Beyond The Commons

 Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

151 to 149

by Aaron Wherry on Wednesday, September 8, 2010 12:35pm - 0 Comments

There may ultimately be two votes on C-391. Two days after the House returns, there will be a vote on a Liberal motion to scrap C-391. If that fails, C-391 will proceed to a vote at some point later this session.

On that note, an update. New Democrat Bruce Hyer says he won’t vote to scrap C-391 on the initial vote, though he reserves the right to ultimately change his mind on the bill before it comes to a final vote. Meanwhile, John Rafferty, another of the NDP dozen, says he intends to vote in favour of C-391. As does Nathan Cullen.

That shifts the advantage back to supporters of C-391 by a count of 151 to 149.

Four NDP votes (Allen, Ashton, Gravelle and Hughes) remain undeclared. One no vote (Jean-Yves Roy) remains in question.

Tags: , , , , , , ,
Bookmark and Share
  • Patchouli

    I wonder if the cons are talking to Helena about her vote. I wonder…

    • Crit_Reasoning

      I don't think Guergis needs any persuading:

      Guergis grew up with guns; when she was young, her father, Karam Guergis, would take her hunting for deer and caribou. Guergis was recently at the Barrie Gun Club, where she was treated like a hero by gun owners. Guergis managed to hit the bull’s eye with a rifle and used some handguns for the first time. People at the club say the end of the long-gun registry is a good first step toward establishing a more sensible gun policy. Guergis says dealing with gun owners whose firearm possession licences expire is a big issue in her large rural Ontario riding. Members of the Barrie Gun Club complained about myriad problems with the system, including not getting their renewal notices for their possession licences on time. Guergis did say that while she has no problem with shooting gophers, she could never bring herself to shoot a large animal.

      http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/02/03/mitchel-raphae…

      • Patchouli

        That's an interesting post; thank you. I didn't realize she was aka Eagle Eye Guergis! Here I was hoping they might have to court her vote. Uninformed moi!

      • Richard_S_Argent

        I was under the impression that firearms licencing and registration are two seperate things, and that registrations don't expire.

        • Crit_Reasoning

          Your impression is correct. In addition to being sympathetic to complaints about problems with the license renewal system, Guergis has been a solid supporter of C-391.

          • Richard_S_Argent

            I suspect there's been an awful lot of willful conflation of all issues pertaining to firearms with the politically charged registry.

          • Crit_Reasoning

            I think most long gun owners are intimately acquainted with the difference between licensing and registration (since they've actually had to do both), so there's not much possibility for conflation there.

            I think most of the "willful conflation" is on the pro-registry side. For example, there are posters in Montreal that show silhouettes of handguns and machine guns beside the photos of Layton and Mulcair. I'll leave it to you to guess which party put those up. There is also a lot of confusion among people who don't own guns; many aren't quite sure what the registry is and what it does. Some Canadians seem to think that without the registry, Canada won't have gun control, which is ludicrous but nonetheless useful to the pro-registry camp.

          • Richard_S_Argent

            Fair enough, I think that the anti-registry side has also been muddying the water knowing full well that it isn't only gun owners who oppose the registry, but also those who are predisposed to dislike "big government" in general and the Liberals specifically.

            There's a lot of confusion all around about the registry – I've heard many people imply that it's just another cash grab by the government, when I found out just yesterday (by phoning the RCMP when I couldn't find the info online) that firearm registration is free. A fallacy that obviously is useful to the anti-registry camp.

          • Crit_Reasoning

            Firearm registration wasn't always free. Before the infamous billion-dollar cost overrun, the gun registry program was initially supposed to be self-funding through income from registration fees, which had to be paid for each long gun in addition to the fees one had to pay for one's firearms license.

            Some people were forced to pay thousands of dollars just to be allowed to keep long gun collections that had been in their family for generations. It's not hard to see how the suspicion that this was a "government cash grab" originated, even though this is no longer the case.

          • SooperNoob

            I see no reason why my political stance that favors the conservatives and not the Liberals or "big government" is an indictment against my stance against the long gun registry. Is my opinion on such matters only valid if I voice my intent to support the Liberals and their policies?

          • Richard_S_Argent

            I'm afraid I don't understand your question. I wasn't aware I was indicting anyone – just stating that there are other groups outside of gun owners who have objections to the registry.

          • MarionKl

            The registry attaches each legally owned gun to its licenced owner?

          • Jenn_

            But if licensing and registration are two different things, and registration doesn't expire, why is there "not much possibility for conflation there" when they just did it in the Globe and Mail article linked to five (EDIT: from the comment I'm replying to) comments ago? You seem to be agreeing, but seem to be saying that doesn't count.

            Please clarify for the class.

          • SooperNoob

            Actually, you are correct. A registration of a particular firearm does not expire. But if my license expires (as it does) I become a paper criminal at midnight that night. I'm easy to catch too, because I registered my rifle previously. The smuggler does not have this concern. The difference is that the registry focuses on a firearm that may or may not be presently in my possession. A firearm license registers me, the individual, and serves every purpose that the police desire.

