Beyond The Commons

 Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

The race to save the census

by Aaron Wherry on Monday, September 27, 2010 11:31am - 0 Comments

The Liberal opposition says it will move a motion this week calling on the government to reinstate the long-form census and remove the threat of imprisonment for non-compliance. Even if passed by the House, that motion does not compel the government to act.

That motion though will be followed, in short order, by a Liberal private member’s bill, which would, conceivably, be official and binding. With the support of the NDP and BQ, that bill could, to some degree, be accelerated, though it’s unclear precisely how fast it could be moved through the House and when it could be expected to see a final vote.

Timing is, of course, of the essence because the census and the National Household Survey are due to be sent out in May. Liberal Marc Garneau mused late last week that perhaps an insert could be included advising recipients that the NHS is mandatory. Ivan Fellegi, the former chief statistician, has suggested that the whole census could be moved to September.

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  • TwoYen

    For a private member's bill to become law, would it not have to be passed by the Senate, where the government now has a majority?

    • JamesF

      Not until November IIRC, that's only technically thou. If I'm not mistaken the government tends to have a functional majority after absences are taken into account… I may be wrong on that thou. Really, I wouldn't expect the senate to outright reject any bill forwarded to it although they may deliberately drag out the process.

      The more important census issue to watch right now is the francophone court challange (and likely requested injunction) via the Official Languages Act.

    • Mike T.

      Now I see the plan! If they can't have an elected senate (or won't even try it…) they'll make sure nobody ever says "sober second thought" with a straight face again.

  • danby

    It would seem doubtful that the census can be saved.
    The race, as I see it, is a public relations one that can put a considerable dent in Mr Harper's popularity. There is enough opposition to the census move to portray Mr Harper as an unreasonable, unbending ideologue.
    If you can't make him see reason, then make him wear it

    • gottabesaid

      I think the damage to the census has already been done, and will be permanent, even if a last-minute bid to save the long-form is successful. There have been so many mixed signals sent out on this thing that people aren't going to know what to do if they get the long form. The whole situation is frustrating as hell because this non-issue needn't have become an issue in the first place, and now the whole statistical works are all gummed up. Dumb with a capital D.

    • Crit_Reasoning

      I'm really not sure why it can't be saved. Couldn't they just print an insert saying the NHS is mandatory, like Marc Garneau suggested?

      • danby

        Only in the (unlikely) event that Mr Harper decides to bend.
        Otherwise the conservatives will employ every procedural foot dragging tactic at their disposal – and damn the torpedoes.

        • Crit_Reasoning

          Right, but assuming the NHS could become "mandatory" at any point before May 2011 (without threat of imprisonment) I'm not sure it makes sense to say "the damage has already been done".

          In theory, Harper could change his mind at any time in the next seven months (perhaps in response to Opposition motions or bills).

          • James Connors

            In theory, Harper could change his mind . . .

            In theory, Harper is bright enough to know he's doing stupid things.

            In practice; Harper – unless he sees political value to himself – seems to be an idiot.

      • ZestyMordant

        Munir Sheikh also suggested this possibility.
        http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/we-s…

      • gottabesaid

        It's better than what is scheduled to happen at present, but I can envision folks being very obstinate in responding. They've just been told ad nauseum by the government that the mandatory long-form census is horribly intrusive and coercive. They'll probably hear more of the same from the government in the next few weeks. Plus, i'm guessing there's going to be general confusion. You're going to have a ton of people not responding. Just my prediction. Could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong, actually.

        • Crit_Reasoning

          I would suggest that most Canadians haven't been following the census controversy closely, and many aren't even aware of it. I don't think that the well has been poisoned in this regard.

          • gottabesaid

            I hope you're right. I also think it would help things tremendously if the government was on-board with going back to a mandatory census, rather than having the switch-back made without their support through a private members bill. I think that's some very wishful thinking, however!

  • madeyoulook

    From mandatory but never enforced to imprisonment, we are now quibbling over voluntary versus mandatory-in-name-only with ineffectual enforcement.

