Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Where he was

by Aaron Wherry on Saturday, July 31, 2010 8:12pm - 0 Comments

By my count, the Liberal bus stopped in eight ridings—all of them held by either a New Democrat or Conservative—over the last three days. For those who are interested in such things, here are those ridings, how the Liberals finished there in 2008, the margin of defeat and when the Liberals last won the riding.

Trinity-Spadina Second. 3,475. 2004.
Thornhill Second. 5,212. 2006.
Halton Second. 7,850. 2004.
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Second. 6,479. 2004.
St. Catharines Second. 8,822. 2004.
Niagara Falls Second. 10,149. 2000.
Oakville. Second. 5,483. 2006.
Mississauga-Erindale. Second. 397. 2006.

Tags: Halton, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Liberal Express, Michael Ignatieff, Mississauga, Mississauga-Erindale, Niagara Falls, Oakville, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Toronto, Trinity Spadina

More by Aaron Wherry

Emily

All unfriendly territory…yet he seems to be doing well.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

I'd really like to hear how you think he's "doing well". Sure, his bus hasn't run over any school kids, yet. The only positive coming from the bus tour so far is that they haven't screwed it up massively. Please enlighten me otherwise.

Emily

Lots of national coverage…all of it positive…even in unfriendly territory.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

Definitely been lots of coverage. I wouldn't say it's all been positive, ie. wheels falling off of bus. In fact, I'd say most of it's been rather lacking on details of any kind other than "Iggy shows up at X, recites boilerplate" – See: Aaron Wherry.

Emily

Yeah, all positive…it's been going on for a couple of weeks ya know.

The policies are already out there, so it's mostly crowd reaction

Meanwhile the Cons are imploding.
http://intensedebate.com/people/avr avr

Keep reassuring yourself with that.
Emily

I have no need for reassurance.
Greg

So much for the coalition.
Blacktop

Everything is slow on Sunday, even Emily

Wascally Wabbit

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek – last win 2004 – I'll bet Sheila Copps has had a few laughs out of that one…
Wascally Wabbit

So – did you see her anywhere near the bus at the Hamilton stop Aaron (yeh yeh – I know she lives in Ottawa these days)?
Gaunilon

Am I just being especially dense, or is there no way to tell (from the Liberal.ca website) where and when he's going to visit in each riding? Makes it pretty hard for non-Liberal-party-members to show up and meet the guy.

UPDATE: Answer, I'm just being especially dense. Their big pin-map graphic is utterly useless, but there's a pdf for download of the actual schedule with precise times and locations here.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

Interesting that there seem to be zero stops scheduled in Alberta. That's really weak – you do have to drive through, Ignatieff.

Emily

In the US it's called 'fly-over country'. LOL

He has been there several times already you know.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

He really should stop importing those bad habits from his time in America. He needs to realize that Alberta's the economic engine of Canada, and start developing policy to suit Alberta, rather than trying to run against it. It's a large part of why he's a failure to this point.

Emily

Well since Alberta isn't, your point is….pointless.

http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

Well, Iggy believes that it is. And that would make my point relevant, and your dismissal of it uninformed and ignorant.

"The economic power has shifted west and the political power has not yet followed west," he laments, correctly. "The Liberal party is not represented in the engine of the economy. That has to change."
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics/story….
Emily

Alberta is strictly a resources based economy….the first level of 5..and provincial fortunes go up and down based on a commodity price.

Alberta is not supporting Canada in spite of Con propaganda….and is in fact running a deficit.

Neither economic nor political power has shifted anywhere.
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

"Alberta is not supporting Canada" – Alberta is one of two provinces that is contributing to equalization. Ontario is a have-not province now. So please, don't be ridiculous.

But I'm really interested in these levels of economics or industry. Please provide a link for me to educate myself about said levels.
Emily

No, Alberta is not supporting Canada, sorry. Ontario did support you for years though, along with everybody else.

Ontario gets a small rebate now, that's all.

Ontario still contributes over $20B a year to Canada.

The first level of economy is the the resources level…anything that comes out of the land itself.

That's oil, mining, fishing, agriculture and so on. The primary level.

Secondary level is manufacturing.

Tertiary level is the service economy…retail, medical, legal etc Something like 80% of Canada is currently tertiary level.

The quaternary sector is what we're moving into…Knowledge based services.

The quinary sector is purely a knowledge economy.
http://intensedebate.com/people/sourstud sourstud

I'm still not sure why you refer to these different types of industry as "levels". It seems to me they are all kinda reliant upon one another. Ie, no knowledge economy can exist without agriculture taking place somewhere (people need food to think, etc). Are you suggesting we should be trying to move towards a knowledge economy and away from the other four levels? If so, who should be looking after levels 1-4, or should they be left alone all together?
Emily

It's a level because you move up

Many economies are mixed, but it's the dominent one that determines it.

