Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Let us now derive great meaning from small, isolated events

by Aaron Wherry on Monday, November 29, 2010 11:05am - 50 Comments

Like we did a year ago, we’ll go “live” for by-election coverage this evening.

In the meantime, Pundits Guide has all the relevant data, while the Globe has the odds and 308 has projections. Apathy is Boring has a guide for voters.

Tags: by-election, Dauphin, Vaughan, Winnipeg North

More by Aaron Wherry

WDM

As I noted on the Twittermachine on the weekend. Remember by-election voters. It's not a local campaign, it's a national referendum on whoever winds up losing. Vote accordingly.
Blue

Like most people I haven`t paid much attention to the by-election campaigns happening.
However after readind the above headline, I guess I can assume that the talking points coming out of the LPC head office is that just because the Conservatives may win all 3 by-elections, we should not " derive great meaning from small isolated events " .

Patchouli

Those of us who live in Riderville are saying the same kind of thing today.
Mike T.

The green party "may" win all three. The CPC is pretty much assured of two, but onlyt wo.

Blue

If the CPC win the Winnipeg by-election then it will be because of a combination of law-and-order issues, the gun registry, and the NDP not getting the vote out.

gottabesaid

Of course the LPC is going to downplay the significance if they lose all three, though particularly in Vaughan. There is some significance there: Iggy just got through touring the country in the hopes of drumming up some goodwill. If it accomplished its goal, it would have made some electoral headway, one would think. Instead, they're (at best) treading water. At the same time, most national polls show a deadlock. Harper isn't in majority territory. I don't think Vaughan going to the Tories is a sign that there's a Conservative groundswell about to surge. I could be wrong… I guess we'll see come general election day.

So, we should derive meaning from the results… but I don't know about 'great' meaning.

Mike T.

If it wasn't Fantino, the Vaughan election could be very indicative of 905 voting intention. Because it IS Fantino, it doesn't have a predicative value.

Crit_Reasoning

So, in other words:

How much significance should be attached to a Conservative win in Vaughan?
None whatsoever, because it's Fantino!

How much significance should be attached to a Liberal win in Vaughan?
Lots of significance, because Fantino lost!

Mike T.

no.
LdKitchenersOwn

That's clearly not what Mike said. I don't think he's wrong either that the predictive value of a by-election (low in the best of circumstances) is pretty much non existent when the race includes a "star candidate". I tend to agree with Mike in that I don't think the Vaughn election has much larger meaning either way because of the Fantino factor. The Liberals have held the riding long enough that a Liberal win shouldn't be a shock, but Fantino's a big enough name that a Tory win shouldn't be surprising either.

I happen to agree with a lot of posters who seem to also believe that a Fantino win could be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals if he ever starts speaking in public again.
Crit_Reasoning

I happen to agree with a lot of posters who seem to also believe that a Fantino win could be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals if he ever starts speaking in public again.

I don't agree that Fantino's win will be a blessing in disguise for the Liberals, but if so it would be particularly ironic given that the Liberals initially tried to recruit Fantino to run as their own "star candidate", and were turned down.

Blue

If it wasn`t for the fact that voters perceive Harper as a better leader that Ignatieff then the Vaughn election could be very indicative of the next general election.

gottabesaid

Again, popular opinion polls, for what they're worth, don't bear that out. They're showing (if an election were held today), the House of Commons would look a helluva lot like the one we have now. It's obviously good news for the Tories, and bad news for the Liberals, if Fantino wins. Is it proof a Tory majority is around the corner? I don't think so. And, really, that's the question that matters.
MostlyCivil

"Is it proof a Tory majority is around the corner? '

Well, if they can line up enough "star" candidates…Don Cherry, Danny Williams, Rex Murphy, Mr. Dressup, Casey, Finnegan, the Friendly Giant, that guy from the "I am Canadian" commercial, Sandy McTire , William Shatner, Leonard Nimoy (he's alreayd on the $5 bill) and anybody else not already in the senate.
Hedges

Over the past 20 or so elections, how strong is the correlation between the results from the riding of Vaughn and the overall national results?

Mandatory Jedi

No matter how much you try and down play the bi-elections, a loss in Vaughan for the Liberals is going to sting isn’t it?

Now, back to the latest scandal….wait….what is it this week? I’m guessing it’s about time for another census blog.

[R2 is trying to open the door as Storm Troopers shoot at them; he beeps]
C-3PO: No! We're not interested in the hyperdrive on the Millenium Falcon, it's fixed!
[R2 beeps again]
C-3PO: Just open the door, you stupid lug!
[he opens the door]
C-3PO: I never doubted him for a second! Wonderful!

Mike T.

If they lost to a regualar Joe Schmo candidate it might look bad for the Liberals. Against Fantino it's not a such big deal beyond going down one seat.

Mandatory Jedi

You may have a point, but if this were reversed and it was the Conservatives losing a long held seat in suburban Calgary do you really think Wherry wouldn't have had several dozen blogs already?

Just saying

http://intensedebate.com/people/Ottawa_Centrist Ottawa_Centrist

By-elections are even less representative of the political sentiments of the country than first past the post general elections.

As for Fantino, I see it as a lose-lose. If he loses the by-election, pie on the face of the Conservatives for a week. If he wins, the issues around Caledonia aren't going away and I am not convinced the Conservatives can keep him muzzled post-election.

