Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

When a Conservative loses the Post, what's left?

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, July 16, 2010 10:37am - 0 Comments

Not even the National Post editorial board can find the courage to defend Tony Clement.

This is profoundly undignified governance. If, as it seems, the government cannot defend changing the census on any logical, resonant or particularly urgent grounds, it should abandon the undertaking until it’s prepared to do so.

Tags: census, National Post, Statistics Canada, Tony Clement

More by Aaron Wherry

Standing By

I'm looking for the response of Stats Can to Clements suggestion yesterday that making the long-form census voluntary was actually the idea of Stats Can, who has no problem with proceeding this way.

Yesterday you wrote that you submitted a query to StatsCan on this, so why the delay? I'd expect Canada's hitherto-silent chief statistician would want to be right on that.

Hope you're not holding back on us. Let the chief statistician speak!

http://intensedebate.com/people/WDM WDM

Jennifer Ditchburn mentioned on P&P last night that the claim that this was StatsCans idea was completely incorrect. The government approached Stats Canada about doing this, not the other way around.

Standing By

JD on P&P is fine, but if she is correct, then Tony lied, and I just can't see that happening.

This is why we need to hear the chief statistician speak out on this.

I'm sure it's not like he's intimidated or muzzled. I'm sure he is just now seeing Aaron's message from yesterday, and we'll know soon the truth of this matter.

Cats

Umm they're both right.

Clement approach Stats Canada and said "give me options to fix this" and they did and this is the one he chose.

Duh. Best fishes.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Geiseric Geiseric

It's quite possible StatsCan presented it as an option only to explain why it's unacceptable and recommend against it. Leaving that last part out wouldn't actually be lieing, would it?

Andrew (not PorC)

Here's a hint: Stats Can isn't allowed to speak to the public, except through the government's messaging department.

Standing By

Surely that can't be true! Not in Harper's open and transparent Ottawa!

http://intensedebate.com/people/PolJunkie PolJunkie

Didn't you hear? Bureaucrats aren't allowed to speak to reporters. Don't hold your breath waiting on this one.

Emily

Yet they seem to be digging in their heels. Strange way to run a country.

Standing By

Not when your main perceived constituency is right-wing US bloggers and teabaggers.

Emily

Well he seems to have goofed majorly on that. Yesterday the Jewish and Evangelical communities came out opposing the move.

And how many bunkers can there be in Canada compared to the mainstream?

Standing By

I'm sure those Canadian organizations aren't on the radar of the right-wing US bloggers and teabaggers who help to set Harper's agenda.

Emily

I don't understand his pandering to the extreme right-wing. They think Harper himself is leftwing and want him replaced with a 'real' conservative….but they aren't ever going to vote Lib or NDP either.

So he isn't about to lose his base, even if he eats live puppies on TV.

The worst they could do is stay home on election day, but not only are they enamoured of their right to vote, they fear the return of the Libs so much….they'd just hold their noses and vote for Harper again.
Standing By

I think any confusion about Harper's intentions can be cleared up when you consider the following:

- that Harper knows he is never going to be a majority PM (after 4 years, his support is down, not up)
- that he expects to step aside after the next election (whether or not he gets another minority)
- that he now putting in place "legacy initiatives" which long-term and aim to keep moving Canada further to the right after he departs (likely for a new career in the U.S as a notable right-wing thinker)

His main new legacy initiative right now is Fox News North. On this, there is no doubt that Harper will over-rule the CRTC and make it mandatory for all Canadians to pay for this right-wing news (sic) channel.

The StatsCan census debacle is a similar legacy item. It is well thought-out, and he will not back down on it because he knows that if the data needed for smart social policy is corrupted, then it will make it more difficult to oppose ideology-driven social policies favoured by his teabaggers constituency.

That's how I see it anyway…
Emily

I don't know that Harper is that realistic. He's certainly going nowhere in the polls, but I'd bet he's still hoping for a 'killer blow' that would give him a majority.

He's on a 'mission from God' after all.

Yeah, he'd be happy to overrule the CRTC….I thought Simpson was very naive about this.

And you could be right about the census….although surely, surely he knows that future govts can easily reinstate it.

Or maybe he's just pushing the envelope to see how much he can get away with. He seems to be very big on 'dares'.
http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

…"He's on a 'mission from God' after all."

