Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Reality and perception

by Aaron Wherry on Saturday, July 24, 2010 12:12pm - 0 Comments

The Globe and Star survey the reach and impact of the census. CP considers the political calculation.

While belief in the change runs deep in the government, communicating that belief could have been much better, said Tim Powers, a conservative strategist. But the Conservatives see no reason to back down, despite the outcry.

“The Prime Minister is not going to be heart broken over a division between elites and Main Street,” Powers said. Till now, the experts have been good at putting forward their arguments, while the Tories have been less together, he said.

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  • Geiseric

    Don't hate the specialist. Hate the specialtly.

    Education is becoming a political liability?

  • Jan

    It's more like a division between smart and really dumb.

    • wilson

      OMG, 38% of coalition LibDippers agree with the government, and are really dumb.

      • Wascally Wabbit

        Dear wilson – you crack me up! Either you believe these talking points – or I give you an "A" in sarcasm!

        • wilson

          (sarc)
          It's not a smart or dumb issue, not a Con or Lib issue,
          it's a public debate, and I am thoroughly enjoying it!

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Party_of_One Party_of_One

    So, you have to be "elite" to value fact-based decision making?

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

      No. You are "elite" if you perform the fact-based decision making.

      If you value it, you're Taliban. And probably a Commie. Gay too, no doubt.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/MacCross MacCross

        You forgot separatists and people who hate our our troops.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

          You forgot separatists…

          Nah, separatists are fine. As long as they're Albertan.

          • http://notquiteunhinged.blogspot.com Catelli

            Well all conservatives are apparently separatists. They want to separate "Main Street" from the elites.

  • Transportation

    Apparently after voting Conservative/PC all my life, I am now one of those elites whose concerns should be disregarded.

    • Greg

      That about sums it up.

  • Emily

    Harper is trying to start a class war in the firm belief that 'regular people' outnumber the 'elites'.

    He's unaware that in Canada everyone, including himself, is considered middle-class.

    • Jan

      He might want to check the stats on education levels in Canada.

      • Standing By

        Sorry, that would require data. Better he just act in keeping with what he imagines the situation to be.

      • Emily

        Stats….ha ha ha…yer funny!

        Like Harper would ever use stats for anything….well….except his thesis.
        http://www.cyberpresse.ca/place-publique/opinions…

        • Jan

          He relied on the long form data for his masters thesis. Say what? Gee, maybe we can sue him for violating the Geneva Convention. Stockwell seems to think the long form violates it.

          • Emily

            That's okay, Gonzales told Bush the Geneva Convention was quaint and obsolete anyway. Stock needs to keep up. LOL

          • Jan

            That anyone of them would reference the GC at this point – not a good idea. But that's why these guys are so much fun when they start yapping.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

      Harper is trying to start a class war.

      Remember the CPC outrage over Frank Graves' suggestion that the Liberals should counter the CPC's culture war with a culture war of their own? "We're not conducting a culture war, you paranoid lefty!" the Harperoids screeched.

      Now we have "Main Street" being pitted against "the elites". Precious.

  • Standing By

    The Prime Minister is not going to be heart broken over a division between elites and Main Street,” Powers said.

    I'd say the real heartbreak for Harper will come when he sees today's poll and realizes that there is no significant division on this between elites and Main Street.

    He will, of course, then ponder the most important political question for him: "What do U.S. right-wing bloggers and tea party activists think of me now?"

    • Transportation

      It can't be a coincidence that our census issues are coming on the heels of Tea Party's anti-census campaign in the US http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/29/barac…

      • Standing By

        I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think Harper's world view is significantly informed by what he reads on right wing US blogs, and has been for a long time. I also think his post-PM career plans also require that he maintain cred with U.S. bloggers and the tea party crowd. (As in, he sees his future as a "former conservative statesman" more tied in to Washington than Canada.)

        • Geiseric

          It's not the popular front itself that he's got his heart set on impressing, otherwise…

          bingo

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

          And finally, the real reason is revealed at last.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Dubh Dubh

          Rove et al. may be advising the Harpercons directly. Sociopaths of a feather flock together.

      • wilson

        Being a person who says they have voted Con/PC all their life,
        rather surprising seeing you jump into Liberal talking points re: Tea Party

        • Pat

          Maybe because these particular "talking points" also happen to be true.

          • wilson

            They are talking points, voluntary, and therefore can't be assumed reliable.

          • Pat

            Except that it is obvious that this move by Harper relates to tea parties. Just because the liberals point that out does not make it untrue, nor does it mean, as you imply, that Transportation has not voted conservative all his life.

        • Jan

          Are you accusing David Frum of being a Liberal wilson. Check out the Frumformand see how much consensus there is on the Tea party.

          • wilson

            Don't pay much attention to American politics Jan, so can't answer that.
            Frankly Scarlet…..

            but I have noticed that all those 'Obama connections in high places' haven't yet paid off for you leader.

        • Wascally Wabbit

          We are testing the theory that ideologue Righties believe that you can fool most of the people all the time…
          To the point Republicans are now trying to resuscitate Dubya and are blaming Obama for the Gulf War!

