Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

The tally

by Aaron Wherry on Sunday, January 24, 2010 1:55pm - 208 Comments

With 51 precincts reporting specific estimates—restricting the count to media-reported figures and, where available, police counts—it’s possible to account for approximately 21,000 anti-prorogation protestors at yesterday’s rallies.

Charlottetown. 150
Fredericton. 60
St. John’s 200
Halifax. 400
Truro. 20
Sydney. 80
Antigonish. 100
Montreal. 300
Ottawa 3,500
Kingston. 300
Belleville. 250
Peterborough. 400
Orillia. 220
Oshawa. 100
Whitby. 100
Cobourg. 150
Owen Sound. 200
North Bay. 100
Barrie. 200
Orangeville. 100
Toronto. 7,000
Oakville. 200
Guelph. 300
Waterloo 500
Hamilton. 350
Brantford. 50
London. 500
Stratford. 150
Windsor. 200
Sudbury. 250
Sault Ste Marie. 60.
Thunder Bay. 100
Winnipeg. 300
Regina. 300
Saskatoon. 400
Edmonton. 200
Calgary. 200
Lethbridge. 50
Kelowna. 100
Kamloops. 75
Penticton. 80
Vernon. 50
Prince Rupert. 25
Prince George. 24
Maple Ridge. 60
Nanaimo. 60
Terrace. 35
Williams Lake. 25
Vancouver. 1,000
Victoria. 1,500
Yellowknife. 30

Total. 21,004

More by Aaron Wherry

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

I am not sure why all are focusing on the numbers that came out to determine success. The reasons one would stage such a protest would be to 1) influence public opinion and 2) change future government policy and practice.

1) The protests were covered in every major (and minor) form of media in the country. Its success on may have even surpassed the legendary oily the talking oil spot.
2) The protests have poisoned the strategic prorogue for Stephen Harper.

So without question, the protests were an enormous success. I would what is next for the organizers?

http://intensedebate.com/people/LynnTO LynnTO

I'm not so sure we can discount the numbers: 200K+ in the FB group, and many more in Canada who did not join that group (but whom are nonetheless opposed to this prorogation), and an estimated 10% of that number show up to protest, somewhere in Canada.

That's what I would expect in group behaviour: about 10 to 15 per cent are the opinion leaders and the highly engaged, while the rest more passively so (not necessarily "sheeple", just more passive). So while the gross numbers are rather large, I can't agree that the protests were an enormous success – they didn't perform above expectations, merely to the average of what we see in issue engagement research. (So, good on them for having an engaged group about the size of what we see in other research, but "success" would be living up to the expectations of a more highly engaged and motivated group as it was purported to be, prior to the protests.)

My cable is spotty, so I've been unable to review the full slate of media reports on the protests (and prorogation), but to your point 1, I would argue that success in this case requires sustained media coverage. If after a week, we're still talking about the protests (beyond arguing whether 3,000, 8,000, or 15,000 showed up in Toronto), for me, that's the marker.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

It would be beyond remarkable if the protests were being actively discussed next week in the media… really what new could there be to say?

The general perception is that Stephen Harper got caught doing something wrong and sneaky. If you are partisan and connected to another party, you call it an attack on democracy. If you are partisan and a Conservative, you say Chretien did it too. If you are a media pundit, you chalk it up to Harper being too clever for his own good. My point is that none of these perceptions are good for Stephen Harper in the long run.

So what exactly did the protesters accomplish. They took a rather obscure piece of political gaming, engaged the public, educated the public, converted it into political baggage and tied it to Stephen Harper.

JamesHalifax

Ummm…folks, going over the number and coming up with a tally is not the way to go about guaging the public reaction. First…look who went to these rallies, and ask yourself if any of them are people who would have ever voted Conservative in the first place. I saw representatives from the following groups:

Coucil of Canadians
Sierra Club
Palestine House
Green Party
Young Liberals
Candian Labour Congress
Greepeace
NDP'ers
Raging Grannies…etc…etc….

Face it…these folks would have shown up if there was a facebook group demanding Stephen Harper change his hairstyle. (I'm sure Warren's working on it)

This was just a media created protest. they can pat themselves on the back, but the fact remains….these are folks who would never vote for Harper no matter how well he did.

