John Geddes

John Geddes

John Geddes writes on politics and policy, with occasional reporting and comment on arts and culture.

The case for raising taxes

by John Geddes on Friday, January 29, 2010 3:46pm - 68 Comments

Listening to Barack Obama’s state of the union speech I couldn’t help thinking that in surveying America’s problems he was, quite inadvertently, showing us where Canada should move to entrench competitive advantages.

I don’t mean just the obvious imperative to keep up the diligent efforts of recent years to improve our already manifestly preferable health care system. There’s also the broader matter of responsible government finances—with reasonable levels of taxation.

The U.S. president spoke of inheriting a trillion-dollar federal deficit when he took office last year. Prime Minister Stephen Harper waltzed into power facing only the pleasant task of deciding what to do with multi-billion-dollar surpluses.

Obama talked of how Washington, during the George W. Bush era, failed to pay for “two wars, two tax cuts, and an expensive prescription drug program.” Ottawa shucked off the nasty habit of passing along the bill to future generations in the mid-1990s. Or so we thought.

With this year, however, comes the troubling prospect that we might follow the Americans back into the corrosive cycle of perennial deficits. Credible experts tell us that even after last year’s gush of federal stimulus spending is done, the government is on track to keep spending so much, and taxing so little— against a backdrop of such modest economic growth—that a structural deficit of perhaps $20 billion looms.

So what to do about it? The gambler hopes for stronger-than-forecast growth to churn out tax revenues sufficient to balance the books painlessly. The believer in small government pounces on this a chance to permanently shrink federal programs.

There’s another option: increase taxes. The only problem is that tax hikes are what make voters maddest. Or at least that’s what they say. I’m not so sure. What about a long wait at emergency with a sick family member? Admit it—that’s more maddening.

Or if your kid’s classroom is an overcrowded portable. Parents get pretty mad. Or if the army is being nickel and dimed on vital hardware. Everybody was mad about that. Or if potholes go unfilled. Or if our Olympic athletes don’t get enough training funds to win medals…

Come to think of it, pretty much whenever government fails to perform up to snuff, we’re apt to forget, for a careless moment, that we’re supposed to be fed-up taxpayers. Instead, we respond as citizens who want spending.

And if we want it, we have to support the taxes to pay for it. Up to a point, of course. What’s reasonable? Consider an international comparison. Add up all taxes in Canada and they amount to 33.3 per cent of gross domestic product (in 2007, the latest OECD figures). In the U.S. taxes amount to 28.3 per cent of GDP and in Britain 36.6 per cent.

So compared to the countries we might reasonably benchmark against, there’s no tax-burden problem here. Lowering taxes has been a big preoccupation in Ottawa for a decade. The Liberals introduced deep, across-the-board reductions in 2000, and the Conservatives followed with a range of cuts after 2006. Their boldest move was the two-point GST reduction, and they’ve also cut individual and corporate income taxes, for a combined $45 billion a year in foregone revenue by 2014-15.

Some of that is still to come. A key part of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s plan for making Canada’s economy more competitive is reducing the general corporate income tax rate to 15 per cent by 2012 from 22.12 per cent in 2007. For this year, the rate is 18 per cent.

Until the fall 2008 financial meltdown, and return of deep deficits in 2009, cutting corporate taxes looked affordable. Not any more, at least not according to Scott Clark, the retired former deputy minister of Flaherty’s department, and Peter DeVries, Finance’s former top fiscal planner.

They don’t think it’s needed, either. “Canada already has a lower tax rate than in the U.S., and it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will be lowering their corporate rates in the near term,” Clark and DeVries write in a cogent budget analysis made available recently to Maclean’s, as well as to the government and the opposition parties.

Freezing the corporate income tax rate at 18 per cent, rather than keeping on with the planned cuts, would bring in more than $5.5 billion a year by 2013-14, erasing more than a quarter of the structural deficit. Look at it this way: if that money isn’t reaped in taxes, any responsible government will have to cut it out of spending. And saving $5.5 billion is an extraordinarily tall order. Let’s say, for instance, you’re hard-nosed enough to freeze all public servants’ salaries. Independent economist Dale Orr estimates that will net $500 million a year.

In other words, freeze government pay—and then impose nine other cost-cutting measures of similar magnitude—and you might nearly match the fiscal impact of just leaving corporate taxes at their present competitive level. (I look at what Clark and DeVries tell us about spending restraint here.)