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            And also the banking problems, don't forget that.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/M_A_D_world M_A_D_world

          The Conservative Party in it's own right is a coalition of of supporters. By Harpers own writings, they are the three sisters; Western Populism, Quebec Conservatives and Eastern Tories. Right now he is ignoring his own thesis of honest compromise is needed to keep those voting blocks together.
          If he wants to walk down the path of the Republican Party than he has the wrong citizenship.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            Well, of course he's ignoring his own thesis! It was corrupted by statistics.

        • Transportation

          I'm not saying the Reform wing of the Conservatives is "Tea Party North"… but I am wondering if they wanted to do this since 2006 or if this just got pushed forward or at least made more popular within the party following recent events in the US

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

            I will, then.

            The Reform wing of the Conservatives is Tea Party North.

            Socially extreme-right, allergic to facts, reliant on fundamental misrepresentations of American history for their raison d'etre, conveniently choosy with their application of libertarianism.

  • NorthernPoV

    The CP article has the best insight into how the Harper thugs see this.
    Just another battle with the pointy heads who get in the way of their agenda.

    The prorogation brouhaha is seen as sort of a win by the center/center-left. No such thing. It only riled up those who will never vote Tory, came across as "more baffling, squabbling politicians" to the crucial swing voters and best of all it kicked the detainee can far enough down the road till the Liberals caved and gave Harper his way.
    I can't remember the entire litany of the-death-of-thousand-cuts we've been living through but here is a partial list of the things trashed (and related transgressions) in the past four years: Parliamentary committees, Election financing laws, Elections Canada, Meat inspection, agricultural standards, wheat board, nuclear safety commission, rights & democracy, courts challenges funding, Income Trusts, civil liberties at home and abroad, Mulrooney inquiry, political ads outside the writ period, character assassination of their opponents, Parliament, Stats Can… and the beat goes on

    Harper knows that destroying our civil society will get messy and I think, this latest controversy is just what he expected and welcomes.

    Have a nice day. ;-(

    • Standing By

      Yeah, but I think he felt he would at least hold broad support for this change in his own party, which today's poll shows not to be the case. So he may have to rethink this one after all.

  • Patchouli

    So what are you going to do about that?

  • Gayle

    “The Prime Minister is not going to be heart broken over a division between elites and Main Street,” Powers said.

    It is always "Us" v. "Them" with this government.

    Sigh…

  • Matlock

    Anyone else here know that the Labour Force Survey also asks how many bedrooms you have in your house?
    http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/71-543-g/2010001/app…

    In light of that, I wonder if this will be the next target for the government (indeed, if this is a CPC talking point, I fail to see why the census should be voluntary and the LFS stay mandatory).

    The reason I point this out is because of the underlying irony of making the LFS voluntary…. Stephen Harper used LFS data in his Masters' thesis.
    https://dspace.ucalgary.ca/handle/1880/24345

    I wonder if Mr. Harper would be able to justify degrading a data set that he himself has used (and which, had the LFS been voluntary instead of mandatory, would have considerably undermined the findings of his thesis.)

  • Gaunilon

    I, for one, would certainly appreciate a thorough justification and explanation from the government concerning their thinking on this.

    In fact I'll go farther: they owe me (and every citizen) that explanation, in full, and I will hold it against them if that is not forthcoming.

    • wilson

      I also want to know why 3 weeks prior to his resignation, Sheikh advised Canadians in the Gazette, that it was full steam ahead with the changes.
      Why not until AFTER the 'experts/media' went into hysterics, he was opposed.

      Clement said StatsCan did not voice opposition to HIM,
      I assume he will back up that statement with proof of some sort.
      Sheikh sat in the Privy, did he voice opposition to the change?

      Why when that task was 'voluntary and reliable' did Sheikh not say…impossible at the start…?

      • Pat

        After Clement suggested he approved it you mean.

        "I assume he will back up that statemetn with proof of some sort."

        Why would you think they will start now?

        • wilson

          No Pat, when tasked with making the change,
          why didn't he say 'impossible, voluntary sourced data is not reliable'

          Had Sheikh raised concerns at Privy meetings or to other 'high ups' in the govt,
          no way that change would have made it off the 'great ideas' table.

          (Gawd, I need to use spellcheck.)

          • Pat

            How could you possibly know that. The answer is that you could not, unless you were actually in on these meetings. Your faith in your party is sweet. Naive, but sweet.

            It was obvious the timing of his resignation coincided with the interview with Clement that was published in the Globe. All you have to do is connect the dots. He was going to speak to his employees, and suddenly cancelled it in light of what was reported in the media that morning. That evening he resigned.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            Hey, Wilson, any way you can get your Conservative buddies to disclose exactly what Sheikh did say to Cabinet? You know, to prove your point and all. They'll help you out, right?

      • NorthernPoV

        funny, this meme "Sheikh waited too long to resign"
        has been dropped elsewhere – it just didn't fly – but you are persisting, so here goes….

        Likely scenario:

        Lifelong successful senior civil servant gets this decision shoved down his throat.
        Considers his options. (As anyone would)
        Perhaps he arranges to have Stats Can's real feelings leaked to the media (or just waits for the inevitable)
        Hopes the Cons will have to reverse themselves due to public pressure
        They don't – then Clement starts telling bald-faced lies about Stats Can position on this
        Time to resign

        so wilson-holier-than-thou – when was the last time you took a personal hit in the course of displaying public virtue?

