Beyond The Commons

 Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Generation gap

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, October 8, 2010 1:18pm - 0 Comments

Eric Grenier from threehundredeight.com compares how young and old voters would divvy up the House of Commons and gets the following standings.

Young
Liberals 104
Bloc Quebecois 60
NDP 53
Conservatives 46
Greens 43

Old
Conservatives 192
Liberals 106
Bloc Quebecois 9

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  • gottabesaid

    This is interesting, but hardly surprising, or consequential. Folks generally become more conservative as the get older — I believe the technical term for the phenomenon is the 'Old Coot Factor'. Also, young people don't have a habit of voting in the first place… on account of them being distracted by their facebooks and computer machines and all.

    • Orson Bean

      I think part of it too has to do with a feeling of disengagement. When you're younger, it's more often the case that your job (if you have one) is an entry level job or a McJob. You likely don't have much if anything in the way of savings, and retirement, for example, is an issue that doesn't resonate with you at all. So issues like pension policy, RRSP limits and stuff like that are, in your view, utterly unconsequential to you. Because you're less likely to have a job and if you have a job it's more likely to be entry level or McJob, you pay either no taxes at all or you're not paying a lot of tax, both in absolute terms and in terms of the tax bracket you're in. You're also less likely to own a home, so you don't pay property taxes (which is the cash cow for municipal governments). And you're less likely to have kids so you couldn't care less about the quality of schools in your neigbourhood. All of these things taken together mean that you're far less motivated to care about a lot of the issues that fill up our everyday political discourse.

      • Mike T.

        The big political parties also have a reputation for not moving on issues of direct importance to the young, such as the cost of post-secondary education.

        • Iccyh

          Its a spiral: politicians ignore the young, so the young ignore the politicians, so the politicians ignore the young…

      • gottabesaid

        Maybe it's disengagement… maybe its a feeling of being irreversibly disenfranchised… maybe they're just bone lazy. Maybe it's a combination of all the above.

        • Orson Bean

          One thing I've definitely noticed among my friends, family and others is how having children seems to instill a certain social conservatism in a lot people. For one thing, I think the parenting instinct makes people very sensitive to crime and public safety issues. Parents absolutely freak out about the prospect of their children being abducted, etc. And naturally politicians can and do exploit that. Also, marijuana legalization — I wish I had a dollar for every person I know who smoked pot (often with gusto) up until they became a parent, and then turned around 180 degrees on the issue, becuase they don't want their kid doing it.

          • Mike T.

            The literal "Mommy State"

  • Mike T.

    The liberals of a generation become the conservatives of the next.

    • Jenn_

      It's like I'm living a Brad Pitt movie character!

  • Orson Bean

    "If a man is not a socialist in his youth, he has no heart. If he is
    not a conservative by the time he is 30 he has no head" — Georges
    Clemenceau, Former French Prime Minister and one-time radical. (Often mistakenly attributed to Churchill).

    Thus the NDP numbers.

    • tobyornotoby

      My head tells me that the people masquerading as "conservative" federally are a fiscal train wreck and a parliamentary blight. The word has become so bastardized in media and in political discourse that it no longer has any real meaning.

    • Charles H.

      Nah, it's not Clemenceau either. (He did say something similar — "My son is 22 years old. If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him. If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then." — though it's been suggested that he merely modified an already existing saying.)

      • Orson Bean

        I've read long-winded explanations of the progeny of this quote, and I agree that the source of its original incarnation is a matter of some dispute. Most think it originated with a Frenchman from the 19th Century, which is why Clemenceau would have been familiar with it.

        • Emily

          It doesn't matter who said it. It no longer applies.

          • Orson Bean

            . . . despite the fact that the overwhelming statistical evidence shows that young people are more likely to vote for left-leaning parties and older people are more likely to vote for conservative parties. Got it.

          • Emily

            Really?

            Libs were govt for 75% of the 20th century.

          • Orson Bean

            I'm talking about likelihood, not absolutes. And in any event, for much of the 20th century, the Liberal Party of Canada was decidedly a centrist party, not terribly left-wing (Trudeau was probably the most left-leaning of all Liberal leaders), and not terribly right-wing. It was a classic big-tent party, able to be many things to most people.

          • Jan

            If fewer young people vote , and older people are more likely to vote Conservative, how do you explain that 2/3's of Canadian voters aren't voting Conservative.

          • Orson Bean

            As I said to Emily above, it's a matter of likelihoods and tendencies, not absolutes. Lots of people aren't voting conservaative. But those who are are more likely to be older; those who aren't are more likely to be younger, that's all.

