Beyond The Commons

 Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

The prime-ministers-in-waiting club

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, November 5, 2010 11:38am - 0 Comments

Despite theorizing to the contrary, Jim Prentice does not presently sound like someone much interested in making a triumphant return to politics.

“I am closing the door on political life,” he said, stressing his support for Mr. Harper and the party. “I have completed that tour of duty.”

Despite theorizing to the contrary, mind you, we’ve so far not seen the triumphant returns of Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, John Manley or Bernard Lord.

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  • Tceh

    I expect you won't see a Conservative contender until after Harper blows (3rd? – I'm losing count here) attempt at achieving a majority.

    • YYZ

      4th. 3 under his belt already.

      Lost to Martin, beat Martin, beat Dion.

  • Emily

    Personally I'm glad that McKenna, Tobin, Manley and Lord haven't 'returned'. There was good reason for them not to be elected leaders in the first place.

    Harper is keeping all the divisions in the Con party together at the moment, although there are certainly signs they are going in different directions internally, but when Harper goes, the divisions are likely to break into the open. They are all just too different.

    If Cons ever want to have a majority, they'll have to become more moderate….more PC…again, and that's not likely to happen.

    For example, this morning I saw Prentice characterized as a 'rabid Marxist' on a rightwing site.

    • john g

      Interesting spin. Only because of Harper, who everyone claims is the most "divisive" PM we've ever had, that the party remains…united?

      • Emily

        He may be divisive to the country, but within caucus he cracks the whip while holding out the carrot of a 'majority'. This keeps people in line, but it can only last for so long.

      • RFinYVR

        Hey, come on! Tito united Yugoslavia until he kicked the bucket.

        • Emily

          Heh….good example.

      • bennji1977

        People were also, rightfully, worried of the power vacuum that would occur when the US ousted Saddam in Iraq.

        I am not comparing Harper to Saddam, but, you can see that it is not always for the best reasons that groups remain "united"

      • JoeC

        I think that winning is what's kept them united more than Harper. However, the fact that he hasn't been able to get a majority is starting to wear on some people. Once they lose, or if they lose a significant number of seats in the next election, watch the knives come out, and the party potentially break apart.

  • Observer

    Whoever is next had better be as tough and as respected in caucus as Harper. The religious fundamentalists must be held in check or the entire party will fall apart into two factions – true conservatives and Canada's version of the Tea Party. That will result in only one thing – Liberal government whether Canadians want it or not.

    • Reverend_Blair

      I think it would be more divided than that. You'll have the theo-cons, the fiscal conservatives, and the Tea Party faction with cross-over among all three groups. Within the fiscal conservatives you'll also have a split between paleo-cons and progressive conservatives. Then there'll be the traditional divisions between east and west and Quebec and the ROC. Again, there's a lot of cross-over between those groups with most members belonging to more than just one group.

      Harper has managed to keep it all together and managed to keep MPs away from the microphones, but in the event of a leadership race it's going to all come to the surface. Since it's been kept in a pressure cooker of non-speech since Harper "united" the right, I expect the lid will blow off and things will get interesting. I'm hoping it will be like watching a gang fight between rabid clowns and distemperate badgers.

      • Observer

        You're right, Rev. There will be a whole pile of factions and one heckuva war when it breaks loose. It'll be fun! Can't wait – there's nothing better than watching politicians in an all-out barroom brawl.

  • Anon 001

    These people don't make returns because the money and perks in their current jobs are too much to leave behind.

    Jean Chretien did return to politics from a private law firm, Mulroney from Iron Ore, Turner from … somewhere. So it can be done.

    • sourstud

      Ya, it can be done. But really, why would you leave a good paying job with security in the private sector to serve in our current parliament? Pay-cut, you're job is essentially on the line every single day, and the public basically thinks you're a clown for participating in the shenanigans we call question period.

      Politics is no place for serious people to be working.

      • Thwim

        And yet, sadly, it's the place where the serious people are most needed.

  • brooster2

    Prentice won't be back…it's obvious he was "just visiting".

    • fraserjharris

      For a decade

  • Bryan

    The press always goes gaga for these bland centre-right politicians who are cozy with the private sector and economically conservative without being radical, populist, or Reform-like in any way, but they never live up to the hype, since there's not actually much of appetite among the broader politician for this type of character. See also the many flops of John Tory. John Turner, too, back in the day.

    (Tobin doesn't really fit into this category, but McKenna, Manley & Lord certainly do.)

    • Bryan

      "much of an appetite", of course.

    • Emily

      Bland centre-right politicians like Bill Davis and Brian Mulroney?

