Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

UPDATED: Strategic Counsel: Look up – waaaaay up! (41/28/14/9/40)

by kadyomalley on Monday, October 5, 2009 5:47pm - 94 Comments

The latest Globe and Mail/CTV poll reveals what are likely to be some seriously panic-inducing numbers for the Liberals, not so much because they’re doing so badly — which they are, of course, but they’ve got to be almost inured to that at this point — but because the Conservatives are doing so darned well, especially in Ontario:

Canada (with differences from a Sept. 3-6 poll are in brackets) (MoE 3.0):

Conservatives: 41 per cent (+6)

Liberals, 28 per cent (-2)

NDP: 14 per cent (none)

Green Party: 9 per cent (none)

Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-3)

Quebec (MoE 6.3):

Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-9)

Liberals: 33 per cent (+10)

Conservatives: 15 per cent (-1)

Greens Party: 8 per cent (+1)

NDP: 4 per cent (-2)

Ontario (MoE 5.0):

Conservatives: 46 per cent (+5)

Liberals: 30 per cent (-9)

NDP: 16 per cent (+5)

Green Party: 9 per cent (same)

The West (MoE 5.7):

Conservatives: 58 (+15)

Liberals: 18 (-6)

NDP: 15 (-7)

On the other hand, the Liberals can at least comfort themselves with the Quebec numbers, which suggest that the party’s death-star like implosion may have been ever so slightly preemptively exaggerated.

Also, the obligatory poll obsessive gripe: “The West”? Seriously, Strategic Counsel? How is that 58 percent supposed to be even the least bit meaningful when it includes Alberta? And where’s “The East”, otherwise known as Atlantic Canada? Other than that oddity in breakdown methodology, these results are in line with what we’ve seen from other polls taken over the last week or so, but still, it would be interesting to see what the numbers are in British Columbia and Saskitoba, rather than lumping it all into one big amorphous blob.

UPDATE: Yay! The Globe and Mail has put up the full data tables, which include, among other fascinating tidbits, the fact that Strategic Counsel apparently interviewed just 125 respondents in all of Atlantic Canada — that’s four provinces, and a total of 32 seats — for a weighted sample size of 74, the results for which have been omitted entirely from the regional breakdowns.

More by kadyomalley

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Wait for the polls that come out next week, which will reflect Harper's post-NAC bounce. He's firmly in majority territory now. If Ignatieff succeeds in pulling the election trigger, he will essentially be committing political suicide.
Mike B

You mean amorphous 'blob', right?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Yikes. That was a deeply Freudian slip.

Democracy Now

We don't have elections in Canada – we have racial and gender headcounts. Whites and men will vote Conservative, non-whites and hags will vote for the socialist coalition – in a deliberate collusion to steal money, jobs, and fun from white males, and ruin Canada in the process. That's not an opinion, that's extremely well documented political science.

Not that ITQ is a big fan of democracy :-) Hey, Kady, guess who said this:

"And if this isn't a democracy, let the revolution begin."

It was Pierre Trudeau, back in the 60s before he entered Parliament. Who am I to argue with St. Pierre of Westmount? Let's do this. Drop the puck, we're good to go.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Looks like we've been graced with a visit from the usual troll. This time he's posing as some crazy bigot.
http://intensedebate.com/people/centristbias centristbias

is this satire?

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Wait for the polls coming out next week, which will reflect Harper's post-NAC bounce. He's firmly in majority territory now. If Ignatieff succeeds in pulling the election trigger, he will essentially be committing political suicide.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Wait for the polls coming out next week, which will reflect Harper's post-NAC bounce. He's firmly in majority territory now.

If Ignatieff succeeds in pulling the election trigger, he will essentially be committing political suicide.

anonymoose

chances of anything happening this fall/winter are now virutally nil. Next spring will be the next big test on the budget. Now that I think about it though, is there not 1 more ways and means for budget implementation yet to go through, or did that pass already?
Will

Now if Harper manages to just govern for a while as opposed to last year when he saw numbers like this and said "PARLIAMENT IS DYSFUNCTIONAL!", he may be able to hold these numbers. As soon as he panics and acts partisan, he will lost this support.

