Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

The Vaughan referendum

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, October 22, 2010 6:40pm - 0 Comments

Three by-elections are now reportedly expected to see votes next month, perhaps most notably the riding of Vaughan—a Liberal seat to be sought by a “star” Conservative candidate in a hotly contested area of southern Ontario. An impartial Conservative sets up the contest as follows.

“We are obviously very excited about our candidate there, Julian Fantino, and it says a lot about our party that we are able to attract such a strong candidate,” a Conservative spokesperson said, speaking on background. “But at the end of the day, given that the Official Opposition should win by-elections and that this is a traditional safe Liberal seat, this is Ignatieff’s to lose.”

Tags: by-election, Julian Fantino, Michael Ignatieff, Stephen Harper, Vaughan

More by Aaron Wherry

Emily

Byelections normally have a very poor turn-out, and people usually vote on local concerns….but Blatch's book is out shortly, so it may be livelier than usual.

Orson Bean

This by-election will get more attention than usual, I think. And you're right, it will be interesting to see what effect Blatch's book, and the incidents depicted in it, will have on the campaign.
Orson Bean

One really wonky result was the Vancouver Quadra by-election a couple of years ago, which occurred because Stephen Owen bailed. The Liberals had held the riding since, I believe, 1988, and had been winning by nice healthy margins. Then that by-election came along and the Tory Val Meredith came very close to taking it from Liberal Joyce Murray. It had people musing whether Quadra was actually winnable for the Tories. But then last election, it went right back true to old form, and Val Meredith wasn't even close — Murray won easily.

So that may well be an example of what Emily's talking about — perhaps low turnout, plus one side doing a much better job of getting the vote out, can produce odd/skewed results.

Cats

Historically the government side has done poorly in byelections.

But Harper is very good at base turnout, which is very helpful in low turnout environments. So he tends to "steal" seats.

Maybe he'll steal all the seats! MAYBE.

Cats says maybe.

burlivespipe

Wah! CONs already making excuses even though they've got their lone star 'chamber' candidate in the driver's seat…. Who's gonna buy that load of bull? This is Harper's record on the line and his so-called 'war against the registry' to the test. No flea-bloated feline is able to convince me otherwise…

Cats

You do know that Vaughan was a +15% Liberal riding last election right ??

A 15 point CPC swing to victory = massive majority government.

So yeah I guess Harper's massive majority government is on the line.

I'm OK with a loss though. I'll settle for a slim majority government too.

Cats away!
MostlyCivil

"A 15 point CPC swing to victory = massive majority governmen"

Cats do leap.
Cats

Not good at political analysis ??

Go add 15% to every riding the CPC ran in last election and you get A LOT of Tory blue. You get a massive majority.

Cats away!
MostlyCivil

That's not political analysis.

That's a combination of fantasy, and basic math. With a soupcon of delusion thrown in…

Mike T.

So what transparent liar gave the quote?

Cats

Why is this person a liar ?

Their statement is factually true. This is Ignatieff's seat to lose.

If he loses it then his leadership will be questioned.

Questioning Cats!

craigola

Yeah, but if he WINS it, his leadership will still be questioned.

Claudia Lemire

Not really because it is already expected to win. I know it seems unfair and perhaps it is but politics it's a dirty game!

Mike T.

It's NOT an expected Liberal win. It's an expected loss.

Cats

Actually there are two other ridings at play.

Western ridings.

if he can improve his percentages over Dion he can start crowing about a western breakthrough. It'll be a big boost for him. He doesn't even need to win, just needs to get his numbers up over '08.

Opportunity Cats!

Claudia Lemire

I kind of agree with that, but still he needs a good performance!

sourstud

You do realize the quote is an opinion, right? Do you think that everybody with opinions that differ from your own are "liars" now? Where is the lie?

Mike T.

You do realize when a party member says something ridiculous and which benefits their party their usually lying, right?

If not, I would like very very much to play high stakes card games with you.

Orson Bean

It ain't just Tory hacks who are saying this is Ignatieff's seat to lose. I don't think anybody would characterize Chantal Hebert as a Tory Hack:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/876782…

As Hebert points out, the Liberals have had that seat for 22 years now, and are used to winning it by quite healthy margins.