Of course we still have some agriculture..[.we even still have hunter-gatherers in the world, who have no economy at all]….but agriculture no longer dominates. At one time 98% of Canada was agriculture….now it's more like 2%. Other things have taken their place.

Manufacturing was big for years, but China is now the world's factory, so it's disappearing in the west…Malaysia and Vietnam are giving China a run for it's money on this …but eventually it'll be robots anyway.

As new things come along, the old ones fade away.
Richard

Emily, have you eaten any knowledge lately? Heated your house with it?
Emily

As I said, agriculture hasn't disappeard, it's just a very small part of our society now.

We are 80% urban.

And there is alternative heating.
Blacktop

Somebody must dig spuds somewhere.. If the Big Three had stopped making crappy cars 20 years ago they might still be there in spades.
Emily

As I said, it's a small part of Canadian society now…there is no future in spud-digging.

The Big Three would have changed and disappeared anyway…lots of countries produce cars, and they can do it cheaper while keeping up with the times.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Raging_Ranter Raging_Ranter

The quaternary sector is what we're moving into…Knowledge based services.

The quinary sector is purely a knowledge economy.

What about the urinary sector? You haven't even mentioned that.
wilson

that's right Emily, Alberta is running a deficit,
and yet still sends billions to the 'have nots' in Ontario and Quebec.

Signs of a worker shortages in the oil/gas industry this fall, are already there.
Something that has not happened since the 80's is taking hold, key personel being offered retainers/stand-by pay.
So my Eastern friends looking for work,
the job market is going to be hot in the West!
Emily

No, I'm afraid not.

Ont puts $20B into the pot.

Dave

That might be because the Alberta stops have happened in the past, which would reduce or eliminate the need for stops to be scheduled for the future.

Emily

Yeah, mere weeks ago.

Richard

I guess Calgary is a zero stop: http://www.calgarysun.com/news/Stampede/2010/07/1…

Why do you Conservatives hate Calgary? Why do you hate the Stampede? Why do you hate Canadian culture. Why do you hate the troops? etc.

wilson

All the politicians go to the Calgary Stampede, the tour kicked off after that, no?.

http://www.punditsguide.ca Pundits' Guide

The Calgary Stampede was considered the first stop on the tour, so in fact Mr. Ignatieff did visit Alberta.

Niagara Falls was probably chosen over Niagara West–Glanbrook, because the latter lost its candidate last December when Ivan Luksic started a new job (http://www.stoneycreeknews.com/news/article/196382). Similarly, Hamilton East–Stoney Creek is the only Hamilton riding with a nominated candidate currently in place, in spite of on-going efforts to remedy that situation. The forthcoming municipal elections in Ontario may be impeding that situation.
Richard

"The forthcoming municipal elections in Ontario may be impeding that situation. "

My god that sounds depressing. Until Ontario's municipal voters have clearly rejected them, our candidates won't be readily identified. Yikes.

Emily

No, it's people making up their minds.

Do they become a candidate in a riding that may not have an election for a year, or do they run for council right now?

cbasu

Just for reference, here are the combined 2008 election Liberal+NDP and Liberal+NDP+Green votes for all the Conservative-held ridings [from my BloggingTories Forums post at
http://intensedebate.com/people/Jenn_ Jenn_

Interesting (and more than a little depressing to me). Thanks for that.

hosertohoosier

I realize this is being interpreted as "Iggy is moving on the offensive", but lets imagine Ignatieff was way behind in the polls. I posit that he would still have a strong incentive to campaign in those ridings. Why? Not because they are close (they wouldn't be close in a bad election for the Liberals), but because those are the kind of ridings he HAS to win in order to become Prime Minister. Ignatieff has to assume that the national campaign can get him within striking distance of Harper, while maintaining a strong local campaign in the kind of Southern Ontario ridings that make or break elections. A defensive strategy means playing to lose.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

That's a fair point, but it assumes that Ignatieff expects to lose the leadership if he loses his first election as leader (which may well be true, but it not necessarily true to my knowledge).

If, on the other hand, he expects to have two kicks at the can then it would make sense to consolidate Liberal ridings as well as tackle close CPC ridings. That way he preserves a strong minority in the event of a loss, leaving himself in a stronger position for the next election (and making it less likely that he gets replaced after the first one).

Therefore, either Ignatieff is on the offensive because he thinks he's going to win, or he's on the offensive because he thinks he has to win or be replaced. I can't tell which.

Blacktop

And then he can always be a Harvard prof again anyway, I suppose.. He has about as much appeal as a Thesaurus.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

If it's going to run Canada, I'll be voting Thesaurus over Bible.

