Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

The census coalition

by Aaron Wherry on Monday, July 12, 2010 1:30pm - 0 Comments

To those who oppose the government’s changes to the census you can now add the Statistical Society of Canada, the Federation of Canadian Municipalitiesthe Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, the Canadian Marketing Association, the Canadian Federation of Francophone and Acadian Communitiesthe Executive Council of the Canadian Economics Association, the director of the Prentice Institute at the University of Lethbridge, the senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternativesthe Canadian Institute of Planners, the Canadian Association for Business Economics, and the editorial boards of the Saskatoon Star-Phoenix, Calgary HeraldWinnipeg Free Press and Globe and Mail.

They join the co-chairman of the Canada Census Committee, Ancestry.cacity planners in Calgary and Red Deerthe Canadian Association of University Teachers, the former head of Statistics Canada, and the editorial boards of the Toronto StarMontreal GazetteEdmonton Journal and Victoria Times-Colonist.

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  • Emily

    Well PM Cameron scrapped it in the UK, and Harper couldn't wait to get home to do the same thing. He thinks it looks like a money saver, and it appeals to the paranoid in his voter-base.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1293572/T…

    Another move that underestimated the uproar and opposition it would cause.

    • Van Centre

      Except that the replacement voluntary survey is more expensive than the long form. They didn't do this to save money.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/sea_n_mountains sea_n_mountains

        dude, she says "it looks like a money saver". he doesn't care if it is or not . perception is everything!

    • Won'tGetFooledAgain!

      Furthermore, Harper doesn't enjoy stats and any scientific approach. Harper likes to make it up as he goes along depending on what votes he's trying to buy. If this continues, one day Harper will simply expect Canadians to believe his spin or take on anything of an importance, because "I say so."
      We have a ruthless sociopath for a Prime Minister.

  • John D

    Well, with a couple possible exceptions that is is not a list of people this party is worried about having on-side.

    • Emily

      People looking to get elected need as many people as possible 'on-side'.

      And when even Harper's home city of Calgary dislikes this move….

      http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingn…

      • John D

        Actually you don't. Tom Flanagan knows that, as he is skilled in game theory. You want just as many people as can get you elected, but not too many.

  • May Tagerfeld

    Aaron – you miss the Calgary Herald!
    http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion/editorials/C…

  • Econ

    Also missed:
    Canadian Association of Business Economists: http://www.cabe.ca/jmv1/index.php?option=com_docm…

    Toronto Association of Business Economists: http://www.cabe.ca/jmv1/index.php?option=com_docm…

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/David0M David_M.

    Is this another "thou dost in us command" moment?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

      I think this is the wrong decision, but suspect that it is more like a "cut the GST" moment than "thou dost in us command" moment when it comes to listening to experts.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

        The cut to the GST was politics over policy designed to win over voters who were hesitant about voting Conservative, despite the economic effect of the policy and what was good policy.

        How is this decision like that? Who is being won over by this choice of politics over policy?

        • TwoYen

          I may not have been clear. My point is that unlike the O Canada issue where the government changed its mind after people started challenging the proposed change, my guess is that the government is unlikely to listen to the critics on this one even if they are experts.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

            Gotcha.

            And I agree.

            He's really backed himself into a corner on this issue. Many many Canadians care about this issue a great deal. A tiny fraction of a minorty of Canadians – all far right conservative/libertarians care about it strongly and want it gone. A much larger minority of Canadians – including people from all parties and ideologies – see the value and the importance in having sound and reliable data and want it mandatory.

            Will it change anyone's vote? Not likely. But you can just add it to the pile of decisions that turn people just a little bit more off who might have supported you in the past or the future. It is inevitable with any government that this happens over time. It is surprising when they voluntarily and deliberately try to accelerate that disengagement and disconnect.

  • Dee

    Since when do the Conservatives typically listen to experts? Boneheaded policy is presently the status quo in this country.

    • jay

      I agree–none of this matters as long as Joe "Tim Hortons" buys Harper's lame rationale.

  • Zwee

    Aaron – no one gives a sh*t. Really. Move on. I know you don’t lack for hate-on-Harper stories, and almost anything up your sleeve will play better than this.

    • Emily

      Oh there are plenty of people who 'give a sh*t'. Read the thread opener.