      PCs ruled Ontario for 30 years, Mulroney had back-to-back majorities.

      Yes, it sells. Extremism does not.

    • Inkless

      There's a first time for everything: Bryan makes an excellent point.

  • Orson Bean

    I have a lot of problems with Warren Kinsella, but there actually is, to be fair, a good discussion of this Prentice matter on his website today. It's pointed out there that Jason Kenney would probably be the strongest leadership contender if a race were held today — but note that that's in terms of internal CPC support. One of the big flaws in party politics, both here and in the US, is the fact that the leadership candidate with the best internal connections and power base is best able to win the leadership, but that often has little to do with electability. Just using the US as an example, if leadership contests were won on electability, the Democrats would have elected Ted Kennedy leader in 1980, and would definitely NOT have nominated Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis, never mind Al Gore and John Kerry. In Canada, we had Joe Clark in 1976, Dion recently, and the NDP's disastrous choice of Audrey McLaughlin, etc.

    • Blue

      Good points Bean—Why would folks get off their duff and get out and vote for Rob Ford but not John Tory 4 years ago ?
      Because they knew that Ford would actually do something to change how City Hall works and Tory would only talk about making changes.
      Same is true in national politics—-whoever the next leader of either of our two national Parties better make people want to get out and vote.

      ps.—I had to stop reading Kinsella; I was starting to like him.

      • Emily

        No, they just believed the fairy tale that one man with one vote can change city hall.

        • bennji1977

          What happened in Toronto with Ford, is exately what happened in Ottawa 4 years previous with the election of Larry O'Brien.

          After four years – the voters of Ottawa saw the errors of their ways. I am not saying that Watson will be any better, but it was realized that the hard talking "conservative" guy really didn't warrent all the initial hype.

          Like the knee jerk reaction of voters that brought Bob Rae to power in Ontario, I have no doubt that the citizens of Toronto will quickly pull an "ah crap, what did we do".

    • Anon 001

      The next Conservative leader is going to lose the next election. So, look for a place filler. Not much to choose from, but someone like a Strahl perhaps?

      • Reverend_Blair

        Deanie Del Mastro would be an excellent choice. ;-)

      • Reverend_Blair

        How 'bout Gary Goodyear? His bizarre and twisted misconceptions about evolution would make him an excellent leader. I mean, how many science ministers would first insist that asking them about evolution was a religious matter, and then "prove" their belief in evolution by giving an explanation that makes the Flintstones look like hard science?

        Definite leadership material there.

    • hosertohoosier

      The nature of US and Canadian primaries are actually very different. The selectorate of candidates in the US are ordinary party supporters, whereas in Canada it is primarily made up of insiders (very few people are party members, and even they don't directly vote, rather, they elect insider delegates who do). Insiders actually do tend to go for electable candidates for the simple reason that winning keeps the gravy train flowing. In contrast, ordinary party supporters tend to have narrow ideological goals.

  • Olivier

    I don't think Harper's position is in very much danger.

    Sure he's consitently failed at getting a majority, but I wouldn't put all the blame on him for that. It seems the lines have been drawn and a lot of people just wnon't cross them no matter what.

    The CPC is on an up swing at the moment (I'm still not sure how though) so this might be it.

  • Edwin

    Danny Williams would make a real leader. Leadership is lacking in Canada at the moment and has been lacking for the past five years. We need a leader not a corpocracy sell out.

    • hosertohoosier

      A guy like Danny Williams can only survive in a small province where people have relatively homogenous interests. A belligerent blowhard like Danny can bring home the bacon in Newfoundland, but would make a terrible Prime Minister.

      • Keith in Brampton

        Agreed. As an ex-pat NLer myself, I'd be proud to one day see a PM from the Rock. But Danny is not the boy. Danny shares many of Harper's worst traits, then throws in a few of his own. The one thing he has over Harper is integrity. But he is often a stubborn, loud-mouthed bully with a big chip on his shoulder where Quebec is concerned; in the end, he would likely do more to divide than unite the provinces.

        Danny is the best premier NL has had … well, perhaps EVER – but I don't think he's suited for the national or international stage.

        • Orson Bean

          John Crosbie would have been an awesome PM from the Rock, if only for the quotability/entertainment value. And he wasn't personality disordered like Danny Williams is. The big knock against Crosbie at the time he ran for the Tory leadership (understandably) was that he couldn't speak French.

  • DBM

    The others mentioned all left the door open a crack. Some of them even wrote a book describing that crack.

    It's likely because Prentice is trying to shut the door so tightly that he is the most likely to be pulled back through it.

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