He needs to muzzle all of his MPs and Harper needs to keep singing and not causing any further scandals. If he can make like he's a centre-left party, he'll get his majority. After that, he can turn Canada into whatever he wants!
http://intensedebate.com/people/DeliciousLattes DeliciousLattes

Do the "real Canadians" I keep reading and hearing about care that we now live in the "post-NAC" era?

Alberta Bound

To pick a nit, even within "Alberta" there is a lot of variety Kady. I know, tough to believe. I'd like to see a poll that shows how likely yhe NDP are to hang onto their beach head there.

Dakota

Kady will be grumpy after this poll, I wouldn't bug her too much about her bias against Alberta.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

That is unkind…I too am upset, because BC is not broken out. And that is because it is battleground.

Alberta has the cons over 50, likely over 60…..mansask is likely over 50 with those numbers….but the BC breakdown.

And yeah what happened to the maritimes….there a re a couple of swing seats. Given the national numbers holding somewhat firm for the libs…i suspect there hasnt been much change in those 2 areas….the story is the shift up in Quebec which hides the fall in Ontario.

Now if the numbers persist in Ontario Quebec voters will give the tories another look……just the way it works.

But there is no election right now, so it diesnt matter. By seeking one Harper would lose his lead and by avoiding one he may get what he seeks. Funny how life works out that way.

Bonnie N

Oh please
It appears to be a total rejection of the Liberal brand. Er but not in Quebec. I guess the majority of Canadians don't think Harper is scary anymore. I am gob smacked but probably not surprised.

Whoever is telling Iggy not to discuss policy is so wrong. If you give Canadians a plan they can buy in. The breezy talk from the government in not really discussing the long term structural deficit. Kinda boring.. In Toronto and Vancouver they just keep buying up real estate at premium prices 'cause the gravy train will set things right.

I am not sure anyone can stop the bleeding of the Liberals because for the life of me I cannot articulate any detailed policy. Oh I know everyone hated Dion but I could tell you what his policy was…

Canada has become the sum of it's regional divide and the current government can play us but I remain an optimist. Somewhere, sometime the reality of our economy will occur to Canadians.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I'm not anti-Alberta; I'm so pro-Alberta that I feel it should always be given its own separate listing in the regional breakdowns.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Three polls in three successive weekdays??

When there are exciting new photos on the R4I site? (well new to me, anyway) Seems like it really is just some wingnut Republican after all. Who'da thought?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

I wrote about those back when they were posted! I even convinced the Missouri Republican pictured — a very earnest and possibly tragically trusting young activist named Yancy Williams — to send me one of the Republicans for Ignatieff signs. Unfortunately for his street cred as a seasoned operative, he doesn't know anything more about the origin of the site than the rest of us — he stumbled on it one day, thought it sounded like a heck of a campaign and emailed the Colonel to ask what he could do to help. Whether or not he has unwittingly become part of a future legendary prank remains to be seen.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

OK, but if you found someone who was so eager and willing to promote the cause, clearly there are people who think like that. I'd still wager that's who is behind it, and that they're getting 99% of their hits complements of ITQ..

mark

Chantal Hebert's oft-repeated line about not being able to win a majority without winning seats in Quebec would be invalidated completely by these polls (if accurate). And under the new electoral map even moreso.

anonymoose

maybe the rest of canada is sending a subtle message to quebec?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

"When we come back with a majority, then ALL bets are off."
Gerry Ritz, Conservative Federal Minister of Agriculture, Feburary 13, 2008.

I'm starting to think we'll have to see what Mr. Ritz really meant before people will wake up to the nature of Harper's party.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Quiet down now, or they'll have their secret police investigate you for leaking word of their plot.

I think the clearest thing the recent polls suggest, is that your 'conspiracy' theory- long held in Ontario, is getting debunked.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

I think you need to look up the word "debunked".

