Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Ekos: "Prorogue" comes from a Latin phrase meaning, "turns out people do care about process stories"

by Paul Wells on Thursday, January 14, 2010 8:07am - 117 Comments

Our their Kady has the results and analysis. The regional numbers seem odd.

A million years ago — OK, it was two weeks — I wrote about some random shopkeeper in the heart of Ottawa who’d noticed this prorogation thing and decided, all for himself, that he didn’t like the smell of it. I don’t want to attach totemic significance to that, but this week’s polls suggest the Conservatives’ own actions have been their own worst enemy.

More by Paul Wells

Tom

PMO must be shi**ng bricks this morning.

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

They can't like it, but the fact it's not causing a big swing to the Liberals likely has many thinking (and perhaps rightfully) that this will blow over

http://intensedebate.com/people/danby danby

Harper is a wily guy and IMO will succeed in getting past this. The thing is, each additional gaffe further erodes his credibility within his own party. I'm sure a lot of Conservatives must reflect on the poor judgement/eye gouging in last fall's economic statement – those poorly timed "arts" comments before the last election – the less than astute handling of the Afghan issue – and now a proroguing that has proven so unpopular. I'm sure there are MP's that silently ponder these missteps and what they have cost the party, and it won't remain silent forever, especially if a "massaged" early election returns another minority.
Further to that, the weight of government is beginning to land upon his shoulders. Defer, deflect and deny will simply not cut it ad nauseam , and he can't hide the numbers forever – Kevin Page is not alone in questioning the sunny projections. I think SH was trying to set up an election to secure a majority before events shifted the ground under his feet, much like squeezing in the last election before the economic trouble really landed.
I wonder who is standing in the wings?

http://intensedebate.com/people/PolJunkie PolJunkie

Bet you it will be the last time that it will dismiss Facebook sign-ups.

DPT

of course, (slams forehead) it's all Facebook! We ignore it at our own peril.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Harder!

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

Wells needs no fancy schmancy poll crap. Just give him a shopkeeper and some sheep entrails…

Dave

Bear scapula are much more reliable, in my experience.

http://intensedebate.com/people/TJCook TJCook

Good idea. Using shopkeeper entrails was a total disaster…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

this exchange + my morning coffee = a messy computer screen :)
http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

LOL!

Anon

A lot of the regionals may have been affected by the addition of "Other" as a choice, higher regional MOEs would explain the rest. Saskitoba (h/t ITQ) changes are probably more in Manitoba than Sask, although hardline reformers can hardly be excited about their MPs taking three months off.

Of course with Haiti now in the picture, expect to see a massive government PR effort to show "government at work."

Paul, do you have the Liberal ad spend, because they seem to be quite frequent on the radio?
http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"polls are for dogs"

Polls are certainly funny, at the very least. I am one who didn't believe prorogue would be much of an issue but I obviously did not expect the obsessiveness of msm and liberal partisans to continue banging the drum about democracy in peril. However, I still don't believe this issue is vote decider and soon enough Cons and Lib numbers will return to where they have been for the past few years.

Personally, I think it is more interesting that Cons are losing support but Libs are not really gaining. Where are those Con voters going, exactly, and are they likely to return to Cons at election time?

I wonder if Canadians are having a similar moment as Americans are – disgust with both major parties and uncertainty where to turn.

http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

Personally, I think it is more interesting that Cons are losing support but Libs are not really gaining.

No you don't. You and every other conbot have just been programmed to think and say that.

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Whether the Liberals want to admit it or not, the fact the Conservative drop is about three times larger than the Liberal gain IS a story.

http://intensedebate.com/people/robert_mccl6309 Robert McClelland

No it isn't. The story is that all three federal parties are only sitting at their core support levels. What this tells me is that proroguing Parliament is not the actual issue driving the numbers; if it were, one of the parties should be polling above their core support. The issue driving these poll numbers is the continued gamesmanship while neglecting the problems such as unemployment these voters are actually concerned about. In other words, all three parties are being punished right now for screwing around and the party that's smart enough to begin focusing on the concerns of these voters again will be the one that sees a rise in their support over the next few months.

