Categories: Capital Read, Inside the Queensway

EKOS Weekly: Zoooooooooom! (Thud.)(39.7/25.7/15.2/9.7/38.7)

by kadyomalley on Thursday, October 8, 2009 7:51am - 223 Comments

Hey Liberals! Aren’t you glad you weren’t actually able to bring down the government last week? And Tories — oh, come on, admit it: that ‘nobody wants another election’ talking point has to be starting to stick in your craw right about now. Not only are you firmly planted in just-possibly-depending-how-the-splits-go majority territory, but the Liberals have managed to drop below their 2008 election day support, which up until now was widely thought to be the absolute floor.

So, if you were sitting around the OLO conference room, trying to avoid making eye contact with Ian Davey and wondering if there’s any precedent for senior strategists crossing the floor, what part of today’s EKOS report would you find the most worrying — other than, you know, the numbers?

Here’s a suggestion: for the first time in more than two years, you’re not only trailing the Conservatives in Quebec — yes, it took a while to work through the system, but that much anticipated plunge finally seems to have happened — but in Atlantic Canada as well. Atlantic Canada! That was your one remaining beachhead of stubborn support!

Really, how on earth can you possibly have managed to alienate Canadians so consistently from coast to coast to coast? It’s actually kind of staggering when you think about it, although I’m sure that any number of commenters will be along to explain, in excruciating detail, exactly what has gone so terribly, horribly wrong. (The various leaders’ approval numbers, which are also included in today’s findings, should provide ample fodder for that particular debate.)

The pattern is actually fairly consistent across the regions: the Conservatives are up by three and change, the Liberals are down by roughly the same, and the NDP are holding steady: in fact, they’re even back on the rise out east, although the anti-HST crusade doesn’t seem to be doing much to move the ball forward in British Columbia or Ontario.

Anyway, without further ado — the national numbers, with a margin of error of 1.8 percent (NOT THAT IT MATTERS AT THIS POINT SERIOUSLY YOU GUYS):

Conservatives: 39.7 (+3.7)
Liberals: 25.7 (-4.0)
NDP: 15.2 (+1.3)
Green: 9.7 (-0.8)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 38.7 (-0.9)

The regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.92)
Conservatives: 41.6 (+4.2)
Liberals: 22.2 (-3.0)
NDP: 23.5 (+0.2)
Green: 12.7 (+1.6)

Alberta (MoE 6.71)
Conservatives: 61.0 (-2.1)
Liberals: 13.5 (-2.5)
NDP: 13.0 (+3.0)
Green: 12.5 (+1.7)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 6.86)
Conservatives: 51.6 (+2.8)
Liberals: 22.7 (-3.5)
NDP: 18.4 (-1.6)
Green: 7.2 (+2.2)

Ontario (MoE 2.89)
Conservatives: 43.8 (+3.8)
Liberals: 32.5 (-3.2)
NDP: 13.9 (+0.5)
Green: 9.7 (-1.1)

Quebec (MoE 3.48)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.7 (-0.9)
Conservatives: 22.2 (+5.6)
Liberals: 21.0 (-5.4)
NDP: 9.7 (+1.5)
Green: 8.4 (-0.8)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 6.95)
Conservatives: 34.8 (+5.1)
Liberals: 32.4 (-8.3)
NDP: 26.2 (+7.3)
Green: 6.6 (-5.1)

…. and finally, the cities:

Vancouver (MoE 10.22)
Conservatives: 44.9 (+2.7)
Liberals: 25.8 (-0.7)
NDP: 18.2 (-2.5)
Green: 11.1 (-1.4)

Calgary (MoE 12.45)
Conservatives: 48.1 (-13.9)
Liberals: 22.7 (+3.1)
NDP: 10.0 (+6.7)
Green: 19.1 (+4.1)

Toronto (MoE 5.59)
Conservatives: 44.8 (+5.7)
Liberals: 35.6 (-7.7)
NDP: 10.3 (-0.9)
Green: 9.4 (+2.0)

Ottawa (MoE 8.00)
Conservatives: 45.8 (+2.4)
Liberals: 36.0 (-3.3)
NDP: 9.5 (-0.5)
Green: 8.6 (+1.4)

Montreal (MoE 5.35)
Bloc Quebecois: 37.2 (+2.7)
Conservatives: 19.8 (+5.6)
Liberals: 24.4 (-7.3)
NDP: 8.5 (+1.2)
Green: 10.2 (-2.1)

Tags: crisis baldrick - crisis!, ekos weekly, it's all about him, that speech on tax hikes will totally turn this around

More by kadyomalley

E Mac

Seeing is believing and you can't dispute that fact. Steady as she goes and Cons can rest assured of a majority at the polls.
The good news is; the polls are positive for the Cons – The bad news is; the polls are negative for the Libs.
Comments by the usual suspects are absent, but one can expect that when they are being pummeled by a volcano – You take refuge under any rock you can find.
Katherine

As a Canadian, what I find most worrying about the poll is that the Bloc is sitting at 37% in Montreal. Montreal. That's not much lower than their Quebec average.

