Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

Stalemate

by Paul Wells on Monday, December 20, 2010 12:06pm - 86 Comments

A year’s polling shows an extraordinarily stable electorate. The Conservatives seem better positioned now than in January, especially because the Liberals have lost ground in places where they would rather not lose (Ontario, Quebec) and gained in places where gains don’t translate into many seats (the Atlantic provinces) or any (Alberta). Remember the orange line the next time Brian Topp writes 1,200 words about his leader’s momentum. Stephen Harper cannot win a majority, unless he gains as much during the 2011 (or 2012) writ period as he did in 2004, 2006 and 2008. So maybe he can win a majority.

Anyway, speculating too much about the causes and potential outcomes of these nearly-straight lines misses the reality that the lines are nearly straight. Michael Ignatieff went on a bus tour and it didn’t really change his standing. (Bus tour was probably still worth doing; leader and staff have far more experience in campaign-like environments now.) How many columns were written about the tactical (as opposed to the public-policy) folly of Harper’s long-form census fight? It is hard to spot the folly in the year’s lines. Olympic bump for the government? Nope. Erosion of public trust caused by prorogation? Nope.

More and more Liberals think they will never get a perfect moment, so they might as well have an election sooner rather than later. Maybe in 10 weeks. But the more lucid Liberals remember they can’t “pull the trigger” on an election, because they need Layton, whose bravado typically lasts until the minute it might actually mean an election.

I think an election in 2012 is as likely as one this spring, maybe more. Meanwhile the trench warfare continues. Somebody could do something bold, but apparently that’s out of fashion.

More by Paul Wells

http://dougsamu.wordpress.com dougrogers

2012? Maybe the Aztecs were right.

T. Quetzalcoatl

Mayas.

http://dougsamu.wordpress.com dougrogers

Hey :-) don't get all partisan on me now…

Claudia Lemire

Hahaha, Mayans, Doug, Mayans…

SocialLiberal

I keep absentmindedly thinking about that on a range of 2012 political events and think to myself: "Am I high?"

Kam

Sarah Palin vs. Hilary Clinton 2012 will be fun. But probably also an omen that the end is nigh….

Brammer

Let's speculate – what kind of events could break the stalemate?

1) One party makes a huge error.

2) Some natural disaster occurs that mobilizes more votes to one party or the other.

3) There is a deliberate global upheaval of the "shock doctrine" variety (eg, US invades Iran).

4) A party grows impatient with it's leader.

5) Parties merge (and it doesn't necessarily have to be the obvious ones).

Andre1958

Right now, I think your number 4 is highly probable. But even with that, the 2 smaller opposition parties would have to play too.
Reverend_Blair

And for one more speculation:

6) The sudden illness/death of one of the leaders. Let's face it, all four are middle-aged men and middle-aged men sometimes just die. All four parties are crass enough to try to take advantage of such a situation if they think they can get away with it.

Andre1958

Good point. And I would add that if one of them would kick the bucket (we do not wish that of course, just speculation) what kind of shape would the party be and is there anyone to carry on?

Reverend_Blair

Yeah, I really don't see anybody waiting in the wings to take over any of the parties. It isn't like they'd have time to have a real leadership race in those circumstances either.

I think the Conservatives would collapse in a civil war with more facets than could be described by physics.
The Liberals would likely just draft Trudeau at this point, and I don't think he's anywhere close to ready.
Dewar might be able to step up in the NDP, but that would hurt them outside Ontario, especially if was seen as a coronation.
I have no idea what would happen with the Bloc, but I get the definite feeling that they don't either.

http://myblahg.com Robert McClelland

I think an election in 2012 is as likely as one this spring, maybe more.

We'll have an election when the pundits agree that Canadians want an election.

Inkless

2013?
Reverend_Blair

I think we should have an election every six months. It would end the endless speculation on when the next election is going to be and pour millions into the economy.

oppoguy

"Remember the orange line the next time Brian Topp writes 1,200 words about his leader’s momentum."

Mr. Topp readily recognizes that Layton is polling much higher than his party (just as the inverse is true of Ignatieff). Read his last 1,200 words for the proof. This reserve of public admiration for Mr Layton (the only leader whose top four qualities are ALL positive) remains largely untapped and could be the NDP's game changer in the next election.

Harper and Ignatieff wish they were as lucky.

non-partisan

Liking someone and hiring them to work for you are two very different things. Its easy to like Layton ’cause he’s never going to govern anything – he’d be more likely to win and more influential running for Toronto City Council.

Its a similar reason that voters who hated, Joe Clark, Preston Manning, Jean Chretien (or most retired politicians) when they held office, will now give them grudging or even outright praise, because those voters know they never have to live with them as office holders again.

oppoguy

And then there's Tommy Douglas, Robert Stanfield and Ed Broadbent. Widely liked leaders who were denied their chance. Canadians still regret having been out-foxed by Trudeau and Mulroney and continue to cannonize the aforementioned leaders.

On one hand, neither Ignatieff or Harper have displayed the appeal or coalition-building skill of Trudeau or Mulroney. And on the other, it sometimes does happen, that we be persuaded to elect the guy we like and trust rather than the "grudging choice". Advantage: Layton.
SocialLiberal

I doubt people hate retired leaders because they're gone. It's because of what they did/what happened while they were in power!

It's easy to love someone who talks your idea and talks your agenda. It's even easier if they've never have to do the hard work.