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Not really. The Conservatives are down by double digits, that's a result of their actions the last couple of months. While I don't doubt there's a pretty significant level of disdain for all parties, it IS a story, that when the governing party falls by more than 10 points, the official Opposition isn't the main beneficiary.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Be_rad Be_rad

the thing is, they are at their usual core level of support – the base they have been able to depend upon. When the drop leads to no commensurate gain elsewhere, does it mean disaffected and likely nonvoters. if so, then it still means they maintain their vote splitting advantage. does alienating voters who sometimes say they will vote CPC and sometimes other mean that they see a tactical advantage to alienating swing voters entirely? If you accept the assumption that non CPC, mainstream voters are less ideologically committed in total, does it make mathematical strategic sense to get them out of play entirely?
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

I think you are absolutely right. If the politicians who never pay any attention to the polls while simultaneously having polls drive their entire strategy can't get from this that Canadians are fed up with politics as a game, running the country as interesting byproduct, then there is no hope for politics in Canada.

Orson Bean

Conbot = Anyone who says anything that Robert McClelland doesn't agree with.

Craig O

Why would the Liberals gain? They have nothing to do with prorogation, which I would think is half the reason the Conservatives are faring so badly here – they have no enemy, no one to blame it on, no wedge to force.

Right now those Conservative supporters are likely going nowhere, at least not quickly. But they're unlikely to return en masse to the Conservatives for the same reason former Liberal supporters are highly reluctant to go back to that party because of the sponsorship scandal. Simply put, there's a great feeling of betrayal – the Conservatives promised to be responsible and now there's a clear indication, unambiguous, that they're not.

As Wells touched on, much of the rage about the issue has nothing to do with the gritty details about parliamentary tradition or fundamental concepts of democracy that us talking avatars care about, but a sense that Conservatives are simply shirking their responsibility to the Canadian people.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"But they're unlikely to return en masse to the Conservatives for the same reason former Liberal supporters are highly reluctant to go back to that party because of the sponsorship scandal."

I hope you are correct but it remains to be seen. I think one of the many problems with our politics is people's slavish devotion to Libs or Cons – both parties do whatever the hell they want because they know the majority of the electorate will always vote for one of the two parties. Accountability or consequences have been removed from our electoral system because Canadians always vote for a Con or Lib government.

There are many parties in Canada and I would be delighted if more Canadians started to vote for fringe parties.

http://intensedebate.com/people/PolJunkie PolJunkie

"Personally, I think it is more interesting that Cons are losing support but Libs are not really gaining. Where are those Con voters going, exactly, and are they likely to return to Cons at election time? "

Here's another scenario for you. What if the Libs and the Dippers use this ridiculously long time off to work out a deal for the next election?

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"What if the Libs and the Dippers use this ridiculously long time off to work out a deal for the next election?"

Why do some people think this is possible or desirable? Lib and NDP supporters seem to hate one another more than any other pairing of supporters. And this new party or coalition: are Libs going to move left or dippers move right?

I would be delighted if this merger were to happen because I think it would be end of Liberal party.

Wascally Wabbit

Duh! Something along the lines of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"…or much more statesmanlike – Canadians deserve sound government – and if we Opposition parties put aside our partisan differences and emphasis our commonalities – we could govern under some umbrella for a protracted period of time – while the CPC self-destructs as Harper tries to hold on by his fingertips and all sorts of anti-Harper sentiments emerge from within Conservative ranks (did anyone say Tom Flanagan?)

DPT

It would add an intersting dynamic to the post throne speech/ budget discussions wouldn't it? The forces of "you didn't spend enough/you spent to much" aligned against a party in charge of a recovering economy that stands out as among the healthiest in the world. A clear choice for Canadians if you will. Then maybe we could put to rest this whole idea of "63% of Canadians didn't vote for the conservatives so we should secretly form a coalition" movement

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

The MSM and Liberal partisans reacted to a movement the people took upon themselves… the Conservative strategy of mocking Canadians concerned with 'suspending' democracy certainly did nothing to help them. Calling them the chattering class, elites and informing us that Canadians are not concerned shows that the Conservatives have not only lost touch with much of the population, but have surpassed even Liberal arrogance in office.

Hopefully the momentum will maintain. We might actually see some changes, but it is up to the left to do it as the Conservatives have shown zero interest in changing the status quo.
Lord Kitchener's Own

I obviously did not expect the obsessiveness of msm and liberal partisans to continue banging the drum about democracy in peril.

Yeah, it's shocking that people who believe that the latest actions from our government put our system of government in peril just won't shut up about it.