The protest was 98% whackjobs and opposition MP's……the other 2% were Canadian Media…..who may as well be opposition MP's given the "facts" they report vice the facts they leave out.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

Yay, another member of the "Let's crap all over civic engagement" fanclub…

Bytowner

If civic engagement opposes the ruling party's purposes – no matter who the ruling party is – then belittlement may be considered useful, if not truly necessary.

A pity.

http://intensedebate.com/people/doug_rogers doug_rogers

This article: http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2010/01/25/126… quotes an attendee as once voting Reform. I guess that's not Conservative.

Invitations were extended to all parties to attend.

JamesHalifax

One attendee? wow….what's that as a percentage of the folks who showed up?

If i had a quarter every time someone who hates harper has stated, "I used to be Conservative"……..I could buy a nice car.

The fact remains; the majority of people at these protests…….never voted for Harper to begin with, and probably never will. It was a media created event…..but don't worry, it won't be the last one.

I'm waiting for the CBC to start a facebook group calling for the "Protection of Taliban Terrorists from Candian Forces Torturers"

You will see the same folks show up…….only Ujal Dosanjh will be the keynote speaker.

http://intensedebate.com/people/doug_rogers doug_rogers

You asked, "if any of them are people who would have ever voted Conservative in the first place." I provided a reported example of at least one who might have. Reform was certainly a conservative movement. The reporter didn't have the time to interview each of the 500 estimated attendees what there political persuasion was.

I voted Conservative once.
http://intensedebate.com/people/doug_rogers doug_rogers

"If i had a quarter every time someone who hates harper has stated, "I used to be Conservative"……..I could buy a nice car."

You might also begin to ask them what Harper has done to turn them away from Conservative and why they won't vote for him. It might be illuminating. And then take their quarter.
http://intensedebate.com/people/SamDavies SamDavies

Yup – those people out there do not share my mindset, so they must be nutters.
Awesome! Just make a claim that you feel must be true, and presto – it is true!
What else does your intuition tell you?

Lord Kitchener's Own

You do realize that one could conceivably hold a rally that garnered the attendance of 55% of the entire population of Canada and STILL not include a single person "who would have ever voted Conservative in the first place".
http://intensedebate.com/people/LynnTO LynnTO

"these are folks who would never vote for Harper no matter how well he did."
"The protest was 98% whackjobs and opposition MP's"

So…people who would never vote for Stephen Harper are whackjobs now? You stay classy there, James.

JamesHalifax

Apparently I touched a nerve.

As always, folks don't like having their parade (or in this case, their Media Created rally) rained on.

As for the Whackjobs….they can be found in groups such as:

Coucil of Canadians
Sierra Club
Palestine House
Green Party
Young Liberals
Candian Labour Congress
Greepeace
NDP'ers
Raging Grannies…etc

http://intensedebate.com/people/ToryTattler ToryTattler

I seem to remember the media crapping all over the rally until it actually happened. Where were you? Mom's basement? Con war room?

JamesHalifax

No Tory…the media created a story, they didn't crap on it. In effect, the Canadian media made it an attractive proposition for people to show up and get their faces on camera, and a lot of wing-nuts did that gleefully. Apparently, there were actually TWO people there who were ticked at prorogation. The remainder were torn between their hatred of Americans, Jews, Capitalism, and Stephen Harper. Prorogation was just an excuse.

Monica

I've never been to a protest before in my entire life. I'm almost 39.
Which group do I fall under?

My husband couldn't go because he was watching our 6 month old twins so I was representing our family.
He has voted Con before but I doubt he will ever again.

And I seem to remember people being pissed off when the media told us it was no big deal or "the Liberals did it".
You keep telling yourself that the Con talking points make sense.
Gary

POST OF THE DECADE JAMES!!!

http://intensedebate.com/people/ChrisInKW ChrisInKW

Cathy MacLellan, the Green Party's energy and natural resources critic, who will run in Kitchener-Waterloo riding in the next federal election, addresses a crowd protesting the federal government's prorogation of Parliament. The protest, one of several across Canada Saturday, drew about 500 people to Waterloo Town Square.

