Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Picking sides

by Aaron Wherry on Wednesday, July 21, 2010 11:08am - 0 Comments

At last count, the Industry Minister had identified 10 people on Twitter who support his decision on the census.

Those who oppose the change now include the governments in at least four provinces.

Tags: census, Manitoba, ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Statistics Canada, Tony Clement

More by Aaron Wherry

Mike T.

yeah, but nine of those are because his aide didn't realize he was hitting SEND repeatedly, so sent the message over and over again.
JamesHalifax

Who gives a rats asz what someone like Dalton Mcginty thinks? If anyone thinks old McSlippery has any concerns other than squeezing out some political hay over this, they are just as deluded as those who insist we keep the census mandatory on pain of jail or fine.

John D

I hope you guys have a macro or something for "on pain of jail or fine." If I had to keep typing that all day it would get pretty boring.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Ottawa_Centrist Ottawa_Centrist

I don't like McGuinty much either, but this is one of the few times he has loaned support to anything that is actually of benefit to Ontarians.

http://intensedebate.com/people/LynnTO LynnTO

I choose the side of methodologically sound Census data.
Lord Kitchener's Own

Surely people are tweeting Clement in opposition to the change as well, no? Any idea what the pro to anti ratio is just on Clement's twitter feed (given that the Minister seems to be judging public opinion based largely on the "twitterverse" – and no, I still can't believe a Minister of the Crown actually made serious reference to the "twitterverse" in a media interview – it would seem to be an important bit of info).

Mike T.

We find that data too intrusive to make available here.
http://jemebranlelacervelle.com Dominique Noel

If you search tweets containing @TonyClement_MP on Twitter, it seems like most tweets addressed to the Minister are against the move, and asking Clement to reconsider.

Now, on the other end, the first poll came out about the Census debate – 49% Canadians are for, 51% against. I am kind of suprised about that.

EDIT : Again, my data about Twitter might be inaccurate – people who tend to address Tony Clement directly are most likely against. The people who are for the move won't necessairly write to Clement to congratulate him…

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

They certainly show up on every internet forum in the country over the past couple of weeks, so I'm not sure what would stop them from addressing Clement directly, especially when the weight of consensus is so strongly against him and he needs all the friends he can find.

http://intensedebate.com/people/psiclone psiclone

funny I see a lot more support on Twitter

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Do you also see Russia from your porch?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

Provinces are really just special interest groups for Canadians that live inside their territory. We need to listen to real Canadians like Tony!

http://intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

The most important question is: does Tim Hortons use census data?

Dave

Oh, hell yes.

http://intensedebate.com/people/charlesh Charles H.

Well, that's that then, isn't it? If Tim Hortons — arbiter of the common man, the Average Joe, the little guy (but not one from Shawinigan) — says it's OK, then it's obviously OK.

Patchouli

Bugs me that a Minister of the Crown only publicly thanks and recognizes those who agree with his polcy stance; dissenters are ignored or berated. Tony, the dissenters are voters and taxpayers too. Listen to all of us.
wilson

If McGuinty is running Ontario based on 5 year old data,
no wonder he's got troubles!
wilson

Do those 4 provinces only rely on census data that is mandatory, carrying a threat of fine or jail time?

If StatsCan says a larger sampling of voluntary respondents will provide as reliable data as a mandatory census,
then where the beef?

Cost?
Charge it out to the end users.

http://intensedebate.com/people/ZestyMordant ZestyMordant

"If StatsCan says a larger sampling of voluntary respondents will provide as reliable data as a mandatory census,
then where the beef?"

…and we've come full circle. The first talking point in support of this move was that the voluntary survey was as reliable as a mandatory census, then that quickly got slapped down by everyone with a basic understanding of statistics. Now we're right back at that failed argument, via several other failed arguments.

How boring. I'm looking forward to getting back to the jedi talking points (which others have debunked as a protest against organized religion, and therefore applicable only to that question).

wilson

Why is it a failed argument,
it is StatsCan's advice that a larger sampling + more promo = same reliability as a mandatory census.

Coupled with the FACT that organizations use a multiple of 'voluntary' census' in their decision making.

This has been one big wafer chasing antiCon media driven bit of summer nonsense.

http://intensedebate.com/people/ZestyMordant ZestyMordant

"it is StatsCan's advice that a larger sampling + more promo = same reliability as a mandatory census."

There is nothing to suggest that this was the case. Clement himself said that the advice StatsCan gave him is confidential. I'm really hoping to hear more from StatsCan about this today. Every other statistician that is allowed to speak on the matter has disagreed with this.