          • Thwim

            I think the problem you're running into is the same generalization issue you were upset at me for. Being older doesn't mean you're going to vote conservative, but voting conservative means you're more likely to be older.

            It's not hard to take a look at that and realize it doesn't actually imply any future success for conservatives as people grow older, but rather simply a slowing of decline. Combine that with the baby-boomers dying off and Gen-X being much smaller than their younger Gen-Y counterparts and I don't think it's a terrible stretch to say where we are now may be about as far right as the pendulum will swing.

          • Iccyh

            As I'm sitting in a statistics class right now:
            Correlation is not causation.

          • Reverend_Blair

            The educated are more likely to vote for left-leaning parties and the less-educated to vote more conservatively, too.

            It could be that youth today are better educated and therefore more likely to vote Liberal or NDP.

          • hosertohoosier

            How many 18-21 year olds have university degrees, exactly?

          • Thwim

            How many 18-21 year olds are in university these days.. in relative comparison with before?

          • hosertohoosier

            What overwhelming evidence? For instance in the 2000 election, Gore won older voters by 4 points while tying Bush among the youngest of voters. In a social security election, young people will be more likely to support the right wing position.

            Young people MAY be more idealistic, but depending upon the setting, it may be free market or socially conservative ideas that represent the primary challenge to the received wisdom. I may be an odd case, but I have never experienced conservative authority figures first-hand.

        • Charles H.

          Possibly (probably?) the same explanations I've read.

  • Simon

    Actually, in the future those 'voters' will be all grown up, at which point many of them will come to their senses and vote conservative. :)

    • Jan

      I hate to beak it to you but Harper will be long gone.

      • Simon

        What's that – 'breaking news' from the future? Riiiiight. There is a well-established pattern of vote maturation from leftist to conservative. We can count on that continuing, especially in Canada, which seems to be on a steady path of returning to its conservative roots.

        The oft-repeated claim that PM Harper is on his way out is wishful thinking, and reflects ignorance of voting results in the last few elections. Harper has increased both his vote count and seat count in 3 consecutive elections. Nobody else has even come close to that kind of performance. There is no reason to think that won't be repeated in the next election – resulting in a majority government. As they say, slow and steady wins the race….

        • Jan

          You guys are going to need grief therapy.

        • gottabesaid

          Old conservatives can't vote if they're dead… while there's a trend that people tend to be more conservative as they get older, the old conservative voters die off and are replaced by young liberal voters, who gradually become more conservative until they die… and so on… and so on.

          Also, until I see the Conservatives adopting real small-c conservative values, I'm not going to agree that Canada is returning to its conservative roots.

          • hosertohoosier

            You are assuming that the ideological positions of Canada's political parties would not shift to adjust for changing voter preferences. Given that political parties seek to win elections above all else, this is a rather bad assumption.

        • DerekPearce

          As long as the Bloc remains popular in Quebec no party will win a majority government.

      • Gary

        And with him gone the Conservative party ceases to exist???

        • MostlyCivil

          I had a Conversation like this about 15 years ago.

          I was talking to a friend about the Progressive Conservative Party. He said the Reform Party could never take over. "How could a party like the PC Party just cease to exist" he said?

        • Reverend_Blair

          It might, at least in it's present form. I'm not sure there's anybody else who can juggle the various conservative factions. You could very well see some version of Reform (with major input from McVety and the religious right), some version of the PCs (likely with a greener slant), and a new right-wing nationalist party in Quebec. The lack of a suitable replacement is likely the only reason Harper gets away with muzzling his party.

          On the other hand, I can't see Harper sticking around if he gets fewer seats in the next election. If he loses he's gone for sure, but even a minority win would likely see him out of there. Three minorities would be bad, but three with a shrinking seat count would be seen as a disaster, I think.

    • brooster

      …a development that used to be called senile dementia

  • Greg Arious

    Note to Emily. Goodbye Liberals, hello coalition.

    • Emily

      Note to Greg. Goodbye Cons altogether.

  • Iccyh

    If only the the old didn't completely outnumber the young, if only the young would actually bother to vote.

    I don't think this is a vision of the future as much as it is a picture of how much of a disconnect there is between "young" people and the political status quo, there is absolutely no guarantee the young will be willing or able to do anything about this.

    • Emily

      If only the old didn't die off.

      • Iccyh

        That's the thing: relative to previous generations, they aren't dying off. Better healthcare and nutrition means people are living longer and longer, and personally I expect that my generation will forever have limited political impact because we'll either be outnumbered by either older or younger generations.