If anything, it may get tested. I hope like hell that if it is it will be debunked, but to say it is now is simply showing you have no idea what the word means.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

No, that is exactly what I meant.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

No, that is exactly what I meant. Perhaps you should look inward.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

Or people can look to how the Conservatives have actually governed when given the chance for these last three years. It's a known quantity. And the irony is that any accusations of a hidden agenda can be thrown at the Liberals now, because we sure as heck have no idea what an Iggy government wants to do, do we?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

How they govern in a minority stance does not make them a known quantity at all. The interesting bit will be in the opening months of a majority Harper government. Only then will they become a known quantity, when the danger of them being thrown out isn't present for at least a few years.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

Who in the world are you kidding? How can Canadians not know the government they've voted for for the past four years, even if it is a minority? At some point some Harper bashers will have to come up with material that stopped working the second he got into office. In fact, I'm still surprised at the extent to which they still resort to it. But I guess it just gives Harper an ever freer ride, doesn't it.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

I dunno.. maybe they're paying attention to things such as ""When we come back with a majority, then ALL bets are off."

hosertohoosier

While these are good numbers for Harper they are not worth defeating himself over. For one, Strategic Counsel is one of the least reliable pollsters (we are talking about a 1000 person sample here). For another, what it showed wasn't all good news for Harper. 15% in Quebec imperils about 7 of Harper's Quebec seats (and almost guarantees a return to cabinet for Maxime Bernier, who will be among the living). A 15 point surge in the west doesn't really net Harper a lot of seats, especially if it is in Alberta.

However, Harper has a much better reason to wait. The bill to create 21 additional seats gives Harper (and Ignatieff, actually) a much friendlier playing field. The Tories will surely win the 5 Alberta seats, and the lion's share of the other 16. Moreover, Canada's economic recovery is still rather tepid. Getting some strong results (and getting his money's worth politically for the deficit) are going to be an imperative for Harper.

Moreover, Harper doesn't need a majority. When the polls say "Harper majority" (or something near it), the other parties will have to cave to Harper's agenda. Harper appears to have learned a little from his first term, and now may sometimes even throw the other parties a bone or too. Drama-free governing for the next 2 years will get Harper more than 1000 NAC performances.

Prediction – no election till 2011.

http://intensedebate.com/people/DaveFromToronto DaveFromToronto

The interesting question (for me, at least): will the additional seats make it possible for Harper to obtain a majority without any representation in Toronto or Quebec?

While there are some in the Conservative camp who would rejoice at the notion of seeing these two parts of the country shut out of Parliament, I can't help but think that a government that can afford to ignore entire parts of Canada is not a desirable thing. It didn't work out well when the Liberals had a majority with no representation in large parts of the West; this won't work out well, either.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/DaveFromToronto DaveFromToronto

The interesting question (for me, at least): will the additional seats make it possible for Harper to obtain a majority without any representation in Toronto or Quebec?

While there are some in the Conservative camp who would rejoice at the notion of seeing these two parts of the country shut out of Parliament, I can't help but think that a government that can afford to ignore entire regions of Canada is not a desirable thing. It didn't work out well when the Liberals had a majority with no representation in large parts of the West; this won't work out well, either.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

These numbers indicate there will be cracks in 416 and they would hold on t at least 5 if not all of their PQ seats.

Libs rise in Quebec doesnt change con seats it changes bloc or ndp seats.
http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

Both the Tories and the Liberals face regional challenges. My sense is that the latest poll numbers are showing that the Tories will likely win a number of seats in Toronto in the next election. The days of no Tory representation in 416 may be coming to an end. On the other hand, I don't see any sign that the Liberals are picking up support in the West.

wilson

The new seats for Alberta would be in urban areas, where Dippers are more competitive than the numbers show.
And why would Libs and Dippers not be competitve in new seats for BC and Ontario?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Probably true, but "more competitive" in Alberta generally means that we'd have to wait til the polls closed in Manitoba before we know how an Alberta riding is going to go.. rather than when they close in Newfoundland.

