Colby Cosh

Colby Cosh

Colby Cosh

Maclean’s man in Edmonton writes about everything. Follow Colby on Twitter: @colbycosh

Norwich, we have a problem

by Colby Cosh on Wednesday, November 25, 2009 3:28pm - 427 Comments

I can’t say I am spectacularly surprised at the emerging scandal over private e-mails obtained from the servers of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, which is at the heart of the process that produces IPCC reports on climate change. Some of the controversial practices revealed by the leaked e-mail corpus, such as fidgeting with visual presentations of statistics in order to make them as impressive and sensational as possible, are just evil habits that nonetheless form part of the standard operating procedure of applied science. But others—ignoring requests for data sets from one’s scientific adversaries, playing politics with scientific editorial boards, denouncing criticisms as not being peer-reviewed while working behind the scenes to ensure that those same criticisms are shut out of the peer-reviewed literature—were already known parts of the climate-panic industry’s playbook.

The CRU e-mails, whose veracity has so far held up to intense worldwide scrutiny and been generally confirmed by the University of East Anglia, reveal top IPCC contributors to be supercilious, inquisitorial, paranoid, nasty, thuggish, hypocritical, and, in general, trapped in an echo chamber of very modest dimension. If you didn’t already have a sense that all of this was true, you haven’t been paying close enough attention to the debate.

If, on the other hand, you instinctively think that “Climategate” isn’t going to be a big deal in the long run, I would suggest contemplating the very earliest reactions of the climatology nerds at ClimateAudit.org, the global-warming skepticism site edited by Canadian researcher Stephen McIntyre (who is mentioned dozens if not hundreds of times in the CRU e-mails as a particularly intractable bête noire). In the hours immediately after the CRU leak, many members of the Climate Audit community, confronted with evidence of malfeasance and scumbaggery by the scientists who have been attacking skeptics as lunatics and astroturfers for two decades, at first reacted with… well, skepticism. And, in some cases, even sorrow. Sample quotes from the comment thread:

  • An ideological hacker smart enough to hack CRU is smart enough to manufacture a bombshell or two and seed it amongst the rest of the data. Treat “too good to be true” material with a lot of caution initially from such a source.
  • Folks I would run, not walk, away from this as quickly as possible. To think they would be stupid enough to not cover their tracks on this is not credible IMO. While parts are likely real, some could be added as embellishments meant to create the furor it is already creating in the skeptic community. Let’s not make any judgements on the authenticity until we are sure what we have here is real and not a plant.
  • I find this really quite shocking and distrubing. I mean it is one thing to think that such subversion is going on; it is quite another thing – if this is all undoctored – to read it. I don’t know whether to be elated (as a skeptic) or a little sad that this will reflect badly on science regardless.
  • I have concerns like others that this entire archive may be a “spiked” version of an otherwise legitimate (hacked) archive …but much of my concern is driven by the fact that I assume that things can’t be this blatant.

More such examples could be cited. The point is that the skeptics suspected the contents of the CRU leak were too “good”—that is, too damaging to the cause of the global warming hypothesis and the IPCC—to be true. It now seems nearly certain that they are true. Under the circumstances, what George Monbiot calls “climate rationalists” can hardly maintain a posture of indifference and dismissiveness. Monbiot himself, displaying a courageous spirit of openness that his critics may not have anticipated, has been arguing as much: but voices of agreement on his side of the debate are so few that he admits “I have seldom felt so alone.”

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  • Jens Andersen

    I also believe the upshots of Climategate will trounce a few unwary politicians. Couldn’t believe the provincial (cabinet minister?) on Rutherford show yesterday, platituding about carbon sequestration as usual, as if nothing had happened. Rutherford himself seemed slightly incredulous. Intellectual non-life in Canada, I tell ya…

  • Jens Andersen

    “The best thing about the 18th century was that it put science above metaphysics for all time” — HLM

    Now will you blithering metaphysicians take your hobgoblins somewhere else, please an thank you.

  • RagingRanter

    In case no one has linked to this yet, here is an article in Der Spiegel where several of the world's most prominent climatologists admit that it has not warmed at all in the past ten years, and that this represents a major flaw in their climate models. Yah, I know, Der Spiegel is a right wing "denialist" rag, but humour me will you?

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,…

  • TedTylerEzro

    I also do think that civic cultic rituals were pageants, and than many people didn't take auguries seriously. Especially auguries, given the fairly open nature of bribes being given for good ones. Mystery cults were another kettle of fish of course, but those weren't the same as the civic religion.

    As for your last paragraph, that's just Hegelian bull about how our consciousness has evolved onward and upward through zeitgeist. It is an attitude towards history that has been falling into increasing disfavour as the information technology revolution allows easier sharing of sources so that historians aren't allowed as much to make up whatever historical constructs flatter themselves.

    We have always been the same individuals as we always were, with the same stone-age brains. I see little evidence that we are less prone to superstition in this day and age if you have a basic education in critical thinking. What is more, even if you did believe in superstition, there is no reason to believe the claims of the Church itself.

    As for the first Christians, they had their philosophers and learned men among themselves just as they had their slaves and unlettered poor. That's why you have references to the logos in the Gospel of John, and why the letters of Paul are so rich with references to philosophical ideas. That is not the only evidence of Greek philosophy in the bible, and there are many other Church fathers and episcopal leaders were were well versed in philosophy.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

      You have a talent for asserting things without evidence. When did the Greeks or Romans ever try anybody for impiety? There's the case of Socrates, of course, but I can't, off the top of my head, think of another. And in any case such impiety was never related to their abstract thinking but rather to their relationship with the State religion, e.g. failure to participate in official cults.

