Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

What happened and why (III)

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, June 11, 2010 2:28pm - 12 Comments

From the CES survey, the stuff of Stephane Dion’s nightmares.

The Liberal Party’s Green Shift will really hurt the Canadian economy.
Strongly agree 16.8%
Somewhat agree 22.9%
Somewhat disagree 26.0%
Strongly disagree 13.4%
Don’t know 20.0%

The Liberal Party’s carbon tax will really hurt the Canadian economy.
Strongly agree 28.3%
Somewhat agree 25.2%
Somewhat disagree 17.9%
Strongly disagree 11.9%
Don’t know 16.1%

Tags: Canadian Election Study, carbon tax, election, Green shift, opinion poll, polling, Stéphane Dion

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http://dougsamu.wordpress.com doug rogers

Clearly demonstrates how the wording of the question affects things.

How about “Doing nothing to protect the environment will really hurt the Canadian economy.”

How does that question poll?

avr

It hardly matters. Normal people not obsessed with their carbon footprint can be solicited to give the answer you're looking for with weasely-enough phrasing, sure – but they're still going to vote based on how they feel about the definite effects (an increased personal tax burden) and not the far-off hypothetical ones ("saving the environment").
http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

Exactly. So many poll results are all about the questions that get asked, and how they are asked.

Amateur Hour

When did you stop beating Miss Piggy?
Orson Bean

Not to get too gushy here, but the Candian Election Study rocks. I've consistently found it, over the years, to be the most informative and useful source of information for the Canadian political junkie. One of the things that's great about it is that it's managed to remain scrupulously fact-based and non-partisan, something we have far too little of among political circles. Also, its polling methodology is exactly what good polling should be: it digs deep, asks great, probing follow-up questions. Here's hoping it always gets funded in the future.

hosertohoosier

I just wish they asked more people than they do. When you do cross-correlations, sometimes you are stuck with very small sample sizes. I mean, if Ekos can poll 41,000 people, why can't the CES? So yes, more money to the CES.

http://intensedebate.com/people/VinceClortho VinceClortho

Fair point. And yet what question was on people's minds?

More than half the challenge is framing the questions.

But it isnt strictly propoganda. Since nobody is holding a gun to the electorates head the question that resonates with people the most (reflects their concerns/hopes) is the one that they are more likely to ask.

In this case, I think the poll reflects the question that was on more peoples minds, rightly or wrongly based on the post hoc analysis. Some voters would have been asking the question your way, just not many or not with sufficient urgency or priority.

Right now, it doesnt seem to be a priority question for any major country.
Josh

If I were polled, I'd say that the Green Shift would hurt the Canadian economy. And then I voted Liberal anyway, because the environmental benefits outweigh the economic cost.

http://intensedebate.com/people/john_g2708 john g

Wow. No wonder they were so willing to steal the trademark of that company
http://intensedebate.com/people/John_Edgar John_Edgar

Whenever I see these polls I first think so what, and then get really depressed. So what because I don't really care what my fellow citizens think is the best tax policy (or the best way to fund health care, or any opinion on *how* policy should be enacted). Then I get really depressed because obviously our parties do base their policies on technical matters around these kinds of polls.
http://nottawa.blogspot.com Mark

This is precisely why I scoff at anyone who laments low voter turnout.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Conclusion: the Liberal Party has some serious image cleanup work to do. Either (a) they need to rehabilitate the concept of carbon taxes, or (b) they need to dissociate themselves from it.