    • brooster

      I give a sh*t, Zwee…don't speak for me.

    • zwee

      If you spend your time trolling around the internet you can find people who are obsessed with anything under the sun, no matter how strange, superfluous, sick, etc., it is. This fact is amply demonstrated by the fact that a notorious comment board troll is so interested in this story. This fact is amply demonstrated by the fact that a notorious comment board troll is so interested in this story. But most Canadians are not internet trolls, and they are no interested in or swayed by the kind of nonsense that these creatures are. The fact that Wheery is so impressed by something which is of such interest to such people – and only to such people – ought to be a wake-up call for him concerning the depths into which his Harper-hatred is taking him.

      • Emily

        Well that makes no sense at all.

        But if you choose to ignore all the people up in arms about it, it's your problem.

      • Amateur Hour

        So, a journalist points out that many of the nation's major papers, social science organizations, statistical bodies and economists are opposed to Harper's policy concerning the census …. and we should ignore them because they, or those who agree with them, may be trolls?

        Harper supporters complaining about trolls?

        Welcome to Neverneverland.

        • zwee

          "many of the nation's major papers"

          - No one reads newspaper editorials except other people who work at newspapers. Saskatoon will vote Conservative and Toronto will vote Liberal regardless of what their local papers editorialize.

          "social science organizations"

          - No really big name organizations are involved here and, regardless, the general public has never heard of any such organizations either way.

          "statistical bodies"

          - Because we all know that the wheel of Canadian political history has turned on the dime of the pronouncements of "statistical bodies"

          "economists"

          - You mean that someone or other from a dedicated partisan organization such as the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives has a criticism of Harper's policy? That's a daily event, not news; it's never effected his electoral chances in the past, and it's certainly not going to now.

          "we should ignore them because they, or those who agree with them, may be trolls"

          - I never said that the aforementioned groups were trolls, just that they don't influence Canadian public opinion, as evidenced by the fact that the only people who are about this story are trolls.

          • Amateur Hour

            " as evidenced by the fact that the only people who are about this story are trolls"

            Your evidence for this?

          • zwee

            This thread.

          • Amateur Hour

            You seriously believe that the only people concerned about this issue are on Maclean's blog comments board?

            Or is it that, to your way of thinking, anyone who disagrees with you is by definition a troll?

          • zwee

            You're not reading what I write. Above, I explained why the groups referred to in Wheery's post will not have any measurable effect on public opinion, so your first question is beside the point. I'm simply saying that the people claiming otherwise in this thread are trolls. For instance, Emily has been identified as a troll in many other threads, and, as you can see above, was/is determined to claim that Wheery's post held some sort of political significance. It doesn't. Your second question is just stupid, since it has no basis in anything I've said. I suspect it's more the case that people who post in Wheery threads are so used to existing inside a Liberal echo-chamber that they can't hear any dissent from their party line without this bizarre garbage about "anyone who disagrees with you". You're just making sh*t up to make yourself feel good. "The Census Coalition" will simply not move public opinion one way or another.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

            I love it when people go to their computer, seek out the Macleans site, go to Wheery's thread and then spend the next hour or so, telling the lengthy list of people on the thread that nobody is interested. (makes one wonder what they do with the rest of their day)

          • zwee

            Actually, my comments are the only popular part of this thread. Apart from that, it's fairly quiet for a Macleans thread.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

            I get it… you must be like Aaron's mom, just helping him out by providing some controversial spice to an otherwise dry discourse.

          • Amateur Hour

            I if I quoted what you just wrote, people might think it a fabrication.

            Your tirade is filled with accusations about people misunderstanding you, despite quoting you directly, calling people who disagree with you stupid, and accusing the of making sh*t up to (alternately) misrepresent you or make themselves feel good.

            I think there's value in your point that professional organizations and users of statistics won't move public opinion on this issue. I do. (I think it's equally fair for others to suggest that a government intent on making policies that are contrary to evidence — and in this case contrary to the recommendations of those who create and use statistics — is maybe not the best of all happenings.)

            Indeed, on technical issues, one would hope that a government (any government) would rely on expertise and evidence whether or not it's a hot button issue with the public. One would hope that journalists, another of your targets, would also cover stories that aren't always driven by ratings.