Other than that, the Conservatives nearly having majority support in the Greater Toronto area is stunning; even if the poll is off by the margin of error, they're doing incredibly well there. The polls for the other cities tell us very little given how large the margins of errror are. Speculativing about Calgary doesn't make much sense given that the numbers for it are based on a grand total of 62 people.

Being an NDPer, I don't like the numbers for Ontario or Sask/Man at all.
C. Miller

There is a break down of Calgary numbers but not Edmonton numbers? That seems strange as Calgary isn't in play but Edmonton ridings often are. Calgary and Edmonton are similar in size as well…..
Thoughts?
http://intensedebate.com/people/DaveFromToronto DaveFromToronto

What's interesting about all of this is that the Conservatives have gained traction in the polls despite not really doing much of anything. Other than the PM playing the piano.

People criticize the Liberals for not offering a real alternative to the Conservatives, and this criticism is justified. However, providing a platform, and promising to stick to it if elected, would be good for voters but bad bad political tactics. Consider:

- The Conservatives could steal the good bits and implement them.
- The Conservatives could unleash attack ads to slam what they perceived were the bad bits.
- Any honest, thought-out policy would require some tough decisions on how to deal with the deficit and the recession. Raise taxes? Cut spending? What happens next? But any pre-election hint of tax increases or spending cuts would be like painting a target on one's back.

I also believe that the Liberals had no choice but to actually oppose the Conservatives and threaten an election, even though nobody really wants one. The alternative was to be portrayed as the Tories' lapdogs.

Big Al

No choice? Yes, being tied in the polls is much worse than being behind 14 points

http://indigenousanalysis.blogspot.com Joseph Quesnel

The problem is Michael Ignatieff has not staked any ground or made himself known in a positive way to Canadians.
In terms of political skills, I think he is quite lacking. Being an excellent writer and political commentator does not translate into skilled political retail salesman.
Ignatieff seems to lack what Chretien had, or what Harper says, which is a shrewd sense of political strategy.
Harper is delivering on governance and strategy. He is controlling the message and the game. He has already defined Ignatieff for the public, as a tax-supporting, cosmopolitan, over- intellectual type with zero depth in Canada. This is opposed to Harper as an effective manager, good leader, and all-around-nice-guy.
I am not saying either of these frames are accurate, but that they exist out there.
Ignatieff has a LOT of work ahead of him to get out of this tailspin, I would think.
It also helps that the "hidden agenda" tack on the Conservatives is losing traction everytime it is brought up as to be meaningless now.
I think the CPC is on their way towards that majority.
http://myspace.com/ElectroPig ElectroPig

The biggest problem with Canadians as a whole is that they practise "see-saw voting" and are consistently amazed that they never get any changes.

"See-Saw Voting" Defined:

1) "Yaaaaaaaay! We're voting in Party 'A'! They'll fix everything!"
1a) Hmmmm. They didn't do so hot. We'll teach Party 'A'!!!"
2) "We're voting Party 'B' this time! That'll show those rotten Party 'A' scumbags!
2a) Hmmmm. They didn't do so hot. We'll teach Party 'B'!!!"
3) GOTO 1)

The time has come to understand that NONE of the "established parties" are doing anything for the benefit of Canada or it's citizens.

Look at the "alternatives" to the "established parties" who continue to erode our freedoms, expand the size of government, do NOTHING to protect the Canadian dollar, and who are decimating the country with a milllion tiny cuts at every opportunity.

We need to take our country back!

http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

do NOTHING to protect the Canadian dollar that closed Friday at 95.93 cents US:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange.html

expand the size of government… and who are decimating the country with a milllion (sic) tiny cuts at every opportunity. Care to expand on what appears to be a logical inconsistency?

http://sean-cummings.ca Sean Cummings

I think there's a sense among most people who pay even the smallest amount of attention that there's really not a whole lot of substance to Michael Ignatieff. We don't know what he stands for whereas Harper has basically morphed into a Liberal.(Also, Canadians know that Stephen Harper is a control freak with petty mean-spirited attributes, but at least he's OUR control freak with petty, mean spirited attributes. Iggy, on the other hand has yet to show voters who he really is.) It's hard for the Liberal party to differentiate itself from a Tory government that is actually a Liberal government under a different name. So if Canada has two Liberal parties, you have to wonder why the NDP isn't polling better.
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

So if Canada has two Liberal parties, you have to wonder why the NDP isn't polling better.

