Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Swing votes

by Aaron Wherry on Thursday, August 26, 2010 4:06pm - 0 Comments

NDP MPs John Rafferty and Bruce Hyer talk to the Thunder Bay Chronicle Journal about the vote on Bill C-391. Neither are quoted explicitly stating an intention, but Hyer at least seems to be talking like someone who wants to vote yes.

Tags: Bruce Hyer, C-391, firearms, gun control, gun registry, John Rafferty, long gun registry, NDP

More by Aaron Wherry

Emily

Oh please go ahead and vote to eliminate it, and lose your following.
brooster

I think the dilemma for the NDP in rural Ontario (where I live) is that they've had success in ridings where there's a large unionized cadre of loggers, mill workers and miners, and no luck in other ridings where there's a longstanding, deep seated populist, libertarian streak.

I think appealing to one constituency alienates the other; the gun registry rips open that rift.

Reverend_Blair

Except that a large number of loggers, mill workers, and miners spend some of their free time hunting and are gun owners. The same goes in rural prairie ridings where the NDp are trying to win back seats.

There's been a split in the party on this from the very beginning. At first the NDP seemed to have a handle on it…they suggested changes (largely ignored by both the Liberals and the Reform/Alliance) that addressed real short-comings with the registry (gun sharing in First Nations communities, for instance), as a result. As the rhetoric became louder, it became one of those for or against things.

brooster

I think your observation about the recreational pursuits of loggers, etc., are probably quite accurate and that's why, as a result, the gun registration is such an insidious issue for many party loyalists in those (mostly northern) Ontario ridings. The union vote there was fairly solid for the NDP until this issue was lobbed like a grenade into their midst (d'ya think the PCP strategists haven't factored that into their game plan?)

If I were an NDP member in that context, I'm not sure how I'd react. Voting my conscience wouldn't exactly reflect the wishes of my constituents.

Reverend_Blair

Yeah, I think this would have been much less of an issue if the (then opposition) Reform/Alliance would have worked with the NDP to make the registry better.

I think this should be another chance to do that, and the NDP would be wise to present it as such. I don't think they will though.

You're right though…it's a tough call for somebody running for office. My NDP MP is voting to end the registry, and I can't blame him. It's not popular in this riding, and he didn't beat that ex-hockey player by much (I think it was about 5%) in the last election. I don't know his personal feelings on it, but you have to think that he has more than one issue he wants to address and he has to win his seat to do that.

brooster

I think your observation about the recreational pursuits of loggers, etc., are probably quite accurate and that's why, as a result, the gun registration is such an insidious issue for many party loyalists in those (mostly northern) Ontario ridings. The union vote there was fairly solid for the NDP until this issue was lobbed like a grenade into their midst (d'ya think the PCP strategists haven't factored that into their game plan?)

Reverend_Blair

It's hard to say, Emily. The Conservatives have spent decades painting the NDP as anti-gun as well.

I think where both the NDP and Liberals have failed is not standing up and explaining the registry and its advantages though. One of the real high points of the registry is that, instituted properly, it protects responsible gun owners. I haven't seen a lot of rural NDP MPs make that point though. The hard part is getting your FAC/PAL and, if you hunt, a hunting licence. Registering your weapon is a breeze after that, and has some very real benefits. Nobody ever mentions those though…instead they are all hung up on this criminals vs. duck hunters thing.

Emily

They ARE anti-gun. That's what makes this so pathetic. It's just vote-pandering.

Layton must be having conniption fits.

I agree, more explanation would be a good thing….but for some reason political parties don't explain the reason[s] for what they do. Their base might understand, but nobody else does…and it's those people you have to reach out to.

Reverend_Blair

They aren't anti-gun, at least not those in rural and even blue collar areas. They are anti-violence, and they are mostly pro-registry, but that's not the same as being anti-gun.

I know it seems like a fine distinction, but it's not.

I support the privilege of people to own guns, but I support the registry too. From what I've been able to gather, a lot of NDP MPs are in the same situation. They see the use of guns as a tool, but recognize that some tools are dangerous enough that they need to be controlled. The way the rhetoric is though, it's tough to make such a distinction. The result is that some vote against the registry.

I also support limiting magazine size to one shot for rifles and two for shotguns, but that's mostly because I'm tired of hearing people brag about what great shots they are, then talk about wanting to order bigger (illegal here) clips from the US.

Emily

The NDP party is pro-gun control….whatever individual rural MPs say.

This could tear them apart….not that I'd mind…but it has that potential

Reverend_Blair

I doubt it'll tear them apart. It's been a couple of decades now, and it hasn't happened yet. And the party seems okay with agreeing to disagree at this point.

It seems to me that the issue is likely harder on the Liberals, who are being attacked for whipping their vote on Hoeppner's bill (and if that's really a private members bill, my 1/2 ton is really a Ferrari).

I think it's harder than anybody knows on the Conservatives too. I don't know many people in Conservative ridings here in Winnipeg who are anti-registry, and I suspect the same goes for suburban ridings in places like Edmonton and Calgary. It's certainly part of their problem in the 905 and Quebec. I'm not seeing a lot of news stories about that though.
Emily

I don't think Layton has a choice. If he whips the vote he'll have a caucus revolt….so 'democracy' sounds better.

What will tear them apart is losing the urban vote if they get the registry eliminated.
Reverend_Blair

It won't be them getting the registry eliminated. It will be the Conservatives who vote as a block against the registry, and the Liberals who claim to be unanimously for it but will likely have some MPs just not show up.
Emily

Anythings possible….but Iggy doesn't have to sign their nomination papers either.
Reverend_Blair

He doesn't have to, but the attacks by the Conservatives (yeah I know it would be hypocritical, but it would happen) and the possibility of vote-splitting if some of those MPs ran as independents would hurt him too.
Emily

Independents rarely get elected because they're useless.

And none of them are so personally popular as to defeat a party candidate.
Reverend_Blair

They don't have to get elected, just run enough of a campaign to take some votes as incumbents. The the Conservatives (or NDP…I haven't gone through each riding to see who finished second etc.) come up the middle. That's the danger of booting an incumbent MP out.

sourstud

Please enlighten us as to these benefits of registering a gun. I don't think they actually exist, but I'd be pleased to be wrong in this case.

PolJunkie

I thought that the Liberals' compromise was a clever and effective one. Then again, I don't own a gun long or short.
Stewart_Smith

Gotta admit, from the title I was hoping this might be something about what goes on in all those coed Finnish saunas up in the Lakehead.
Derek

I'm not convinced that there are all that many people (if any) in urban seats who are going to care about this issue when we have an election six months to a year from now – and if they do care about the issue – what's the difference between re-electing an NDP MP who voted to keep the registry or electing a Liberal who also wants to keep the registry?

The stakes are highest for MPs who clearly cast a vote that goes totally against the views of people in their riding. So, for example if the Liberal MP for Yukon goes along with the Liberal whip and votes down the bill – he could be in trouble. Similarly, Tory MPs in Quebec City could be in trouble for voting to scrap the registry.
sourstud

Aren't you the one who's always arguing that MPs should vote for their constituents, and not tow the party line?