            However, your point about the public not giving a fig about what a bunch of stats monkeys think is somewhat overwhelmed by the internal contradictions, misplaced hostility and vitriol fueling your responses to others.

            So, have I missed something? Is there something else you;d like to add to the debate about the Harper government's decision-making concerning the census? I understand you question the value of public debate on this topic since the only ones concerned with it appear, to you, to be trolls. Is there anything else you'd like to add?

          • zwee

            "Your tirade is filled with accusations about people misunderstanding you, despite quoting you directly"

            I believe that there is one direct quotation of anything of anything that I've written in this thread. On the other hand, you have posts such as brooster's which are sheer fabrications.

            "calling people who disagree with you stupid"

            People who think invent and attribute positions to me wholesale or engage in inane name-calling do indeed seem stupid.

            "and accusing the of making sh*t up to (alternately) misrepresent you or make themselves feel good."

            This is a fact. Well, the motivation is an imputation. But look at brooster's post below, for instance. Purely imaginary.

            "overwhelmed by the internal contradictions"

            What internal contradictions?

            "misplaced hostility"
            There's not hostility. My original post was meant ironically, but Liberal partisans on this site are too dogmatic to be able to take light criticism.

            "vitriol fueling your responses to others"
            Eh. I don't have vitriol so much as ironic contempt.

            "question the value of public debate on this topic"
            I've never questioned it. I've just suggested that it's not going to have much political impact.

      • brooster

        And, of course, you are the supreme arbiter of internet discourse and the only one qualified to comment on what "nobody" cares about. If you are so disdainful of the caliber of on-line discussion, you could contribute mightily to its improvement by not participating.

        • zwee

          "And, of course, you are the supreme arbiter of internet discourse"

          - Of course, I've never claimed any such thing. When you have to start off a comment by setting up a strawman, that's a good indication that you're full of shi*t.

          "the only one qualified to comment on what "nobody" cares about."

          - Again, nothing like anything that I've said. But when you can't win an argument with an actual human being, you can always try to win one by having one against imaginary opponents. That way, you never lose.

          "If you are so disdainful of the caliber of on-line discussion"

          - Again, reflects nothing that I wrote. The caliber of Macleans.ca discussion is generally pretty good, which is why I visit the site. The fact that the commentary on this thread is so low is a reflection on the specific issues with it, as I mentioned above. Nowhere will you find me expressing "disdain" for the "caliber of on-line discussion" as a whole.

          "you could contribute mightily to its improvement by not participating"

          - Since you've argued entirely against positions that I never stated, and thus which exist only in your head, it seems that your fantasy world is well on track towards becoming a reality for you, if only for so long as you can stay inside of it.

          • brooster

            whatever…I'll quit now…I thought I was having a dialog with a sentient being. My mistake.

          • zwee

            No, your mistake was to have a "dialog" exclusively with positions which you invented. Far from attempting to "dialog with a sentient being", you were attempting to construct an imaginary dialogue with a strawman who exists nowhere outside of your own head. Having a dialogue with a sentient being would involve responding to their actual statements, as opposed to inventing a slew of claims for an imaginary opponent which don't correspond to anything any being which exists outside of your fevered imagination had claimed.

          • Holly Stick

            Zwee, you must be one of the commenters who are paid to post for the Conservative Party line. Whatever they are paying you, you are not worth it.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/TJCook TJCook

      Mark your calendars everybody – a Conbot is born.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

    Don't forget to add the Conservative Party of Canada to your list, Aaron. They have made a great deal of use of the census long form demographic results in tailoring their campaigns and advertising.

  • Wascally Wabbit

    Emily – don't mock the afflicted. Zwee can't help that he wasn't born with a thinker!
    He's used to being fed Soudas snake oil – just explain to him that the census takers will inflate the jobs figures – and if Harper forces an election immediately following those figures being announced – it will look like his economic solutions are actually working!

    • zwee

      This is nonsensical idiocy. Are you retarded or something?

      • Anon 001

        No, but it's pretty clear that you are.

        • zwee

          If you're posting under multiple names you're apparently exhibiting a sort of personality disorder. Alternatively, you're another person attempting to put words into someone else's mouth in which case, well, you're still exhibiting a sort of personality disorder. Seek professional help.

