Categories: Andrew Coyne, Capital Read

Majorityville

by Andrew Coyne on Friday, October 2, 2009 2:17pm - 91 Comments

It’s just one poll, but … today’s Angus Reid poll is a shocker. (Or not — see below.) Never mind the headlne 10-point Conservative lead nationwide. We don’t have national elections in this country: we have a series of regional contests. Look, instead, at Ontario: Tories ahead 14 points, 44-30.

Reid’s press release notes that these numbers “would provide virtually the same results as the 2008 ballot.” In a pig’s eye. The Tories took 39 per cent of the vote in Ontario in 2008 (to the Liberals 34 per cent) — enough to win 51 seats. But with every percentage point in the popular vote above that, you take in about 5 more seats. In the 2004 election, the Liberals’ 44 per cent popular vote (to the Tories 31%) was enough to take 75 seats.

Provincially, using the same riding boundaries, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals translated a 42-32 popular vote lead in 2007 into 71 seats. In 2003, a 46-35 margin was good enough for 72 seats. Mike Harris won 82 seats in 1995 with a 14 point margin (45-31). So it’s probably safe to say that Reid’s numbers would give the Tories 75 seats.

All else being equal, 24 more seats in Ontario would be more than enough to put the Conservatives in majorityville.

BUT: Again, it’s just one poll. Still, averaging the four most recent polls (Reid plus Ekos, Ipsos, and Leger), the Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by 9 points, 42-33 — enough for, say, 65 seats.

BUTTER: Okay, fair enough: Reid had the Tories ahead in Ontario by the same margin in last week’s poll. [/Shocked.]

Tags: conservative party, election, Liberal party, majority

More by Andrew Coyne

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

It really all comes down to vote efficiency, which is so very difficult to assess without more detailed breakdowns.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

If there is a ten point gap in Ontario, it certainly overcomes the Conservative typical problem with efficiency. And Coyne's rule thumb with every percentage point in the popular vote above that, you take in about 5 more seats seems to make sense.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

If there is a ten point gap in Ontario, it certainly overcomes the Conservative's typical problem with efficiency. And Coyne's rule thumb with every percentage point in the popular vote above that, you take in about 5 more seats seems to make sense.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

If there is a ten point gap in Ontario, it certainly overcomes the typical Conservative disadvantage with efficiency. And Coyne's rule thumb with every percentage point in the popular vote above that, you take in about 5 more seats seems to make sense.

Caltorguy

People forget that the Chretien majorities came from winning EVERY seat in ON – that is so far away from the current Liberal reality that it doesn't bear discussion. The LPC problem is that they have no areas of growth. In QC they can win the seats they did under Chretien, and are really still nowhere in francophone QC. Michael Bliss wrote in the G&M that the CPC might be the new "natural governing party" – not sure about that but I don't see them losing power anytime soon.
Vexed Murphy

Mark Steyn's column in your latest Maclean's has not just crossed, but also obliterated any line of decency.

Shame on you, Andrew. Have you lost your marbles?
http://intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

Interesting that you have cited Michael Bliss as some sort of independent arbiter of "majorityville." Isn't is sweet that whenever a Conservative partisan wants to complain about the supposedly Liberal "chattering classes," they have mass media outlets like the Globe and Mail available to them?

Perhaps more amusing is your entirely unsupported claim from the Thursday panel that all the Conservatives have done recently is introduce policy after policy. I'd be interested to hear about all these interesting Conservative policies that have captured the imaginations of Canadians. Are you referring to the stimulus plan that they were forced into, or the revolutionary ban on flavored cigarettes?
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

Interesting that you have cited Michael Bliss as some sort of independent arbiter of "majorityville." Isn't it sweet that whenever a Conservative partisan wants to complain about the supposedly Liberal "chattering classes," they have mass media outlets like the Globe and Mail available to them?

Perhaps more amusing is your entirely unsupported claim from the Thursday panel that all the Conservatives have done recently is introduce policy after policy. I'd be interested to hear about all these interesting Conservative policies that have captured the imaginations of Canadians. Are you referring to the stimulus plan that they were forced into, or the revolutionary ban on flavored cigarettes?
KRB

"Mike Harris won 82 seats in 1995 with a 14 point margin (45-31)"

Of course, that was with a legislature of 130 seats, before the PC's passed their law to copy the federal ridings.

So I think your 75 seats is a little high. It's easier for the Liberals to make a 14-point spread translate into more seats than it is for the Conservatives. More like between 66-70 seats. For sure a majority of Ontario seats with those numbers, and no doubt eating up some previously resistant 905 seats and perhaps a couple seats in 416.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Wilf_Day Wilf_Day

With a four point swing in Ontario to the Conservatives, they still wouldn't win a single seat in Toronto. "We don’t have national elections in this country: we have a series of regional contests." Right, not even provincial. The Liberals seem to own Toronto, regardless what happens in the rest of the GTA; 244,732 Conservative voters elected no one. Yet in 14 ridings of South-Central Ontario 197,568 Liberal voters elected no one.
http://wilfday.blogspot.com/2008/12/what-would-pr…