Mike T.

not the point.

Orson Bean

Ok, I readily concede I can be thick at times. What is the point then?
Mike T.

Nor is it what the article actually, y'know, says.

It's a conservative star candidate in somewhat friendly territory – if Harper can't put Julian Fantino into a 905 riding, expect it to have repercussions.

Orson Bean

I suppose there are different ways you could pithily summarize Hebert's article. One fair summary would be: the Liberals have had this riding since 1988, and have usually won it by very healthy margins. If they lose it in this by-election, that spells trouble for Ignatieff. Do you disagree?

Orson Bean

However, I also agree that trouble would cut both ways. I think both parties stand to lose a lot, in terms of "face", on losing this by-election. You're right that the Tories have recruited a star candidate, and any time you do that, you risk losing face, because you've assigned importance to the race by the very act of recruiting a star candidate.
Mike T.

I am glad you can see the other side. But past history is very different from much of 1998 to present (no vote splitting now, by-election, star candidate, CPC targetting 905).

Even Bigcitylib says the Libs have lost Vaughan for now.
sourstud

Even Bigcitylib says the Libs have lost Vaughan for now
Ha! Cause if a Liberal blogger says it, it MUST be true!
Orson Bean

Sounds a lot to me like Liberals trying to create low expectations for themselves and having handy, ready-made excuses if they lose.

Cats

Uh huh.

So what Mike T. is saying is that Harper will win every 905 seat next election ?

Ok. We'll take that majority.

Cats away!

Mike T.

Who on earth plus oned that babbling feline?
Cats

I see a lot of minuses beside your comments too.

I guess people don't like reflexive pro-Liberal blind partisanship eh ?

Eh Cats ?

Stewart_Smith

The key issue in this riding: Who will be Vaughan with the win?

madeyoulook

Frankly, my dear Stu…

Anon 001

A by-election this close to an expected general election, no matter how you spin it, is going to have an impact, although with Christmas coming, the impact will disappear.

TwoYen

What gives you the impression these by-elections will be close to the General Election? We don't know when the GE will be. I wouldn't be surprised if the GE doesn't happen until 2012. Even if a GE happens next Spring, that is almost 6 mnths from now.

Anon 001

Yes, but it will be about 4 months from the by-election, or less if the budget comes down in February. Iggy will be 64 next year. He is not going to wait or the Liberals will Dionize him.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Hmm. Wondering why the word "star" is in quotation marks in front of the word "candidate" in reference to Fantino.

Emily

He's a name-recognition candidate
Mr Irrelevant

I saw 30 replies and expected to see a really thorough discussion of what exactly makes a star candidate. Imagine my disappointment when I saw the result was the only discussion on earth even more boring than that one.

Orson Bean

You got that one right.

Emily

Doesn't matter….it's just name recognition. Same as Marc Garneau or Peter Kent or Ken Dryden.

What they call a 'star' candidate. That is, not Fred Smulch from down the street…a total unknown, even if he walks on water.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Let me try this for a third time: Why the need for quotation marks in Wherry's original post?

Emily

Because it's a relatively new political phrase.

Don't sweat the small stuff Dennis

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

In other words, you've merely been agitating for you party rather than answering my question. And if it's such small stuff, why so much effort on your part?

Emily

Well, you've made a career out of sweating the small stuff, so why should your current 'question' be any different, I suppose
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

No, you've made a career out of agitating for your party. Is this your life? Thanks for showing up.
Emily

LOL…. Dennis….the little blue man.
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

This is all you have. And you spend your life doing it. Thanks.
Emily

You and Cat are the perfect pair. LOL
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Does somebody pay you to always have the last word, or is this a religion to you? Or, better yet, do you think there's substance in anything you have to say?
Emily

Con Meow Mix in fact. LOL
sourstud

Dennis, you need to realize that Emily has no life outside of this message board. She literally spends her entire day here lying, and when her BS is called, she uses the one thing she has more of than other people: time. But she's a senile old lady, so give her a break. It's actually fun to play logic games with her, sorta like having a cat chase a piece of yarn.
Emily

LOL methinks you're more like sourgrapes.