          • Anon 001

            Actually, I post under one name, and, unlike you, I'm not paid by the taxpayer to write.

            I take it back. You're not retarded because, frankly, it would be an insult and injustice to the mentally ill to call you one.

            You are actually choosing to be who you are i.e. a petulant imbecile. Jarrid and wilson, our other Conbot friends, at least have a sense of humour.

            You, on the other hand, seem … well, rather disturbed; alarmingly so, in fact. Smile. Call yourself a jackass once in awhile, it'll loosen you up :-)

  • Emily

    LOL true, mea culpa.

    It just always amazes me that Zwee and his ilk assume that everyone thinks as they do, and if they don't, well then they're trolls.

    Or don't support the troops or something.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

      zwee made one accurate statement which, while it was unfortunately wrong about the recent past, is definitely true of my future: "You're not reading what I write."

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

    The one point that Zweeb missed Aaron is your lack of balance. I am absolutely certain there is a long and impressive list of organizations and individuals in favour of the change. Like Zweeb and…

    • zwee

      Apparently, you think that name-calling is clever. How's this for you then: ass-faced monkey fucker. Or something like that. Haha!

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

      and Gunter, and that guy in BC and Tony and… (I need some help now)

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

        Sunsets are pretty this time of year.

        (Sorry, s'all I got.)

  • Olaf

    I'm sure this has been covered elsewhere, however I ask with genuine curiosity: if the 'voluntary' process of determining demographics and taste is so utterly, irretrievably, disgracefully contrary to the search for truth and goodness – if any such process can only be designed by 'drunken monkeys' – why is it that the most sophisticated political parties (even Obama's, for God's sake!) base their electoral fortunes, corporations wager their shareholders financial fortunes, and academics imperil their professional reputations, on the basis of this type of hopelessly inaccurate data so thoroughly corrupted and rendered useless by the lack of state coercion in its collection?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/ZestyMordant ZestyMordant

      Because they can weight the results of the voluntary polls against the data collected through the census.

      • brooster

        I believe statisticians and pollsters recognize that the identification of intentions, opinions, and preferences through polling is inherently unreliable, more or less ("within 3% margin of error, 19 times out of 20"). That process is NOT the same as harvesting hard demographic facts (e.g., length of time in current residence, number of unrelated occupants in household, to use to arbitrarily chosen examples). These are objective, empirical data that are instrumental in shaping social policy, such as identifying an aging population, a lower than average level of education in a given geographic space, or lack of literacy in English/French, again choosing arbitrarily from myriad examples.

        There is ample evidence that relying on voluntary disclosure of such information may produce biases because of self-selection, which cannot be confidently recognized, let alone corrected.

        Absent reliable hard data, governments are left to shape government economic and social policy based on anecdotes, whims, hunches, and beliefs.

        To paraphrase Churchill, demographic data are among the worst criteria for shaping government policy except for all the rest. I'm dying to know how this benighted government will formulate policy in the absence of reliable data. They'll be left with their own superstitions and good ol' "common sense". Yikes!

        • Olaf

          I understand what you're saying, I really do. Here's what I want. I want you to explain to me, using the statistical methods we all cherish so much, how a voluntary long form survey will be so comparatively inaccurate that 'policy decision A' will be made outside the realm of reasonable decisions. So, the information on 'years living in residence' will be so inaccurate if the form is voluntary compared to if the form is mandatory, that the next government funded "happy five years in residence!" party at the Strathcona community centre in Calgary will be disastrously under-attended. Or that the information received from a voluntary long form will be so inaccurate that the government decides to build a French school in Black Diamond, Alberta, instead of downtown Edmonton, where another is required.

          If the critics said: "in the long run, mandatory data is more reliable than voluntary data, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't make that big of a difference", I'd be perfectly happy to agree. I just don't think this is the end of the world.

          I'm dying to know how this benighted government will formulate policy in the absence of reliable data.

          It's your contention that this benighted government formulates policy on the basis of reliable data?

          • brooster

            The first problem with voluntary long forms is that statistically significant numbers of certain demographic groups may abstain from filling one out, e.g., perhaps, people with lower levels of education, members of particular religious groups, a large segment of the population of rural Alberta, night shift workers, whatever.