Less obvious, for political reasons, is an even more sensible tax option: restore those two points the Conservatives shaved off the GST. “As a matter of principle,” Clark and DeVries write, “one should look at tax changes that favour economic growth. In other words, the balance should favour less tax on income and savings and greater reliance on consumption taxes.”

Raising the GST back to where it stood not so long ago would enrich the federal coffers by about $15 billion a year. That’s enough, combined with holding fast on the corporate tax rate, to balance the books again—assuming reasonable spending restraint. This is basically the plan Clark and DeVries outline in a proposed 2010 budget (their table is reprinted below).

The fact that these two highly credible, mainstream commentators can call for big tax increases without being shouted down is itself heartening. It doesn’t work that way in the U.S., where the need to accept responsible taxation is even more acute. As The Economist observed last week, “If America keeps its distaste for taxes, it will face fiscal Armageddon.”

I don’t wish that on the U.S. Here’s hoping Obama reforms health insurance, restores fiscal sanity in Washington, and presides over prosperity. Canada always does better when the U.S. thrives.

But if Washington remains mired in policy stalemates, all the more reason to make sure Canada strengthens its position as the North American jurisdiction that’s run right. That requires balanced books again soon in Ottawa, and the tax increases necessary to make it happen.

Proposed 2010 Budget: Scott Clark and Peter DeVries
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-12 2014-15
(Billions of dollars)
A. Deficit: Parliamentary Budget Office forecast -54.2 -43.1 -27.9 -23.2 -19.0 -15.0
B. Source of Funds
1. Reduction in program expenses 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0
2. Revenue Measures
1-percentage point increase in GST 1.7 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0
1-percentage point increase in GST 1.7 6.8 7.2 7.6
Freeze general CIT rate at 18% 0.8 5.3 5.5 5.8
Other revenue-raising measures 1.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
Interest savings 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.8
Total fiscal actions 2.2 11.9 27.0 30.1 33.7
C. Use of Funds
1. Dept repayment reserve 2.2 11.9 16.9 18.9 20.0
2. Prudence reserve 10.1 11.2 13.7
3. Total 2.2 11.9 27.0 30.1 33.7
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  • http://intensedebate.com/people/madeyoulook madeyoulook

    The majority of Canadians are quite happy with raising taxes because a majority of Canadians do not contribute the majority of the tax revenues.

    One must ensure that the economically productive do not find it more appealing to go be productive somewhere else. Currently, the USA is doing a fantastic job making itself look like an economic basket case. Intelligent wealth should be fleeing the US in droves. So, in fact, I suppose there is a case to be made that higher taxation in Canada could be tolerated. My fear is that extra tax revenues will continue to support nonsense, instead of vital infrastructure, the common defense, and debt relief to give us wiggle room as the boomers all become seniors.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

      I found some 2002 info that gives these figures which sort of supports your majority of Canadians do not contribute the majority of the tax revenues statement:

      – 50% of taxfilers had incomes of $23,000 or less, and they contributed just under 5% of total revenue,
      – 10% of taxfilers had incomes of $64,500 or more, and they contributed just over 52% of total revenue, and
      – the remaining 40% of taxfilers contributed the remaining 43% of the total revenue.

      The ratio of the two income breakpoints seems to have been somewhat constant over the 1990 to 2002 time period….I have no reason to suspect that it has changed a lot since then.

      But how much blood (tax revenue) can we squeeze from the under $23,000 group? It would be interesting to get an age breakdown for that group. I suspect that a good portion are students and others who are just getting started, who will have the 'opportunity' to pay a higher rate as their income rises.

      And the middle group, the true middle class I suppose, are basically pulling their weight.

      I'm interested to find out where you would adjust those breakpoints, or if you have other comments related to the three income ranges.

      • Flippy the Bear

        OK, look around you: there are kids, students, and retirees. Numbers as in "percents of taxfilers" are meaningless.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP PhilCP

          I suspect that you are right, but some numbers (percent or otherwise) to confirm your thought would have added more to the discussion.

    • Flippy the Bear

      Your argument is stupid. Yes, the majority of Canadians don't contribute. Because if you take a typical nuclear family with two kids, there'll be at least two members who don't contribute, one member who undercontributed over lifetime due to maternity leaves and one member who fully contributed. And, yes, chances are their parents may not be contributing either.

      USA is a failure, by the way.

  • David B.

    More tax money required and the games have not begun or have they?

