Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Make it four?

by Aaron Wherry on Wednesday, September 1, 2010 5:02pm - 0 Comments

Pundits Guide notes that BQ MP Jean-Yves Roy might not be a BQ MP for much longer.

In terms of the Bill C-391, that would be another no vote lost.

In terms of another potential by-election, the riding of Haute-Gaspésie–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia would very much seem to be in play. It would also give each of the four parties a riding to defend in potential fall votes alongside the NDP in Winnipeg-North, the Liberals in Vaughan and the Conservatives in Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette.

Tags: by-election, C-391, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, firearms, gun control, gun registry, Jean-Yves Roy, long gun registry, Vaughan, Winnipeg North

More by Aaron Wherry

Emily

I guess a lot of it depends on the state of their pension fund, and how fed up, tired or ill they are.
http://www.punditsguide.ca Pundits' Guide

Thanks for the link, Aaron. I've got a blogpost up with the background now.
http://www.punditsguide.ca/2010/09/fourth-byelect…

Stewart_Smith

Hi Alice, I note the latest Ekos poll is up which confirms the shift of university educated voters away from the Conservatives. Do you have any insight what that might mean for fund raising?

http://www.punditsguide.ca Pundits' Guide

Hi Stewart, and sorry I didn't see this comment earlier.

I'm fairly sure anything I said about that now would be speculation. We did see some drop in their weekly contributions above $200 in the final few weeks of the last quarter, which coincided with the G8 spending/"fake lake" story sinking in a bit, but could also have just represented an early start to the normal summer lull.

I'm of course waiting for the next quarter to see whether that trend continues, but even there the summer months are not a good gauge. The Liberals might be expected to see an above-average summer based on the Liberal Express tour and its clear impact on their own party's morale.

It's funny: I cover the quarterly reports, but would also urge parties and observers not to get too agitated about their nuances and short-term twitches. Of course we're all looking for the turning points, but a professional party can recover from a single rough quarter. It's when permanent trends set in that we can truly get interested.

PeteTong

All eyes will be on Haute-Gaspésie–La Mitis–Matane–Matapédia. I'd say that a Conservative majority depends on winning seats like this and the same could be said for a Liberal majority. But will it stay BQ?