You may not agree with those of us who think the government's most recent contempt for Parliament is a very serious issue, but I can't see why you'd be surprised that those of us that do think it's extremely serious continue to say out loud that something needs to be done about it. I could understand you saying "I did not expect people to think this was a serious issue", but it makes little sense to me that you didn't expect people who DO think it's serious to keep "banging the drum about it". I suppose you think it's just hyperbole on our part, and that we don't really think it's that big of a deal, but we actually do, and that's why we won't shut up about it.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"I suppose you think it's just hyperbole on our part"

It is hyperbole and partisanship or else there would have been democracy in peril movements during Chretien/Martin years when they ignored confidence motions, shut down judicial inquiries before they reached conclusions and prorogued Parliament for political gain. If that didn't bother people not sure why what Harper has done gets them so wound up.

I would be happy indeed if I thought the democracy in peril crowd actually believed their rhetoric but I don't. It is just many partisans and their feverish imaginations who don't give a toss when their side does similar things as Harper has done.

I have always been impressed by Liberals and belief in their own virtue.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

I think you are in a frame of mind that everyone is either a Conservative supporter at all costs or a Liberal supporter at all costs. Just because someone disagrees with your support for proroguing doesn't make them a Liberal.

Many of us took exception to the excesses of the previous governments. Many reacted by voting them out of power. Hopefully the same happens again, because frankly a sack of doorknobs would do less damage than the Harper government.

And for the record, I have never voted Liberal in my life but have voted Conservative, back when I was young and naive. If I lived in a riding where the Liberals were competitive, I would vote for them as the lesser of two evils.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"Many of us took exception to the excesses of the previous governments. Many reacted by voting them out of power."

After three majority, and one minority, government. If people were worried about democracy/Parliament they had an odd way of showing it. I was disgusted when Martin won his minority government after it was obvious that Libs had been laundering money for years. Reward bad behaviour and you get more of it.

I don't believe Harper is doing any damage to Parliament because it was already broken. If we can survive Chretien/Martin years I see no reason why Harper is of concern.
http://intensedebate.com/people/TJCook TJCook

"I don't believe Harper is doing any damage to Parliament because it was already broken."

See, it's ok because the Liberals did it first.

At least you're consistent, jolyon.
Lord Kitchener's Own

It's like that Facebook Page the National Post was flogging that expressed indifference regarding prorogation. What no one at the NP apparently looked at was the context. The reason stated by the group for being apathetic about prorogation was that we're already essentially living in a dictatorship, and have been for years, and that all Harper's latest move has done is made that fact more obvious and plain. It wasn't so much a "proroguing of Parliament is no big deal" group as it was a "proroguing a Parliament that the government shows open contempt for and that the government is willing to utterly and completely ignore is a moot change in the nature of our all ready too far gone government".
http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

"Reward bad behaviour and you get more of it. "

Couldn't agree more, which is why it is time to stop rewarding Harper. He is expanding previous government transgressions while promising to not fall into their trappings.

Government is less accountable and transparent while being more wasteful now than when Harper won his first election. Some blame can be given to minority governments, but all the justifications are extracted from past governments for current abuses.

At what point does Harper start taking responsibility for his own abuses?
Andre

The expression "the drop that overflowed the vase" comes to mind.

Lord Kitchener's Own

there would have been democracy in peril movements during Chretien/Martin years when they ignored confidence motions, shut down judicial inquiries before they reached conclusions and prorogued Parliament for political gain.

Well, I'd go in to all of the many, MANY ways in which a minority PM proroguing Parliament on December 30th, for the second time in just over a year, after ignoring a majority vote on the floor of the House of Commons demanding that his government produce documents relevant to several ongoing investigations before Parliament, is different from anything Chretien or Martin ever did (though admittedly it's the latest move down a road we started down long ago, it's further down the road), but I'm getting sick of that. If the "Chretien did it too" crowd just can't understand the differences in context between what Chretien did and what Harper did, then fine. If people really think Chretien's prorogations were equivalent to Harper's, then for the sake of argument I'll concede that point. Given that assumption, the problem is decidedly NOT that people are complaining now that what Harper has done is a serious threat to our way of governing ourselves, the problem is that no one complained about it under Chretien.

Honestly though, the "if you let Chretien get away with it, it's only fair that we let Harper get away with it too" argument is driving me ABSOLUTELY NUTS!!! I swear, if it comes out one day that Chretien once killed a man in Reno just to watch him die, the Tories are going to INSIST that Harper be allowed to fly to Reno to kill a man as soon as is practically possible.

http://intensedebate.com/people/moonvest moonvest

According to partisan Conservatives, the media and Liberal partisans are obsessive about everything: Lisa Raitt, Wafergate, "death by a thousand cold cuts", In and Out, Cadman, etc. Why is this issue sticking when those ones didn't?