I'm rarely here in fact, certainly no more than others. I run a business online, so I pop in here occasionally. I guess you just can't keep up argument-wise.
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

You're constantly on these types of boards, and you never keep up with the arguments of those who dare oppose you. You resent opponents. Always have. I guess you need it.
Emily

I'm constantly online, yes….I run a business online.

You lose arguments all the time…to me, and everyone else on here…and people picked that up about you long time ago.
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Even in this thread, you can't answer the simple question of why "star" is in quotation marks without engaging in a personal jihad. Give me a break.
Emily

I answered you in my first post. Then your paranoia took over.
sourstud

Attempting to sell Liberal party lies and antiquated ideas on Macleans.ca does not constitute "running a business online". It's called trolling.
Emily

Nope, it doesn't. I run a global business involving economics and development….which is why I'm a 21st century type, and not interested in old political crud. Which is what Cons are selling.

I'm not interested in any local political party….sorry
Cats

Lol really ? But aren't you the one who said the US had a low corporate tax rate ??

But aren't you the one who said there are no polls showing a CPC lead ??

And why bring me into this conversations ? Its CATS not CAT.

OBVIOUSLY CATS.
DPT

given how many threads you follow and how often you comment that is a blatant lie. You're business on line is the same lie as you spout about not being a sad left wing toadie. Pathetic!
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Oh, I'm very familiar with her. She posted as "Nola" on the old Bourque Newswatch boards for years. At least here she has to abide be some semblance of decorum. Over there, she basically ran things, and it was a sewer.
Emily

Dennis loses on every board he tries is what he's saying. LOL

Makes him cranky. So he turns to personal attacks. It''s a Con trait I've noticed.
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

I don't have to hide who I am. I don't have to engage in these knee-jerk personal attacks. Thank you.
Emily

Well except that you engage in personal attacks all the time….

And I've seen what you advertise on My Space, so no you don't hide yourself…..you just wonder why you get weird sex calls, and figure it's the census calling you. LOL

Listen kid….sourgrapes too…knock yourselves out all weekend attacking me if you like…I don't mind. It's easier than either of you having to come up with a genuine point or argument, right?

And it keeps you both off the street. LOL
sourstud

How do you "lose" when posting on a discussion board online? I wasn't aware that discussions had winners and losers. That's an interesting world-view that you bring here from 1920 though, thanks!
Emily

LOL gee….like winning an argument or a debate is an unheard of idea.

Update yourself to 2020, friend. Canada has more serious concerns than a bunch of self-important Con cheerleaders flogging stuff from 1776.

Anon Liberal

Well it's not as if it's an objective category. I mean when are you a "star"? How is that measured? Q rating or something?

I suppose you're a "star" when other people start describing you as such which makes the quotation marks appropriate.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

No, you put it in quotation marks when you're questioning its use or appropriateness, or when you don't want to use the term yourself. By anyone's standards, Fantino is a star candidate. Must be hard for Wherry to admit it.

chet

I suspect the s,t,a and r keys felt like little pieces of burning coal as he typed the word.

The quotation marks were the balm to dull the pain.

VinceClortho

Vaughan was Bevilaqua's riding. He was a blue Liberal. The riding has usually been Liberal territory due to the the historical connection of the Liberal party to the Italian Canadian community.

The notable crack in that relationship showed up in the Harris years provincially when al Paladini won that riding and held it provincially. This was considered big news, that an Italian Canadian riding would vote anything other than Liberal….that was 15 years ago.

The Libs are attempting to low bridge this one, but it is making a virtue of necessity. Without a name from the community to go against Fantino the riding will likely go Con. The name is the largest reason but the shift in the voting choice set of the Italian Canadian community is the other. The community has strong members in both tribes, which is an enormous shift from 30 years ago when they could be taken for granted by the Liberals. Fantino will own this seat the way Bevillaqua did and the way Palladini did provincially.

Ignatieff would be wise to steer clear of it, any investment he makes in it, without a Fantino Liberal equivalent, is a lost one…..all in my humble opinion of course.

Calgary Junkie

You may be right about Ignatieff being "wise to steer clear". But I think it's too late, given his leaked statements within the Lib caucus meeting: "Everyone’s support is needed for this". I assume by "everyone", he includes himself.