            Compounding the statistical issues associated with the first problem is the difficulty scientists would have even finding and correcting for those statistically-significant gaps in response rates. The effort to correct for potential selection-bias would be more expensive and, ultimately still less reliable, than a mandatory long form.

            And again, without significant and expensive pre-testing of the form, it would be hard to identify which questions would deter certain groups from voluntary completion. For example, a particular item might unintentionally alienate people who are pro-life, or opposed to the war in Afghanistan or any other such issue.

            In short, the long form is less expensive and much more reliable, hence useful, than a voluntary one.

          • colin

            I'm a little late to the party, but here's my quick answer:

            There are fundamentally two kinds of sampling techniques: truly random ones, and technically non-random ones. Truly random sampling is difficult, expensive, and never really carried out in practice. Non-random sampling techniques, including in one sense those using clustering or stratification, and in another sense those use voluntary mailouts and internet surveys (e.g. Angus Reid) are in general more cost effective, can be controlled, and can reach target populations more easily if need be. All inferential statistics, from basic descriptors (mean with confidence interval for example) to any sort of modeling relies fundamentally on an assumption of random sampling. However, as I mentioned above, non-random techniques are much more common and open up types of research that are difficult randomly, and also lower cost barriers to research a large amount. As such, the assumption of random sampling is met (with increased standard errors) by weighting the non-random sample on relevant demographic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, education). Really the only such data which is generally trusted, has a large enough sample, is sufficiently random, etc. is the mandatory census and without it the viability and usefulness of non-random sampling techniques is greatly hindered, if not rendered nil. Of course, the other problem with the change is that it renders all comparisons with historical data moot.

  • Olaf

    Right, I remember reading that. Can you link me to someone who explains that process, as patiently as one would to a child? I swear, if there is a single word in the explanation longer than three syllables, I will refuse to read further.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/c_9 c_9

      Here's a made-up attempt:

      If we poll a random subsection of the country on who they'll vote for, no matter what time we call we will always reach some groups more easily, or get willing answers from some groups more easily. For a silly example, let's say we call 4000 Canadians at 2pm. On their home phones. Obviously we'd catch more work-from-home people, more unemployed people, and more stay-at-home caregivers, etc than a truly balanced sample. Let's say they find 400 people who qualify as stay-at-home caregivers, and 37% of them say they vote Tory.

      So we check the census and ask "how many stay-at-home caregivers were there in 2006?" "How quickly has the population gone up?" "What do we think is the likely proportion of that group today?"

      Using that result, a political party can determine that even though 37% of caregivers support them, they are only 6% of the actual population, and they can target their messages elsewhere (if they wish).

      Hope this helps and doesn't take too many liberties with the process that the message is unclear. Also sorry for the 4-syllable words.

  • Olaf

    I stopped reading at "Canadians". But no, that makes sense to a certain extent, thanks. However, if you had a phone poll at about 7pm (which is when all of the phone polls I've been a part of have occurred), you'd get the vast majority of people picking up. You might be out with the 'night shift' crowd, and the data might be skewed by the fact that conservatives have dinner around 4:30 and are in bed by 6, but generally, you'd have a pretty representative sample of the population picking up, at least. Who chooses to answer your questions, on the other hand, might skew the results, although not in a way for which you could correct.

    I'm really not trying to be obtuse, so I'm sorry if I am so being, however I don't buy the suggestion that "voluntary long forms" are the equivalent of a web poll. They seem the equivalent of otherwise relied upon phone polls, that people can choose to participate in or not. So if EKOS calls 1,000 Canadians at 7pm across jurisdictions relative to their population (or voting power), and says "who will you vote for in the next election, Harper or Ignatieff?", do they take those numbers and cross reference them with survey data every time (well, the 2005 census shows that 2% of Canadians work the night shift, and 40% of people who work on the night shift vote Conservative, but only 37% of the people that we polled said they'd vote Conservative, so we should probably bump that number up by a small fraction of a percent. And given that 2.5% said that 12% of Thursday evenings they may or may not be out of the house around 7pm… etc.)? I don't know, maybe they do do that type of thing. I'm just trying to sort out what all the flailing is about.

