Categories: Need to know

Support for Conservatives growing

Latest poll puts Tories 10 points ahead of Liberals

by macleans.ca on Thursday, May 20, 2010 11:22am - 22 Comments

Stephen Harper can breathe easy this Victoria Day weekend. According to a new EKOS poll, support for the Conservatives has been growing, giving the ruling party a lead of almost 10 percentage points over the Liberals. More than 34 per cent of those surveyed said that if an election were held tomorrow, they’d vote Tory. Meanwhile, 25.1 per cent said they’d cast their ballot for Liberals, 15.3 per cent for the NDP, 12 per cent for the Green party and 10.6 per cent for the Bloc.

CBC News

Tags: Canada

Sean

Why do I expect Parliament to suddenly start getting terribly dysfunctional?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I would expect the opposite – Parliament is suddenly going to become very cooperative.

Oliver

I also agree, the LPC is going to need to realize that the only to get back into the picture is to stop being such whiny brats and try to get something done.

hosertohoosier

10 points (and 34% of the vote) is not sufficient for a Harper majority – a 12 point win wasn't enough last time. The pattern of Harper's minority should be pretty clear by now:

1. Polls have Harper losing (eg. Winter 2007, First half of 2009): runs attack ads, but tacks to the center and cooperates with opposition
2. Polls have Harper maintaining minority (Most of the period since January 23, 2006): Harper does roughly what he wants to, calling the bluff of the opposition over VONC threats.
3. Polls have Harper winning possible majority (September 2008, November 2008, January 2010): Harper goes too far, hoping to either provoke an election or get his way. The result is that he usually falls in the polls, taking us back to step 1.

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

Excellent news! and basically on target … although why would anyone be surprised all you have to do is listen to Iggy give a speech and if you can stay awake after 5 minutes you definitely are a committed liberal or about to be committed. Let's be honest folks the average voter isn't buying the constant barrage of screaming wolf, wolf, wolf … and wolf again by the LPT. When an oppostion party spends all of it's time insulting the gov't and the voter in constant search of a scandal it starts to become like political white noise in the background and in point of fact starts to give one a headache – Iggy doesn't have a chance against Harper – case closed!

http://intensedebate.com/people/hollinm hollinm

We also know what Iffy thinks of ordinary Canadians. In his speech in Calgary he said his time outside the country makes him a better Canadian. The rest of us smucks who have lived in Canada all of our lives are somehow less Canadian I guess. Keep talkng Iffy. Canadians don't think much of you now and if you keep talking like that your polling numbers will be in the minuses.
By the way can you just see the ad during the campaign. Iffy thinks he's a better Canadian than you. In his words. That will go over like a lead balloon among we ordinary smucks.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

What's interesting is that their support among women is lower than their support among men. That strikes me as unusual – does anyone have data on whether this is new or ongoing?

Oliver

CBC said that it's a continuing trend for the CPC http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/05/19/ekos-…
Not much details other than that little line about it though.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

I was talking about the Liberals. It's the norm for the CPC, but I think it's a big concern for the Liberals if they lose the majority of women.

D.D.S

most of the women I know are planning on voting NDP…several were LPC before …..what are the NDP numbers I wonder?

fuddle duddle

i hope more people vote NDP so that the Conservatives will get more seats

http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/ CanadianSense

http://ces-eec.org/pdf/Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat.pdf

Great place to start in demographics and key voting blocs.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/

Another great site for details and queries.

In battleground ridings across Canada, the Liberals trail the Conservative Party among women, and some are placing the blame squarely on Leader Stéphane Dion.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/arti…

“It's not that the Conservatives are enjoying an edge among women,” Mr. Donolo said “But the Liberals are seeing their women's vote split three different ways among the opposition to Harper. They have to draw back support from the NDP and the Green Party.”

I put together a few graphs on April 23. 2010 Ekos Poll by Region. The Myth of Female voter as some left of centre voting block for Liberals. (They have other options)

http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2010/04/liberal…

One woman's opinion

Mr. Donolo's quote doesn't make sense. A vote with the LPC IS already in "opposition to Harper". If the LPC's have lost women voters to the NDP and the Greens – but not to the Cons – those lost votes would be in opposition to Iggy &/or the LPC.
http://intensedebate.com/people/CanadianSense CanadianSense

I am not sure exactly what you mean.

Donolo has given advice to the Liberals, so has Graves. Both believe they can win a "cultural war" on pitting women, region against region.

I don't think the 1990's campaign is going to be work with LIB winning 100 seats and scaring everyone from the CPC base.
The McGill study shows the loss of key voting blocks as a result of those decisions.

One woman's opinion

I can't speak for all women, but this woman gets a visceral negative reaction to Iggy (I do to Harper as well). At least Harper is an obvious bully. Seems to me Iggy is poster boy, or more likely just the frontman, for the dirty backroom Machiavellian manoeuvring the Liberal Party was thrown out for in the first place.

It’s obvious the Liberal Party is a victim of Pournelle’s Law. They had an opportunity to clean up the rot and eject the rank opportunists in their ranks. Instead, they seem to have sidelined or “contained” anyone with genuine principles. Perhaps these results will provide the impetus to finally make those changes. Btw, getting rid of Mr. Rossi was a fantastic start.

As distasteful as Harper is as Prime Minister, I think women feel it’s better to deal with the wolf you can see than the possible snake in the grass you can’t. Even though I don't agree with them, at least Harper HAS some principles that guide him. Iggy – not so much.

hosertohoosier

More fake news from the socialist bankster-aligned CBC's biased Liberal-backing pollster. Harper is really ahead by 30 points, and all of the opposition leaders are on suicide watch. Iggy is about to enter the winter of his discontent, both because of his failures as a leader, and because global cooling is very real, people.
http://intensedebate.com/people/RunningGag RunningGag

Interestingly enough, while at 12% the Greens would not receive 1 seat, the Bloc at 10% will receive around 50 seats. Take that democracy!
http://intensedebate.com/people/hollinm hollinm

Obviously the poll is good news for the government. However, I have to question anything the Liberal pollster puts out now.

The fact remains is that Iffy keeps putting both feet in his mouth. Its interesting he offered suggestions in Calgary talking about free tuition if you get the marks, improved healthcare and of course helping the elderly. Not one media outlet questioned how is going to do any of this since all of these things are provincial jurisidiction and where is the money going to come from. Not one media outlet other than columnist Jeffrey Simpson questioned the realism of these suggestions.
Carter

Mr. Harper is doing a very good job, considering he only has a minority government. He seems to be focusing on areas of society to serve rather tahn being served. I hope the Conservatives get a majority.
cooper

Must be the posters are only getting those folks that live in caves or under rocks to answer their calls.The government of Stephen Harper is incompetant and frankly amateurish and an embarrssment. That Canadians find them acceptable as the government speaks volumns for Canadian's inattention to the proceedings of parliamnet and to thier basic human decency, shame on us. But we will get the government we deserve and ibelieve me it wont look pretty.And we wondered how it was possible to elect and then re-elect GW Bush and quess what this guy is worse.

Carole

incompetent ? Seems we are in a better position with Harper than with any past Liberal
amateurish? Do you mean new and fresh ideas ?.
embarrassment ? Too bad the oposition doesn't come up with ways to support Canadians instead of blocking any motion that represents true values.

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