Patchouli

Agreed, absolutely.
LdKitchenersOwn

That's an interesting point. Fantino's been pretty much the invisible man all campaign long, no doubt deliberately so. One wonders if he'll still be considered an asset when he removes the cloak of invisibility and starts talking in public.

hollinm

First of all if a candidate is running he should be part of the process and debate the other candidates who he is trying to defeat.
Having said that the strategy being imposed is not new. This has happened since the Conservatives came to power and it has not apparently hurt them. Otherwise they would change the strategy.
How many times do we see stories in the media about the Conservatives running a peek a boo campaign? This is not a national election. It is a by election in one riding. The media wants to make it a national campaign but it ain't. The people of Vaughan will decide who they want to represent them. Not the national media. If the "peek a boo" campaign is being reported in the local media the people of Vaughan and only the people of Vaughan will decide who the winner will be.

LdKitchenersOwn

Oh, I hasten to add that I realize that this is hardly a new tactic, nor even an illegitimate one really (though as you say, if you're going to run, you ought to debate). My point was more that sometimes a policy of keeping the candidate quiet backfires when the candidate wins, and then starts talking again. This could go fine for the Tories, but I also think they could win this riding today, and then lose three more in the general election owing to stupid things that Fantino says once he's elected.

hollinm

I see you give Fantino little credit for having any brain power whatsoever. Do you not think because he is starting a new career that he may simply sit back and learn? That would be a wise move in my opinion. I seriously doubt he will be given a cabinet post after being elected. Maybe after the next general election but not now.
TJCook

Speaking as one who's watched Fantino's career for nearly 17 years now, I think you're both giving the man credit for more intelligence than he deserves.

What I've seen has been a reactionary, authoritarian bully who's just savvy enough to continue climbing the career ladder by appealing to either the id or the electoral interests of his superiors. Brain power? Not so much. Accountability? Well, let's just say that Stephen Harper would be very comfortable with Fantino's idea of accountability.
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Gotta love how the smear-mongers come out in full force in threads like this. Some of you don't seem to have any shame or discretion. So much for civility and tolerance.
TJCook

You should educate yourself about Fantino's career before preaching to me about civility.

Do you even know what I'm talking about?
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

No, I don't know what you're talking about. I don't know where you get your personal smears. Sorry.
TJCook

Ah, blessed ignorance.

Question: how do you know it's a "smear" if you don't know what I'm talking about?
LdKitchenersOwn

Well, you did imply that Fantino treats "accountability" the same way that Harper treats accountability. If that's not a smear against Fantino then I don't know what is!
http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

I read your hateful post about the man. God.
TJCook

You were funnier in Napolean Dynamite.

gottabesaid

"I am not convinced the Conservatives can keep him muzzled post-election."

I dunno… If there has been a defining characteristic of this government, it's keeping their MPs on message. And if Caledonia was going to be a thorn in the side of the Conservatives, Fantino would lose Vaughan (and it doesn't look like he's going to lose).

Emily

All the same remarks as there were in the last round of byelections….that no one remembers now.

Mandatory Jedi

HA!

Your posts are comedy gold…I can't compete.

[C-3PO is tangled up in wires after a run-in with tie fighters]
C-3PO: Help! I think I'm melting! This is all your fault!
[R2-D2 makes a series of beeps that sound like chuckling]

MostlyCivil

Who knew a cat could be a jedi?

PeterboroDave

NO! Don't say that! CATS is far more clever than this ID-10-T.

SHOUT OUT TO CATS!

PeterboroDave

Jeez, all I have to do is type "CATS" and I'm at minus 7.

Remarkable.

LdKitchenersOwn

Yeah, this is actually a case, imho, of Emily making perfect sense. This is EXACTLY the same conversation that happens with EVERY by-election, and no one ends up remembering any of them a week later.

PolJunkie

If there was any doubt in my mind about Ignatieff's judgement, the fact that he actually pursued Fantino seals the deal for me. That Harper would pursue this guy makes perfect sense. Two peas in a pod, those two. But for Ignatieff to go after him despite the man's actions on the Caledonia file (and God knows what else) is outrageous.

The thought of Fantino getting a ministerial position has me breaking out in hives.

tobyornotoby

On the bright side he's no longer running a large police force.

LdKitchenersOwn

It's true. He can arguably do less damage to the country as a cabinet minister in the Harper government.

hollinm

Those hives will be awfully itchy because he will get a cabinet post after the next federal election and the Conservatives win. That will give him time to learn the ropes etc.
PeterboroDave

10 bucks says he completely loses it at his first press conference. He will have 1/10th the authority he had as a top cop and completely answerable to both the public and Parliament (stop the snickering, the bunch of you). Add the fact that he's 70 years old, what good is being an authoritarian without authority? I'm very much looking forward to Fantino being under the microscope- he's is gonna squirm!

brooster2

"…answerable to both the public and Parliament"?

More like, answerable to the unelected cabal in the PMO, like everyone else in the CPC caucus. It'll be interesting to see how long Fantino tolerates that.

PeterboroDave

A ha! I KNEW it was YOU who was snickering at my line……

hosertohoosier

My preferred party will never win in any of these ridings. The mere fact that the candidate of my preferred party was not shot on sight by potential voters would be the greatest electoral triumph in Canadian history.

By-elections matter a great deal. They are near-perfect indicators of how a real election would play out, unless my preferred party does poorly. In that case I would point out that turnout in by-elections is usually low, that the failed city councillor run by the other guys was a star candidate, that voters were marking their ballots on local issues, and that the only poll that matters is on election day.
LdKitchenersOwn

I guess.

I just really think that Fantino's a big enough name that losing to him, even in Vaughn, shouldn't be seen as that big of a deal. I actually think that Fantino losing would be a (slightly) bigger deal for the Tories than his winning would be for the Liberals, but perhaps that's not a totally objective opinion.