    Doesn't this country have any REAL problems to debate?

    • Mike T.

      Was prison even mandatory or was it just an available option?

      • madeyoulook

        My understanding, fwiw: Penalties ranged from fines to imprisonment, and people were never imprisoned anyways. So prison was not mandatory, but, as you state, an available option. I am open to correction from people who are more familiar with the law currently in place.

        But if my understanding is pretty close or bang on, this whole debate strikes me as a waste of time, except, as certain policy advocates (like Prof. Gordon) state, to ensure even less helpful participation on the part of Canadians than before.

        • lgarvin

          The reason people were never jailed is that the threat alone was sufficient to get the compliance needed, something on the order of 95%, if I recall correctly. Once Stats-Canada got to that level of completion they just gave up on the most recalcitrant folks.

          I think the whole idea of taking the imprisonment issue off the table is an attempt – and a smart one – to get the Conservatives off their main talking point. I don't think it will work though… these Cons can stick to a talking point like barnacles to a rock.

          • madeyoulook

            But now the Liberals and the CPC are splitting such a useless hair between them, I just wish everyone would shut the —- up about it.

          • lgarvin

            I just wish everyone would shut the —- up about it.

            I think you are in for a long week. :-)

          • madeyoulook

            Yeah, well, given my wishes for governance of this great country, and the actual results, this would not be my first long week.

        • lgarvin

          I think it's rather ironic that a francophone group is appealing to the courts for an injunction but it was also a francophone group ( a different one I expect) who were behind the attempts to manipulate the data during the last census. I wonder if anyone will trouble to bring that up in court?

          I wonder if it's even fair for me to bring it up? Perhaps not.

          • madeyoulook

            If it's not the same group, and if there was no coordination between them on this issue, I would agree with you that it's not fair to bring it up.

    • Stewart_Smith

      The real problem in this country is PEI. It is too small, the sand is the wrong colour and the airport apparently has issues.

      • madeyoulook

        Such admirable restraint — you didn't even bring up its most recently appointed Senator!

      • john g

        Somebody's trying to angle for the next Maclean's cover.

        • Crit_Reasoning

          I suggest this as a main title:
          PEI – THE LAMEST PROVINCE IN CANADA

          Subtitles:
          Why Canada's tiniest province is full of losers p.16
          It shouldn't even be a province p. 20

          Cover Photo:
          Anne of Green Gables holding a gun to her head.

          • lgarvin

            PEI – The Pluto of Canadian Provinces

          • Stewart_Smith

            I like it, we could reclassify it as the first Dwarf Province, and perhaps with a few clever ideas like this
            http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62P0J020100…

            use it to promote tourism.

          • http://dougsamu.wordpress.com doug_rogers

            Captioned " Give us more Senate seats, or I'll shoot this girl!"

          • s_c_f

            The Bridge to Nowhere was a waste of money p.25

          • madeyoulook

            Potatoes? What idiot is still gorging on carbs, anyways? –S. Feschuk, p. 32

      • s_c_f

        The airport is one of the best things about PEI. It's one of the few airports in North America that can be quickly navigated.

        • john g

          Yeah, but the fact that a hardhat is required to avoid randomly flying footwear is a bit of a downer.

          • madeyoulook

            According to published reports, the flying footwear was NOT exactly random.

          • Crit_Reasoning

            According to video evidence, the flying footwear never actually happened.

          • madeyoulook

            Aw, you're not gonna let facts ruin a good story, are you?

          • Crit_Reasoning

            That would be very un-Canadian of me. We love our "good stories".

          • Stewart_Smith

            According to Stockwell's twitter stream, unreported, invisible flying footwear is a very serious problem in this country.

        • madeyoulook

          The blue building terminal at this airport looks rather quickly-navigable, though:
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igloolik_Airport

  • Tony

    Oh Ok, so the voluntary long-form census will again be mandatory, but wilth no threat of imprisonment – just a fine. So what happens if I refuse to pay the fine?

    • Stewart_Smith

      You get summoned to court, a judge tells you to pay the fine, you end up going to jail for contempt of court if you don't pay.