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Well, the substance of the critique does matter, at some level.

This one's a real issue…
Canuckistanian

straw that broke the camel's back

Havey

I think we are a long way from concluding that voters care about porogation. Harper still beats everyone – by a wide margin – on leadership metrics. And despite being called every name in the book, including a dictator, the Liberals can only manage a 1.5ppt increase in intention. Come on, the real story is still the Iggy flop.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

Here's a different way to look at it from Susan Delacourt's POV this AM, which I think is relevant to parts of your comment:

Journalists had been expecting this, because of a less-scientific survey method, based on comments to blogs and websites over the last week or so. The simple science is this: the nastier and more juvenile the comments, the more trouble the Conservatives are probably facing. In my occasional role here as comments moderator, I've realized that the appearance of certain lines of attack (some of them unpublishable) are a sure sign of panic. It's like that old rule of political reporting — if a politician or a flak says to you "that's not a story," it probably is. And if critics are going to ferocious and personal lengths to tell you that no one cares about Parliament being shut down, well, you can probably figure that people do care.

Havey

Thanks for the link. Susan is a good writer and she often has very smart things to say. It made me think the Cons under Harper have no sense of proportionality. They try to kill every fly with a hammer…which might be a weakness worth exploiting for the Libs?

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

"Harper still beats everyone – by a wide margin – on leadership metrics"

So did Ed Broadbent.

Dave

Oh, snap!

http://intensedebate.com/people/doug_rogers doug_rogers

Are you still beating your metrics?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Andrew_not_PorC Andrew_not_PorC

Usually the CPC are their own worst enemy. Reminds me of their most inopportune arts funding cuts right before an election.
http://www.google.com/gwt/x?q=Sand+and+ice+fanfarlo+lyric&hl=en_US&resnum=2&ei=_aROS-gHyc2AB7ytn8sC&sa=X&oi=blended&ct=res&cd=2&ved=0CP___________wEQ____________ATAC&am I WANT MY NAME BACK

There fierce battle among Toronto neighbours for control of process. “100% Park”. By the end, there was only 5% park.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

Who can say, but my guess is that prorogation made the PM look weak, and weakness polls badly.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jack_Mitchell Jack Mitchell

Who can say, but my guess is that prorogation made the PM look weak, and weakness polls badly.

James Connors

Weakness may be part of the equation but my guess is that trustworthiness is the issue in play here.

I think the situation has finally reached the point where only card carrying CPC members and their water-carriers dare turn their attention away from Harper for fear he will – in political terms – stab you in the back; figuratively or literally.

When the term Deceiving Stephen becomes as familiar as Tricky Dicky . . . I think we'll all be able to wave a fond farewell to Harper's control-freak administration.
http://intensedebate.com/people/DerekPearce DerekPearce

Well, I was going to say it makes him looks scared, which I guess is a form of weakness too.

common man

The Liberals here continue to get giddy as they read Kady and Delacourt`s analysis of a single poll, kinda like Maple Leaf fans calling in to a radio show after their team has won two gamees in a row.

There will be no long term issue with progration because the previous parliament was full of misbehaving Liberals just hungry for power. Who needs more of that ?

There will be no Public Inquiry on Afghanistan. The Public don`t think an Inquiry is needed to know that communication between Liberal or CPC gov`ts and our Army in a foreign country does not move at lighting speed.

There will be no Election this Spring because the polls will go back to high 30`s for CPC and mid 20`s for Liberals and will probably stay there for years.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

The previous parliament was a Conservative government, if memory serves me. If you're actually talking about the Martin government, that was two leaders ago.

Polls indicate a fairly strong desire for an inquiry. How do you assess the public mood?

On what do you base your long term polling predictions?

common man

I meant the fall sitting of 09. The memories that people have of that session are of hysterical opp. members screaming at gov`t members about a seasonal flu and a wartime incident 4 years ago.

Public Inquirys are wanted by the Public when they feel there has been serious misbehaving by public officals ( Somalia or Sponsorship ). The testimony of a sensitive diplomat about one foreign national being mistreated by another after being handed over by a Canadian soldier is just not enough to warrant the public flogging of any party.

