Comments on: UPDATED: Strategic Counsel: Look up – waaaaay up! (41/28/14/9/40)

By: Thwim

Thwim — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 21:06:45 +0000

I dunno.. maybe they're paying attention to things such as ""When we come back with a majority, then ALL bets are off."

By: JulesAime

JulesAime — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 22:24:58 +0000

Actually, one reason I don't trust Strategic Counsel is because I think their past polls have tended to favour the Liberals unduly. (The other reason I don't trust them is their association with Globe/CTV both of which strike me as having a consistently pro-Liberal bias.) And I am wary of the Quebec numbers because I suspect the Liberals are actually doing much worse in Quebec than this poll suggests.

By: Dennis_F

Dennis_F — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:34:41 +0000

Who in the world are you kidding? How can Canadians not know the government they've voted for for the past four years, even if it is a minority? At some point some Harper bashers will have to come up with material that stopped working the second he got into office. In fact, I'm still surprised at the extent to which they still resort to it. But I guess it just gives Harper an ever freer ride, doesn't it.

By: Ed_Sweeney

Ed_Sweeney — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:18:06 +0000

OK, but if you found someone who was so eager and willing to promote the cause, clearly there are people who think like that. I'd still wager that's who is behind it, and that they're getting 99% of their hits complements of ITQ..

By: TwoYen

TwoYen — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:33:10 +0000

Both the Tories and the Liberals face regional challenges. My sense is that the latest poll numbers are showing that the Tories will likely win a number of seats in Toronto in the next election. The days of no Tory representation in 416 may be coming to an end. On the other hand, I don't see any sign that the Liberals are picking up support in the West.

By: Thwim

Thwim — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:51:46 +0000

Probably true, but "more competitive" in Alberta generally means that we'd have to wait til the polls closed in Manitoba before we know how an Alberta riding is going to go.. rather than when they close in Newfoundland.

The "eye of Layton" riding in Edmonton being the exception, of course.

By: Crit_Reasoning

Crit_Reasoning — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:48:28 +0000

Ha! I nailed it.

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:13:10 +0000

If true then the cons pick up about 4 seats around vancouver. It is largely a Con Dipper fight.

Hmmm I wonder about northern Ontario……thats usually a Dipper Liberal fight

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:12:58 +0000

If true then the cons pick up about 4 seats around vancouver. It is largely a Con Dipper fight.

Hmmm I wonder about northern Ontario……thats usually a con Liberal fight

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:11:35 +0000

Agreed….more BC please.

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:10:26 +0000

Mansask for me, or how about Saskanitobiwan

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 15:08:38 +0000

yes it is a good proxy…..but we have seen in other places that replacing parties on the support grid doesnt always yield the same numbers…..efficiency of vote, splits etc.

As well, Coyne misses half the fun of speculating which MP's are under threat and seing if that explains their behaviour, or predicts their behaviour, or if they are blissfully unaware or completely accept their fate.

By: Dakota

Dakota — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:29:29 +0000

I'll be curious about next week’s polls which should show if Harper-mania has any effect on his numbers. As for Ignatieff, maybe he'd do better if he just stayed in the woods and kept quiet.

By: Dakota

Dakota — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:26:51 +0000

Haha, I was scolded for taunting last time. I now wait for the predictable post blaming the polling firm.

Patience young Skywalker!

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 12:40:29 +0000

Those werent predictions….think of it more as ridings that currently close to the flood plain. Should it happen then Don Valley West backs on to the river. and Etocbicoke Lakeshoe is built on downslope about half way down the river. Toronto Centre is built on the highest point in the area. Not saying it cant happen, just really really unlikely…once in a millenium flood.

So I am just pointing out ridings that arent that far away from changing hands and the current numbers would push it over. 2008 still got the cons about 32 % in the 416, so it isnt like nobody votes conservative there…despite what hyper partisans or hyper reguionalists would have you beleieve….just like there are Liberals and Dippers in Alberta….as we have seen.

By: tigerinexile

tigerinexile — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:00:38 +0000

I see it.

But then, I can't see my last few replies to other posts.

What's up with that, Intense Debate?!

By: tigerinexile

tigerinexile — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:59:06 +0000

Weren't the Liberals down in fourth place in BC, halfway through last campaign? They recovered…

By: Brendan Kane

Brendan Kane — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 08:14:27 +0000

Actually, they give the totals for "the West"" from the last election. The Liberals are about the same, & it's the NDP that has crashed, losing 1/3 of it's vote.

By: SisyphusThis

SisyphusThis — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:39:47 +0000

S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.

Aside from the fun and games of spurious commentary it adds the back
alley delights of playing craps.

By: SisyphusThis

SisyphusThis — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:37:21 +0000

S'true. It does behave in Intensely Mysterious ways.

By: Crit_Reasoning

Crit_Reasoning — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:35:04 +0000

Excellent point. Numbers like these point to the possibility that the Liberals' "Metro Toronto fortress" could finally be breached. There's more than a few Toronto ridings that could turn blue on that big map we all watch on election night.

By: wilson

wilson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:31:06 +0000

And check out the University crowd!!! EVERY category except income under $50K, cons are ahead.

By: anonymoose

anonymoose — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:19:02 +0000

Ok, so let me ask you this then. Why does the NDP not suffer the same fate when they vote against the gov't 79 times? and why do they not get the bump when they vote with the gov't? Are they ignored by the the majority of people other than their core? I don't mean to be flippant about this as I think it is a valid question. Take it past the fact that we know that Jack will never be PM or official opposition. if your theory holds for the Libs, it should hold for the NDP, no?

