Categories: Opinion, Paul Wells

Signs of life for Michael Ignatieff

Prorogation allowed Ignatieff to see through the fog of his foibles and find his vision

by Paul Wells on Friday, February 26, 2010 9:00am - 116 Comments

So where were we? Ah yes. “It being 8:03 p.m.,” acting speaker Barry Devolin told the Commons on Dec. 10, “pursuant to an order made earlier today, the House stands adjourned until Monday, Jan. 25, 2010, at 11 a.m., pursuant to Standing Orders 28(2) and 24(1).

Devolin believed that to be true when he spoke. But 20 days later the Governor General prorogued the second session of the 40th Parliament, so your MPs are going to try it all over again when they return for the third session on March 3.

A lot has happened since then. It’s been a while since I threw a bunch of polling numbers at you, so maybe you’ll indulge me today. Before Christmas I interviewed one of Michael Ignatieff’s new helpers who had moved into the Office of the Leader of the Opposition along with the Liberal boss’s new chief of staff, Peter Donolo. This person said the Liberals’ immediate goal was to move to within a point or two of the Conservatives by spring. I nodded politely. Good luck with that.

The then-latest Ekos poll showed the Liberals 9.2 points behind the Conservatives. As I write this, the latest Ekos shows that lead has shrunk to 1.2 points. Asked whether the Harper government is on the right track, Canadians now respond “no” by 48 per cent to 41 per cent. In December they were saying “yes” by 45 per cent to 44.

This turnaround is entirely due to Michael Ignatieff’s bold and inspiring leadership. Just kidding. No, the news from that other popular Ottawa pollster, Nik Nanos, is less than encouraging for the Liberal leader: while Harper lost 2.8 points as “best Prime Minister” from November to February, falling to 32 per cent, Ignatieff fell 1.6 points in the same period to a dismal 16.1. That’s now fully two points behind the NDP’s Jack Layton.

And yet. Unappreciated and, one suspects, unnoticed by most Canadians, the Liberal leader has begun to move smartly to make himself and his party more relevant and more responsive to Canadian voters. Ignatieff spent 2009 looking rattled, uncertain, by turns timid and reckless. His recent behaviour suggests he surrounded himself well when he reached out to Donolo and crew last October.

Don’t take any of this as an endorsement of Ignatieff or a prediction of success for him. This corner’s crystal ball remains prorogued. But it is beginning to look as though the Conservatives can no longer depend on Ignatieff to do quite so much of their work for them.

First came the Liberal response to the prorogation itself. At first they seemed caught flat-footed by Harper’s decision. Protest came from outside Parliament and outside institutional politics, with a Facebook group and some modestly successful street protests leading the way. But the Liberals did respond, beginning in late January, with a series of round-table discussions on Parliament Hill on issues like jobs, veterans and health care. Under the rubric “Liberals Are Working,” they allowed Liberal MPs to catch up, for real, on some complex issues, and to show the country footage of themselves with brows furrowed, neckties loosened, hard at work.

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arturolexo

When the House resumes, Conservatives will enjoy a return to domination in the polls because Ignatief is not a leader. He knows how to lecture first year university students, about the only ones who find him credible, and he needs to write letters and books, most of which no one reads. That's his calling. Leave the governing to the professionals, you goof, call a vote of non-confidence and get it over with for yourself!

Hunter Mars

Yea, how'd that work out for 'ya ? Zero is still zero where I come from .

hollinm

Wells inadvertently forgot to mention that the anti prorogation issue was driven by the media and only when the opposition saw the torqued headlines and the outrageous columns did they react. Lets not forget Layton was in the sunny United States and Iffy was in France.

As pointed out Iffy has been very busy during the parliamentary break spinning his wheels. Its as if Canadians have made up their minds about him and ignore everything he says.
Obviously he is a professor. He writes 7 pages. Does he think the PM is going to take the time to read a 7 page treatise on virtually every policy that the Libs want addressed? Not likely.

Once again the leader of the official opposition writes a letter about Bouchard. Ever the professor. Much easier to write a letter than hold a press conference and have to answer tough questions. Oh I forgot the feckless media would probably simply ask him how he feels about prorogation.