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/bergkamp bergkamp

          Here's another likely scenario:

          Lifelong successful senior civil servant is approached by his boss who tells him that Cons want to make census voluntary and what options are there.

          Lifelong successful senior civil servant provides options but does not resign.

          Two weeks ago, Lifelong successful senior civil servant's boss said StatsCan provided us with options for when we change from mandatory census.

          Lifelong successful senior civil servant's decision to corrupt sanctity of stats was now public knowledge and Lifelong successful senior civil servant started to feel heat from his mates in civil service and academia.

          After two weeks of scorn and mockery from his colleagues, Lifelong successful senior civil servant resigns.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

            "corrupt sanctity of stats"

            well, at least we agree on the effect of this latest act of vandalism

          • wilson

            bergkamp , exactly how it may unfold as the real story.

            If media reports are to be believed (50/50 on that score) StatsCan preferred option was to eliminate the long form entirely….
            We may get there yet.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

            As a public servant Sheikh accepted that the Cabinet has the ultimate right to ignore his advice, which we now know was to maintain the mandatory census.. However, once Clement publically misrepresented the advice he received from Statistics Canda, Sheikh had no option but to resign. His honor is intact. Good for him.

          • http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/ Scott_Tribe

            My perception of you has been as someone who often defends the Conservatives or supports them, so I applaud you for being objective in this and defending Mr Sheikh's decision and integrity.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

            Thumbs-up for both y'all.

          • James Connors

            As do I.

          • Olaf

            The definition of objectivity is "agreeing with Scott", mind you. :)

            I came across this frequently in my previous life: agree with progressives one day (i.e. harshly criticize Harper), you're applauded as one of the few 'reasonable', 'objective' conservatives; disagree with them the next (i.e. express the opinion that Harper may fall somewhere short of pure evil), and you're a CPC shill. I always found it breathtakingly arrogant.

          • Gayle

            That goes both ways my friend.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/TJCook TJCook

            "The definition of objectivity is "agreeing with Scott"…"

            "I always found it breathtakingly arrogant."

            Self-awareness is not your strong suit, eh?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            Sounds accurate.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/TwoYen TwoYen

            Thank you Scott. Appreciate your comments. Just because some of us support the Conservatives over the Liberals (and NDP) doesn't mean we can't be disappointed at actions by the government when it makes stupid decisions. We are not all "Con-bots".

            Incidentally the delay in my reply is that I am on the other side of the Pacific right now.

      • Jan

        Clement and Sheikh will both be in front of the committee on Tuesday. Clement would be well advised to tell the truth.

        • NorthernPoV

          While Clement is in a position to reveal Sheikh's advice, Sheikh would be breaking his oath if he revealed the details of his communication to a cabinet minister. That is why resignation was his only recourse.

          I am expecting to hear more lies and platitudes from SARs-Tony

          • wilson

            I'm expecting those 'options' are in writing.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            Are you expecting Minister Clement to show that writing to the committee? Are you expecting Minister Clement to show ALL of Sheikh's writings to committee, or just the one where he lays out the options–without the recommendations.

          • burlivespipe

            The writing will be in tweet form, where Sheikh provides gazebo Tony a vowel-reduced thumbs up for fiction writing, and an excuse for early retirement. Now to get Tony's early retirement plans finished…

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/amherstvw amherstvw

          Minister Clement has already referred to HIS responsibility not to reveal what advice the government received.
          I think he said he "had to be careful" when he was questioned too closely…

      • Standing By

        He did tell them it was impossibly stupid, and the Harperites told him to shove his concerns up his ass; then Tony publicly lied about the advice he was given, and said it was all StatsCan choice; he then made the situation worse with a Globe online interview where he did his impersonation of reading the riot act; the rest is history.

        To find fault with Mr. Sheikh for not stopping the Gazetting of the government's ridiculous decision a few weeks earlier is a stretch. Was he to over-rule cabinet? Maybe he hoped/thought the situation was still retrievable, and Harper might come round.

    • Olaf

      It looks like all it took was 213 Wherry posts on the census over the past week to finally break Gaunilon down to the point where even he is outraged by the decision. You happy, Wherry? Proud of yourself?

      • Gaunilon

        Actually Gaunilon was unhappy with it from the get-go and commented on that point.

        Gaunilon does find it hard to sift through all the knee-jerk anti-Conservative partisanship on these boards (not from you Olaf), however, in order to weigh input on their actual errors vs. the usual trumped-up nonsense.

        • Bob

          Hear hear!

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

          The worst part is that actual errors like this one help give credence to the usual trumped-up nonsense.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

            No, that's not the worst part. The worst part is that there are so many commenters unable to weigh serious issues with any semblance of objectivity, even among the readership of a fairly intelligent news magazine. It really is depressing.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            It's extremely depressing, but there's nothing new about it. 'Twas always thus, and always thus will be.

            I've become rather desensitized to the whole thing. I filter out the worst of it almost subconsciously, as background noise.

          • Olaf

            Since the folks in this subthread may be the only ones who might be at all interested, the Corker's latest column appears a relatively balanced assessment of the census situation, one of the first I've read in the mainstream media.

          • Gaunilon

            Very interesting article – thanks for the link. I'd have liked to see more detail concerning the conclusions he mentions from the US Census Bureau about using larger sample size to achieve greater accuracy despite sample bias.