Any predictions I have are strictly based on my own entrails.

http://intensedebate.com/people/DerekPearce DerekPearce

"a wartime incident 4 years ago." And that attitude is why this whole mess began. Much like the proroguation issue itself, people (who aren't conbots) aren't willing to readily dismiss the torture/detainee issue so casually.

common man

But it was a wartime incident 4 years ago and when Liberals realize that they will drop this attempt to make themselves look good while trying to paint Canada as some kind of war criminal.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

3 polls, actually. And all polls have shown the Cons sliding since October.

But your prediction on that the prorogation is not a long term issue is as valuable as… your prediction that prorogation would not be a short term issue and Canadians didn't care.

common man

I think you will probably see any discontent towards the CPC disappear over the next few weeks. In a way I would like if Harper would explain why a bickering Parliament makes the country and our Armed Forces look indecisive and weak, but that`s not his style. So instead the Gov`t will probably get back into favour with the public by acting decisively and appearing strong in handling everyday gov`t business.

http://intensedebate.com/people/DerekPearce DerekPearce

But every time the PM makes an annoucement or an appearance it will remind people that he's not in Parliament, and thus not "handling everday gov business."

common man

For you everyday gov`t business may be answering over and over again the same question from the opp. in the House but the public appreciate more a gov`t in charge of the national economy and acting decisively and swiftly when there is a catastrophe like in Haiti.
http://intensedebate.com/people/DerekPearce DerekPearce

Actually the public appreciates a government that can manage the economy, react swiftly to disasters, and still manage to be answerable to Parliament all at the same time. If they can't manage that then what good are they?

some thoughts

You miss the point. Trust is like virginity: once it is lost you dont get it back. What is important is not the individual issue but the pattern over time and for Harper the problem is probably irreversible. The attempts to justify prorogation have made him look indecisive and weak to the point where even Tom Flanagan puplicly contradicted him. He is probably down to the core conservative vote (30%) and is unlikely to decline futher . The one remaining bright spot for Harper is the fact that support for the liberals has only improved moderately to 30% but with Ignatieff seeming to be more focussed and having better staff there is a much greater probability that Liberal support will increase than that Conservative support will increase.
Orson Bean

I have no comment on the political content or merits of your post, but would just like to congratulate you for finding such a creative way to mock Leafs fans. Kudos!

common man

Like shooting ducks on a pond.

Jan

Are you the official 'common man'? I know I didn't vote for you. And I don't remember Harper appointing anyone. I'm just wondering how you received your mandate.

Orson Bean

It's the same process by which the NDP constantly refers to itself as the representative of "ordinary Canadians". It's really simple. You just appoint yourself. No mandate required.

http://nottawa.blogspot.com Mark

You have to wonder if this negative reaction is giving Harper pause to reconsider the idea of stacking the Senate tomorrow, as was his original plan.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

I think the answer is pretty obvious – entrails of some sort.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

Interesting, I hadn't thought of that…
Craig O

I don't see why it would. Harper's power at all costs strategy has been pretty consistent, stacking the Senate plays right into that and he's already bearing the brunt of the negative reaction from prorogation. He already paid the price, why would he not accept the rewards?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Nich Nich

The final bill may not have been tallied yet.

http://intensedebate.com/people/SeanStok SeanStok

One advantage of keeping one's head planted firmly up amongst one's own…
http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

The polls are very interesting to me and confirm my sense of the "mood" of Canadians.

We don't like it when government's so blatantly try to take advantage of of our complacency. We don't like arrogance in government or a government that goes too far in avoiding accountability. That was the message in 2004 and 2006, after all.

At the same time, we are not convinced by the alternatives. Yet. Ignatieff's numbers have stabilized and even risen slightly over the last two months.

But he has to provide Canadians some reason to vote for him . The bar is set lower for opposition parties: you or just need to show us you won't be worse than the current government (see Conservatives – 2006 Federal Election).

The opportunity is there for you Mr. Ignatieff.
Riley Hennessey

Yes it sure is game over for the Conservatives isn't it? All that's left is for Iggy to pick up the keys to 24 Sussex. *cough, cough*.

The CPC has been up and down plenty times before, and during bad news weeks they always plummet. So this isn't new. It's not great news for Harper, but I wouldn't be measuring the drapes to Sussex yet if I were Ignatieff, and I wouldn't be breaking out the bubbly if I was a reporter for the Star either. People need to relax about polls.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tigerinexil1428 tigerinexile

Oh, Harper will come back.