    • brooster

      The foregoing discussion perfectly underscores the inherently unreliability of polling, as distinct from mandatory census data collection, which, if done correctly, is free from the biases of personal circumstance, convenience or volition. Since I happen to be believe in its social utility (as a planning instrument), I think it should be as compulsory as taxation (and I don't want to live in a libertarian's tax-free world).

      Those who fret about confidentiality should appreciate that StatsCan has a longstanding, international reputation for professionalism in its performance. People should be MUCH more concerned about their Facebook pages than about a census long form.

      And, no, I don't work for the government.

      • Olaf

        Anyway, I don't normally like to tangle with experts (or laymen, for that matter), on a subject upon which I'm grossly uninformed, so I'll just let it be. I guess I'm just having difficulty intuitively understanding how a voluntary consensus form will be so evidently less accurate than a mandatory one as to lead to such a catastrophic effect on government policy making, which seems to be driven far less by actual 'need' or reasoned analysis than 'hey, look, a vote… get 'im!"

        • brooster

          On your final point, we are, alas, in total agreement.

          • Olaf

            I think that if I assumed that well-meaning, logical robots were shaping public policy, I'd be much more concerned about marginally less accurate data – however, any degree of inaccuracy (say, if the numbers were 5% off) produced from this change would seem to either make it 5% harder or 5% easier for politicians to justify doing whatever they wanted and eventually are going to do anyway.

            But thanks to you and c_9 for taking the time to explain the situation to me.

        • http://worthwhile.typepad.com StephenGordon

          Okay, here it is: there is rather a lot of evidence that suggests that low-income households have lower response rates in voluntary surveys; for a recent Canadian study documenting this, see here:
          http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m200…

          This systematically low response rate generates sample (self-)selection bias, and it is a recurring problem for virtually all surveys in which participation is not mandatory. It is possible to correct for it – but only if you know the true distribution of the underlying distribution.

          For example, if you know that those in poverty are (say) 10% of the population and only 5% of your sample, you can re-weight your observations to make the sample representative (roughly speaking, you'd count each low-income response twice). But in order to do this, you need to know that the true proportion is in fact 10%.

          Usually, the source for this sort of information is the census. But if the census itself suffers from selection bias, there's no obvious way to fix it.

          Without the census as an anchor, surveys in both the public and private sector can't be reweighted to generate representative samples. Hence the consternation in the private sector as well as in the research community.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

    If you're interested in measuring the effectiveness of policies, it matters a great deal. Changes in things like poverty rates are almost always very small, so it's important to measure them precisely.

    • Olaf

      The point is, no one makes any decisions based on "very small" changes in poverty rates. It's either something that you consider a problem, or you don't, and very small changes to census data isn't going to affect your decision making process one iota. No one, very least of all elected politicians (activists, academics, columnists, etc. are rarely much better), change their preferred policy prescriptions based on statistics, let alone "very small" changes thereto. Talk to Dan Gardner. Nor do 'very small changes' in poverty rates necessarily help one measure the effectiveness of certain policies, or else we'd have a pretty strong consensus on the cause and cure of poverty in Canada after 30 years worth of correcting data against mandatory census numbers and controlling for economic growth, demographics (age, gender, faith, ideology, etc.), changing societal attitudes, household capacity, and the countless and overlapping policies intended to alleviate it.

  • Holly Stick

    The point about the statistics is to be able to counter the biased opinions and outright lies told by politicians and biased think tanks and repeated by media who are lazy or biased or too ignorant to know better.y When someone makes a statement that is not true, we want to be able to prove that it is not true.

    • Olaf

      Absolutely. So lets counter Fraser institute lies with the unfiltered truth as offered by the CCPA. The falsehoods propagated by the CPC with the inherent veracity of NDP statisticians. The heresy of Corcoran with the unbiased, reality-based prescriptions of Sanford. The evenhandedness of the Toronto Star with the prejudice of the National Post. Am I getting the picture? Do I meet your definition of 'truth-seeking' at this point?

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

        Using what data?

        I think you're being disingenuous. You have never done any statistical work, and you know nothing about statistics. The list above consists of pretty much everyone who does. Being 'skeptical' doesn't absolve you of the obligation to familiarise yourself with the subject at hand. Or to pay attention when things are explained to you.

