Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

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Have a lovely convention, Premier

by Paul Wells on Friday, November 6, 2009 10:23am - 44 Comments

Wildrose Alliance party has captured nearly all of a precipitous Progressive Conservative decline in Alberta, new poll says. Wildrose is now the leading party in Calgary.

Dept. of caveats we surely don’t have to throw in by now: polls tell us interesting things about the recent past and nothing about the future. Mario Dumont’s Action Démocratique used to perform like gangbusters between elections too. Blah de blah blah blah. Heck of a year Wildrose is having, though.

Tags: Alberta, Stelmach, Wildrose Alliance

More by Paul Wells

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

Cons/Stelmach have got to be worried that their time is up, their thirty years or so of existence is coming to end. Hopefully Wildrose does well because it should keep Fed Cons more on the straight and narrow.

Also Danielle Smith is easy on the eye and it won't be a bad thing if she's in the news more often.

Mike T.

It's easier to ignore crazy extremists than the middle of the (admittedly kinda crazy) field. The only reasons the fed cons might not be able to ignore the Wild Rose more than it can ignore the provincial feds is that it might not be possible to ignore Alb. any harder :)

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

why would harper want to ignore more fans -> don't you get it the wildrose are harper fans

RDB

Just so I can hopefully be first – “Danielle Smith is easy on the eye” – SEXIST!
Foreigner

Just so I can hopefully be first – "Danielle Smith is easy on the eye" – Dumb comment.
http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

Daniel Smith was interviewed about her recent success and she spent most of the time praising harper and the best part was actually said out loud that she believes if he had a majority things would be different and was all nice nice warm and fuzzies to the PM – intersting isn't

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Two things –

1. She knows that Harper does support economic liberty, whatever he may have gotten up to in a minority parliament.
2. It's worth her while to make sure that the federal Tories are neutral in this Albertan fight.

http://nottawa.blogspot.com Mark

I have a theory – one of the fundamental pillars of what we might call Alberta Conservatism is that they have to hate government somewhere. These are people who essentially have to blame someone or some thing. They can't go two years without being angry at someone in power. Usually the finger points readily at Liberal Ottawa or Eastern urbanites or some such straw man. Whenever there are Conservative governments in both Ottawa and Edmonton, something eventually has to give. Last time around, Murloney was an easy target – he may have been elected a Conservative, but soon he was a Quebecer with a sales tax, etc. and soon those restless Albertan Conservatives were beating the Reform Party drum.
This time around, the PM in Ottawa, is (still) one of 'their own', so the more available target becomes Ed Stelmach.
Poor bugger. This likely doesn't end well for him.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"one of the fundamental pillars of what we might call Alberta Conservatism is that they have to hate government somewhere."

This is interesting theory. I am not in Alberta but are Albertans getting sick of Fed Cons being Libs in Con clothing yet?

I hope Wildrose will make people think more about how they are not at all happy with Fed Cons.

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

strange idea – you need to lookup some information as the Wildrose are falling all over themsleves to be nice to harper as he is in the catbird seat – and ther is no doubt about this!

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

I have no doubt Wildrose people are being kind to Federal Cons. However, if Wildrose continue on their trajectory and do happen to win next election, Albertans will have a much more conservative government provincially. Then they will look at Fed Cons with their $50+billion deficits, massive yearly spending increases, doing little to appease social cons … etc and will wonder about value for money/votes.

The contradictions will be heightened and Fed Cons will feel some pressure to appear conservative.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Check out Mansbridge's interview with Ms. Smith (a clip was shown on At Issue last night). She clearly offered an olive branch to Harper.

YSP

There's really two very different strains of Alberta Conservatism. There's the Hayek-inspired libertarians who made up the Reform party. There's a lot more of these kind, and they vote with their pocketbooks as well as their ballots. Then there's the Oil Neoconservatives, who like big government as as it's their kind of big government. There aren't as many of these guys, but they vote with their oil company's pocketbooks.

What's probably happening is that the Reformer types are finally noticing after a few decades that the Alberta Conservatives are neocons and really have less in common with Reform ideals than the Liberals & NDP, but haven't figured out yet that Harper is the big daddy neocon.