The "eye of Layton" riding in Edmonton being the exception, of course.

http://intensedebate.com/people/danby danby

Everyone seems to be forgetting the dual personnas of the PM. If he stays the course, his numbers will continue to build. Bbut he has also shown an affinity for kicking sand in faces. Can he hold it together? Who can tell him if he's making a mistake?

Dave

Here's an open question for the thread- are national polls skewed because of the monolith that is Alberta? Every poll I see 60-65 % voting Reform- does that not have an effect on a clear national picture? Does this question make any sense? Please answer politely or slap me around as you see fit.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

no, there simply arent that many people in Alberta……there are likely fewer voters in Alberta that there in 416

So it has an effect but it isnt like GTA which is toronto and suburbs….essentially 2 + Albertas.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

*slap* for calling the Conservatives "Reform".

Check these polls against the ones near the end of the last election campaign. Or just look at the national popular vote last time out and the seat distribution.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_ele…

sbt

That Ontario split is interesting. The 2008 election was 39.2/33.8/18.2 for the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP. A 46/30/16 split, if it holds, likely means significant Conservative gains in and around Toronto.

http://www.intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Excellent point. Numbers like these point to the possibility that the Liberals' "Metro Toronto fortress" could finally be breached. There's more than a few Toronto ridings that could turn blue on that big map we all watch on election night.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

the top 5 416 ridings to fall if these numbers were real. Lib to Con

Don Valley West
York Centre (Drydens Riding)
Eglington West (Volpe's riding)
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke Lakeshore (Iggys riding)

Libs likely pick up Chows riding

Libs likely also lose, Szabo, Dhalla, Holland and Wilfert. Who knows what would happen in 519…..even Pearson might have trouble at these numbers.

http://chuckercanuck.blogspot.com chuckercanuck

If this happened. I'd take on the mortgage to move there.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Those werent predictions….think of it more as ridings that currently close to the flood plain. Should it happen then Don Valley West backs on to the river. and Etocbicoke Lakeshoe is built on downslope about half way down the river. Toronto Centre is built on the highest point in the area. Not saying it cant happen, just really really unlikely…once in a millenium flood.

So I am just pointing out ridings that arent that far away from changing hands and the current numbers would push it over. 2008 still got the cons about 32 % in the 416, so it isnt like nobody votes conservative there…despite what hyper partisans or hyper reguionalists would have you beleieve….just like there are Liberals and Dippers in Alberta….as we have seen.

wilson

Coyne pointed out in his Majorityville blog, that 44% in Ontario gave Libs 75 seats.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

yes it is a good proxy…..but we have seen in other places that replacing parties on the support grid doesnt always yield the same numbers…..efficiency of vote, splits etc.

As well, Coyne misses half the fun of speculating which MP's are under threat and seing if that explains their behaviour, or predicts their behaviour, or if they are blissfully unaware or completely accept their fate.

kcm

Govts in Canada aren't voted in, they're voted out [ what exceptions are there are to that rule ] Folks are looking over the alternative and turning thumbs down – for now. By this logic there's still a chance for the libs in particular to turn things around. Just not looking good right now.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

This really is the Big Test for Michael Ignatieff. Can he turn things around?

He's an intelligent guy, so he certainly has the potential to change the direction of his leadership. The question is: can he do it? Does he understand Canadians well enough to make the hard choices he will eventually need to make, in order to save his party from a crushing defeat?

http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

LOL. Did you just combine a complaint about lumping things into amorphous blobs with the word "Saskitoba"?

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

Shush, you.
mungman

I agree it Saskitoba is incorrect, Manitchewan would however be acceptable

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Mansask for me, or how about Saskanitobiwan

Gawd

that's what happens when you have a plan

doo da doo da
http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

Personally, I'll wait for other polls. There is no pollster I trust less than Strategic Counsel. First of all, it's a media poll and second Strategic Council have an unimpressive track record.

There polls also strike me as a little too "strategic" sometimes. I'd really, really like to believe there has been a sharp drop in Bloc support in Quebec but I'm sorry I can't believe it.