One of Iggy's challenges, is that he has to prove himself on the "campaigning" side of his job. I'm sure Liberal MPs will be watching him closely, so that they can extrapolate on how he would do in a general election. The question I would have, if I were a Liberal candidate is: Will Iggy be an asset or a liability to my re-election campaign ? Can I ride to victory on his coat-tails, or will he be a loose cannon, that sinks my ship ?

Lee Barol

I sincerely hope Cats has been neutered. Wouldn't want anyone drowning kittens.
Jan

The gossip is that Fantino will be kept quiet and far away from the media. I take it he can be a bit of a loose cannon.

Mike T.

Plus the Cons are pretty sure they'll sacrifice Quebec in the next election. If they want a majority they NEED the 905 – they'll be throwing everything they have into this one.

Cats

Wait.

Didn't Harper just win a Quebec by-election last fall ?

Isn't there another Quebec by-election coming up for which he is going all out too ?

Premature News of Annihilation Cats.

chet

A conservative may win in a liberal stronghold?

In a by-election?

How can this be? The media elites have been telling us that Harper has been a disaster, why with such scandalous actions of wanting to reduce in size a FORTY page census document.

And what about wanting to buy fighter jets to replace our old fighter jets. Oh sure every political party since planes began to fly has had to replace an aging fleet with a more technically advanced one….but this is Harper, so it's scandalous.

How dare the voters not comply with the leftist media's meme.

Don't they know what's good for them?

Richard_S_Argent

You have it wrong chet – it's not a "conservative" winning in a "liberal stronghold", it's a man named "Fantino" winning in "Vaughan".

And if you knew anything about the area it wouldn't surprise you in the slightest.

Mike T.

He knows.

The (paid? party volunteer?) posters are doing exactly what the unnamed quoter in the column is doing.

Matlock

I'll say again, they reduced it from forty pages to… FORTY pages! And somehow spent $30 million in doing so.

That type of business sense certainly explains why Harper didn't spend any time in the private sector, he'd have been fired very quickly.

chet

And what of the fact that a voting bloc of Muslim and African countries, most of whom range from undemocratic to theocratic dictatorships,

voted against "Harper's Canada"?

We were told this brought Canada into disgrace. Voter's aren't going take this by-election oportunity to punish the party in power for this great shame?

Say it ain't so Aaron.

Say it ain't so.
John D

"given that the Official Opposition should win by-elections"

LOL whut?

Richard_S_Argent

Yeah, I was wondering about that as well. Since when has that ever been the case??

Pat

Since Harper made it up.

I will give him this: he is very good at controlling the message.

VinceClortho

Thats not completely fair. By elections have seen numerous upsets and is usually a safe way of voting against the government. I can think of upsets like Jim Coutts loss in the Spadina riding to Dan Heap, or the win by the NDP in Quebec.

The question is though, were those really upsets given that those ridings continued in the new colour after the by election. Is it the power of incumbency that kept the riding in its old hands long past its due to change date?

By elections have traditionally been seen as a time for protest votes. But Harper is stretching it in Vaughan….all sides are trying to set a low expectation so they can exceed them on election night. But the Liberals have the hardest time doing that because it was their seat.
Jan

Cons make up the rules and change them as they go along. We're not supposed to notice.

Cats

Since Trudeau had a mini-election and lost.

By-elections have a history of going against the government.

Cats away!

NorthernPoV

If Fantino can be managed through this by-election he may win it thanks to ethnic affinity (ala-Pallidino), suburban law-n-order fetishes and the usual Canadian vote splitting to the left of Attila the Hun.

Fantino is a political land mine waiting to be triggered. Whether he blows on the by-election trail or later on, the explosion is a virtual certainty. The Cons will regret this and wish they had left the Fantino model on the shelf next to the other political wannabe in a uniform: HIllier.

John D

Yeah, I'm honsestly surprised they think this is a good idea. He's not worth it for one seat.

Vic

I'm a Conservative voter. Fantino makes me nauseous; I hope he loses very badly.
NorthernPoV

@Dennis_F
"By anyone's standards" as decided by who: you? hehe
such a thin skin when it comes to spin
or is that you envy Wherry's diabolical subtlety, as your spin is always so crude?

and if the great Fantino really is a """" star """"
then sooner or later he will be a """" falling star """"

(the extra quotes are free of charge, btw ;-)
Michael

Lived in Vaughan most of my life. The real lesson is that in Vaughan, if you're Italian and well-known, you'll win.