In the end, it's about him, anyway… If the gov't manages to bring in a good budget, they'll recover their footing.

If he keeps on screwing around, though…

Tom

They have suppressed so many votes, they have started to supress their own.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

Here's an interesting bit from the Globe article about this poll:

"More interesting, however, is Mr. Graves’s seat projections based on the latest numbers.

If an election were held today, he says, the Tories would have only 112 seats compared to the 145 they have now. Last fall, when his polls had the Tories in majority government territory, Mr. Graves had the Harper team winning 177 seats. Now, they would see their biggest losses in Ontario, dropping to 33 from 51seats.

The Liberals, meanwhile, would make gains in Ontario, taking 60 seats from their current 38. Nationally, Mr. Graves has the Ignatieff team winning 107 seats compared to the 77 seats they have now.

———–

It's long been my suspicion that Tory support in Ontario has been exceptionally soft – it'll be interesting to see if this bears out.
Mulletaur

Politics is almost never a choice between good and bad, and almost always a choice between the lesser of two evils. Following this logic, prorogation was the lesser of two evils, the greater evil being allowing the opposition to keep raising the issue of Afghanistan detainees and torture. This makes me curious as to what else we don't know concerning the Conservatives and the Afghanistan detainee torture file that the Harper Conservative government does know which could be so damaging that they would take a risk by proroging Parliament again like this. Hmmm.

By the way, I see the media has totally lost interest in investigating Colvin's allegations further and is now concentrating instead on process and partisan gamesmanship. Chalk another one up for the Conservative brainfarttrust who have flummoxed the media and the opposition once again !

http://intensedebate.com/people/TJCook TJCook

"the greater evil being allowing the opposition to keep raising the issue of Afghanistan detainees and torture."

Hear that, everybody? The greater evil is accountability.

"…Harper Conservative government does know which could be so damaging that they would take a risk by proroging Parliament again like this. Hmmm."

Also: Harper is proroguing Parliament to save us! Poor, poor Harper, doing the good and ethical thing but unable to tell us about it because it would hurt us all.

Mulletaur

Another bitter and twisted Conservative supporter heard from. Accountability is only evil to dictators like Stevie and his supporters, like you. For the rest of us, accountability is democracy. When whatever Harper is hiding comes out, it will be very damaging indeed to his electoral prospects – hopefully he will own up to it right away rather than hiding behind the our brave troops, as he has done so far. Of course, Harper doesn't care about the safety of our soldiers, otherwise he wouldn't have allowed the military to send Afghan detainees to be tortured by the KGB-trained NDS – one of the best ways of recruiting Afghans to the Taliban and Al Qaida.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

TJCook is pretty far from a Conservative…I suspect he was agreeing with you.

Mulletaur

In that case, TJCook, please accept my humble apologies.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Another bitter and twisted Conservative supporter heard from. Accountability is only evil to dictators like Stevie and his supporters, like you.

Was this a joke, or a bid for steak knives? It's the first time I've ever seen poor TJ accused of being a Conservative supporter. ;-)

Mulletaur

My bad, see above.

http://intensedebate.com/people/janicemaerose janicemaerose

I agree that Harper chose to prorogue primarily because of the detainee issue. It does make one wonder what he's hiding; it could be a greater "evil". But I don't think the media is going to let go of the Colvin allegations. The parliamentary/democratic process stuff has just temporarily trumped this issue. We're all just waiting for parliament to resume and this detainee issue will be back in the media. Fixing parliament will hopefully stay on the government and media agenda as well, for a long time.

Mulletaur

"But I don't think the media is going to let go of the Colvin allegations."

Really ? I hope you're right, but I fear not. I would have expected reporters to keep digging and keep revealing more details in the parliamentary hiatus to keep the story on the boil politically. But that's not happening.

Dot

Would you just cut and paste her blogs, already. Mouse clicking? What is this, Facebook?
Mulletaur

Oh, and the regional numbers are weird because the poll is a complete nonsense. IVR will never give as accurate a result as operators because people are more truthful in their intentions when they are talking to somebody as opposed to punching in their choices in response to a machine voice.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Citation needed.

Orson Bean

Jeez Mulletaur, you keep this kind of insouciance up, McClelland's gonna call you a Conbot, and Holly Stick's gonna come on here and call you a Conservative Sociopath.

