Conservatives: 40.7 (+1.0)
Liberals: 25.5 (-0.2)
NDP: 14.3 (-0.9)
Green: 10.5 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.1 (-2.6)
Undecided: 17.9 (+3.4)
Conservatives up! Liberals down (see, Colleague Wells told you they could find a different direction to take, all you the-only-way-left-is-uppers)! NDP, Bloc Quebecois even down-ier, although it’s worth noting that all changes are within the magical 2.1 margin of error, which is, incidentally, a tiny bit higher than usual for EKOS. That could be partly due to the growing population of Undecideds that was uncovered by this week’s surveyors; at this rate, if that number keeps rising, they may soon be able to describe themselves as ‘legion’. Or ‘destroyer of worlds’. Really, whatever works for them.
Anyway, as usual, the national numbers don’t tell us much about what’s really going on, since it’s all about the regions. So, what do the data tables reveal?
First, the regionals:
British Columbia (MoE 5.5)
Conservatives: 39.1 (-1.5)
Liberals: 23.2 (+1.0)
NDP: 20.3 (-2.2)
Green: 17.4 (+4.7)Alberta (MoE 6.5)
Conservatives: 66.7 (+6.6)
Liberals: 13.9 (+0.4)
NDP: 12.2 (-0.8)
Green: 7.3 (-5.2)Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.5)
Conservatives: 55.9 (+4.8)
Liberals: 20.0 (-2.7)
NDP: 19.0 (+0.6)
Green: 5.0 (-2.2)Ontario (MoE 3.6)
Conservatives: 44.1 (+0.3)
Liberals: 31.0 (-1.5)
NDP: 14.2 (+0.3)
Green: 10.7 (-1.0)Quebec (MoE 4.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.1 (-2.6)
Conservatives: 22.5 (-)
Liberals: 22.6 (+1.6)
NDP: 8.4 (-1.3)
Green: 10.4 (+2.0)Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.6)
Conservatives: 39.1 (+4.3)
Liberals: 31.0 (-1.4)
NDP: 23.6 (-2.6)
Green: 6.3 (-0.3)
… and the cities:
Vancouver (MoE 9.1)
Conservatives: 37.0 (-5.9)
Liberals: 28.4 (+2.6)
NDP: 23.3 (+5.1)
Green: 11.4 (+0.3)Calgary (MoE 12.6)
Conservatives: 68.9 (+20.8)
Liberals: 12.8 (-9.9)
NDP: 6.4 (-3.6)
Green: 12.0 (-7.1)Toronto (MoE 6.7)
Conservatives: 38.9 (-5.8)
Liberals: 40.8 (+5.2)
NDP: 10.9 (+0.6)
Green: 9.4 (-)Ottawa (MoE 9.6)
Conservatives: 52.7 (+6.9)
Liberals: 31.8 (-4.2)
NDP: 7.5 (-2.0)
Green: 8.0 (-0.6)Montreal (MoE 5.9)
Bloc Quebecois: 37.9 (+0.7)
Conservatives: 16.6 (-3.2)
Liberals: 26.0 (+1.6)
NDP: 10.5 (-2.0)
Green: 9.0 (-1.2)
As you can see, the Conservatives are up pretty much everywhere, with the exception of British Columbia and Quebec; they should probably be a little bit more — well, not worried, exactly, but attentive, at least — about the former, what with BC being a battleground and all. Especially considering the fact that Conservative MPs and cabinet ministers have spent the last month or so criss-crossing the province, handing out oversized stimulus cheques like they’re going out of style. (Which they very well might be if the opposition successfully shames the government into enforcing something approaching the existing Treasury Board guidelines on its overzealous MPs, but ITQ digresses.)
Meanwhile — and still in BC — the Liberals have actually managed to eke out a one point gain — and, if you check the results for Vancouver, it seems that might be conveniently clustered in an efficient little urban pocket, thus potentially sparing Ujjal Dosanjh and other MPs on the bubble as far as re-election prospects. The NDP, on the other hand, slid even further than the Tories did last week, which suggests that the party’s attempt to exploit the HST may not be working exactly as planned. That, or British Columbians have finally remembered that BC Liberals aren’t actually synonymous with the federal party with which it somewhat awkwardly shares a name.
The Conservatives are also up in Alberta — including an undoubtedly deeply appreciated 20 point gain in Calgary, because boy howdy, that was almost suspenseful for a nanosecond or two when they dropped to a mere 30 percent lead over their nearest rivals — and Saskitoba. They’ve also risen in Ontario, although not by much — seriously, 0.3 percent is officially ‘not by much’, as far as changes. They have, however, fallen behind the Liberals in the 416/905 area, which, in EKOS parlance, is referred to as ‘Toronto’.
But even as the Liberals comfort themselves over having regained first place in the GRA — although again, not by much at all — they’re down overall in the province, which doesn’t bode well for winning back many seats outside their comfort zone. Particularly in the Ottawa area, where the Tories are back on top, although not by double digits, which was the case a few weeks back. On the plus side for the Conservatives, the NDP appears to have stabilized in Ontario — they’ve even inched a fraction of a percent up, both province-wide and in Toronto, which means the splits could still work in the Tories’ favour.
Over to Quebec, where the Liberals are once again in second place, albeit barely; the Bloc Quebecois actually dropped last week, with the Liberals and the Greens sharing in the spoils.
Finally, the Conservatives continue to hold the lead in Atlantic Canada; it will be fascinating to see whether Hot Room Colleague Maher’s downdrilling on the divvying up of the stimulus package will have any effect on those numbers. It could really go either way, when you think about it — although voters in opposition-held ridings may be outraged by the apparent favouritism, they could just as easily decide that it makes more sense to elect an MP who can deliver the goods, and at the moment, that means marking an X, however grudgingly, for the candidate with the big blue C on his letterhead.
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Thanks for the analysis Kady. Good fortune in your new position.
When you add the percentages in the provinces or regions categories listed they each total 100% as expected.
When you add the percentages in the national category they total 145% ??
Is this what former PM John Diefenbaker meant when he made that comment about polls and dogs , I wonder ??
By: The Canadian Press
Date: Thursday Oct. 15, 2009 1:40 PM ET
OTTAWA — A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives continue to hold a healthy lead over the Liberals, but remain well shy of majority territory.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 35 per cent nationally, compared with 28 per cent for the Liberals.
The NDP was at 15 per cent, while the Greens and Bloc Quebecois were tied at 10 per cent.
The Conservatives jumped to a four-point lead in Ontario with 40 per cent support, and they continued to dominate in the West.
However, the Tories trailed badly in Quebec at just 15 per cent — nine points back of the Liberals and 26 points behind the Bloc.
The Liberals were ahead in only one region — Atlantic Canada — where they led the Tories by three percentage points and the NDP by five.
The telephone poll of just over 2,000 people was conducted Oct. 1-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Its the CBC. I don't think she is doing it for fortune's sake.
BLOC numbers are given as prov %. It makes sense. I think there is a disclaimer hanging around somewhere.
Still a significant chunk of "undecided" voters. If some of them make up their minds, it can make or break a frontrunner's fortunes. I agree that Mr. Dion's successor, Mikhail Igneutiev, has made no uptick whatsoever on the LPC's popularity chart. They truly have fallen out of favour with the Canadian voting public, for sins past, an undefined present, and an apprehensive future. They have provided no clear alternative to the steadily flourishing CPC, which may convince more of the current undecided to put PM Harper's administration decidedly over the Big M threshold.