Dakota

It's an outlier right? And all pollsters are neo-con hacks right?

It couldn't be that this trend has been going on for over a month now!

Did Dion ever poll this poorly before the election?

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

You must have been waiting for that comment…… ;-)

Dakota

Haha, I was scolded for taunting last time. I now wait for the predictable post blaming the polling firm.

Patience young Skywalker!

wilson

Did Dion ever poll this poorly before the election?
no
http://intensedebate.com/people/JulesAime JulesAime

Actually, one reason I don't trust Strategic Counsel is because I think their past polls have tended to favour the Liberals unduly. (The other reason I don't trust them is their association with Globe/CTV both of which strike me as having a consistently pro-Liberal bias.) And I am wary of the Quebec numbers because I suspect the Liberals are actually doing much worse in Quebec than this poll suggests.

Foth Swallowed

"Look! A conservative! Commenting at Macleans! Let's get him!"

Jeez, next time I'm feeling down I'll remember what gigantic losers you people are and I'll feel better.
Dakota

A 13 point lead and Liberals are still threatening to topple the government. Ignatieff must really want to get back to the U.S.S.R….oops, I mean the U.S.A.

But that fiasco in Quebec had no effect on these polls right Kady? Wait, maybe the rest of Canada outside of Quebec saw his lack of leadership more then the people in Quebec did.

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

That's an interesting theory, but given what we've seen in the past, it seems more likely that it was increased exposure to Ignatieff that led to the drop in his numbers. It's also possible that he's suffering some blowback from the perception that hte Liberals are trying to force an election — remember, the previous Strategic Counsel poll was taken before the Sudbury caucus, so that would show up here.

wilson

'blowback from the perception that hte Liberals are trying to force an election'
force and election they appear they won't win, but force one anyways….that is either political suicide or,
winning doesn't matter because a coalition is in the works.
anonymoose

Ok, so let me ask you this then. Why does the NDP not suffer the same fate when they vote against the gov't 79 times? and why do they not get the bump when they vote with the gov't? Are they ignored by the the majority of people other than their core? I don't mean to be flippant about this as I think it is a valid question. Take it past the fact that we know that Jack will never be PM or official opposition. if your theory holds for the Libs, it should hold for the NDP, no?
Dakota

I'll be curious about next week’s polls which should show if Harper-mania has any effect on his numbers. As for Ignatieff, maybe he'd do better if he just stayed in the woods and kept quiet.

Lord Kitchener's Own

Wow.

That one actually woke me up!
Tony Quirk

Just for the record: The Death Star exploded, it did not implode.

The power convertor was destroyed both times (once by Luke’s lone X-Wing, and once by Wedge and Lando) and the resulting “explosion” destroyed both Death Stars.

This is a pretty important distinction, and the fact it has not been brought up before indicates everyone’s willingness to overlook the important issues of the day.

Q

http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

This seems as good a place as any to admit that <tiny voice> I've never watched a single one of the Star Wars movies in its entirety.</tiny voice>. If you need me, I'll be over here, turning in my geek card.

http://www.TennisVagabond.com Big Dave S

It's a date.
http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

Iggy is Darth Vader? Harper is Skywalker?
mungman

And here I had bought into your "I'm a geek" salespitch, it must be all that media experience that let you sell that kool-aid so well.

http://www2.macleans.ca/category/blogs/national/inside-the-queensway/ Kady O'Malley

I’m a more of a Joss Whedon/Frederic Brown/Robert Anton Wilson geek — Firefly and Connie Willis is about as hard-science-y as I like my fiction. Okay, maybe some Ray Bradbury. But no Heinlein. NEVER Heinlein.

Try not to hold it against me, okay?

http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

Well, I never saw the last three (or maybe you call 'em the first three, depending on Tony Q's nit-pickism). Chalk it up to just growing up, I guess. But, oh my Kady, you lose serious geek cred here. PLEASE redeem y'self by at least knowing who was Luke's daddy…

http://www2.macleans.ca/category/blogs/national/inside-the-queensway/ Kady O'Malley

See, if I hadn’t been spoilerized with that tidbit, maybe I would have had more incentive to actually watch the trilogy during my impressionable youth. (In my defence, I wasn’t *quite* old enough to appreciate the first two when they were released.)