Anyway Iffy and Donolo should pay attention to Nano’s leadership poll numbers because those are the real indicators of who Canadians think should be running the country.

kcm

" Much easier to write a letter than hold a press conference and have to answer tough questions"

That's pretty funny, when you consider that Harper is unable to do either.
Hunter Mars

ROTFLMAO .

radha pather

This too long for parliament to be shut down.
Holly Stick

Toronto is a landscape of the mind… Or was that Alberta? All these stereotypes look alike to me.
Mulletaur

HST. He has to go before HST. He might also get a bump from the Olympics if we win gold in men's hockey to add to our win in women's hockey.
Fred – Brandon MB

Is he paying you to write this drivel? Ignatieff bears an uncanny resemblance to the Muppet Show character, the American Eagle, in both looks and charisma. He comes across as just about as intelligent too. Remarkable that he sound like such an oaf considering his credentials.

kcm

Can we mark you down as a no?
liberal party enumerator.
http://intensedebate.com/people/CTM Claudia Lemire

Lol, yes he does!!!

biff

Polls that are not close to elections or impending elections fall to general inclinations, historical leanings, rather than voter intention.

This is why Iggy fell and Harper rose when last fall's election speculation was at its peak and a vote was more to the forefront. And why, when a vote is a distant thought it is now "close".

This was also why Dion and Harper were "neck and neck" half a year before the election call, and why Dion crashed.

Hunter Mars

Bull shit !
Hunter Mars

The farmer took another load away and I can tell by the smell it ain't hay .

biff

The largly left leaning media very much wants to believe that its active overhyping of this issue or the next attacking Harper has "worked", indeed that's the very purpose of their overhyping.

But the fundamentals of Harper's government hasn't changed, nor has the state of the country. If anything, the macro picture is better than it was a year a go.

I realize that whether food may be on the table, and the children's lessons can be paid for, is a petty disruption to what is otherwise far more pressing issues such as… the horrid nature of the 105 prorogation (as compared to the previous benign 104 prorogations), whether Harper ate a wafer, shook his son's hand etc – all things the Ottawa/Toronto/ lefitst media elite view as shocking, shocking events,

to the rest it just isn't so.

For these reasons, the next election will not even be close: another very large minority, or majority.

It's the bread and butter that counts. Always has, always will.

illbethejudge

Disagree. The poll drop after proroguation is proof that Canadians do care about more than just "bread and butter" issues. It was arguably disparaging comments from Harper about arts and culture that blunted his chances of a majority in the last election. The Canadian electorate may be relatively disengaged, but those examples show you can't predict what will rile them up. I really believe Harper has created great scepticism of himself that was not there before. While I agree that there is still no inspiring alternative, I honestly believe Canadian voters in general will be more likely to believe the worst of him, rather than give him the benefit of the doubt like they have for the past four years. Harper's free ride is over. I just don't see voters buying in so easily to simplistice (and wrongheaded…ie GST cut) bread and butter issues.. As for your assertion that the Canadian media is largely left leaning, I have to disagree with that too. I would characterize the Canadian media as largely progressive, but not necessarily left leaning. Not coincidentally, so are the vast majority of Canadians.
Hunter Mars

Left leaning ? You are insane .Seventy three percent of all media is controlled by ultra right-wing organizations .
Suggest you do some research .
Start here .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji4QSBrsSiQ

biff

Oh to get back to Liberal rule, where prorogation is just some routine procedure, switching parties is a shrewd political move and not the end of representative democracy, and attack ads are par for the course rather than a "new savage form of politics".

Where a party website suggestive of killing the conservative leader is ignored (as compared to the dastardly pooping puffin), the attire of the nation's leader is returned to the world of the mundane rather than part of some sinister form of public manipulation, agendas are what the government tells us they are, rather than "hidden" far right subterfuge.

Oh how the media wishes to have Liberals run the country again. Back to the "natural" state of affairs.

kcm

'Where a party website suggestive of killing the conservative leader is ignored (as compared to the dastardly pooping puffin…"

In one case it was put out officially by the party, in the other it was the ravings of a misguided liberal [presumably] and subsequently withdrawn and apologized for. Do you even attempt to avoid misrepresentation at all biff?
http://intensedebate.com/people/prescott prescott

Back to your sandbox, biffy. You've become tiresome and a bore.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"Signs of life for Michael Ignatieff"

Sure. He's gone from comatose to lethargic though I agree the past few weeks have been good for Iggy/Libs.

