Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

'You try to limit the amount of state coercion that you have'

by Aaron Wherry on Thursday, July 8, 2010 1:16pm - 0 Comments

While Tony Clement continues to try to defend his department’s census changes, Stephen Gordon tallies the potential damage done.

But 2011 will be different. Unless the federal government reverses its decision, researchers will be obliged to put an asterisk next to numbers from the 2011 census, with a footnote explaining that because these data were not calculated using the same methodology, they are not strictly comparable to previous numbers.

And since we’re talking about using the census to look at long-run trends, here’s a summary of the history of questions that have been asked since the first census in 1871. It’s an awful lot of history to flush away.

Tags: census, Statistics Canada, StatsCan, Stephen Gordon, Tony Clement

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http://intensedebate.com/people/CTM Claudia Lemire

Honestly, it doesn't sound bad, let them play it out and see what happens and then they can complain about it.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Some actions are not easily reversible.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

Exactly.

There was no consultation on this decision at all. That is one of the most disturbing issues about this braindead decision to cater to a tiny minority of far right conservatives.

If the census was taken every year, maybe you could "throw the dice". But when it is not, and you know from every prior statistics analysis that the results will be skewed, and you know 100% that the sampling will at least be different than every other year, you can't just "see what happens". You know what is going to happen.

No wonder they didn't want to do any consultation on this at all.

sea_n_mountains

sure we can guess at basic trends for a few years, hopefully get real data back and see how wrong the guess work was. brilliant.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

I truly and honestly hope you get never have Tony's brother the surgeon as your doctor.

http://intensedebate.com/people/LynnTO LynnTO

It is better to have no data at all than to have data on which you cannot rely.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

Well… I don't know about that. I'd rather have some information that can be built upon.

Look at for example the great job that the Budget Office is doing tracking our money despite strong opposition by Harper to any accountability and their deliberately keeping information from him. The unbelievable cost of the crime bills being the most recent and a great example. He doesn't have nearly the whole picture because Harper won't release relevant information, but his conclusions have been alarming (which is no doubt why they contually try to prevent him from doing a truly effective job by withholding information or providing incomplete information).

http://intensedebate.com/people/LynnTO LynnTO

Methodology is the foundation upon which the structure of research is set. A bad foundation means you have an unstable house that could pose a hazard to the people who dwell inside.

In the case of Page, the foundation is set, but the house isn't built (if we're going to continue that metaphor.)

In the case of the longform Census, the foundation and house are built, but someone's taking a jackhammer to the foundation wall.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

Oh, I agree totally. This is stupid.

But to truly overextend the metaphor, it's still providing some shelter and, if you hire a repairman (preferably a red one), you can fix it going forward even if one room will always have a little draft.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

you have over extended ted abd the metaphor doen;t work. the points is you don;t when you the data is accurate and when it is not. in that context, no data is better than iffy data.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

Lynn is absolutely correct.

CAPS

The Harper Conservatives prefer "truthiness" to actual facts.
Anon 001

Tony Clement would rather defend this than the G20 boondoggle.

Lord Kitchener's Own

Without accurate Census data, how will the government ensure that the $100,000 gazebos are safely hidden away, far from actual people, so that no one will ever see them???

Dee

Tony Clement, and the Conservatives, seem hellbent on damaging the reputation of and decades of excellent work from Statistics Canada with this idiotic census change proposal. Smart leaders listen to the experts in fields (statistics, science, public health, …) where they clearly have limited expertise. Unfortunately, we are currently being governed by a band of boneheads…
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

I think Canada will survive.

Lord Kitchener's Own

Sure we'll survive, but I think the survivors will envy the dead.

(lol, j/k)

brooster

StatsCan has, historically, been an international model for its kind of research institution, emulated and consulted on data gathering methodology and analysis by other countries around the world.

That this government would tinker with its work is further evidence of the Cons' fundamental anti-rational, anti-science world-view, echoing the Ontario Harris government's reliance on "common sense". I believe Einstein once said that "Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen."

So, we've got a government with the intellectual wisdom (and overweening self-assurance) of a bunch of teenoids…scarey.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Mr Clement. Your family misses you. Please make a decision to spend more time with your family. Like, immediately.
Standing By

Who exactly wanted this change? Is there a single organization or expert that supports what Clement is doing? Beyond a few right-wing American bloggers, does anyone think this is a good idea? Why is this happening?
Standing By

Addendum; I just read that ruining the survey by making it voluntary will cost $30 million more than if you left it alone and didn't ruin the survey. I am stunned to learn this. So why is this really happening|?
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Tea partiers and extreme right wing nutbars in the US
http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

Because Harper et al don't like it when stats go against the misinformation they're trying to feed you
http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

To be fair, a straight forward question (without background) would probably split about 60-40. If someone knowledgeable provided a factual argument for a compulsory census it would shift to about 85-15. If it became an election issue, it would go back to about 60-40 with the downside of having jarrid et al spouting nonstop nonsense on these pages.

However, the vast majority really would never, ever give a crap. (What fraction of people enjoyed statistics?) There are a very few passionate defenders of the census, but I fear they are outnumbered by the Canadian chapter of the nutbars. Sometimes these nutbars are misidentified as Jewish, but on closer examination all of the skullcaps are made of tinfoil.
Matlock

Anyone else notice how frequently "Guy" was posting on this topic yesterday all over the net (and rather incoherently at that), and yet has disappeared completely today? Anyone else smell a Tory staffer at work?
Holly Stick

Yes indeed. I pointed that out and maybe others did also.