    Hello Google Intrwest and find all kinds of valid info wrt to failure and some interesting Real Estate deals and we start with CBC's article. And where is our government wrt to questions and answers? note not a risk- really? because some back room deal will be struck by our PM and Flaherty perhaps at taxpayer expense. Intrawest may miss debt payment: report Operates some 2010 Olympic venues, but Games not at risk Last Updated: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 | 1:36 PM ET Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/12/23/intrawes…

    Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/02/01/nypost-r…

  • JimD

    what's the secret to posting so much at once without the error message?

  • JimD

    Corporate taxes are way too low in Canada, but that's what "free trade" hath wrought. We're in a race to the bottom. The concept of "trickle down economics" is just that – a concept and nothing more. When the Bank of Canada is re-nationalized and there's still not enough money to go around (which is a practically impossible outcome), then we can talk about raising taxes.

    Very few people know enough about national sovereignty or economics to even be having this debate.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

      Oh, no you don't, Jim D. We ignorant masses fell for that when the U.S. was discussing whether to regulate default swaps and stuff like that.

      I freely admit I don't know what you are talking about with "When the Bank of Canada is re-nationalized and there's still not enough money to go around (which is a practically impossible outcome)," but never again will I leave my part of the discussion to the 'knowledgeable elites' due to the 'complexities of the issues and you wouldn't understand'.

      • JimD

        Believe me Jenn, I'm coming at this from a completely populist perspective. The Framers of the US Constitution were adamant that if the power of controlling currency was ever given up by the government, and handed to private banking interests, the country would be doomed. It almost happened during Andrew Jackson's presidency (he successfully turned away the charge), but Woodrow Wilson was duped by Paul Warburg, J. P. Morgan and others into handing over the power currency control with the creation of the Federal Reserve, which a PRIVATELY-OWNED bank, run FOR PROFIT. It has been similar in Canada since 1974, although our goverment still creates, and retains control of, the actual coinage and physical paper money in circulation.
        cont'd

      • JimD

        When a national government controls its currency, it can finance capital projects and the administration of government (pay government wages) by creating its own money supply. World War II, The St. Lawrence Seaway, the Trans-Canada highway, many of our ports, and many urban renewal projects were financed this way, without having to borrow money and go into debt, and without causing inflation. Since 1913 in the US, and 1974 in Canada, anytime the government needs money over and above what it receives in tax revenue, it has to borrow it from, and pay interest to, the private central bank. If everyone knew that our governments once had the power to fund what are essentially stimulus programs debt-free, but gave up that power for the enrichment of private banking interests, there would be a revolution.

        "I sincerely believe that banking institutions are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity… is but swindling futurity on a large scale." – Thomas Jefferson

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

          Well I'm kind of hoping for a revolution against the big banks, stock brokerages and insurance companies right about now, so maybe we should look into that.

  • Brad Sallows

    The reason we face structural deficits is that 1997-2007 was an unusually productive decade, and governments habitually match expenditures to incomes (and then some). Our public spending is calibrated to a level above what is sustainable over the long term. If that decade was in fact partly fuelled by a surge of economic activity based on credit, it means we have already pulled future spending into our past. If – as pointed out in another article in the current issue of Macleans – people are looking to pay down their debts, then the level of economic activity is going to not only fall to "average" levels; it is going to fall below that average. Public revenues, which chiefly are based on the number of economic transactions, will fall commensurately. People can be stubbornly insistent about their priorities: if we tax them for things we think they should have, they may choose to further reduce their economic activity to make up the difference and we will be even worse off.

  • Brad Sallows

    …continuing:

    It was one thing to hope to fill in a short (timewise) trough between 2007 and a resumption of 2007-like levels of public spending a few months or couple of years later, but an entirely different crisis faces us if the reality is that we dropped off a debt-fuelled escarpment (bubble) and we fail to reduce expenditures to match the new reality.

  • Matt

    You, sir, have an excellent argument. The only bit of that I would add is that we should still freeze the corporate tax cuts – if they are already lower than the US as the article suggests, further cutting would not offer us a significant competitive advantage. With the revenue saved, we then have a bit more flexibility to either cut the deficit (at $20 billion, not really necessary, as you say), lower taxes that actually need lowering (payroll or income tax), or raise program spending.

    The only downside I could see with this, a more reasoned approach, is that Canadians may lose their familiarity with balanced budgets and care (or notice) less when governments start running significant deficits. Our sense of fiscal responsibility is quite a miracle compared to other developed nations, and it would be a shame to lose it.

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