Says who??
sbt

The voices. Can't you hear them?
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

Don't bother them with facts. They live in their own little fantasy world.
Emily

I take it you're still in Japan…and on a news blackout.
Jan

George Bush passed along the message – from God.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

I'm fairly certain that was a Blues Brothers reference.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

It might not be so easy to reinstate–at least, you'd still have a glitch in the data for however long before it is reinstated.
Emily

Yes, the data would be skewed for some time, but it could be reinstated.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

As much as Harper's refusal to cede to the obvious across-the-board outrage on the census issue infuriates me, I do take some small solace in imagining that his primary legacy, once someone else takes power and reinstates the mandatory long-form, could be an asterisk beside a few years in our nation's statistics, with the de facto footnote "unreliable for comparative purposes due to ideological vandalism from the PMO of that period".

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

also of interest

SUNshine Girl Natasha, 18, loves numbers — so much so, she became a statistician. Natasha spends her time at the beach looking for the perfect mate: a younger version of Prominent Laval stud Stephen Gordon willing to join forces with her to protect all things numerical, at least on average. (Mark O'Neill photo)

http://intensedebate.com/profiles/kittyburgers kittyburgers

Yeah, you've got it right. This is a non-issue and a non-story. Nobody is talking about this and it isn't important. There are other things going on in the world other than this domestic issue that we should truly be concerned about. It is nothing more than a media distraction.

Amateur Hour

"Nobody is talking about this and it isn't important. "

Funny, 'cuz I just to a glance at two recent census stories from the G&M … both had more than 1,000 comments.

Then there are the dozens of organizations representing thousands of professionals … but I guess they're nobodies, too, right?

Type "Canada census" into Google News and then tell me again that "nobody is talking about it."
Jan

Oh – the 'nobody at Timmies cares' talking point. God, that's getting old.

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

It's amazing how many people just don't see the advantage that Harper has on this … in point of fact the more people whine, complain, render their garments, ashen their hair and cry ulululu the better – this file goes right to the heart of the Conservative philosophy and is tailor made for Conservative fundraising and motivating the base. Folks understand this – right now the key to power in Canada is keeping your base happy and then reaching out .. if you don't agree with me just look at Iggy … this file goes right to the heart of the constant encroachment by the Liberala mindset of the Nanny State! It could even cost Harper a ferw votes and he would still gain … believe it!

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

Ah, I KNEW you'd come along and present the upside theory on behalf of Harper. You're as predictable as the sunrise.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ottawa_Centrist Ottawa_Centrist

It's such a brilliant strategy. I hope he continues to neuter the effectiveness and legitimacy of the state while rapidly expanding it.

Amateur Hour

You nailed it: Bigger, dumber, less effective.

Standing By

No-one is arguing that there is not a teabagger constituency in Canada, albeit a small one.

But how many of those right-wing extremists do you think don't already know that Harper is their guy?
http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

What base and at what expense to the rest of your "base"?

Some small minority within the "conservative side of the Conservative Party" is delighted with this, I'm sure. But that is only small minority.

Harper is in a minority. The majority of voters and seats are not his. As with any government, it got to power with a lot of people's support who were pissed off with someone else not, in this case, because of their ideology but because of their attitude and competence and lack of accountability. Harper has thrown out any semblance of caring about accountability and any care what people think of his attitude. Decisions like this and the G20 and our finances go to the heart of competence. Slowly he chips away at the casual supporters as more and more get pissed off with his decisions.

In Canada, the key to power is to be seen as being guided by competence and good governance and the interests of the country, and not narrow ideological points.

Cats

Yeah like Warrren Kinsella.

He's definetly part of the base!

LOL Cats caught a mouse!

Standing By

Kinsella really is the gift that keeps on giving to Harper…
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ottawa_Centrist Ottawa_Centrist

If Clement's only support is the most despised (by many c/Conservatives) ex-Liberal staffer in memory, then that Cat don't hunt.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Be fair to Kinsella, he's inspired plenty of Liberals to despise him too.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

You are not of course the first to note that there is a financial advantage for Harper in this. (you could look at the comments under Aaron's first posting) It is also clear this is not election issue material.

Along with the GST cut and the firearm registry, this is a fairly clear and relatively simple example that Harper is willing to forego good governance for short term political or financial gain. In all 3 examples, there was consensus from the experts that this was clearly bad policy, but there was an advantage to Harper's base.

Ignatieff will never "win" an election. (That little quote was a freebie for you & yours to pull out of context when you want.) Of course, we did not elect Harper either… Canadians threw out Martin; the fact that Harper became PM was a by-product. Indeed, Canadians have very rarely elected an opposition leader as PM… rather they throw out sitting PM's they are fed up with, plug their noses and accept the alternative as a less offensive choice.