        • Emily

          And older people are more interested in pensions and home care than fighter planes and prisons for pot.

          • Iccyh

            So why are the Conservatives so popular with older people?
            Your assertion doesn't mesh with the information presented in the initial post.

          • Emily

            Depends on which older people you're talking about.

            First wave of the boomers turns 65 next year.

  • ex-canuck

    Presumably, these young people have or will have inherited sufficient funds to finance their interests as articulated by you.

  • Emily

    Churchill died half a century ago.

  • MostlyCivil

    You'll need a higher fence and mousetraps on your lawn. Cuz of the kids. On your lawn.

  • MostlyCivil

    I'm looking forward to Maxime-led conservatives.

    "Okay, Maxime, we can get da yout vote, but we godda change your name to "Extreme" Bernier"

  • ColdStanding

    Hmm… let's have a referendum on raising the voting age to say, 25 or 30 years old. Use it or loose it, people. All is fair in love and war. You don't miss something until it is gone. (Please note: no adages have been varied in making this post)

    I can bet the elders would be all over this and win. The youths are just too busy being young.

    • Emily

      Voting age is going down, not up

      I don't know how anyone can be 'busy being young'.

      • ColdStanding

        Is it really that you don't know how, or is it that you just can't be bothered to think it through?

        • Emily

          Well you are either young or you aren't….so it doesn't require 'busyness'.

          If you mean partying….young people are also doing a multitude of other things, and most of them are more serious than the 'par-tay' crowd.

          • ColdStanding

            Can't be bothered it is, then.

  • john g

    Does anyone else sense a private member's bill to raise the voting age to 50?

    • Emily

      LOL those would be boomers…not the kind to vote for fighterplanes and prison for pot

    • Claudia Lemire

      Oh, God… that would be funny!

      • craigola

        Everyone in the country under 50 would freak out and get the bill defeated. Then, the very next election, voter turnout would be exactly the same as it was before. Or worse.

        • Claudia Lemire

          Oh, I agree with you 100%.

          Imagine if someone would actually consider doing that?

  • Mark

    I don't really know much about Quebec (forgive me, I'm on the left coast), but I'm kinda surprised at the number of young people who would vote for the Bloc. What am I missing here?

    • Emily

      The Bloc has more of a platform than separatism. They are also more into socialism.

      • Reverend_Blair

        If you watch them on CPAC (beyond QP) they're also good at representing their constituents. Pretty much every time I watch committees, it's the Bloc bringing up relevant points and acting like adults. I can certainly understand why they attract a non-separatist vote, especially in times when separation isn't a major issue.

    • Orson Bean

      As I recall, it's historically and consistently been the case in Quebec that support for sovereignty is higher among the younger demographic. But I haven't seen any recent numbers on that. It makes some intuitive sense, though. Young people tend to be both more idealistic and less risk-averse.

  • avr

    Keep dreaming. Yours is the fantasy of every imagined vanguard-of-the-revolution.

  • LdKitchenersOwn

    As has been pointed out above, sure, voters tend to move right as they age, but that doesn't totally help the Tories either. I'd wager that for every Liberal voter who "matures" into a Tory voter, there are two NDP voters who turn to the Greens, and two Greens who turn to the Liberals.

    So, even if voters tend to drift to the right as they get older, it's worth pointing out to the Tories that comparatively few will ever drift THAT far.

  • Peterborough Dave

    No, not a brain, it's "Doesn't have a head". And it wasn't Churchill, and yes, as Charles pointed out, he crossed over often.

  • peter

    No Emily, it's same old same old. The young lack the capacity to recognize ugly truths and are easily bamboozled by sweet talking love and peace lefties. People who are only are able to carry on as they do because of the sacrifices of their forebearers. Until infiltrated by outright communists and Stalin's useful idiots in academia, the five best countries in the world to live in were: The US, Canada, Uk, Oz and NZ.. All share, common law, Christian heritage and the English language. Now we are in a race to the bottom with EU technocrats and "socialism lite". That which you mindlessly bleat for has led to nothing but disaster in every nation state it has been implemented in…but don't let actual events and human nature of millenia cloud your idealism and naivity's, its just got to be true this time. No matter how smart the technocrats and bureaucrats claim to be, events and human nature always force them to become thugs for the state.

  • Mr Irrelevant

    Most of these people aren't hard partisans nor will they become hard partisans. They'll often vote on events, leaders etc. Non-ideological stuff, just like plenty of people do now. I imagine they will retain some of their youthful leftism but like everyone always does, they will vote for their wallet in crunch time, whatever they perceive that to mean at the time.
    Also it's already been pointed out many times already that young people won't remain fixed in their political views but will change with time. The same is true of the parties. They will adapt as the public changes. It is probably futile to try and predict the results of the 2036 general election based on these poll results.