That said, I’ll defend to the death the similarly timeless quality of two of my very favourite — and wildly underrated — flicks from my teen years: Night of the Comet and Vamp.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ed_Sweeney Ed_Sweeney

Your credibility in Totooine just fell through the floor.

harvey mushman

I'll be more impressed with Harper if he has actually learned his lessons from the "dysfunctional parliament" and claw back of public financing to political parties fiascoes.

His numbers are more likely to take a dive if Canadians perceive him to be engineering an election than they will for fears of the (ever popular…but well-worn) "hidden agenda" majority government boogy man.

In any event…I think we are about to learn whether the "scary Harper"/"hidden agenda" mantra of the Liberals is going to have any legs this time round. If they stick to that line it essentially leaves Iggy in the position of triggering an election for the sole purpose of holding Harper to a minority government that he already has. Quite the head scratcher that…
Blues Clair

Strange Quebec numbers for the Liberals. I know I breathed a great sigh of relief when Coderre resigned…
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

The biggest story from this poll is that the Conservatives seem to have a solid lead among female voters!

36% of female respondents supported the Conservatives, and 28% supported the Liberals. This is a complete reversal of the Strategic Counsel poll in May – 28% of females supported the Conservatives, vs. 38% for the Liberals.

wilson

And check out the University crowd!!! EVERY category except income under $50K, cons are ahead.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Ha! I nailed it.

http://skinnydips.blogspot.com Skinny Dipper

My advice to the Conservatives: Be Toronto-friendly.

I'm no fan of the Harper régime. I used the poll results listed above and went to the UBC Election Forecaster website. I transferred some votes from the NDP to the Liberals and from the Liberals to the Conservatives in Ontario. I tried to get a rough equivalent of the poll results. Based on my transfer of votes, I think the Conservatives will be highly competitive in the following Toronto 416 ridings: Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Ignatieff's riding), Etobicoke North, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Willowdale, and York Centre. That's ten ridings!
http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

On the major topic of import this evening (of course I mean the Star Wars erratum discussion), Intense Debate tells me that my playful rebuke of Kady has earned a reply. But do I see that reply? Do I even see my rebuke within the post's comments? Nooooooooooo…

http://intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/SisyphusThis SisyphusThis

S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.

Aside from the fun and games of spurious commentary it adds the back
alley delights of playing craps.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

I see it.

But then, I can't see my last few replies to other posts.

What's up with that, Intense Debate?!

wilson

As for the numbers from the West, other than Alberta's 28, there are 64 more seats, so Libs must be crashing in BC and Manitoba (assuming Alberta/Sask are always topped out pro Con)
http://intensedebate.com/people/KadyITQ KadyITQ

The Liberals may indeed be crashing in BC, although then again, they may not, but there are a lot of seats that are NDP/Conservative battlegrounds, which is why not breaking out those numbers makes it incredibly difficult to tell whether the Conservatives are poised to make gains in that region. The NDP has also been at the forefront of the anti-HST battle there, which could also boost their provincial numbers. "The West" is simply far too varied to be lumped together like that.
Brendan Kane

Actually, they give the totals for "the West"" from the last election. The Liberals are about the same, & it's the NDP that has crashed, losing 1/3 of it's vote.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Weren't the Liberals down in fourth place in BC, halfway through last campaign? They recovered…
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Agreed….more BC please.
http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

If true then the cons pick up about 4 seats around vancouver. It is largely a Con Dipper fight.

Hmmm I wonder about northern Ontario……thats usually a con Liberal fight
http://www.intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

If true then the cons pick up about 4 seats around vancouver. It is largely a Con Dipper fight.

Hmmm I wonder about northern Ontario……thats usually a Dipper Liberal fight