            This line was good "Many of the wagon-masters of statistical statism — the academics, researchers, bureaucrats and politicians — appear to be playing politics with the census issue."

            …but he left out "journalists".

          • Olaf

            I was surprised by the way Grumpy Uncle Corker described the results of the US Census Bureau report as well – since I get all my news from Wherry and his commenters on issues I don't really care about, I had understood that they found 'voluntary surveys can never produce useful information' not 'it costs more to produce equally accurate statistics'. Anyway, I certainly have no intention of reading the report, because none of this matters in the grand scheme of things, so I guess I'll remain in the dark (although I don't doubt that Terry is as willing to 'finesse' or 'selectively emphasize' the results of a report as Macleans commenters, mind you).

          • Jenn_

            At the risk of getting my ego bashed if I am not, in fact, considered one of the few 'lefties' who can view things with "any semblance of objectivity", mind if I join in?

            Wilson posted a Pew analysis of the U.S. Census experiment, which appears to show that voluntary data, when followed up by in-person interviews, could mitigate the accuracy loss from moving to a voluntary survey from a mandatory one. At least, I think that's what it said (it was way over my head). The problem with that was, along with the vast increase in cost was the worry that the interview process itself could skew the responses given (you know, they tell you what they think you want to hear).

            I will agree with Corcoran that having the mandatory long-form census as the subject of the crisis of the summer would have defied belief, say, a month ago.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/PhilCP Phil

            balanced assessment….

            He didn't really say much about the intrusiveness (or lack thereof) of the questions, other than reporting an opinion poll about mandatory/voluntary.

          • burlivespipe

            sort of like one sponsorship scandal (from a program dreamed up out of a scary unity battle) stains the record of one heckuva successful (in fiscal responsibility, ss aside) government… I'll await for your thumbs' up now.

        • Olaf

          Actually Gaunilon was unhappy with it from the get-go and commented on that point.

          No, I know, it was just normally more in the vein of 'yea, I agree the decision was really dumb, but you may have managed to say something even dumber' reaction to the knee-jerk anti-Conservative partisanship.

          Anyway, I'm done with this issue personally, at least on Wherry boards. Fun for a while but neither side is making sense anymore. It's like you either think this is a great policy because the data will be just as good and liberty in this country will increase five fold, OR you think that no other data is useful except long form data, this will corrupt it to a point where one would be better off with a magic eight ball, and this will inevitably lead to Canada essentially crumbling back into the original state of nature. There's really no place in this debate for people who think both of those positions could be wrong.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

            I hear you. It's worse than that though: there actually seem to be a fair number of people (even one on the Macleans masthead) who not only think that the decision is going to lead to Canada descending into total anarchy, but that this is exactly what Harper is trying to achieve. Well, that and pushing forward his "tough on crime" initiative, of course. It's just incredible.

            It's seriously depressing.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Crit_Reasoning Crit_Reasoning

            When you're in an echo chamber long enough, you start to confuse shrill hyperbole with reality. Even those on the Maclean's masthead aren't immune from it.

          • burlivespipe

            So what keeps you in the Harper CON echo chamber of silence, then?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            I agree with you too. It's depressing when someone takes an issue that has two reasonable sides, declares the government side to be evil and the beginning of the end of the world, and that the government is intentionally bringing on the end of the world.

          • Gayle

            I must have missed something. Exactly who has been claiming this will lead to anarchy?

            Because all I have read are a number of people who are concerned about the negative impact of screwing with the census data.

            Is it possible that you are exaggerating your description of the criticism in your lament about how unreasonable people are being? If you want to criticize people for being unreasonable, it generally helps if you do not exaggerate what they are saying.

          • Gaunilon

            Yes, you missed something. Take a look through Potter's most recent piece. Then take a look through the comments. You'll find all kinds of references to how this is all a dastardly plan to ruin the entire Canadian government (or "see the whole [ship of state] scuttled", in Potter's words).

            Society without government is called "anarchy".

            Then take a look through the comments after most of Wherry's posts on the subject. You'll find more about this notion that Harper and his "neocons" are trying to destroy as much of government as possible. You will find, simultaneously and supported by the same commenters, the notion that Harper is trying to ruin StatsCan's credibility in order to hide crime rate stats so that he can push forward a law and order agenda. Yes, I know those two positions are laughably contradictory, and kind of laughable individually too. They are, nonetheless, somewhat popular hereabouts.

            It is beginning to remind me of the left-leaning US blogs I frequented during the Bush Administration. I used to call them "fever swamps" because of their suffocating paranoia.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            To be fair, Gaunilon, people are just trying to make sense of something that, frankly, defies common sense. Since I think we will all acknowledge that coming to a decision on a fairly fundamental building block in the government and others decision-making process–without getting any feedback from anyone involved in the use of said tool, or with any demonstrative indicators that people were upset by it–it does give rise to conjecture. Naturally, each conjecture as time goes on without a seriously believable explanation becomes more outlandish.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            They've provided seriously believable explanations. It just happens that leftists don't like them, and find the need to go ape-sh*t over it.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

            "Naturally, each conjecture as time goes on without a seriously believable explanation becomes more outlandish."

            (a) That's not natural; it's paranoid.
            (b) It started pretty much as soon as the announcement was made. It seemed to have very little to do with the time-to-explanation and a lot to do with an echo chamber that tends to amplify itself to the rail because it has too little negative feedback.

