles, East of Jane and West of the Don Valley (Eastern Toronto sucks, and I don't want to risk including Scarborough). There are some things that Torontonians will never do.
1. Remember the name of whatever your insignificant community is.
2. Give up hope on our venerable hockey team.
3. Vote Conservative
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Liberal vote tends not to be very efficient in Quebec….where they win they win big. Maybe a couple of extra Bloc seats.

However, the big increases in Quebec mentioned earlier along with increases in the Maritimes hide a fall in Toronto.

IF there is a bad effect from Denis then the next Ekos poll is likely to be an EEEEKos poll for the LPC.

Keep your eyes open for it tomorrow.
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

This was the question on antother thread, and I am referring mostly to the previous weeks Ekos poll. What is Toronto defined as….Now the answer was the CMA ….The CMA does include significant parts of the 905, essentialy Oakville to Oashawa and in a pyramid up to Newmarket.

So from the last Ekos poll what you find is that the elevation in Liberal votes over the election was driven by increases in Quebec, Maritimes and BC (Vancouver CMA in particular). So like squeezing a balloon it meant that there was a drop in the Toronto CMA. It meant losses in the 905, for sure, but the question was how far in did it go.

While your definition of Toronto is pretty exclusionary, I would say that you better consider redefining the riding of Don Valley West out of your defintion. The other vulnerable riding is Eglinton Lawrence (Volpe's). I am not saying it will happen, just that these will be tough fights that the Libs could lose. Ignore if you want.

But we can agree on 2.