In Ontario, a pretty popular David Peterson found out what happened when the electorate catches on you are playing too much politics. Harper's not been caught out yet, but for a struggling author he is composing a compelling narrative.
http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

I'm not so sure this is such a good strategy for the PM. It is a poor decision that cannot be defended.

Let's see if Tony Clement is moved in a Cabinet shuffle and the new minister quietly changes the approach, possibly by offering incentives to fill in the long form rather than going after people for breaking the law. I personally believe the long form should be mandatory, but find the threat of jail time excessive and unrealistic if indeed that is the case.
http://intensedebate.com/profiles/rateldajer Mark Crowley

sure it plays well to his base but that doesn't make it acceptable (not that you're claiming it does). But it also doesn't mean you shouldn't call them out on it. The opposition can't avoid taking a stand on issues that happen to make fundraising easier to the Conservatives. They need to stand by their principles (whatever they are) and believe that their own base is larger than the Conservative one, then they would win an election. There is no reason this kind of issue can't galvanize Liberal voters, it is further evidence of a Conservative government that has no regard for the important work that government does. It wants to cut taxes even when the money is needed, cut data collection that is needed, avoid regulation and incentives for the environment that could help. Its all part of the same story that hte Conservative don't think government is for anything other than putting people in prison for longer and buying bigger weapons to help America fight its wars. That may invigorate the Conservative base but it should do exactly the same for the opposition base.

Mike T.

It's research – they've enacted bad policy, they've ignored orders of parliament, they've broken promises, they've ignored their own fixed election law. Now they want to do something that has no strategic or practical benefit, and see what happens. Just how docile are the 36% credulous enough to give us this minority government, they wonder.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

It is after all fairly well known that the Editorial Board of the National Post is a fetid hive of Liberal toadies and hacks using their ill-gotten numbers to assist the Taliban, promote gay pride parades and bust mass murderers out of federal prisons.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

Don't forget about attacking the troops.
Anon 001

That's El Harpo for you. Act first, think later. The mind of a Great Strategist ™ at work. Watch and learn, people.

Olaf

Can anyone remember a more complete and utter concensus regarding any policy issue over the past five years? Stephen Harper: Uniting Canadians One Policy At A Time.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

I seem to recall the proposed anthem change of the words was a pretty complete consensus of rejection.

Olaf

Yea, that was a bit of a flop too. Although certainly there were one or two groups (feminists perhaps? I don't recall) who would have supported the change.

Mike T.

I think most women's groups recognized it for the clumsy sop it was and eschewed it in favour of actual positive policy.

http://intensedebate.com/people/tedbetts tedbetts

LOL.

It really is an amazing kind of policy making.

Usually, at the very least, there is some tidbit of support you can find from some non-party member for whatever policy. Like finding the one economist who thinks cutting the GST while increasing income taxes was a good thing, or the one economist who said there was no way there was going to be a recession in 2008 or 2009. Scratch the last one: we made him Prime Minister.
http://intensedebate.com/people/tobyornotoby tobyornotoby

We were pretty united in our contempt for Brian Mulroney in 1993, voted against him from coast to coast even though he wasn't running.

Olaf

That was both not less than five years ago and Brian Mulroney is not a policy issue. But otherwise I guess it would fit my criteria.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Over the past five years? How about in living memory?

bergkamp

"That might not be the end of the world, but it’s of understandable concern to everyone from academics, to municipalities who use census data to fine-tune the delivery of services, to corporations who use the data for marketing campaigns. Dozens of organizations from the C.D. Howe Institute to the United Way have come out against the move." Nat Post

It up to government to justify its intrusion into my private life and if this is the best they can do for justification than I am not at all surprised long form is no longer mandatory. This is about control and power and nothing at all to do with delivery of better services.

Why is government – Canadian tax payers – involved in any way shape or form helping private orgs with their marketing campaigns? The massive subsidies aren't enough, apparently, now we have to pay to help companies with their marketing. And is anyway really bothered we will have fewer inane studies from academics telling us people who sit in chairs all day are more prone to fatness than those who do physical labour all day.

However, I do wish Clement and other Cons talked like conservatives when defending their decisions. This Con government is doing nothing to advance conservatism within Canada and their legacy will be that they confused Canadians about differences between Libs and Cons. Well done Harper, you should be so proud.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

"This is about control and power and nothing at all to do with delivery of better services."

Please do elaborate!

Emily

Well see if the govt knows how many bedrooms you have, they can um blackmail you or something.

wilson

National and provincial Real Estate associations have all that information, and more.

Emily

So….no blackmail. LOL
MostlyCivil

"National and provincial Real Estate associations have all that information, and more."