Emily

Me too.
hosertohoosier

If Harper were a book, I think he'd be "Game Theory and Canadian Politics" (by Tom Flanagan). I don't think Harper's faith is very useful to understanding him as a politician.
http://intensedebate.com/people/Halo_Override Halo_Override

Agreed; the utility of that particular tome is in crowbarring one's way into the stable voter base he relies upon, aka a big segment of the grassroots from the Reform days. Without them he's sunk, and Tony Clement won't be fishing him out.

hosertohoosier

Why go back to Harvard/academia? If Ignatieff loses (and I think he will be our next Prime Minister) he will stay in Canada. As leader of a political party you make a lot of valuable connections, which can lead to lucrative corporate board positions. Look at the post-politics transitions of Tobin, Manley, McKenna, and Harris for good examples.

A return to academia (though Ignatieff would be better described as a public intellectual, which is a bit different from your standard research-oriented professor) would involve a lot of work for little gain. Is another tortuous book on human rights really going to make a difference for Ignatieff's reputation or bank account?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Gaunilon Gaunilon

"I think [Ignatieff] will be our next Prime Minister…"

I'm curious – do you think he's going to win a plurality of seats in the next election, or that he's going to lose and then form a governing coalition despite a Conservative plurality?
hosertohoosier

This prediction may well prove my Waterloo, but I predict a Liberal plurality. Harper has a weak position in the polls, despite an economy that is doing quite well. Canada's employment is now past peak levels. If under these conditions one can only muster a small lead, it does not speak well for Harper's chances once the post-recession boom ends (especially if there is economic trouble in the EU or the US).
Harper's winning re-election campaign is "I saved your asses from the recession." It is not clear what positive theme he could emphasize other than that. I don't think the Guy Giorno crap ("on your side") actually matters.

Secondly, I think Layton will have some difficulties. He is his party's biggest asset, but it is not clear how his health issues will impact his performance as leader. If he resigns, or even if he cannot keep up his earlier pace, the party will suffer. Duceppe may also retire. I think he is hanging on in case Marois implodes, but that isn't going to happen. There is nowhere for him to go but down.

Thirdly, I think Ignatieff's approval ratings are likely to go up with further exposure. A lot of people are only familiar with the Tory attack ads. This gives him low expectations that are unlikely to be vindicated. Even Dion enjoyed a post-debate bounce as a result of this. Ignatieff polls at Dion levels, but he is no Dion. At the very least he has the communication skills to answer to charges against him.

Finally, I think the upcoming Elections Canada scandal is going to hurt Harper.

Note that my philosophy of predictions is not based on maximizing accuracy. I think about predictions like investing in the stock market. There is little value in being accurate in predicting outcomes everybody believed were going to happen. So I tend to look for undervalued predictions, because the payout is higher.
A reader

You've discounted both the NDP and the Bloc based on assumptions that are far-fetched and not supported by the evidence. Layton has recently been given very good health news, and looked quite fired up in his video interview with The Mark on Friday, where he basically dared the Prime Minister to call a fall election. Luckily he can always count on being counted out ahead of time from folks such as yourself, and benefit from a surprise to the upside once the campaign begins.

I also see no evidence whatsoever that Gilles Duceppe will step down before the next election, unless you've seen something I haven't. Afterwards might be another story, and perhaps I've misunderstood your prediction in the sense that it might encompass more than one election.

Layton was elected leader telling his party he had a 10-year plan for Quebec, and is not going anywhere. He's got tons more strategic political sense than Ignatieff, and a much better ear for what people are telling him. The NDP is the value investment in my opinion.
hosertohoosier

I put a lot more credence in the economic factors (and I don't think campaigns matter as much as people think). The Bloc/NDP may not face weaknesses. At the same time it is definitely the case that the Bloc has peaked, and probably the same case can be made of the NDP. At the very least, if you compare Liberal/NDP fundraising, they have moved in the opposite trajectory since 2008. Moreover, the prospect of a coalition may help strategic voting for the Liberals.
A reader

OK, I just read down further and see that you're limiting yourself to a single election. Hence my points stand.
Gaunilon

"There is little value in being accurate in predicting outcomes everybody believed were going to happen. So I tend to look for undervalued predictions, because the payout is higher."

Eh, ok… I generally consider political predictions to be valuable based solely on their accuracy. Do you take this approach because you are hoping to profit on the UBC election stock exchange or something?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Raging_Ranter Raging_Ranter

You never know. The Liberals kept John Turner around through two election drubbings, the first being a disastrous 40 seat showing in the 1984 election. Even after his second loss, they kept him around another two years while the party engaged in a lengthy leadership battle, which Chretien won in 1990. Mind you, that was a different era. Nowadays, in the era of instant saviours, you'd never see that sort of patience.
Mike T.

Anything is within the realm of possibility, of course, but I don't think it NEEDS that to be true, as you state. It's unlikley a bus tour would be that involved in a long term plan fixed on the possiblity of losing the next election.

http://intensedebate.com/people/CTM Claudia Lemire

It is his only shot, and this tour ,he should of done it a year ago, he has already been established as someone who can't lead, can't get it, it's too late for him!

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