The latest Globe and Mail/CTV poll reveals what are likely to be some seriously panic-inducing numbers for the Liberals, not so much because they’re doing so badly — which they are, of course, but they’ve got to be almost inured to that at this point — but because the Conservatives are doing so darned well, especially in Ontario:
Canada (with differences from a Sept. 3-6 poll are in brackets) (MoE 3.0):
- Conservatives: 41 per cent (+6)
- Liberals, 28 per cent (-2)
- NDP: 14 per cent (none)
- Green Party: 9 per cent (none)
- Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-3)
Quebec (MoE 6.3):
- Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-9)
- Liberals: 33 per cent (+10)
- Conservatives: 15 per cent (-1)
- Greens Party: 8 per cent (+1)
- NDP: 4 per cent (-2)
Ontario (MoE 5.0):
- Conservatives: 46 per cent (+5)
- Liberals: 30 per cent (-9)
- NDP: 16 per cent (+5)
- Green Party: 9 per cent (same)
The West (MoE 5.7):
- Conservatives: 58 (+15)
- Liberals: 18 (-6)
- NDP: 15 (-7)
On the other hand, the Liberals can at least comfort themselves with the Quebec numbers, which suggest that the party’s death-star like implosion may have been ever so slightly preemptively exaggerated.
Also, the obligatory poll obsessive gripe: “The West”? Seriously, Strategic Counsel? How is that 58 percent supposed to be even the least bit meaningful when it includes Alberta? And where’s “The East”, otherwise known as Atlantic Canada? Other than that oddity in breakdown methodology, these results are in line with what we’ve seen from other polls taken over the last week or so, but still, it would be interesting to see what the numbers are in British Columbia and Saskitoba, rather than lumping it all into one big amorphous blob.
UPDATE: Yay! The Globe and Mail has put up the full data tables, which include, among other fascinating tidbits, the fact that Strategic Counsel apparently interviewed just 125 respondents in all of Atlantic Canada — that’s four provinces, and a total of 32 seats — for a weighted sample size of 74, the results for which have been omitted entirely from the regional breakdowns.
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My advice to the Conservatives: Be Toronto-friendly.
I'm no fan of the Harper régime. I used the poll results listed above and went to the UBC Election Forecaster website. I transferred some votes from the NDP to the Liberals and from the Liberals to the Conservatives in Ontario. I tried to get a rough equivalent of the poll results. Based on my transfer of votes, I think the Conservatives will be highly competitive in the following Toronto 416 ridings: Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Ignatieff's riding), Etobicoke North, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Willowdale, and York Centre. That's ten ridings!
On the major topic of import this evening (of course I mean the Star Wars erratum discussion), Intense Debate tells me that my playful rebuke of Kady has earned a reply. But do I see that reply? Do I even see my rebuke within the post's comments? Nooooooooooo…
S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.
S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.
Aside from the fun and games of spurious commentary it adds the back
alley delights of playing craps.
I see it.
But then, I can't see my last few replies to other posts.
What's up with that, Intense Debate?!