"organizations use a multiple of 'voluntary' census' in their decision making"

I see you're already on to failed argument number 2. Organizations that use voluntary surveys (very different than 'census'!!!) in their decision making weight the responses against mandatory census data. How many more before we're back to the jedi?

wilson

Well Zesty, after a weeks long, one sided antiCon media extravaganza on the issue
HALF of Canadian 'voters' agree with the government on making the long form voluntary.

Organizations don't vote.
Gayle

You know what. I agree with you.

This government is not at all about doing what is in the best interests of the country. This government is about pandering to its base, and lying to Canadians about the value of what they are doing. So yay – half of Canadians agree the government should do the wrong thing and waste our money. Yay!!!

http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

That's a fair enough argument (for last week). But show me where StatsCan has said that–without going through Clement. If StatsCan could speak to the media directly, and they said that, then your point would win the day, I think. But not only do you have pretty much every statistician saying it ain't so, you also have a concrete example of a census that was made voluntary not providing good data. That example is right next door in the United States. So what is the difference between our two populations that would allow Canada to be successful with the same technique the Americans failed at?

I'm asking this of you, Wilson. I'd like you to reply to it before I see this same talking point coming from you somewhere else.

http://intensedebate.com/people/MostlyCivil MostlyCivil

Statscan is on gag order. Friend of mine works there, told me so. From a distance. Through an anonymous mail drop. Written with his left hand. With her purple crayon. That he took from her manager.

They'd love to talk.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Stewart_Smith Stewart_Smith

The argument that it is due to being "advice to Cabinet" strikes me as completely bogus. True, actual advice given about the options may be off limits, but the dry-as-toast analysis of how a voluntary census can be equivalent to a mandatory should be on their website by now.
wilson

Anonymous sources say……Iffy has a job at UofT, they'd love to talk too!

http://intensedebate.com/people/MostlyCivil MostlyCivil

Yep. When all else fail…pull out the shiny object.

Weak, wilson.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

When cornered:
- Iffy
- Shawinigate/Adscam
- lie about polls
- lie about plain, unambiguous statements made by others
- "LOL, next"

wilson

As I always do, my TALKING POINTS come from researching sources other than our national media.
Here is the source I chose.
The difference…. done monthly,
and the conclusions…. increase the sample size to get equal reliability (which is what the Govt of Canada is going to do)

''…If the American Community Survey were made voluntary,
the Census Bureau concluded that it would have to mail survey forms to **** a larger number of households and conduct a larger number of follow-up phone or personal interviews in order to assure the same quality of results that it promises from the mandatory survey.
Thus, a voluntary survey would cost at least $59.2 million more, in 2005 fiscal-year dollars, than a mandatory survey, the bureau concluded.'' http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1655/should-census-su…

Jenn_

Hey, where'd my answer go? I started by praising you for having a reasonable response, with link no less! I'm impressed. But then I went into the math, and I am NOT doing that again! Anyway, my point was that as per your great link, the problem seems to be that the follow-up interviews themselves could skew the data. So, presumably the increase in the number of households is needed so that they get the same response rate as prior, mandatory questionnaire's, without so many follow up interviews. And that (I really did do the math before) means more than 30% of households need to get our voluntary survey, which is all Clement is proposing, and even at that too-small rate, it is $30 million extra in spending.

Unfortunately, I don't see where Pew counters the argument that increasing the study size would mean more of the "at risk for underrepresentation" population would be increasingly underrepresented.
Halo_Override

But how do the Jedi and the rest of the Alliance scum fit into that?

Is the Empire trying to squeeze more money out of StatsCan so they can finish up the Death Star?

Thwim

So the additional cost of 30 million dollars for the voluntary long form works out to a bill for the rest of us at about 3 million per Clement supporter.

Hmm.. so maybe that is some value for money.. after all, you'd have to pay me more than that to get me to support Clement.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

You have principles, I admire that. I'd totally spend a few hours a day lying on the internet if Fat Tony gave me 3 million.

http://intensedebate.com/people/MostlyCivil MostlyCivil

30 million, or 300 gazebos.

That's a lot of gazebos…

gazebo.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Two character-brainfart moments from Twin Peaks that make me chuckle every time:

Leland Palmer: "Hospital."

Dr Jacoby: "Gazebo."

http://intensedebate.com/people/Thwim Thwim

Simple cost-benefit analysis. The amount of hot water and soap I'd have to use to get the feeling of stink off of me compared to what I'd receive.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

I'm NDP, we don't bathe.

JamesHalifax

Halo_Override wrote:
"I'm NDP, we don't bathe. "

I bet if other people paid for your water you would.

JamesHalifax

LYnnTO wrote:'
" choose the side of methodologically sound Census data"

So do I LynnTO…….

By the way, to which Order of the Jedi Knights do you belong?