Mulletaur

Wheeeee !!!!
Holly Stick

Awww, that really hurt, did it? Tell you what, Orson, if you will admit that it is wrong to torture people, even terrorists, and that the Canadian government should not make its troops hand over prisoners to people who will probably torture them, I will admit that you are not a sociopath.

But there are too many rightwingers infesting the internet who say they do not care about people being tortured; or they even approve of the use of torture – and such people are sociopaths.

Mulletaur

It's abundantly clear from the poll numbers that supporters of all political parties care both about Canada handing over Afghan prisoners to be tortured and the prorogation of Parliament. It should be particularly worrying to the Conservative that their own supporters are unhappy about both of these. What is not clear at all, at least not yet, is whether these poll numbers are real, nor is it clear whether they are anything other than a temporary phenomenon. Time will tell.
Mulletaur

Ivison says it better than I could.
Orson Bean

Holly, the fact of the matter is I never said that it wasn't wrong to torture people, and I never expressed support for having our troops hand over prisoners to people who will probably torture them. What led to your calling me a "conservative sociopath" was my making the remark — which has since been backed up by polling data — that a fair number of Canadians were not likely to change their voting intentions based on that particular issue. I expressed no explicit or implicit approval of torture or the government's position. It's like if someone makes the purely factual observation that over 30% of the German electorate in the early 1930s voted for the Nazi Party, and you respond by calling that person a Nazi sympathizer. It's nuts. There are a number of people on this site who have some strange condition which results in their seeing imaginary Conbots under their beds. We may have stumbed onto some new disorder for insertion into DSM V.

hosertohoosier

The regional numbers make complete sense. Harper has done worst in Alberta, then Saskitoba, and then dipped a bit in Ontario/BC. His losses roughly correspond to the size of the old Reform base in those provinces. Reformers were big believers in democratic reform – and always used to fume when the Liberals did this kind of stuff to them. Prorogation may look like the final PC-ification of the Conservative Party to them.

Orson Bean

Only in Alberta can the Tories shed 10 points and still have a 30+ point lead over their nearest opponent. If that's "doing worst", that ain't bad.

But that's really a side observation. Prorogation has been a clear political loser for the Tories. Thing is, I don't see a way for them to dig themselves out the hole that they've dug for themselves on this issue. I'm sort of reminded of the Democrats in 1980 when they were stuck with Jimmy Carter as a candidate. Some Democratic insider sighed and remarked "I guess we're just gonna walk the plank with Carter." I guess the Tories are just going to march on with this, but I agree with those who think that some permanent, irreversible damage has probably been done to their support.

hosertohoosier

I think the prorogation reaction has been so large in part, because it has moved folks that are part of the Tory base in Alberta and BC. The Tories need to do two things when parliament gets back in session:
1. move on senate reform, now that they have a majority there
2. put forth a budget with serious cuts aimed at tackling the impending 19 billion structural deficit

By putting either or both questions out there they can change the question, regain the trust of their base, and divide the left 1988 style.

Orson Bean

Perhaps, but that's not without peril and big potholes. Budget cuts are usually terrible politics. And I don't know if I can think of any minority government that has proposed, and sucessfully implemented, any kind of a fiscal austerity program. For obvious reasons: the implementing govt usually gets severely attacked, usually suffers a drop in the polls as this happens, it's way too easy and tempting for the other parties to take the contrarian position (which means that they are unlikely to support the govt), etc. The significant examples that I can think of, in a Canadian context, where govts have implemented significant budget cuts and survived politically, have all involved solid majority governments: e.g., Klein Tories in Alberta, Campbell Liberals in B.C., Chretien Liberals federally.

Bill Simpson

I think you should go back to your shopkeeper. Like a lot of people, he is pissed at our parliament, and prorogation just seem like another dumb game. Harper seems to be wearing this in the polls, but I am betting that this tells us zero about how people may actually vote.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

It is all about the piano. Last August (I think) there was a nice story about SH and his piano playing (post some function in Niagara on the Lake). Clearly an attempt to humanize the "man". Based on the small but clearly positive results, the supreme leader of the CPC, Laureen, put SH on stage pushing the humanization towards mass hysteria. What has happened now, is simply the effect of time (SH lacked the staying power of a Susan Boyle).

So political junkies, prologue smologue, Canadas really don't give a crap about their democracy but they love their reality talent shows (or more commonly American reality talent shows).