The supercop would win in Vaughan if he was running for the Communist Party.

VinceClortho

yup….

Emily

Liberal candidate is Italian too.

billwjames

Voters should remember, and vote ABC.

12 billion dollar Liberal surplus gone.
56 billion dollar Harper deficit here.
544 billion dollar debt and rising fast.

Still to come.
Large payroll tax EI increase.
6 billion corporate tax cut.
13 billion on prisons.
16 billion dollar untendered fighter jets.
1.3 billion dollar Gs photo-op and fake lake.
4.3 billion Ontario HST.
1.6 billion BC HST

Emily

They don't usually bother with national issues in a byelection though….it's more local stuff if they vote at all
Cats

Oooh numbers!

Without context !

Like ? Oh I don't know. The deepest recession since WW2 ?

Oh right. That happened. Well that explains a thing or two.

Obviously Cats.

billwjames

Which life are you on, Cats?
What do Harperites and Cats have in common?
They leave behind a litter box full of Sh!t for somebody else to clean up.

Emily

Exactly. Thank you.

Cats

Yeah!

Relatively low unemployment just plain sucks!

Get real Cats.

Mr Irrelevant

Byelections are fun. The same partisans who will look at any devastatingly bad poll result during a general election campaign and make excuses like "But the margin of error could mean their 10 point lead is only 2.5" or "Ipsos always tilts Conservative" or "yeah but it was done before Ignatieff spilled mustard on himself today" cannot fathom any circumstances by which their party could win a tossup byelection.

Emily

Byelections are irrelevant….big ballyhoo by the partisans, and a week later nobody remembers who won. LOL

Apparently there are 3 coming up…Cons expect 2 to go Liberal so they are praying for Vaughn

This activity should keep the political junkies happy for awhile.

Cats

Haha i'm going to include this in my big list of silly Emily quotes.

Which 2 do Cons expect to go Liberal ??

There are actually 5 by-elections coming up. 1 BQ seat, 1 Liberal seat, 1 NDP seat, and 2 CPC seats.

Everybody is expected to hold their seats expect the Liberals in Vaughan.

Which 2 non-Vaughan seats do the CPC expect the Liberals to win again ??

Bahaah! Ill-informed Emils strikes again. Cats finds correcting her to be a full time job!

Emily

Hey, it's the other half of the Meow Mix Team!

You and Dennis are a perfect match.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingn…

NorthernPoV

A certs argument perhaps? (yer both right?)
so this quote
"A Conservative source, who says the byelections will be formally announced on Sunday, tells The Canadian Press the Tories expect the Liberals to take at least two seats."
makes no sense when you read the rest of the article – these were/are NDP & Con seats (one of each) so the above quote is likely setting up post election spin that it will be a poor result for Iggy to lose seats he was "expected to win" nudge nudge

Emily

Part of it…this from a few days ago
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/vaughan-10-1…

Jan

Oh God, the article says in Winnipeg North the Cons are running a '"strong candidate" – quotation marks used by the Hill Times, not me. Let's hope Dennis doesn't notice it.

Lee Barol

Y'all really have to STOP refuting their spin. Every hat tip to BS reinforces THEIR dialog. Have the courage to create a commentary — one that mirrors the REAL world we all live in now. When Baird raises his voice in QP, someone ought to have the courage to say " STFU, @ss-hole! " People who speak for pickpockets ought not to make the rules.

Matthew

"STFU, @ss-hole!"

Well, I'm glad to hear you're all for raising the level of debate during Question Period.

"Y'all really have to STOP refuting their spin"

Yes, yes, by all means, let's have less dialogue. I've always dreamed of a society where everyone shouts at the top of their lungs without listening to and engaging with each other. You are a true idealist, sir.

chet

Oh, and one more thing. The "progressive left" ground rule on by elections is thus:

if a conservative is poised to win, it's a distinctly local issue.

if a liberal is poised to win, it's a scathing indictment on the Harper government.