Anon Lib

jolyon – Who do you think would look better in a bikini: Danielle Smith or Sarah Palin?
Andrew (not Potter or Coyne)

I’m happy if nothing else that Alberta may at some point see some semblance of democracy.

Dakota

Yes, because Toronto has such a diverse political landscape….wait….aren't they all Liberals?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

Toronto would benefit from a larger semblance of democracy as well.

The difference is the prevailing Liberal preference in Toronto is tempered by Ontario, which has many ridings and many voters swinging between the Libs, Cons and NDP both federally and provincially. Something that just isn't seen in Alberta.

So apples and oranges.
http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

It's really kind of cute, the way you just kind of expect that people should vote Conservative. Oh wait – I said 'cute,' but I think I meant to say 'pathetically blinkered.'

Candace

As an Albertan, I get really tired of hearing people in other parts of the country (and, to a far, far lesser extent, here – usually those voting for the opposition parties) saying that Alberta is not democratic.

Every election, those interested in voting, do so. That we all tend to vote for the same party does NOT make it any less of a democracy.

That the ruling party usually has an opposition barely into double digits does NOT make it any less of a democracy.

Even when the reigning premier decides that the Leg only needs to sit for 6 weeks a year (since everything just gets pretty much rubber stamped, see minimal size of Opposition), still does NOT make it any less of a democracy.

People tend to get the government they vote for. That Alberta has a rather strange history of voting one party into power for decades at a time (and so far, never inviting a once-governing party back to power) is true, but doesn't make the province any less democratic than any of the other provinces.

So get off the "non-democratic" horse, it's dead and frankly, wasn't ever alive to start with.

Holly Stick

You don't understand what 'democracy" means, do you? Speaking as one Albertan to another.

Candace

from dictionary.com:
de⋅moc⋅ra⋅cy
/dɪˈmɒkrəsi/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [di-mok-ruh-see] Show IPA
Use democracy in a Sentence
See web results for democracy
See images of democracy
–noun, plural -cies.
1. government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system.
2. a state having such a form of government: The United States and Canada are democracies.
3. a state of society characterized by formal equality of rights and privileges.
4. political or social equality; democratic spirit.
5. the common people of a community as distinguished from any privileged class; the common people with respect to their political power.

Do we or do we not have a free electoral system in Alberta?
Are human rights not formalized here?
Political/social equality – well for crying out loud, the province has gone from 2,000,000 to >3,000,000 in the past decade and we're STILL voting in one party with a huge majority. What do you suggest, that we force 1/2 of the population of Toronto to move to Alberta?

See above "…people in other parts of the country (and, to a far, far lesser extent, here – usually those voting for the opposition parties)…"

Just because the party you voted for isn't in power (if that's the case), you don't get to say the PCs got in "undemocratically."

http://intensedebate.com/people/canucklehead canucklehead

I have a book which I believe is about or by Peter Lougheed (start of the PC run for non-Albertans) and it was suprising, but he noted that the average proportion of the vote for the opposition was almost exactly the same as in other Canadian provinces. At that point at least it had just been much more splintered. I don't know if it's been different since then, but Klein barely won his first election.

It certainly seems to be effective. A democratic jursidiction that actually pays off it's debt is pretty rare… I think the PC's under Klein had one of the most successful fiscal runs in democratic history and it probably had a lot to do with not having pressure to buy votes. Although it would be interesting to know how many Alberta Tories would be willing to say the same thing about Jean Chretien's time in power.
Foreigner

"As an Albertan, I get really tired of hearing people in other parts of the country…"

What a shock.
keith c

well said Candace! people are lazy thinkers out there.
The inability of the Libs to make any gains in Alberta is amazing given they failed to learn the lesson of their own history: Decore almost beat Klein because he ran to the right of him. The Alberta Alliance's success may be better understood as Calgary vs Edmonton Ed, rather than a right-left story. North-south, farming/rural-urban oil is the true cleavage and tension in Alberta, much like federalist-separatist is in Quebec. I expect Paul Wells to be smart enough to explore this idea in time.