In the caption at http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/6611…
http://intensedebate.com/people/ChrisInKW ChrisInKW

Cathy MacLellan, the Green Party's energy and natural resources critic, who will run in Kitchener-Waterloo riding in the next federal election, addresses a crowd protesting the federal government's prorogation of Parliament. The protest, one of several across Canada Saturday, drew about 500 people to Waterloo Town Square.

In the caption at http://news.therecord.com/News/Local/article/6611…

JamesHalifax

Would that be the same Cathy MacLellan who signed a petition along with other "peace" organizations decrying the Governments decision to send back deserters to the US Army? (Why yes…yes it is)

By the way…..if you were to look at this petition you would find everyone one of the groups mentioned previously are represented on this document. It has a few more signatories as well….including some well known IMAMS who say some pretty nasty things about anyone of the Hebrew nature…..oh, and a couple of 911 TRUTHERS who think Israel and George Bush orchestrated the 911 attacks.

Yep…..I think everyone should go Google Cathy's name and see the folks she hangs out with. Birds of a feather and all….

Don't worry though Chris……the Liberals had a candidate all set to run in the last election before they found out she was a TRUTHER……but at least they got rid of her. (Not because they disagreed with her mind you….so much as the media found out about it)

JamesHalifax

And yes Lynn TO……they are indeed whackjobs, if you consider whackjobs to be people who always support the wrong side of an issue simply because they only KNOW of one side.

Council of Canadians – strident anti-American lobby group opposed to Free Trade and capitalism
Sierra Club – meat is murder…stop all logging, stop producing carbon (usually headed by folks who live in large wooden houses, eat only the finest meals, and fly everywhere they go to get their messages out)
Palestine House – hate Jewish children more than they love their own.
Green Party – elizabeth May – enough said?
JamesHalifax

Young Liberals – naive wannabe's who think only LIBERAL thoughts are correct. They're mainly composed of University students, and their arguments are as complex as an onion with one layer.
Canadian Labour Congress – higher wages for less work!!! stop free trade!!! the public owes us something!!! Capitalism sucks…..but don't ask me how it works.
Greenpeace – no cause too small to raise money from
NDP'ers – Jack layton -enough said
Raging Grannies – ex socialist,anti-american, anti-Israel hippies too old to throw rocks, but strong enough to hold up signs for their latest cause…which, is a combination of everything described above.

Sorry LynnTO…..being from Toronto, you probably do think Americans are bad, Israel is evil, and capitalism sucks….so guess which category you would fit in according to my world view? And I would suggest, that you voted for your current lame-duck idiot of a mayor as well. In fact, you probably think he's doing a bang-up job right?

Go drink your latte.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Sorry, the new URL you posted is the same as the old one… same error.
Lord Kitchener's Own

lol 7,000
http://intensedebate.com/people/ChrisInKW ChrisInKW

How very odd. IntenseDebate is appending an extra anchor close tag to the URL of the link. Sorry for that and my previous 'dictator' hyperbole. It's hard to keep a level head when such a national expression of popular sentiment is dismissed so quickly and callously.

[youtube S6OLYxcbRwE http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6OLYxcbRwE youtube]

http://intensedebate.com/people/ChrisInKW ChrisInKW

[youtube GhqdoTO_T3Y http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhqdoTO_T3Y youtube]

http://intensedebate.com/people/lgarvin lgarvin

James,

You are being naive, as well as obnoxious. I attended the rally in Ottawa. I'm not just a former Conservative voter, I'm a former Conservative donor. There were quite a few of the "usual suspects" at the rally but most of the folks I saw around me were just like me; middle-aged, white-bread, white-collar, working-stiffs. Did the crowd lean left? Without a doubt. But it was far from the collection of lazy stereotypes you've catalogued above.
Mulletaur

Your picture doesn't show anything close to 5000 people in that square.
Mulletaur

You must have been drinking something else than Starbucks hot chocolate, then. LKO's picture in no way shows anything close to 5000 people.
kcm

Aaron you missed Yellowknife…my closest. Although i didn't catch the numbers…everyone forgets the North.
http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

right. i was drinking and everyone else was ust wrong, and you have it all sorted!
JamesHalifax

Congratulations Lgarvin……..

