“The agreement was sold that way, and I think a lot of Colombians believed that there would be a greater chance that the U.S. would respond,” says Shifter. “That it would be like NATO. The U.S. might or might not, but there is nothing in the agreement that obliges them to.” Nonetheless, he predicts that with or without the agreement, “I think if it was clearly an aggressive act by Chávez, the U.S. would come to Colombia’s aid. It wouldn’t stand by. The U.S. would be forceful in trying to stop the hostilities.”
Noriega, the former Bush administration official, doubts whether Obama would have the “stomach” for a military entanglement in Latin America. But the prospect of one is enough to make countries already apprehensive about the U.S.-Colombian deal even more nervous. Indeed, a major problem with the agreement seems to be the way it was rolled out—with insufficient explanation and assurances to neighbouring nations such as Brazil to counter concerns and opposition. “There wasn’t any sinister motive here, but it was badly managed by both the U.S. and Colombia,” says Shifter.
The Obama administration has so far reacted to Chávez’s bluster by calling for international mediation to help Venezuela and Colombia resolve their border troubles. “We are very much aware of recent tensions along the Venezuela and Colombia border,” said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. “I certainly don’t think this is about the United States, but we certainly would encourage dialogue between Venezuela and Colombia and a peaceful resolution of the situation along their border.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to make a trip to the region soon, with a particular interest in shoring up relations with Brazil.
So far, Chávez has rejected the idea of dialogue. This week he called his Colombian counterpart Uribe a “mobster” and said there was no possibility of negotiations with the “treasonous” government in Bogotá. He added, “He will be considered by history to be a disgraceful leader who turned his homeland over to the Yankees.”
Noriega says there should be more international pressure on Chávez, and more support from U.S. allies for America’s role in Colombia’s war on narco-trafficking. “I think, frankly, the U.S. should step forward and—with its neighbours, not the least of which would be Canada—say everybody needs to recognize the U.S. has a tangible relationship with Colombia and interests there,” he says. Noriega adds that the Obama administration should do more to “call attention to the threat that Chávez represents, and put some of our neighbours on the spot to take a position on these things before it’s too late and punches start flying.”
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