  • lenny

    I don't think the stats neccessarily reflect a changing politics with age. I think their just as likely to reflect an inability to change. For example, a 60-something Lib/Con swing voter might say "OMG! they let the queers marry!" and be pushed all the way over to the Conservative side, while most teenagers regardless of ideology probably can't believe there was a time when same-sex marriage wasn't legal, and couldn't care less about it.

  • s_c_f

    A lot of people become conservative after they see the deductions on their first paycheque and they realize their teachers have been lying to them all those years, that's it's not just the rich that are soaked. The single largest expense everyone will have is their government, much more than food, clothing or shelter. That's when the NDP/Libs lose their lustre.

    Looking at the BQ numbers, you wonder when the next referendum will be.

    • NorthernPoV

      "The single largest expense everyone will have is their government"

      a typical misleading statement that dumbs down the debate

      the value of the SERVICES and INFRASTRUCTURE provided by the government is by far the greatest value everyone enjoys – including millionaires and paupers

      try driving your luxury SUV around without any roads or stop signs!

      • s_c_f

        There's nothing misleading about my statement. It's true and you've done nothing to indicate otherwise. Most of the money we hand over to the government is handed over to other people in the form of welfare checques, UI cheques and medical care. If you're healthy and not poor, you receive almost nothing in return for the money you hand over.

        • NorthernPoV

          Are you really that thick?

          Civil society is the basic enabler of the systems that generate and sustain our well being … and wealth.

          You want to return to hunter-gathering, I take it. Cavemen paid no tax!

          • s_c_f

            Yes, you really are that thick. Go ahead, pay $15 for an apple, or $1000 for a pair of shoes. If you like to waste your earnings, do it yourself. I don't like to waste mine.

        • Thwim

          Other than a fairly stable society which you don't have to worry about either catching plague from the sick people you pass on the street, or being guillotined when they become jealous of your riches.

  • hosertohoosier

    Also, for some perspective, in the Canadian Election Survey, people born from 1984-1990 voted as follows:

    CPC: 34.1%
    LPC: 19.7%
    NDP: 24.2%
    BQ: 14%
    Green: 8%

    This was not that far off from the Ekos pre-election poll (with the exception of the overestimation of Green support).

    CPC: 32%
    LPC: 19%
    NDP: 26%
    BQ: 18%
    Green: 15%

    What this suggests to me is that a big part of Harper's decline in support since 2008 took place among young voters. So this is a real challenge.

  • hosertohoosier

    I agree that young people do not necessarily grow more conservative, but they don't necessarily hold to the same voting patterns as they did when they were younger. Moreover, your old-new dichotomy is laughably wrong. You fear/hate Harper precisely because he represents a new direction, relative to the past 90 years or so of rule by Liberal PMs or liberal PC PMs.

    Canada has long been a country of peacekeepers, emphasized rehabilitation of criminals, had open borders to immigrants, and invested significantly in education. Insofar as the Tories want to change these things (and you are, as usual, the queen of hyperbole) it is THEY who are proposing a radical new direction. Insofar as Canadian politics is about old vs. new, it is geezers embracing the new and young people embracing the old.

  • Billy McCreight

    I love reading all these posts. Liberals think Cons are stupid, NDPites think Cons are stupid and Cons think everyone is stupid and not aggressive enough.

    Who cares what these numbers say, they are just numbers. They did a male/female comparison too. Do the Cons voters think their wives are separatist, socialite morons for voting for other parties other than the Cons? I doubt it, not out loud at least (unless they like couches)

    These are all just stats brought up to cause debate and people lose it. The fact remains that when men/women/young/old/black/white/chinese voted, Canada had voted in a minority Conservative government. I'm personally a 27 year old NDP voter that could care less what other people think of my choice and I don't care what other people choose to vote for, which is how it should be. We have the right to vote and the right to free speech, unfortunately some people use that 2nd right to chastise people for not voting for the party they like.

  • Charles H.

    Strange then, that Churchill was a Conservative throughout his 20s, then crossed the floor to the Liberals just before he turned 30 and didn't cross back until he was almost 50.

    (Of course, Churchill never said that quote, but it's worth pointing out the ridiculousness of it.)

  • Gary

    Thanks for the correction. I got some bad info from the links I was searching. After more digging, I found it has been misattributed to him.

    I still think it is bang on regardless of the author!

  • Emily

    It just doesn't apply anymore.

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