          • Jenn_

            Really? My perception is we have gone over the top as of Friday (maybe part of the day before), but up to that point were our normally charming, partisan selves.

            If you mean left-of-centre partisans were taking pot-shots at this immediately after the announcement was made, uh, yeah, that's what partisans do. That, and the explanation given immediately on (in?) the announcement was laughable.

          • Gaunilon

            Well ok, I grant you that it didn't truly hit critical mass until the last few days. Before that it was relatively normal (as in, no more weird than usual).

            But either way, it's hit the rail and it's becoming a bit embarrassing to watch. Every commenter goes overboard from time to time (myself included), and there are a few commenters who spend their entire existences overboard, but this phenomenon where it feeds on itself until 80% of the commentariat is overboard along with at least one of the Macleans staff….ouch. And the thumb-ratings are similarly nuts! (I mean, they're always pretty meaningless, but at times like this they become a caricature)

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

            I can agree with that.

            (But while I'm sure it's embarrassing to watch, it IS kind of fun to participate in. :) The thumbs rating is the bestest part! Yes, I expect I'll grow up tomorrow.)

          • Gayle

            "You'll find all kinds of references to how this is all a dastardly plan to ruin the entire Canadian government…"

            No. I won't.

            But that was a nice try.

          • burlivespipe

            Yes, crazy for people to jump to such a wacked conclusion. Of course, you're forgetting all the other strange made-in-the-dark choices Harper has pulled out of his but during the past 4 years, including but not limited to: imploding the accountability idea, selling out on fiscal responsibility, raising taxes while accusing your opposition of wanting the same, calculated dissections of government services and boards, stacking the senate with more stuffed turkeys than Loblaws in early October, using the guise of public safety as a means to gut nuclear safety industry for a sell-off, turning our election system into a knock-off joke of american version, creating the Canadian out-of-cycle negative ad monster, taking a minority win and doubling-down with a roulette-wheel like gambit on public funding of political parties — an issue he couldn't have campaigned on?!? — setting up a legalese wall of lies (as proven by his own witness) on the Cadman tape just to stall and successfully blunt out real questions. None of these are the regular workings of a government that has the interests of all the people in hand, but a government who's major goal and workings is just to change the Canadian political landscape.

          • Gayle

            Untrue and unfair.

    • JoeC

      For all the disagreements I may have with you, occasionally your principals coincide with mine. Good post.

  • wilson

    You are all too short sighted.
    Harper plays the long game.

    So now that the experts/media are exhausted, we shall see what jewels of info come out onTuesday.

    All the government has to do is convince the public/users (not the experts) that the data from a voluntary census will be reliable enough to replace the mandatory census.

    Critical decisions are made from data compiled from volunatry sources,
    few StatsCan surveys are mandatory.

    So how does SC use voluntary surveys and make them world class data collectors?

    • Mike T.

      This may be true. But I think the country deserves better than a government that takes more than "YOu can fool some of the people some of the time" into account when making policy.

      • wilson

        Wait until all the info is out there. We have only heard one side of the story, and it was presented at full volume.

        • Pat

          If that is true the only ones to fault for that are those in government. I guess this is what happens when the government announces something like this without any discussion with the people it affects.

          • Wascally Wabbit

            @wilson – Harper's game is as long as his nose – and getting longer by the talking point…[let me know if that is too subtle for you - and I'll publish the idiot's guide!!]

          • wilson

            Does your Progressive's Guide for Idiot's start out
            the Statistics Act : mandatory census for population and agriculture
            (that's why this long form can be eliminated or changed to voluntary)

          • wilson

            And the Liberal government NEVER did such a thing,
            always took the decision to the people first….LOL as if.

            Were you consulted by the Liberal government on Canadian troops joining Bush's war on terror in Afghanistan?
            Moving from peace keepers in Kabul to combat in Kandahar?

            Chretien consulted Canadians on killing the GST!
            We said yes,
            and then he didn't do it,
            his successors want to raise it.!

            Don't need lectures from Liberals on 'consulting Canadians' thankyou

          • Pat

            I am sorry, but first of all, what on earth makes you think I am a liberal? Just because someone opposes Harper, that does not necessarily mean they are a liberal.

            Second of all, how earth does what the liberals did make my statement any less true?

            It is Harper's fault, and his fault alone, for why this has become a complete mess. I know this is hard for you, but why don't you consider holding him accountable for his decisions?

    • Pat

      Your problem is that most people here are talking about what is best for the country.

      You are only talking about what is best for the conservatives.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

      Harper plays the long game.

      Yeah, he played the long game with the "swanky arts gala" comment last year that probably lost him some key Quebec seats. This latest "populist" stunt is going to cost him likewise…big time.

      He's not playing chess; he's playing a floating craps game.

  • Standing By

    As I understand it, the reason they can use voluntary responses on some surveys is (forgive me for shouting) BECAUSE STATSCAN HAS ACCURATE CENSUS DATA and hence knows how to WEIGHT DIFFERENT GROUPS to ensure they get a random sample that accurately reflects the population as a whole from among the voluntary respondents.

    Get it? The voluntary surveys work because they have the census data from the mandatory long form.

    It's the same with every research firm in the country, in fact. They need the census to do (and weight) voluntary surveys.