        • Olaf

          I'm never disingenuous, at least not intentionally. And I realize you're infinitely more learned in the ways of statistical necromancy… er, analysis. But you haven't spoken to any of the sources of my skepticism. I've granted that (and understand why) the data will not be as accurate as it would be with a mandatory form, and I understand why this will make it difficult to assure the veracity of other optional surveys.

          I'm simply asking you to go one step further and explain how the precise measure of a "very small" change in poverty rates, for example, will affect public policy. I agree it's incumbent on those advocating for the change that they provide a better justification than they have, and I don't support the change myself. But if those railing against such a change as if it were the end of truth want to capture the hearts and minds of simple folk like myself, they should probably explain how minor statistical errors produced by selection bias will actually affect policy making in this country, which I submit will not, and you seem to take for granted.

          But if you want to play the "I know what I'm talking about and you don't" card, instead of actually addressing the concerns I've raised, that's certainly an option open to you.

        • Olaf

          Incidentally, the comment you're responding to, which contains no thoughtful concerns whatsoever, was merely a well meaning dig at Holly Stick, who I believe would defend to the grave the precise accuracy for which statistics are used by her preferred political entities (NDP, TorStar, CCPA, etc.), and the gross abuse of those same statistics by political entities with whom she would disagree (CPC, NaPo, Fraser, etc.). The point being, a small change in the accuracy of statistics is not going to change the policy prescriptions of any ideological party. Given the degree to which statistics are abused by political and partisan entities, I have little faith that a somewhat higher degree of inaccuracy will make much a difference in policy making.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/StephenGordon StephenGordon

            Uh huh. Looks to me as though you've moved on to the second round of "where are the goalposts?"

            Why don't you try it the other way: ask yourself how public policy can be conducted without a census.

          • Olaf

            If you'll check above, nothing I said in this comment wasn't said before (voluntary form not as accurate, selection bias certain, etc.), so I'm not sure how I'm shifting goal posts, so much as you're now paying attention to what I said in the first place.

            The thing is, I'm not saying that public policy can't be conducted without the mandatory long form, although you seem to be implying it. I'm saying I think that partisan or ideologically committed observers will stick to their policy choices regardless of small changes in poverty figures, the percentage of individuals who identify their religion as "Jedi", or years living in a certain residence. I'm asking you to defend the notion that because of this change to the census, public policy with tangibly and necessarily shift in an unreasonable direction due to the inherent census inaccuracy. If the census shows, for example, that 15% of individuals are below the LICO, when actually the number is 20%, how will this make any practical difference?

          • Olaf

            Further, I trust that because the figures will be so inaccurate under the new regime, so thoroughly tainted, so statistically impious, that you'll disavow using any of the census numbers collected by a voluntary form, and laugh heartily at the numbers derived from voluntary surveys (where any selection bias would have otherwise been cured by a mandatory long form), in your analyses.

  • brooster

    Those are all matters of judgment, opinion, and personal values and the census deals with almost none of that stuff, so its not a concern to demographers at StatsCan.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/JOHN_29 JOHN_29

    After reading all this political bickering, I can't believe people are ignoring one of the most important issue. This new voluntary survey will cost MORE MONEY and be LESS USEFUL. When is the last time you went to a restaurant and paid for steak and sent it back requesting a can of spam at the same price? Spend my tax dollars wisely! If you’re going to conduct the survey, do it properly and listen to the experts. If not then can the survey and save us the 35 million dollar piece of garbage.

    • brooster

      I agree totally. in fact, your observation echoes a comment I made yesterday in an exchange with Olaf.

  • http://twitter.com/RJodo @RJodo

    You forgot the Canada West Foundation in Calgary http://blog.cwf.ca/2010/07/12/canadas-census-hand…

  • PES

    The Conservative position is a gamble. There is ample reason to predict that participation rates will go down, and no way to predict how far.

    It's entirely possible the response rate will be so low, the entire long form census will be useless even as a stand-alone survey.

    The Conservatives are throwing away our money on a bad bet.

    But what do I care? I'm just a small business owner who votes.

  • http://intensedebate.com/profiles/capdu Kristi

    To the list, please add the Canadian Association of Public Data Users (http://www.capdu.ca and http://capdu.wordpress.com).

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