Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

The bucket defence: the mystery solved

by Paul Wells on Thursday, November 19, 2009 4:45pm - 24 Comments

And now a confession.

Like a million years ago, when This Week With George Stephanopolopili was still This Week With David Brinkley, George F. Will produced a critique of somebody’s tortured logic. The fellow’s arguments were contradictory and inconsistent, Will said, and in my memory — recall that this must have been more than 20 years ago, probably while I was still an undergraduate and thus, Sunday falling when it does in the week, perhaps hung over — he called the argument a “bucket defence.” I have remembered the argument fondly, albeit vaguely, ever since, so I used the term yesterday in response to the Conservatives’ shameful forest of stupid rebuttals to Richard Colvin’s deeply disturbing testimony about treatment of prisoners in Afghanistan.

But the thing is, I have googled “bucket defence” many times and got nowhere. Maybe I dreamed the whole thing.

Today a reader of Parker Donham’s blog solves the riddle. ‘[A] “bucket defence” might be more familiar to some of your readers as Freud’s “kettle logic.” However, for Freud, the defence is used when the denier has difficulty accepting the truth, not simply difficulty admitting it.’

Here’s the best account I can find of Freud’s “kettle logic.”

“In the first place, he had returned the kettle undamaged; in the second place it already had holes in it when he borrowed it; and in the third place, he had never borrowed it at all. A complicated defence, but so much the better; if only one of these three lines of defence is recognized as valid, the man must be acquitted.”

The memory of George Will on that long-ago Sunday is thus redeemed. In future I will keep using the term “bucket defence,” but you’ll all know the term is, in part, a reference to the haziness of punditological memory.

Bookmark and Share
  • kcm

    "But the thing is, I have googled “bucket defence” many times and got nowhere. Maybe I dreamed the whole thing"

    Ah but have you tried the f****t defence? Sadly it hasn't got me anywhere either.

  • Orson Bean

    Whatever you might think of his political views, George F. Will can often be one clever, thoughtful, insightful guy. To this day, I always think of this one saying of his, when he was describing essence of the American national character (in this instance, in the context of the second Bush Jr. election in 2004): "Americans are aspirational, not envious." To me, it perfectly encapsulated what often distinguishes Americans and Canadians when it comes to politics and public policy.

  • dede

    Since knowingly sending prisoners to be tortured is a war crime should not the opposition parties be making inquiries at The Hague? That would move the discussion along.

    I suppose this business could screw up the PMO's post-Olympics election plans.

  • Krojac

    As I recall, the same sort of defence and stone-walling was used back in the early '90s when the reports of AirBorne Regiment soldiers torturing Somali kids first emerged. The military had best remember how that turned out.

  • tobyornottoby

    Seems like we're using bucket logic for our climate change policy too:

    In the first place it isn't happening. In the second place unless China and India are on board we won't get anywhere. In the third place the measures this government has introduced are leading to a greener brighter future for all of our citizens.

    • Holly Stick

      Yes indeed. But many AGW denialists also suffer from the Dunning Kruger effect:

      "The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it".[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than actuality; by contrast the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to a perverse result where less competent people will rate their own ability higher than relatively more competent people… "

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Krug…

      • http://theplaceofbiff.blogpsot.com biff

        Its as if NASA wasn't forced to admit that the hockey stick graph had been debunked by Steve McIntyre,

        that ardent AGW theorists aren't stumpted by the levelling off of temperature (or dropping) when the models were predicting temps would be skyrocketing right now,

        that the artic ice hasn't gained in thickness as of late,

        that Buffa's tree ring cores didn't contain only a sample of 13, and when more were added the sample showed no historical spike,

        ect. ect.

        None of those things happened apparently, and to hear those truths makes one a "denialist".

        Holly, tell us more about how being skeptical of a theory that is being proven false with each passing year, is the result of a "cognitive bias".

        • Holly Stick

          Exhibit #1 of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Every statement biff makes is false, but biff thinks dishonest rightwing bloggers are smarter than real scientists who do real science.

          Anyone competent can check each of biff''s statements (if they can decipher the spelling errors such as Buffa for Briffa) at http://www.realclimate.org/ , where real scientists blog. Others more interested in the orchestrated campaign of lies about AGW should check http://www.desmogblog.com/ or read Jim Hoggan's new book.

          • http://theplaceofbiff.blogpsot.com biff

            “I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” – Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

            “Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical…The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system.” – Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

          • http://theplaceofbiff.blogpsot.com biff

            “For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" – Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.

            “Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” – Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.

            “The quantity of CO2 we produce is insignificant in terms of the natural circulation between air, water and soil… I am doing a detailed assessment of the UN IPCC reports and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have distorted the science.” – South Afican Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer Dr. Philip Lloyd, a UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author who has authored over 150 refereed publications.

          • Holly Stick

            Quotations are no good without proper citations and context.

        • http://theplaceofbiff.blogpsot.com biff

          Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” – UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

          “The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” – Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.

          "Real Scientists". I could post hundreds more Holly.

          • Bingo

            These socks are black…..Are they light black or dark black?

          • Orson Bean

            And then there are these "real scientists" — I mean, it's not like a scientist would ever fudge, obfuscate, delete, cover up, etc., in order to promote an agenda . . .

            http://www.biased-bbc.blogspot.com/

      • YSP

        The media wing of the global warming movement shot itself in the foot when they choose the term "global warming" instead of "climate change". Now we have to explain the difference between arithmetic mean & standard deviation. Most of the theories predict insignificant change to the mean, but a big change in the standard deviation.

        Or the extreme weather could be a sign of imminent apocolapyse.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

    So those of us who are skeptical of AGW are arrogant unskilled incompetents, while you and those who agree with you are highly skilled and simultaneously humble?

    Got it.

    • Anonymous

      "So those of us who are skeptical of AGW are arrogant unskilled incompetents,"

      Depends on what is motivating your scepticism. Is it a body scientific evidence that points to alternative explanations or is it something else?

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

    Wells, are you sure this isn't just kettle logic applied to your use of the bucket defence? Why, it's a Freudian double down. Just work your mom in there somehow, and you've got a trifecta on your hands! :)

    • Dot

      Dear Liza?

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

        Sometimes a hole is just a hole…

  • Orson Bean

    And not just that — you must unquestioningly agree and assert that carbon emission cuts as specifically mandated by the Kyoto Protocol are the only possible solution to the problem. No other solution is possible or capable of even being considered. If you don't believe this, you're stupid.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

    George Will is great. I hardly agree with his politics but he's great with the quips and he often has a remarkable clarity of thought to his arguments.

  • Wibblee

    What about the Bart Simpson defence? I think it wen something like:
    1) "I didn't do it", 2) "If I did do it, you can't prove I did it", and 3) "If you can prove it, he started it".

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/andrewcoyne Andrew Coyne

    Maybe you've conflated "kettle logic" and "bucket list"?

From Macleans