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

It sure is weird reading posts by people analyzing Alberta politics that are so obvioulsy by people who have no experience with the Province. Alberta, BC and for the most part the NWT are different than other regions and one of the particularly interesting characteristics is that of partys gaining power holding it for a very long time then an off shoot of the party separates gains momentum then takes over the parent party from the outside – I rarely saw this from my birthplace Ontario and experience with Quebec and I am unsure as to the East Coast provinces but out west here this is not a new thing at all in point of fact it is to be expected!
John (The Other)

Alberta ought to separate and join the U.S. Call it "North Montana" and make Calgary the capital, but rename it Diane (after Ablonczy) to match the feminine Helena, capital of "South Montana". Stephen Harper can be governor.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Given the mood in Alberta, I wouldn't be surprised if "Special Ed" gets less than 2/3 support in the leadership review and throws in the towel.

http://intensedebate.com/people/craigola craigola

Given Premier Stelmach's track record so far, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets less than 2/3 support, but will refuse to throw in the towel.

Mulletaur

Nope, Liberals and Dippers. No Conservatives though, they are perennial losers in Toronto. And now that Stephen Harper's Conservative government is trying to abolish the long gun registry, which the police actually want maintained and which costs a pittance to operate, Conservatives will be locked out of Toronto forever.
http://intensedebate.com/people/zamprelli4731 Zamprelli

They've had a good year, and they may have a good 40 years coming up.

Alberta has followed a dynastic model of politics unseen anywhere else in the country. They've only had four parties govern, all one after the other. Every time, a brand new party comes out of the woodwork and replaces the governing party, which has grown tired and disconnected after a long, long time in power. The party getting replaced, btw, never wins again.

One of Canada's most interesting political traditions.

YSP

I'm trying to think of a right-wing party in this country that's actually survived being in power and then losing an election. Don't they usually disband, re-form with a different name, and then start calling themselves Conservatives again a decade or so later? Liberals must either have better people skills or shorter memories.

I think most non-Albertans would be surprised how tolerant Albertans are on every subject that doesn't involve politics, language, small cars or the Flames/Oilers rivalry.

http://intensedebate.com/people/zamprelli4731 Zamprelli

The Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba, Ontario, and all four Atlantic Provinces have all held power, lost it, and won it back keeping the same name same name.

Meanwhile, conservative parties who held power in B.C, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have all had to change their names before winning again.

I guess the only possible pattern is that the West likes weeping change, while the East is more comfortable with a traditional back-and-forth between two parties.

I agree most people outside Alberta misjudge Albertans, but that pretty much goes for every province. I spent four years in Alberta defending the Maritimes (where I am from) and Quebec (where Albertans thought I was from because I speak French) against Albetran misconceptions, but have been defending Alberta against the misconceptions of Quebecers ever since I moved to Montreal.

Basically, everyone needs to travel more and realize that people in other parts of the country are not quite what they assume.

keith c

Um, no. Saskatchewan is the only place where you can say a party "changed its name before winning again." In Alberta, Lougheed resurrected a very minor PC party but one that had existed since the province was created. The Social Credit party still exists in Alberta too, now reduced to a fringe group. The WIldrose folks are a new movement, so even if they win, they aren't the Social Credit party under a new name, any more than the ADQ are the new Union Nationale.
Similarly, the BC Liberals have existed since Confederation. they just absorbed much of the former Socred voting base.
keith c

also, Quebec is not especially comfortable with back and forth: it has created four significant parties since 1970: the PQ, the ADQ, the Equality Party and Quebec Solidaire. The first one regularly takes power, the latter three have significantly altered the courses of elections.

http://intensedebate.com/people/zamprelli4731 Zamprelli

The Progressive Conservatives in Manitoba, Ontario, and all four Atlantic Provinces have all held power, lost it, and won it back keeping the same name same name.

Meanwhile, conservative parties who held power in B.C, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have all had to change their names before winning again.