Now, if you were to get rid of ALL the wingnuts in the groups I have just mentioned……I get the impression there would be……TWO Canadians at your rally where were mad enough to come out for the rally.

I have never said that I agree with Prorogation in general, I was pointing out the fact that these rallies were just an opportunity for the typical left-wing nutjobs and whiners to get on camera and say something bad about the current Government. As stated earlier, the subject of the protest didn't matter at all to the vast majority of the people there……..they were just looking for an excuse, and the Canadian Media and Opposition parties created one for them.
JamesHalifax

One would think that if the crowd had a larger number of average Canadians who were genuinely ticked at the Prorogation….the media would have found them. Instead, the newscasts that night had interviews with people from exactly the same groups I have outlined above. Maybe next time LGarbin….you can move your white-bread butt towards the CBC camera crew and make a point.

Be careful though…they guy behind you is probably holding a "Death To Israel" sign.
JamesHalifax

Monica, I'm sure the last time your husband voted Conservative…..it was for Brian Mulroney.

As for the media saying it was "No big deal"….the only time they have said it, was when Chretien did it.

And let's not forget….when Chretien perogued…..it was to stop the investigation into the millions upon millions of dollars the Liberal Party and their flacks were stealing from us.
Lord Kitchener's Own

I wasn't linking to the pic, I was linking to the story, and the police estimate contained therein that there were 5,000 people in the Square. As for the pic with the story, it's cut off, so based on the pic there could be a BILLION people in the Square for all we know.
JamesHalifax

This is the same Cathy MacLellan who signed a petition about American deserters (she wanted them to stay in Canada). The petition was also signed by the same groups I mentioned ealier, as well as a few nasty additions. It also had a few imams that say pretty scarey things about our Hebrew friends, as well as a slew of 911 TRUTHERS who think 911 was orchestrated by George Bush and Israel.

Yep….good company you keep in the Green Party…..but you know what they say, "birds of a feather"

(Dont' worry though….the Libs had to dump a candidate who was a TRUTHER as well)
JamesHalifax

I think folks should go Google Cathy's name…..see what company she keeps.
Mulletaur

If being a ConBot means knowing how to count, CR, count me in, so to speak.
Mulletaur

It's heartening to know that the Toronto Police Service is also against prorogation, but that doesn't change reality.

Lord Kitchener's Own

Depends upon one's point of view. I wouldn't call them supportive of the anti-prorogation rallies, because I think they underestimated the crowd by about 2,000 people.

Mulletaur

Let's face it : compared to the number of people who joined the Facebook group, the number of people who showed up to protest is very small, no matter which way you cut it. Harper was right, he knows he can safely ignore the protest movement, which, judging by those who showed up in Toronto, are in their vast majority on the left to far left and would never vote for Harper's Conservatives anyway.
http://intensedebate.com/people/lgarvin lgarvin

Maybe next time LGarbin….you can move your white-bread butt towards the CBC camera crew and make a point.

That's not my nature. I didn't carry a sign either although I was offered a few. I didn't agree with much of what I heard from the various speakers. I went to register my dissatisfaction with the Harper methodology and I did so. Also, I happened to speak to Mr. Ignatieff (very briefly) and I told him that "we need you to step it up."

Did I change the world? No. Was it worth my time on a Saturday afternoon? Most definitely.

You keep insisting on the importance of what you suppose, while I'mtelling you what I saw and did. Weigh those things however you like.

JamesHalifax

LGarvin, congrats for showing up and registering your displeasure at the prorogation. I too, am not fond of that procedure, but it was legal and the Prime Minister was within his rights. I would wonder, however, if you showed up at any rallies when Jean Chretien prorogued the House to avoid the outcry when it was discovered the Liberal Party was once again caught stealing from the Taxpayers? The media didn't create a story that time, but that was mainly due to the fact the media pretty much knew the Liberals were a corrupt Party and that they are prone to stealing.

kcm

What the hell you blathering about? I've never heard of CM, i'm not a greenie, and i wasn't at the rally. Three stikes you're out buddy. But keep at it…maybe we can pencil you in as a possible whack job can we?