I will be interested to see if Iggy can change first impression that Canadians have of him – what we've seen from the past year – and believe in this new Iggy 2.0. Am I the only one who wonders who the real Iggy is when he makes it this apparent how much in control his handlers are of him.

Libs have struggled to get above 30/32% for the past five years, that's the story to focus on. Where have the Lib supporters gone?
http://intensedebate.com/people/sprite1949 sprite1949

Those who suggest "a left leaning media" exists in Canada should stop to consider:

1. The majority of Canadians are left leaning…just add up the numbers for Liberal, New Democrats and Green party support. If they were united the right leaning Canadians would not stand a chance of even winning a minority government.

2. The media, therefore, is a natural representation of the political views of our country.

3. The longer the Harper Conservatives stay in power, the greater the danger that Canada's relatively favourable reputation will disintegrate.

Too bad we can't get a united left–select the best policies from each and truly move this country forward (I know, I know, wishful thinking on my part) instead of staying with this minority Conservative government which will gradually "Americanize" our nation.

biff

That's what the left leaning media would have you believe. Many in the Liberal party are conservative. It was after all the "center" party.

When Chretien had Martin as Minister of Finance, an argument could be made that they were every bit as conservative as Harper's current government.
http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"The majority of Canadians are left leaning …."

I agree with that. Even Con Party Of Canada is more Socialist Workers Party than Libertarian/Classic Liberal.

The rest of what you wrote is wrong, however.

1) Cons would dance jigs of joy if Liberal party were to disappear and people had to choose between Con and NDP. And NDP supporters would never vote for NDP if they were even less left leaning than they are now.

2) The media is not meant to represent the political views of the country – they are meant to be advocates for us, the public, against Pols, bureaucrats, big business and the like. And msm does not remotely reflect view of most Canadians – msm is good at covering Liberal internal divisions – Martin/Iggy wing of party (Globe/CTV) and Trudeau/Chreiten/Dion (TorStar/CBC) – but it's not very diverse.

3) I am not sure what you are talking about. Do you mean favourable reputation abroad? Why should we care what foreigners think of us? We are one of the most tolerant countries in world, why would we care what reactionaries around the world think of us. I don't care all that much what the world's gangsters and murderers think of Canada.

And I would like to hear more about the Americanization of Canada because that's absurd.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sprite1949 sprite1949

I don't think you should jump to the conclusion that what I said was wrong. Journalists are Canadians, just like you and me. As part of the overall general picture then, there are most likely more left leaning journalists, but I don't pretend to have statistics that can prove that. A united left includes a Liberal party, not as you mention, has it disappear. Note I suggest such a party would recognize the value of NDP ideas, as well as the Green. Such a united party would avoid the more extreme policies of each and modify them to make them more palatable for the greatest number of Canadians. There needs to be a role played by all, without representation of the people being skewed totally to the left or right for the best form of government. Thus far, Mr. Harper has modified his actual "true" platform to garner support for his present "Conservative" party, but if his own honest beliefs were made known, his popularity would plunge rapidly. If you google "Harper's Americanization of Canada", you might realize that "absurd" may be too strong a word to use.

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"If you google "Harper's Americanization of Canada"

Ohhhh, it's on the internet. Why didn't you say so. It must be true, than.
biff

Study after study has shown that journos are not representative of the wider society, but are far more to the left.

It's not even slightly close. Most honest commentators have recognized this long ago.

The best defense journos come up with is that they can overlook their leftist tendencies.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

Those who refer to the left-leaning media (at least with respect to the press) are misinformed. If you go through Canada's newspapers among the partisan commentators there are many more on the right than on the left. For every James Travers there are about two Terence Corcorans (a somewhat scary thought). Of course, not all journalists or columnists are so easy to sort but even when the moderates are included there is still a tendancy to have more comment coming from the right.