          • Jenn_

            "The difference is that the registry focuses on a firearm that may or may not be presently in my possession"

            What do you mean? What did you do with it? Yes, this is the point!

          • SooperNoob

            I may have let a friend borrow it, or it may be at a gunsmith getting repaired. I may have it on consignment at a dealer, or it might have been stolen from me or any of these other places.

          • Jenn_

            Yes, you may have done those things. But we aren't talking about a package of clothespins here. If you let a friend borrow it, is he licensed? I'd think that would be on you. I'd also think you'd know where your friend had it, whether it was stored properly and out of the reach of children, etc. If it is on consignment at a dealer, do you know anything about the dealer or did you just hand it to some guy at the back of his truck? If it was stolen, did you report it as stolen? See, the firearm being registered might make you think of these things, because you know if you don't and there's a problem, they will be looking at you first.

          • SooperNoob

            Lending or selling a firearm to someone without a license is a criminal offense, so no I would make sure that he had one. That onus is on me. How he stores it while he has it is his responsibility, and he would know this from when he went through the process of obtaining his license. Failing to report a stolen firearm is also a criminal offense, but I'm reporting it anyway if for no other reason that my insurance claim will require it. Similarly gun dealers have to be licensed and approved by the government. I didn't need the registry to think of these things. I was a responsible person before the registry.

          • Jenn_

            Excellent! But now we have a better chance of all (licensed) gun owners being the responsible kind, like yourself.

      • http://scottdiatribe.canflag.com/ Scott_Tribe

        The question is whether Guergis will be showing up to vote or not. Some folks in her riding don't think she will be, due to taking time off after her accident

        • MarionKl

          Not to mention that her pregnancy is considered high risk (although she should be at 6 months now).

      • Thwim

        You're assuming they'd want to persuade her to get rid of this very useful CPC donation inducer.

  • non-partisan

    Further to C.Rs comments; I don't think H.G, even if she wanted to sell her vote, is in a very strong bargaining position:

    She would be making more enemies than friends both in her riding and in her former party by voting against the bill. That doesn't mean that she couldn't play a weak hand to some benefit, but her experience suggests she doesn't have the political astuteness to pull that off.

  • ChrisWPG

    "What is right for his constituents"….. so is that what is correct or what there will is? If all the urban seats held by the cons were polled and there was support for the registry in any of them, would they change there vote?

    • http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/ Open_Democracy

      In using the word "right", I'm quoting more or less what he told the press after he voted against his Party in at least one mainstream media interview.

  • Out There

    There has to be a better way.

    The way things stand right now, the vote is going to be so close that, regardless of the outcome, 49.9% of Canadians are likely to become unhappy.

    Is there any way at all for opponents and proponents of the gun registry to try to find some common ground? Or is the rural-urban divide on this issue so great as to be unbridgeable?

    • ChrisWPG

      How do you translate the tight race in the house to 49.9% of Canadians being disappointed? If this is truly an urban rural issue, I think you'll find the numbers are much different. According to Stats Can the urban rural is split in 2006 was 80/20. http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a-eng.htm

      • http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/ Open_Democracy

        It would be interesting to know what proportion of rural households possess long guns in comparison to urban ownership.

        • ChrisWPG

          Hmmm, with a fully functional registry we would know that information, or add the question to the mandatory long form from stats can….. DOH!

          • LynnTO

            Maybe we should add it to the list of questions to go on the Census National Household Survey.

        • John D

          It's important to note that not everyone who owns one is against the registry.

          • Reverend_Blair

            That's important to remember. I know quite a few gun owners who don't care one way or the other, and a couple who are staunchly for it.

      • LdKitchenersOwn

        True, but at the same time, polls have tended to show "scrap the registry" at around 40-45% support, and "keep the registry" at only around 30-35% support. The truth is that if this was really simply an "urban-rural" divide, the urban side would probably win, but in polls, more Canadians claim to want to scrap it than keep it (though "undecided" is pretty high).

        Also, while I've used the 80/20 number myself, it's worth noting that "rural" is defined there as "outside of a population center of 1000 people". I'm sure I could find hundreds of "cities" in Canada with a population around 1000-2000 people that I wouldn't consider to be in any sense "urban".

        • ChrisWPG

          Not disagreeing with you LdKitchen but a number of those 1000 – 2000 pop "cities" you mention are located so close to major urban centers that sometimes you can't tell when you've passed from one to the other. But I take your point.

        • LynnTO

          The truth is that if this was really simply an "urban-rural" divide, the urban side would probably win, but in polls, more Canadians claim to want to scrap it than keep it (though "undecided" is pretty high).

          It's been my experience that the intensity of support (or opposition) is the more important number here, and (in a two-minute google) I can't find a poll that has any indication of intensity, just support/oppose good/bad. Intensity of support would give us a better sense of who would be angry about a maintenance/scrapping of the registry, as opposed to just nonchalant.

          Maybe if someone has time for a three-minute google, they can post a link?

          • Mike T.

            also factor in people who don't mind it but do not like the cost assocaited, and of those the people who don't understand the notions of sunk costs.

          • TedTylerEzro

            Also factor in the fact that since the sunk costs have been so vastly over-budget and over-extended in its development cycle that people don't trust future projections.