  • s_c_f

    Where did all the Quebecois go? Have Coyne and Patriquin been sacrificied, extradited and hung in effigy?

    • Orson Bean

      I noticed they cut the comments after Coyne's piece after they reached 600+ (and said comments, prior to said cutoff, were notable for the inordinate numbers of apparent Quebeckers coming on there to rant at Coyne, etc.).

    • madeyoulook

      Maybe they're off in a secluded location drafting their apology. Rumor-in-my-own-mind has it S Feschuk & K Whyte are not seeing eye-to-eye on the wording.

      Actually, a thought hit me over the weekend. I now think that an apology IS in order, but only one: to Le Carnaval. If the organizers graciously permitted their trademark Bonhomme character to be used, without receiving a fair explanation about how the mascot was going to be used, then Maclean's should feel some remorse over its too-clever manipulation. The bit about the corruption is newsworthy and comment-worthy. The juxtaposition of a well-liked brand with corruption, when that brand had nothing to do with the story, was unfair. And Maclean's has just burnt bridges with anyone else who might have considered grantinig permission in this manner in future.

      • s_c_f

        Maybe so, but it's not likely to happen now, since apologies are construed as guilt in a court of law, and the Bonhomme has hired a lawyer. http://lcn.canoe.ca/lcn/infos/regional/archives/2…

        • madeyoulook

          Well, given where my thoughts have migrated over the last couple of days, I have a sense that this would be the only claimant who might have a case.

          And if there is a settlement in this process, an apology would almost certainly be part of it.

        • madeyoulook

          Just noticed: the Patriquin piece is now "full text" and there is a "clarification" that has quite a contrite whiff to it, at least towards Bonhomme Carnaval.

          UPDATE 5 hrs later: The Coyne piece has the "clarification" now, too.

  • Standing By

    I don't believe the government's claim that the printing of the census forms is all that big a deal. The idea that Canada lacks the printing capacity to redo the long form before next May is preposterous. What surprises me is how easy it is to peddle and seemingly get away with this kind of nonsense. Doesn't anyone actually fact check this kind of claim any more?

    Having said that, there is a legitimate question as to whether the Harper government has so poisoned the atmosphere that it may not actually be possible to conduct an accurate and reliable census in the short term. I think this may well be the case, and if it is, then I see no reason not to take whatever time is needed to maybe mount a serious campaign to restore confidence in the census. It wouldn't hurt a bit if there was a change in government as well.

    So maybe we should just agree that we need a full census, but better to do it in 2012, once the dust has settled. Anything done in the current climate is probably not going to produce reliable data, and may be a total waste of time and money.

  • john g

    Can someone who understands these things please explain why sometimes these things are binding and sometimes they are not? What determines whether a vote is binding?

  • madeyoulook

    My guess is that it is a motion "calling on" the government to do something. It is NOT new legislation or an amendment to existing legislation.

    So it sounds like an ineffectual piece of nothing that can be ignored even more easily than the not-quite-official-enough confidence vote that Paul Martin lost, then ignored because he could.

  • s_c_f

    I don't think the bill is binding either. A non-government bill cannot compel the government to spend money. I can't see how they can run a census without spending money. Therefore the bill will be ignored. This happened with the bill to implement the Kyoto accord, a bill to implement the Kelowna accord, and various other worthless opposition bills.

  • hardmouth

    This debate is now pointless, it's now too late to save the long-form census. The point of no return has been reached, the forms have been printed, the damage is irreversible. If civil servants were to receive orders tomorrow to re-instate, they wouldn't be able to do it in time, and not without considerable extra expense

  • Emily

    'But former chief statistician Ivan Fellegi said Ottawa could postpone the whole census to September 2011 from May, gaining a few extra months to re-establish the long census.'

    http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20…

  • Mike T.

    Yes, i am no expert but I think a delay, if short enough, could minimize damage to the point of nelgigibility.

  • c_9

    They could use the extra $30 million that the govt is planning to spend on the NHS to help recover from the damages… ah, who am I kidding.

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