I suspect there are several reasons many on the right feel the press is against them. Fortunately there are very few commentators speaking for the angry racist white man contingent. Also the religious right in the US has been complaining about their press forever. However, probably the most important reason is that those commentators with the most right-wing views in Canada tend to write for the National Post and the Sun chain. So it seems likely that Canadians actually read more left-leaning commentary even though by a substantive margin there is more right-wing commentary written.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

Those who refer to the left-leaning media (at least with respect to the press) are misinformed. If you go through Canada's newspapers among the partisan commentators there are many more on the right than on the left. For every James Travers there are about two Terence Corcorans (a somewhat scary thought). Of course, not all journalists or columnists are so easy to sort but even when the moderates are included there is still a tendancy to have more comment coming from the right.

I suspect there are several reasons many on the right feel the press is against them. Fortunately there are very few commentators speaking for the angry racist white man contingent. Also the religious right in the US has been complaining about their press forever. However, probably the most important reason is that those commentators with the most right-wing views in Canada tend to write for the National Post and the Sun chain. So it seems likely that Canadians actually read more left-leaning commentary even though by a substantive margin there is more right-wing commentary written.

biff

We'll have to agree to dissagree.

Also expect a realignment in the media that is similar to what is occuring in the US. Left leaning rags (NYT) are going belly up, why more centrist papers (Wall St. Journal) are thriving.

The overtly left leaning cable news in the US are now dwarfed by Fox.

Canada lags such changes, but they'll happen.

Canary in the coalmine: Kate's SDA is the most read political blog in Canada, by a very wide margin.

http://twitter.com/ishmaeldaro @ishmaeldaro

First of all, the right/left division is tired and pretty unhelpful. Secondly, to describe the Wall Street Journal as centrist is to ignore their rabid neo-conservative editorial pages. The NYT by comparison is more moderate or liberal, sure, but the world-class coverage they provide in their news section makes that worth it.

By "Kate's SDA" I assume you mean Small Dead Animals, which, though successful, is hardly representative of most Canadians' politics.

Kaplan

That thing's a "political" blog? By who's definition?

http://intensedebate.com/people/jolyon jolyon

"The majority of Canadians are left leaning …."

I agree with that. Even Con Party Of Canada is more Socialist Workers Party than Libertarian/Classic Liberal.

The rest of what you wrote is wrong, however.

1) Cons would dance jigs of joy if Liberal party were to disappear and people had to choose between Con and NDP. And NDP supporters would never vote for NDP if they were even less left leaning than they are now.

2) The media is not meant to represent the political views of the country – they are meant to be advocates for us, the public, against Pols, bureaucrats, big business and the like. And msm does not remotely reflect view of most Canadians – msm is good at covering Martin/Iggy wing of party (Globe/CTV) and Trudeau/Chreiten/Dion (TorStar/CBC) and we are supposed to think this represents the diverse thought of Canadians.

3) I am not sure what you are talking about. Do you mean favourable reputation abroad? Why should we care what foreigners think of us? We are one of the most tolerant countries in world, why would we care what reactionaries around the world think of us. I don't care all that much what the world's gangsters and murderers think of Canada.

And I would like to hear more about the Americanization of Canada because that's absurd.
orval

The key event is Ignatieff's admission that under no circumstances will the Liberals force an election in 2010. He had to because if an election was imminent, the ballot question would be: "who do you want to be PM?" and the leadership polling shows Stephen Harper has a wide lead over Michael Ignatieff. Without an election coming, the polls stabilize and attention shifts back to peripheral issues, such as prorogation and Minister Guergis's temper tantrums.

The key change following prorogation is that Ignatieff can no longer claim to support the Government in the House while using his plurality in the Senate to stymie the Government's legislation. Now if he is against the legislation, he has to resist it in the House. And as he doesn't want an election, this will increase pressure within the Liberal caucus.

Ignatieff has to convince everyone that the Liberals are committed to a top-to-bottom rebuilding of their party. He could do this by announcing that there will be no elections until 2012 (4 years after last election) and that the March thinker's conference is the first step in the rebuilding, and then do it. He has got to stop the petty and hysterical faux-scandal of the day approach which is failing big time. He has to say there is no quick and easy way back to power for the Liberals – there is only the hard way and it will take time and patience.

And meanwhile, politically, both Ignatieff and Harper have an interest in cooperating in Quebec. After Lucien Bouchard's outburst, something is going on in Bloc/PQ circles, but what? I like Chantal Hebert's idea of an entente cordiale between Liberals and Conservatives – end federalist vote-splitting by "conceding" the Montreal area to the Liberals, where they are much stronger than the Conservatives, and the rest of Quebec to the Conservatives, where they are stronger than the Liberals and more competitive with the Bloc.