I guess the only possible pattern is that the West likes weeping change, while the East is more comfortable with a traditional back-and-forth between two parties.

I agree most people outside Alberta misjudge Albertans, but that pretty much goes for every province. I spent four years in Alberta defending the Maritimes (where I am from) and Quebec (where Albertans thought I was from because I speak French) against Albetran misconceptions, but have been defending Alberta against the misconceptions of Quebecers ever since I moved to Montreal.

Basically, everyone needs to travel more and realize that people in other parts of the country are not quite what they assume.

Calgary Junkie

During the WRA Leadership race, Danielle sent out a letter to her supporters, listing 10 people who endorse her, many with some connection to Harper (via University of Calgary or Reform).

I'd say the biggest mistake the PCs made was taking their base for granted. At the time of the PC leadership race, Paul Hinman said that, if Ted Morton became PC leader, the Wildrose and Alliance Parties would fold up. I suspect that a lot of trouble-makers joined the PCs temporarily, just to vote for Stelmach.
Steve Smith

I'm a left-leaning Albertan with no party affiliation who in recent years has generally voted Green federally and NDP provincially, just so you all know where I'm coming from.

Some observations:

First, the WRA's recent performance mirrors almost exactly the performance of the P.C.s leading up to Lougheed's 1971 win: win a single seat, lost it next election, get a new seat in a by-election. Next step would be to become official opposition next election, which looks likely at the moment.

Second, the P.C.s are only barely clinging together at the moment. Sustained weakness in the polls as the next election comes closer will result in at least a handful of their MLAs crossing the floor.

Third, it will be interesting to see how the WRA manages to keep different branches of conservatism. Paul Hinman, the only WRA member ever to sit in the legislature (anybody about to "correct" me by mentioning Gary Masyk had best think a little before doing so), is (despite his Calgary constituency) a rural, devoutly religious, socially conservative farmer who has no time for gay marriage or abortion. Danielle Smith is a strongly pro-business libertarian-leaning urbanite who thinks that the government should stay out of people's bedrooms and uteruses. Reconciling the two is no different a challenge than most conservative parties in Canada face, but the WRA, unlike most conservative parties, has company on the right in the form of the P.C.s.

Fourth, I find it kind of amusing that the NDP is only 1% ahead of a party that doesn't even exist.

Holly Stick

Danielle Smith wants to defund abortions, thus denying women our right to health care and going back to the days when rich women bought abortions and poor women used coathangers and bled to death.

Smith's position is not libertarian nor is it socially progressive; it is an anti-abortion wedge position.

Steve Smith

I certainly never suggested that it was socially progressive, but I do think it's libertarian: if a woman wants an abortion, it's not the government's role to either forbid it or pay for it.

Note that this is not my position on abortion, but I do think it's a libertarian one.

Holly Stick

That is assuming that libertarianism means you oppose public health care. Which means you can't get elected in Alberta unless you lie that you will preserve public health care.

keith c

this is a good post. WRA will prove at least as fractious as the Tories under pressure if not more so. Look at what happened to the ADQ with no Dumont. The protest vote, because that's all the WRA is really, needs a strong leader and I'm not entirely sure if Smith is that. The pressure will lead the Alberta Tories will get their act back together either under Stelmach or someone else, much like Charest did in Quebec. Are PC MLAs there really insane enough to defect to such a one woman show?

Steve Smith

"That is assuming that libertarianism means you oppose public health care."

Um, yes. Opposition to public health care would clearly be a libertarian position.

What exactly are we arguing about?
EdB

Wells thinks the polls are an aberration because the same thing happened in Quebec with the ADQ.

But the circumstances are quite different. We only had one party in Alberta, it has been in power virtually forever, and it has Stelmach as leader. It is becoming more and more liberal. Albertans increasingly want an alternative. We are not monolithically P-C, we are conservative. Danielle Smith brings a reasonably conservative position to Wildrose which is what most of us want – not the extremists like Morton, who made Stelmach possible.
Tom

I don't understand all the geographical fighting in many of these comments. Alberta is not superior to Ontario or the East and vice versa. Enough with all the bickering.