There's no mystery to it at all. They aren't polling any better because they aren't getting any good press.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

In this poll, the Conservative popular support is almost equal to support for the Liberals and NDP combined – one of the first times in recent memory (last time was at the start of December 2008).
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Really? Nothing else at all?
Anon Lib

Or it could be that persistent problem of not being able to explain how they'd pay for all their social policy without either a) raising the deficit to truly atronomical levels or b) taxing evil corporations to the point where they take all their evil jobs out of the country.

But yeah could be media coverage as well.

Course we all know that if the NDP ever did form a goverment (HA!) that Layton would morph into a middle-of-the-road Liberal-style govt (like NDP govts in Manitoba and Saskatchewan) in an effort to get re-elected. So it really is all pointless isn't it?
Derek

actually the NDP IS starting to get some good press. Lawrence Martin wrote a glowing op-ed piece about the NDP in the Globe the other day and more and more columnists are writing columns "thanking" the NDP for saving us from having an election…
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

Nope. Despite what some silly people claim, the corporate media still drives the narrative and the fortunes of political parties are determined by that narrative. Why else do you think partisans devote so much time to working the press. Dimitri Soudas and his counterparts for instance, aren't sending emails to Kady to ask her what's new in her life.
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Good god man, everyone's a socialist these days. Plenty of room to make themselves heard.
wilson

A poll recently showed that over 70% of Dippers support Jack's compromising with PMSH.
Read the tea leaves, and dump the Harper hating.
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

How do they make themselves heard when nobody is listening. All you have to do is look at this magazine as an example of that. When was the last bit of good press the NDP received here. If I'm not mistaken, that would be two months ago when they got a small amount from their convention. Since then the only real attention the NDP has received here was negative press when the party decided to support the Conservatives. Even their new ad didn't rate so much as a "Need to Know" post.

So you tell me, Sean, how do you combat the media's rampant indifference?
http://sean-cummings.ca Sean Cummings

Maybe nobody is listening because they suck. Surely you're not suggesting that government or, gasp, the unions control the media? Or maybe we should have legislation that forces the evil corporate media to give the left better access to their op-ed pages? You do realize that newspapers are fast becoming a thing of the past, right? I mean, they're declaring bankruptcy all over North America because of declining ad revenues. Finally, I'm prrrrrrrrrrrrrrretty sure Craig Oliver generally has a lefty on political discussion panels every Sunday morning on evil corporate entity CTV. Just sayin…
Susann

You choose to call it indifference. The NDP usually hovers around 15 – 17% of the national vote. The media coverage of the NDP should reflect this level. Layton is usually invited to voice his critique of gov´t in daily events, and frankly I think he already gets sufficient column inches and TV cameos.
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

"So you tell me, Sean, how do you combat the media's rampant indifference?"

I know this website isn't the whole media, but for a few days the featured 'fun' poll has been about the NDP. There is exactly one substantive comment, as I write this, People aren't exactly shy about sharing their ideas around here, so you have to ask yourself why the silence is so deafening. When people can't even be bothered to write something bad about them, that has to be a scary place for a party.

Does the media tend to report more about the parties contending to run the country? Absolutely. But if the NDP is content to keep trying to polish the same turds, while blaming the media for the public's indifference, it doesn't bode well for their future.

My humble suggestion for combatting media indifference is to put forward ideas that resonate with voters.
Marion

Well, the conserivatives are in that position right now as well, aren't they? How are they going to pay for all their spending and tax cuts?

And last I checked, the "evil corporations" are doing pretty well on their own in the taking-jobs-out-of-the-country department. I heard Sears just closed their call centre in Regina and calls will now be handed through the Phillippines…
http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

But if the NDP is content to keep trying to polish the same turds…

Are you referring to the turds that the majority of us eventually come to agree with. Remember, for instance, how they polished the opposition to the war in Afghanistan turd. It's pretty shiny now, isn't it.

My humble suggestion for combatting media indifference is to put forward ideas that resonate with voters.

They do. Lots of voters are in favour of EI reform but how much credit though, have the NDP received for pushing for it for the last decade. Their work was ignored until the recession hit and then the media gave most of the credit for the progress made to either the Conservatives or the Liberals.
Maps

Actually Taliban Jack was avocating that we essentially surrender to the Taliban. That particular turd hasn't come close to being polished. Your picture shows exactly what the Dippers are famous for… talking out of their Arse.