By: wilson

wilson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:02:49 +0000

'blowback from the perception that hte Liberals are trying to force an election'
force and election they appear they won't win, but force one anyways….that is either political suicide or,
winning doesn't matter because a coalition is in the works.

By: wilson

wilson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:56:22 +0000

Did Dion ever poll this poorly before the election?
no

By: Ed_Sweeney

Ed_Sweeney — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:52:53 +0000

No, that is exactly what I meant. Perhaps you should look inward.

By: wilson

wilson — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:50:55 +0000

Coyne pointed out in his Majorityville blog, that 44% in Ontario gave Libs 75 seats.

By: madeyoulook

madeyoulook — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:46:37 +0000

On the major topic of import this evening (of course I mean the Star Wars erratum discussion), Intense Debate tells me that my playful rebuke of Kady has earned a reply. But do I see that reply? Do I even see my rebuke within the post's comments? Nooooooooooo…

By: Ed_Sweeney

Ed_Sweeney — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:39:01 +0000

Your credibility in Totooine just fell through the floor.

By: chuckercanuck

chuckercanuck — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:13:54 +0000

If this happened. I'd take on the mortgage to move there.

By: Kady O'Malley

Kady O'Malley — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:11:39 +0000

See, if I hadn’t been spoilerized with that tidbit, maybe I would have had more incentive to actually watch the trilogy during my impressionable youth. (In my defence, I wasn’t *quite* old enough to appreciate the first two when they were released.)

That said, I’ll defend to the death the similarly timeless quality of two of my very favourite — and wildly underrated — flicks from my teen years: Night of the Comet and Vamp.

By: Thwim

Thwim — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:11:14 +0000

How they govern in a minority stance does not make them a known quantity at all. The interesting bit will be in the opening months of a majority Harper government. Only then will they become a known quantity, when the danger of them being thrown out isn't present for at least a few years.

By: Kady O'Malley

Kady O'Malley — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:10:25 +0000

I’m a more of a Joss Whedon/Frederic Brown/Robert Anton Wilson geek — Firefly and Connie Willis is about as hard-science-y as I like my fiction. Okay, maybe some Ray Bradbury. But no Heinlein. NEVER Heinlein.

Try not to hold it against me, okay?

By: Skinny Dipper

Skinny Dipper — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:00:56 +0000

My advice to the Conservatives: Be Toronto-friendly.

I'm no fan of the Harper régime. I used the poll results listed above and went to the UBC Election Forecaster website. I transferred some votes from the NDP to the Liberals and from the Liberals to the Conservatives in Ontario. I tried to get a rough equivalent of the poll results. Based on my transfer of votes, I think the Conservatives will be highly competitive in the following Toronto 416 ridings: Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore (Ignatieff's riding), Etobicoke North, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Willowdale, and York Centre. That's ten ridings!

By: madeyoulook

madeyoulook — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:54:12 +0000

Well, I never saw the last three (or maybe you call 'em the first three, depending on Tony Q's nit-pickism). Chalk it up to just growing up, I guess. But, oh my Kady, you lose serious geek cred here. PLEASE redeem y'self by at least knowing who was Luke's daddy…

By: KadyITQ

KadyITQ — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:47:48 +0000

I wrote about those back when they were posted! I even convinced the Missouri Republican pictured — a very earnest and possibly tragically trusting young activist named Yancy Williams — to send me one of the Republicans for Ignatieff signs. Unfortunately for his street cred as a seasoned operative, he doesn't know anything more about the origin of the site than the rest of us — he stumbled on it one day, thought it sounded like a heck of a campaign and emailed the Colonel to ask what he could do to help. Whether or not he has unwittingly become part of a future legendary prank remains to be seen.

By: mungman

mungman — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:47:24 +0000

And here I had bought into your "I'm a geek" salespitch, it must be all that media experience that let you sell that kool-aid so well.

By: KadyITQ

KadyITQ — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:43:14 +0000

I'm not anti-Alberta; I'm so pro-Alberta that I feel it should always be given its own separate listing in the regional breakdowns.

By: tigerinexile

tigerinexile — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:40:15 +0000

*slap* for calling the Conservatives "Reform". Check these polls against the ones near the end of the last election campaign. Or just look at the national popular vote last time out and the seat distribution. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_ele...

By: mungman

mungman — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:38:06 +0000

I agree it Saskitoba is incorrect, Manitchewan would however be acceptable

By: KadyITQ

KadyITQ — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:29:38 +0000

The Liberals may indeed be crashing in BC, although then again, they may not, but there are a lot of seats that are NDP/Conservative battlegrounds, which is why not breaking out those numbers makes it incredibly difficult to tell whether the Conservatives are poised to make gains in that region. The NDP has also been at the forefront of the anti-HST battle there, which could also boost their provincial numbers. "The West" is simply far too varied to be lumped together like that.

By: s_c_f

s_c_f — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:15:21 +0000

Iggy is Darth Vader? Harper is Skywalker?

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:58:11 +0000

You must have been waiting for that comment…… ;-)

By: DeliciousLattes

DeliciousLattes — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:58:08 +0000

Do the "real Canadians" I keep reading and hearing about care that we now live in the "post-NAC" era?

By: VinceClortho

VinceClortho — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:56:21 +0000

no, there simply arent that many people in Alberta……there are likely fewer voters in Alberta that there in 416

So it has an effect but it isnt like GTA which is toronto and suburbs….essentially 2 + Albertas.