Which they compare against the Census for accuracy…yes? Or do you just know the ones who don't sell much?

bergkamp

Census is one way government implements its learned helplessness agenda. Government wants everyone to be dependent on it, and others, and make them think they are incapable of looking after themselves.

Is it any surprise the well known bolshie PM Trudeau introduced the long form? Trudeau, and others of his ilk, want to destroy the individual and make us dependent on government.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ricard_S_Argent Richard_S_Argent

Please expand further!

Mike T.

Why must you encourage him/her/it?

Jan

So, bergkamp, you don't want government anticipating your need for bypass surgery when you reach a certain age?

John D

"his is about control and power and nothing at all to do with delivery of better services."
http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/4/201…
Anon 001

SUN/Kory/Ezra editorials are on their side.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Add Kinsella, and they've got a real tower of power going. We'd best give up before they crush us with their mastery of statistics, zest for freedom from tyranny, and overall intellectual heft.

wilson

What information from the long form census can not be found from another reliable source,
and information that is current rather than 5 years old?

http://intensedebate.com/people/ZestyMordant ZestyMordant

Some of the individual data points could be found elsewhere, but there are major problems with that.

1. The data points couldn't be linked. For example, if Statistics Canada was allowed to gather income information from taxes, and education information from school and university databases, you couldn't analyze how education affects income. Not only is this used by policy planners, universities and other organizations, it can be very useful for individuals planning their own career.

2. Not only could you not link the data, but the data would not be reliable anyway. It would be nearly impossible to standardize data collection methodology, which means that the internal validity of the data suffers.

3. Needless to say, it would cost much more money to gather and assemble the data, probably by a couple orders of magnitude.
http://intensedebate.com/people/ZestyMordant ZestyMordant

4. It has the potential to be much more intrusive, cause many more privacy concerns and be at least as coercive.

To assemble similar data using other sources, even if other sources existed, would be to allow all of these sources to share personal information about you with the federal government. How could you be sure that they are only sharing the information that is absolutely required?

Transferring all this data around is always concerning for privacy, just because there is so much potential for the data to be accidentally released or leaked. This concern is much lessened by having a single agency responsible and accountable for collecting the data.

Would you be allowed to prevent your school board from sharing information with the government? If yes, the data is not reliable. If no, it's just as coercive as a mandatory census.
Amateur Hour

Those other "reliable sources" either extract their data from the census itself or use the census to test the veracity of their own data.

(PS: Don't tell me I don't know what I'm talking about, because I'm at my desk right now, doing this as part of my job.)

wilson

a Conbot speaks out against the long form:

Mr. Kinsella reveals how he once refused to fill out the long-form questionnaire, which asks Canadians more than 50 detailed questions about their home, work life and ethnicity.

Ultimately, he said, the census takers simply gave up trying to make him complete it. "When I got the long form census many years ago, I thought it was very intrusive," he said.

He said he challenged census staff to punish him. "I said 'I am not going to change my mind. Put me in jail. I dare you'," Mr. Kinsella explains. "So they gave me an exemption."

He predicts Ottawa would have run into problems if a Canadian challenged the mandatory long-form in court as an affront to privacy rights.

sbt

And with his one refusal Kinsella (and Stats Canada who gave him an exemption) screwed up the random sampling methodology and rendered the data from that census year totally useless.
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

Yes, that rabid right-winger Kinsella. Though it is always good to see him go against the Liberal grain, I suspect he's only doing it to diffuse any momentum Iggy might get on this issue.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

When a Conservative loses the Post, what’s left?

Lefties losing Aaron Wherry? Frank Graves?

http://intensedebate.com/people/MostlyCivil MostlyCivil

Oooohhh, way to deflect the….hold on…

No, actually, you didn't really do anything with that post. You neither provided a satirical spearing of the original point nor did you provide a humourous or ironic example to contrast.

This post goes into the "tried too hard" pile. Up there with Emily and Wilson's best…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

Then why in the world did you spend all that effort trying to critique it? lol. Next.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Dennis_F Dennis_F

Then why make all that effort critiquing it? Geez. Next.

Pat

Kinsella is on his side.
Anon

It makes sense. I'm sure that the mountain-sized ego of Kinsella would believe that the entire world is just WAITING to see what he's going to put on that form.
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

Weird, eh? Up is down. Black is white. Cats are chasing dogs.
Amateur Hour

Kinsella is on Kinsella's side … only and always.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Cats are chasing dogs.

As long as that keeps them busy and off these boards, I'm fine with it.
Pat

I would agree with that.