    • Pat

      She gets it. She just doesn't care. It does not suit her purpose.

  • bergkamp

    "And yet, all I’ve read or heard is how “Anger over census mounts” (Globe and Mail on Wednesday) and there is “an uproar growing” (CBC Radio) and “Why Canadians should care about the long-form census” (Ottawa Citizen last weekend.)

    So I was gobsmacked when I saw the results of an Ipsos-Reid poll that said while 51% of those surveyed think changing the long-form census rules from mandatory to optional is a bad idea, just about as many — 49% — think it’s a good idea." David Akin, The Sun, July 22, 2010

    Pull your head out of your arses Canadian msm. This is not an ideological issue – fifty percent of Canadians don't mind the change and that's way more than Con base (and not all Cons are against mandatory census in first place – lots of Red Tories like mandatory census I am sure)

    I think this is one of the rare issues where non-ideological silent majority has developed and, so far, Harper must be delighted with wide/broad support of left and right.

    Ibbitson's column yesterday – "Rarely, if ever, has this government appeared to court social conservatives on so many fronts" – is my nomination for most witless article on this topic I've read so far.

    • Pat
      • bergkamp

        "According to the detailed poll results, almost half of respondents (47%) oppose the federal government’s decision to scrap the mandatory long form census, while 38 per cent support it ….. Respondents who voted for the Conservative Party are almost evenly divided on this issue, with 42 per cent wanting the government to reverse its move, and 39 per cent arguing that the decision should stand."

        Or not what? I did not see that Specter column till just now but I think it proves my point. Electorate evenly divided – that's significant because there has been two weeks of msm twaddle about how government won't be able to function correctly and economy will ground to halt if Cons tinker with census – and division is not ideological.

        This is visceral debate, nothing to do with politics. I think Harper is happy with support of both left and right on this issue, could be considered bi-partisan. Which is what we all want from our minority parliaments.

        • http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/ Scott_Tribe

          52 % call on the government to reverse its decision, while only 27% support the government to hold its position.

          A 2-1 ratio, Jwl/Bergkamp. The Conservatives are not onside with the public on this move. There arent as many tea party paranoids out there as they thought.

          • Pat

            I think he has problems with numbers.

          • http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/ Scott_Tribe

            Further to that,

            The federal government has argued that the long form census is intrusive and Canadians should not be forced to answer it. Only one-in-four Canadians (24%) agree with this assessment, while a large majority (58%) think the long form census yields data that is important to make policy decisions in all areas of public service, and should remain mandatory.

            The only thing I'll say is we have a series of conflicting poll answers. You have the initial 47-38 oppose/support this decision. It then goes up to 52-27 calling on the Cons to reverse the decision… and then up to 58% agreeing it's important for policy and should be kept mandatory (against 24% who think its too intrusive).

            So it really depends how the question is worded and what details are given the person getting the question.. but as people realize how important the census is for formulating accurate policy (the exact and real reason the Conservative Government want it gone,not for privacy issues, though thats what they use as an argument to try and ferment the Tea Baggers in their party), more and more people oppose this decision.

            That's good news for facts and stats, and bad news for ideologues.

          • Jan

            What I find passing strange is that the stats can be used to evalute government programmes. So for all the anti-government types, why would they want to lose that tool?

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

            It's bad optics to cancel programs that are demonstrably working, even for conservatives. So you kill the tree by poisoning the roots.

            (Sorry, I didn't have the discipline to let your rhetorical question hang in the air like that!)

  • wilson

    "(StatsCan) knows how to WEIGHT DIFFERENT GROUPS to ensure they get a random sample that accurately reflects the population as a whole from among the voluntary respondents."

    So from decades of mandatory data collection,
    they can take a voluntary census, skew it, and accurately reflect the popluation as if it were mandatory!

    So tell me again why a voluntary census can not be skewed, same as the other StatsCan surveys, and accurate data come out the other end?

    • Matlock

      Because the tool that does the "skewing" to correct for a voluntary sample population distribution is a mandatory long-form census, which represents the underlying true population distribution since response rates are not correlated with socioeconomic status.

      Without a mandatory long-form census, it would be impossible to accurately reweight any voluntary survey.

      • Jan

        It's pointless – wilson refuses to understand this. Like Clement and Day she has been advised to repeat the talking points no matter what the response is.

        • Greg

          Yes Wilson, but they use the whole Census to weight their other volunteer surveys. So, what are they going to weight the whole census with, a turtle standing on the back of an elephant?

    • Wascally Wabbit

      @wilson – I love voluntary collection of data and its "non-intrusive" application on my privacy. Since the Census does not have identifiable data – it is not privacy intrusive. But like the private sector, you can provide your consent for the collection of any information – unless it is mandated by law. You provide all the identifiable stuff for your tax return, for your drivers permit – for your gun licence – yes – gun licence – it is clear where you are going with this and – when Mr. Harper's intellect (or whatever it is) calls upon his hand to drop the writ – you will find out that around 65% of voters voted against Mr. Harper and his way!

  • knick

    If even Tom Flanagan can't understand why his protege picked this particular issue to go to the wall on at this particular time, then maybe it's a good idea that everyone understands what's at stake. http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Tory+grip+cen…

    • hosertohoosier

      It is a great issue (politically – it is rubbish as policy).