      People didn't believe in augury because bribery was rampant . . . right. So why was bribery rampant?

      if the Christians never existed someone else would enforce social orthodoxy.

      You seem to have forgotten the crimes of Christianity, which were not brief horrors like Communism but rather systematic, entrenched, universally applauded horrors. To wit, there was no Inquisition in ancient Rome. There were no holy wars. No books were burnt on the basis of doctrine. No one was excommunicated. You, right now, for holding such views as you do contrary to the spirit of the times, would, in the 13th century, have long ago been burned at the stake; I could probably weasel my way out.

      I see little evidence that we are less prone to superstition in this day and age if you have a basic education in critical thinking.

      You certainly see little if you look in the mirror.

  • JimD

    I just want to say that this news makes me very happy. I would like to sincerely thank the hacker for (hopefully) getting the snowball rolling that ends this "debate" once and for all.

    When the alarmists started using personal attacks and fearmongering to drum up support for their cause a few years ago, I started looking into the whole C02/warming link and realized there wasn't one. Even now, when the whole thing is exposed as a scam, they still can't help but resort to calling us sensible folks names. Its really very pathetic.

  • TedTylerEzro

    Oh, and as for idolizing the middle ages, I don't think that there was a 1000 years of sweetness and light, but I don't think it was a 1000 years of dung-smeared violent ignorance either. Brilliant people can come from any age, they don't need to evolve in consciousness to culminate in what I think.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

      You seriously have Hegelianism on the brain. I'm not a Hegelian; I don't even believe in progress.

      Well, Bede is a good example, I'll admit. But you can't compare him (or any pagan except conceivably Thucydides) to the kind of open-ended historicism that came in with the German academics. They're the ones who destroyed belief in the divinity of, say, the Old Testament, for instance: no serious biblical scholar would today assert that Moses composed the Pentateuch, as was formerly believed. Don't get me wrong: I think it was better to believe in a simple, fairly seamless, mythological world-history, the kind that prevailed in antiquity and the middle ages, but there is no going back to that. Consult any scholarly journal if you want the converse of, say, the HIstoria Langobardum.

      I'd appreciate it if you didn't presume I'm ignorant of the middle ages just because I'm not a Catholic apologist à la Chesterton. Speaking of arrogance . . .

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

    I have no such "theory of the evolution of consciousness." You're being paranoid. On the other hand, ideas do matter.

    None of your examples, except conceivably Protagoras (about which we know next to nothing except for what Diogenes tells us) concern abstract intellectual speculation. Of course the persecution of any group of people, for nonconformity or any deviance, and the burning of their books are lamentable and intolerable, but I was not talking about mere persecution: I was talking about the concept of heresy, whereby a minute deviation from the official "line" is punished severely. That is one of the legacies of Christianity even today: deviate from the accepted democratic dogma even a little, and people are apt to label you a fascist. The persecution of the Christians does indeed foreshadow the Inquisition, because the Christians repudiated Roman power structures (including the state religion) holus bolus. If the early Christians had been content to make their cult one of many cults, there would have been no problem; and anyway they weren't persecuted for intellectual deviance but for deviant social practice. What I'm objecting to is the "frothing" insistence by medieval Christianity (in practice) and contemporary Christianity (in theory) on a single, unified form of intellectual inquiry.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

      Wow. With all that mumbo-jumbo getting exactly to the same place we started at, thank God I'm agnostic.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

        So, getting back to environmentalism . . .

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

          Platinum steak knives for Mitchell!

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

          Congrats, Jack!!!!

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

          Thanks, guys! But I'll be congratulating you both too before long.

          Too early to tell what it's like on this side, I'm still groping around a bit. Free daiquiris, which is nice. No overwhelming urge to join the NDP, which is a relief.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            The free daiquiris sound delightful, the lack of an overwhelming urge to join the NDP is also good news.

            But what about the special powers? Don't you acquire some mysterious superpowers when you hit triple digits, or is that just a rumour?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

            Well, I'm noticing that all my analogies are apt, my logic iron-clad, and my command of Canadian political history rather remarkable, but it may be I just never noticed all that before. : )

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            LOL. We all noticed that before, but it may just be that your already-considerable talents have been further enhanced, much like Peter Parker developed "Spidey-sense" after he was bitten by that radioactive spider.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

            This is quite similar. You can't tell via the written medium, of course, but I'm moving the mouse telekinetically.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

            What? No extra life? Bummer!

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

            What? No extra life? Bummer!

  • james

    p.s. I'm in Canada, supposedly even more removed …

  • BS is also Organic

    "The New Zealand Government’s chief climate advisory unit NIWA is under fire for allegedly massaging raw climate data to show a global warming trend that wasn’t there."

    http://www.climatescience.org.nz/images/PDFs/glob…

    Canada needs to rethink their position based on the facts coming out about the science. Given there are claims that the data has been altered changing the outcome we need to take a step back before going forward.

    I have always stated “to ensure that proper science and not the court of public opinion governs good environmental stewardship and policy development”

    We need to ensure that the environmental policies of tomorrow are not developed today through conjecture and hearsay.

    On a lighter note

    Climategate Official Theme Song

    http://www.tatumba.com/blog/archives/1304

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