            After all, if the registry blows another billion over the next 10 years, will that be dismissed as sunk costs too?

      • Out There

        Meh. Perhaps I should just have said "the divide between pro-registry and anti-registry Canadians". Urban-rural may be an oversimplification.

        But I seem to recall, when I was younger and perhaps more naive, that governments used to work to try to satisfy as many Canadians as possible, rather than just trying to keep their side happy and then, say, accusing the other side of being ignoramuses and/or "not real Canadians".

        I suppose that anyone who attempts to compromise winds up offending both sides of the issue. Sigh.

        • brooster

          …"I seem to recall, when I was younger and perhaps more naive, that governments used to work to try to satisfy as many Canadians as possible…"

          Sounds like utilitarianism: the greatest good for the greatest number of people (Jeremy Bentham, early 19th c.). Is that standard a quaint nostrum, a naive objective or a laudable goal in today's hyper-partisan political climate? Sad to think it's no longer attainable in a climate that tends tends to create winners and losers.

          I also sigh.

  • Dave

    He's managed to vote both ways on the gun registry.

    Like Stephen Harper?

    • http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/ Open_Democracy

      On so many issues it's hard to keep track.

  • DBM

    This will be a real test of Iggy's new Parliamentary team. Especially his new Whip.

  • Style

    I want health updates on the Liberal party's Ailing Eight. Will they be well enough to vote with their party both times?

  • MostlyCivil

    I know it's off topic, but this bears repeating:

    From todays' Globe, new polling numbers etc… http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tori…

    "Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said the poll is basically a return to normal for the Conservatives, who have always had trouble attracting women. "

    Yeah. Had to read that twice.

  • tedbetts

    On the contrary. Every one of these points has been made by someone. Every single one.

    The original point I was making was that no one on the pro-registry/pro-safety side has made any concerted effort to take on the anti-gun registry lobby/politicians and so these falsehoods gain stronger currency. It is not the only reason why people oppose the gun registry, but it certainly has helped to convince many Canadians.

    And the proof is in the pudding. As the pro-registry/pro-safety Canadians are finally taking up the task of defending the registry, and presenting the facts to counter these falsehoods, the polls have turned sharply in their favour. Where a year ago, about 41-45% of Canadians opposed the gun registry and about 35% supported it, now the numbers are more than reversed with almost 50% in favour of keeping the gun registry and 38% in favour of getting rid of it.

    As for the NRA style lobbying, are you really that naive or just misinformed?

  • Reverend_Blair

    I know the vote is whipped, but I wonder if Stephen Fletcher and Rod Bruinooge have the cojones to vote for the registry.

  • Cats

    Aaron Wherry you have it BACKWARDS.

    In order for the registry to survive everyone must vote NO on the first vote

    (A Mark Holland motion passed by the public safety committee to stop consideration of bill C-391)

    And then they need to vote YES for the second vote.

    (The actual bill, which kills the registry if passed.)

    Cats!

  • Cats

    Oops now i've got it backwards.

    In order for the registry to DIE everyone must vote no on the first vote.

    Catsss

  • SooperNoob

    What you call "anti-gun registry misinformation" I call "facts that I've been saying to 15 years that nobody has been able to actually dispute." Just because you don't agree with it doesn't make it a falsehood.

  • Cats

    Example:

    "One no vote (Jean-Yves Roy) remains in question."

    Except he's a YES vote for now on the Holland motion and a NO vote on the registry motion.

    And votes are always described with YEAS first and then NAYS second. So in this case the current count on the sept 22nd vote is:

    149 to 151

  • http://www2.macleans.ca/category/blog-central/national/andrew-coynes-blog/ Andrew Coyne

    I hope MPs aren't this confused.

  • ChrisWPG

    Did you watch the interviews of the NDP on CBC or CTV yesterday? They made it perfectly clear they are more confused then most.

  • Marion

    Remember when the Liberals voted yes and no last spring?

  • tedbetts

    So there really is a vast leftwing conspiracy between the left and all of the police chiefs and all of the police unions as alleged?

    So there really has been mass arrests of poor farmers and hunters for failing to comply?

    So the gun registry really is costing us billions of dollars still?

    So all of the Police Chiefs and all of the Union Bosses (both coming from the ranks) really are just politicians who are more interested in themselves and their own careers than in public safety?

    So there really is not a single shred of evidence that the gun registry is effective and useful, even though countless police reports and police chiefs statements and independent analysis have all provided evidence that it is very effective and quite useful? All those cops are just plain lying?

    So the cops are not actually using the registry thousands and thousands of times every single day? They are just lying are they?

    So the registry has not saved a single life even though the cops and suicide prevention groups and victims groups have claimed it has? They are all lying too?

    So the registry has not helped cops track down criminals who use guns in crimes even though the cops say they have indeed used it to track down criminals who use guns in crimes? Another lie from our cops according to you?

    Nice respect for our nation's security officers you show there.

    The heavily financed gun lobby and far right ideologically bent politicians have indeed been crapping in our ears with falsehoods for 15 years.Just because you don't agree with that statement doesn't make it a falsehood.

Previous

Next

From Macleans