      1. It redistributes resources towards Tory constituencies (old, while English Canadians are more likely to fill out the long form)
      2. It can be justified on grounds that appeal to the Tory base (especially after the flack over G-8 spending)
      3. It has the right amount of unpopularity. If you are the CPC, you want to take stances that are unpopular enough that all the other parties will stand against you, leaving 40% or so on the CPC side.
      4. Harper has not made much of a verbal commitment on the issue himself. If all goes south, he can at least discredit Tony Clement as a potential Tory leader, and thus preempt a possible palace coup (it is pretty clear Tony Clement wants the top job).

  • http://ragingranter.blogspot.com Raging_Ranter

    Seems just a few short years ago (2006 was it?) progressive-minded Canadians were encouraging mass civil disobedience in the form of…. boycotting the Census. The "Count Me Out" campaign. Sound familiar?

    Four years ago, the Census, long or short, was so unimportant, so inconsequential, that it was a legitimate target for boycotting as a means of registering protest. Now it's a sacred cow that we dare not alter, lest we plunge the country back into the dark ages.

    • Bob

      All that proves is that ideological, dogmatic people are idiots.

    • http://ragingranter.blogspot.com Raging_Ranter

      A little refresher on the Count me Out campaign.
      http://www.countmeout.ca/

      And if you click on the 2011 link at the top of that page, you can see the activists are gearing up for another boycotting campaign for 2011. Wonder if they're only boycotting the short form this time. I mean, with the long form being so vital and unassailable and all.

      • Jan

        Idiots to the right of me, idiots to the left of me. So we have the people who are boycotting the census because of
        Lockheed Martin joining up with the people who think buying planes from Lockheed Martin is swell. This should work well.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

          Oh, LOL. Well done.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      disingenuous to say the least, but thanks for the link that exposes your spin

      this was not a protest against the census
      rather it was a protest against using and American military contractor to do the technical analysis
      duh

      • http://ragingranter.blogspot.com Raging_Ranter

        And how did they recommend we protest against that American military contractor?

        By impeding the collection of Census data. Both long and short.

        You can't in one breath claim that the Census is too vital to play with, then in the next breath openly promote doing just that. Either the Census is important or it isn't. And if it is important, then it remains important, regardless of whether or not you approve of who won the contract to provide the software and data processing services.

        Full disclosure here. I believe the decision to make the long form voluntary is a bad one. It's knee-jerk populism, nothing more. Just as I also believed the idiot activists were wrong to promote boycotting of the Census.

        • Jan

          Who said anyone on here was supporting these people? I certain don't – I think that woman in Saskatchewan who is being prosecuted is nuts.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

          Everyone on the correct side of this issue is not an "idiot activist". This is where you are maybe going wrong.

    • Transportation

      I don't think any mainstream party supported that campaign, just fringe activists. IIRC the NDP convinced the government to cancel part of the Lockheed Martin contract, but I don't think they told people not to fill it in.

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Raging_Ranter Raging_Ranter

        No parties supported it. That is correct. And in fact, I believe the Conservatives deserve the flack they're getting for this. No mainstream party should be appealing to nut-case activists. When an allegedly conservative party does so, they deserve no mercy whatsoever.

  • Bob

    Wow. wilson doesn't just drink the Kool-Aid. I think she's a zombie who died by drowning in it.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/NorthernPoV NorthernPoV

      shes just a figment of Dimtri's imagination

      • http://dredtory.blogspot.com/ Sir_Francis

        Yeah, "she" probably is Dimitri, tapping away on his Blackberry from the bowels of the Diefenbunker.

        • http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

          I hate to disturb the dark recesses of your psyche here, but the Diefenbunker has been an ordinary municipal library for about 20 years now.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

            It's far from an "ordinary municipal library". It's an interactive Cold War museum. Try a Google search, Gauni, and add a new datum to the dank recesses of your own psyche. Nice stab at dismissive superciliousness, though. Better luck next time.

            Oh, and say "Hi" to Dimitri for me.

          • Gaunilon

            Yes, it has a very exciting website.
            But if you enter the actual building, you will find that it is now the Carp library.

            If I see Dmitri hiding out there, perhaps between the fiction and juvenile stacks, I will say hello to him from you.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

            Gauni, the "building" is underground, and the Carp library is beside the bunker site, not in it.

            But whatever. Garçon! I'll have what he's smoking… ;)

          • Mike T.

            THAT'S WHAT THE CENSUS LOVING COMMIES WANT YOU TO BELIEVE!!!

    • Anon 001

      I've actually stopped reading and responding to her. It is difficult to debate people who are paid to be ignorant.

  • Anon 001

    Stephen Harper's style: always choose the low road over the high road, always the path of ignorance over knowledge, division over unity, anger over calm, political tactics over sound policy making.

    Maybe Pratte of La Presse is right, in that when the history books are written, Harper will be ranked as the worst ever.

    • http://intensedebate.com/people/M_A_D_world M_A_D_world

      He's had his moments of bring forth intelligent ideas. (pausing for the snorting and chortling to die done). However he's a long term thinker who tends to hit walls when forced into improvised planing. Sometimes it's better to have a checkers expert than a chess player when the game is in fact checkers.