It is this kind of imaginative cooperation that will do Ignatieff and Harper and Canada some good, if they work together to re-engage francophone Quebeckers into Canadian politics and reduce the Bloc's appeal.
BobbyB

I have to wonder why, if MI was so far down in the polls, why would Harpo resurrected him and in effect increase the Liberal numbers? What shrewed political gamesmanship would allow Harpo to do this? The more I thought about it the more I became convinced that it was just Harpo getting reading for the Olympics out west. You see he must have put back on his leather vest and cowboy hat and then got it wet and it must have squeezed out a brain fart! Note to Harpo….stay with the blue sweater and the piano, the western garb alienates your base and elevates the Liberals (not to mention gives the rest of Canada a good chuckle!!!).
greyburr

If no one is really paying attention,how could it not be possible for Ignatieff to do better than he has in the past year?Grand empty statements passing as policy visions only mean the public had better watch out for their wallets as once again we will be paying for more experimental social engineering.
Mars

Everybody out there- stop & think–with parliament not in session– means– there is more work being done– then when they are sitting– & arguing over -trivial remarks- who made what- by whom—& the never ending shouting— He must resign– or apologize— etc.?
Iggy– so far has nothing 2 say- that would make me think– he could run a country. @ give everyone a masters degree education–sounds great– but stop & think– if we are all that well educated– ther e would be no jobs–who would do the menial taskes etc.??
Same goes 4 socialistc thinkers– if we are all taken equal( which we aren't) then we will all be equally poor!!!! So have ur pick–go down the hill– or up. A leader must have convictions–& stand by them– cant be all- 2 all of the people –all the time!!!

http://twitter.com/ishmaeldaro @ishmaeldaro

You must have been in a real hurry to type up that masterpiece. Or rather:

"U must of bin in a real hurry–dashes–2 type that up!!!"

Gary

He'll be PM by June. And an exceptional one.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CTM Claudia Lemire

No, he will never be PM!
http://twitter.com/ishmaeldaro @ishmaeldaro

Although I don't share your confidence, I don't think he would be that exceptional. Unless he sweeps Parliament like Chretien did in 93, he will be working within the confines of a minority government. The Conservatives are going to push him right, and the Bloc and NDP will push him left. His policies would be balancing acts, which could still be good legislation, but there would be no room for him to make his mark on the country.

I say we let a new crop of leaders rise to the top of all the parties… except Gilles Duceppe. He's good to have around for leadership debates.

Fred – Brandon MB

Claiming that the majority of Canadians are "left leaning" is pure hogwash. The truth is that the majority of Canadians are "centrist" and whoever wins the "centre" wins the election. That is why we never have a federal NDP government. And why we never had a Reform government.
http://intensedebate.com/people/doug5 doug5

Ignatieff is polling no worse than Chrietian or Harper did as opposition leader. There is a potentiallly big turning point in the next election when the number of voters who are really angry at the governments mismanagement may turn in droves to strategic voting. Economists are distraught at the economic mismanagement of the economy, envirionmentalists dispair at the governments continual refusal to do anything at all on the environment, etc.. This is the most ideological narrow minded government in Canadian history and voters are increasingly seeing this. Look at the way they have catered to narrow interest groups-ie the Rights and Democracy debacle.
Gary

Signs of life – hardly.
Just what does this man stand for and when is he going to tell us ?
All right, I admit he is persistant in demanding that the few thousand Canadians in Afghanistan take responsiblity for that countries police and judiciary, but name me one other issue on which he has made his position clear.
Example – I have written him repeatedly to ask for a clear statement of his Liberal parties position on protecting private pension plans in bankruptcy but he continues to dodge this issue and won't even back up statements of Liberal critic Judy Sgro.
Leadership – not from this guy.
Jen

Iggy snuck into his position as leader of the official opposition to start with. Unlimited abortions for women…how typical U.S. Democrat!
He used their school system to write all his books and now he wants to use Canada. I think he would stand a far better chance in the political realm if he returned to the U.S. and we would all be better off if he did.