      • Jan

        I think the ability to play well with others should not be undervalued.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/Sir_Francis Sir_Francis

    “The Prime Minister is not going to be heart broken over a division between elites and Main Street”

    Good God, the nauseating travesty of "populism" on display here…

    My, but Canadian populism has suffered a sad degeneration since the days of Diefenbaker: from a simple, hard-working prairie defence lawyer, we end up with a career corporate shill and professional billionaire groupie who has never punched a clock, never had a real boss, and probably hasn't done his own groceries since 1988.

    Sure, populism has almost always been cheap hucksterism, but hucksters used to be artful. The abysmal ineptitude of our own faux-populists makes Bill Vander Zalm look like William Jennings Bryan.

    • BCer in Mtl

      Vantaaastic!

      • http://intensedebate.com/people/Scott_Tribe Scott_Tribe

        It's anti-intellectualism disguised as populism. Its as Jeffery Simpson calls it, an attempt to remove evidence out of decision-making.

  • Calgary Junkie

    I think you guys have the makings of a real campaign issue.

    Here are some campaign slogans you can use:

    We want lower standard deviations !

    We want 99 % confidence intervals–95 % isn't good enough !

    • Olaf

      Haha, exactly.

      • Gayle

        Does the fact this does not make a "real" campaign issue (and by "real" it appears you mean an issue that will motivate voters), mean this should not be discussed? Are the only things that are important in this country the ones that win elections?

        I understand your grief over the fact some people here are making this a political issue, but the fact is it IS a political issue. The Prime Minister made a decision. That decision is being criticized. It is being criticized by people who know what they are talking about. The Prime Minister has to take responsibility for his decisions.

        Life sucks when you are in politics.

        • Calgary Junkie

          Hey, I'm trying to help you guys with ideas for the inevitable election campaign. Here's a couple more:

          Elites are part of the Normal Distribution too, Mr. Harper.

          Number crunchers … with calculators … in the streets … we aren't making this up !

          I think my first one can be improved:

          Harper wants to RAISE your standard deviations. We will LOWER them !

          • Gayle

            Thanks, but I am not running for election.

          • Gaunilon

            Good thinking. I thought I'd add a few more.

            "Our mean is the real mean!"

            "No Sampling without Mandatory Representation!"

            "Yes, we Can (satisfy the Central Limit Theorem)!"

          • Calgary Junkie

            Let's bring your second one up to modern times.

            The coalition can start the "t-distribution party"

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            Stand up and be counted! Or not! Your choice!

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            Great idea, Cal Junkie. Here's mine:

            If statisticians vote Liberal, so should you.
            Show Harper your sampling bias by voting Liberal.
            Don't count on a leader who won't count everyone's bedrooms!

          • Gaunilon

            "Correlation we can believe in!"

            "It's the demography, stupid."

            I think there are some real winners here. Just as long as they don't try to introduce some kind of "Green Skew" plan that just completely confuses everybody.

          • http://intensedebate.com/people/s_c_f s_c_f

            Don't hand a tory votes with no mandatory totes.

          • Matlock

            "When will the Tories come to their CENSUS!?!"

            Thank you, thank you folks, I'm here all week.

          • http://dredtory.blogspot.com/ Sir_Francis

            Yeah, but you're spending your creative energy on the wrong camp. It's Harper who needs the snazzy slogans: given his abyssal charisma deficit, he needs all the help he can get. So here are my two cents (far more than Harper's worth, I might add):

            * "Our bedrooms have no place in the government of the nation"

            * "Statistical sabotage you can believe in!"

            * "Ask not what crass, moronic demagoguery can do for you. Ask what you can do for crass, moronic demagoguery!"

            * "Paranoid, passive-aggressive nerds with latent Borderline Personality Disorder issues, unite! You have nothing to lose but senior public servants with records of calculable achievement that make yours look like they belong on the resumé of an autistic fifteen-year-old crystal meth addict!"

    • hosertohoosier

      That is why I wouldn't frame the issue that way. I would frame the issue as: the Harper government wants to undercount certain groups in the census, denying them their fair share of federal money. The census needs to be debated as a pocketbook issue by long form defenders because I don't think a lot of voters will turn on statistical accuracy arguments. Always emphasize the real world implication first and foremost.

  • http://intensedebate.com/people/OntarioTown OntarioTown

    Talk about elites – Tim Powers, a Harvard man, related to one of Canada's richest families (Crosbies).

    Powers is being paid as a strategist to say these things.

    What a clown

  • Mike T.

    That CP article is incredibly sympathetic to the CPC position by even positing for a second that the actual divide is between elites and the population, rather than the competent and the incompetent.

  • hosertohoosier

    The general frame on this issue has been one that suits the defenders of the long form well – it is one of whether this is good or bad public policy. It is almost certainly the latter. Why would a government enact bad public policy? Well lets think again about who the winners and losers of this decision are: aboriginals, immigrants, young people and French Canadians are the least likely to fill out the long form. They are the ones who are going to be under-counted.

    This isn't about main street vs. elites (the Tory decision is particularly BAD for lower income individuals, since they are less likely to fill out the long form), nor is it really much of a ploy to win over libertarians (of which Canada has very few). This is about making a choice that will redistribute resources to core Conservative constituencies and away from non-Tory ones. The long-term political benefits of that for the Tories outweighs any short-term furor over bad policy (and even in the Angus-Reid poll, the decision itself looks like a decent enough wedge issue, assuming all the other parties come out against it).

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