Not that I don't like Layton! I'm a leftie. But he rarely has to organize the parliament to work in his favor. I wonder how effective he would be as a leader in a minority? I dislike Harper but I view him as a cunning politician. How far could Layton push an agenda without total parliamentary revolt?

I guess it remains to be seen the actions or even the climate in which such an event would take place.

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

Harper and Ignatieff wish they were as lucky.

Somehow I doubt that. Somehow I think Harper and Iggy have no desire to be an also-ran. Maybe that's just me.
madeyoulook

Harper and Ignatieff wish they were as lucky.

I am pretty sure neither of them wish to lead the NDP. Just a guess, mind you.
r sampling

game changer? what one more seat ,this country will never support the ndp to any large degree

Stewart_Smith

It seems like the majority of Canadian elections have been won or lost during the election. Why do pundits keep insisting that political leaders need to take action between elections?

http://secondthots.blogspot.com Dennis_F

I agree. Canadian political pundits don't seem to watch a lot of hockey, since they tend to think that how you do during the regular season is what matters most.

As far as Liberals are concerned, I think they should be very concerned that yet another one of their leaders is counting on an election for Canadians to "get to know" them. Indeed, just as happened with Dion, Canadians might well like Liberals less once they get an even closer look at whose running their show. It's an awfully precarious strategy upon which to carry one's electoral hopes. Ideally, you should be lowering people's expectations, not the other way around.
non-partisan

Really? Other than Harper's minority in 2006, I can't think of an election, since at least 1980, where the result was drastically different (ie. party forming government), from what was expected pre-election.

Healthcare Insider

lWhat about the election when Kim Campbell ran to hold onto her status as prime minister and the Conservatives went from a ruling majority to only holding 3 seats? Surely that was an unexpected result.

Crit_Reasoning

Stephen Harper cannot win a majority, unless he gains as much during the 2011 (or 2012) writ period as he did in 2004, 2006 and 2008. So maybe he can win a majority.

Poll standings on August 27, 2008 (the day that Harper asked Governor General Michaëlle Jean to cancel her trip to the Paralympic Games in Beijing, adding fuel to speculation that the Prime Minister would seek a dissolution.)

Nanos: Con-33% Lib-35%
Ipsos Reid: Con-33% Lib-31%
Harris-Decima: Con-33% Lib-34%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_t…

On September 7, 2008, Harper asked the Governor General to call a federal election on October 14, 2008. Here are the poll standings on September 11, 2008:

Nanos: Con-38% Lib-31%
Ipsos Reid: Con-38% Lib-29%
Harris-Decima: Con-41% Lib-26%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_t…

As Wells points out, Harper always gets a boost in the writ period, which is why the pre-writ polls are never a good indication of election performance.

Inkless

This is the kind of thing that reliably gets George Will to say, "Such things are true until they stop being true." The next election could well have a different dynamic. But the precedent is pretty robust. On one hand, on the other….

http://www.jesserosenberg.com Jesse_Rosenberg

What makes me sad and scared for our future is that his "gains" in 2008 consisted of "losing less votes than he drove away from everyone else".

http://twitter.com/jonatwitan @jonatwitan

Really? That makes you "sad and scared"? Please, elaborate.

http://www.jesserosenberg.com Jesse_Rosenberg

I think we can actually all agree that it's sad that his success was due to depressing turnout among other parties, rather than wining votes for himself, and I think it's scary that it works.

Is that really something where, if the parties were reversed, y'all can't recognize that you'd be upset? If in the next election Ignatieff loses votes, but Harper loses so many more that we get a Liberal government?

Government should be about uniting Canadians, not getting them to stay home less for you than the other guy.
chet

It's not sad, nor scary.

The natural progression of voters doesn't necessarily follow a straight jump, particularily when we're talking about Canadians who've voted for the Liberal party for generations. I know some folks who voted Liberal just as their father did. It was the natural order of things. They sat the last one out, not ready to make the full jump. This time around they will make that jump to the CPC.

What's really "sad and scary" is there was a generation of voters who voted Liberal for no other reason than "that's how our family votes."

But I do appreciate the phenomenon whereby Liberals, knowing they have no forseeable prospect of winning, attempt to seek psychological refuge/comfort in the belief that a Conservative win was illigitimate for this reason or that.

Funny, we didn't see a lot of hand wringing when Chretien, not only held the government with only around a 40% vote total, but had a majority lock for years with such "un unifying" amounts.
cooper

Why the jump to the cpc, quite the assumption. I think you will see an energized Liberal Party in the husting of the next election.. A leader who is not afraid to answer questions, refrains from using cheat sheets, the requested format; a party that represents the values and aspirations of most Canadians, a party that values education health care and child care over prisons for imaginary prisoners and fighter jets (at 16 billion dollars) for imaginary enemies, (maybe Russia or United States), a party that believes in achieving consensus rather than dissention, both internationally and domestically and a party that will if not make Canadians proud once more at least not make them feel ashamed.
http://www.jesserosenberg.com Jesse_Rosenberg

Chet.

If your theory is correct, and those voters turn up in an increased raw CPC vote in the next election, then I would withdraw my statement.

I concur that people shouldn't vote Liberal just because "they always have", but I'm pretty sure that happens in other families, too.

I didn't say it was illegitimate; you made that part up (in my particular case).

I don't think our first past the post system adequately deals with the issue you raise, which was that Chretien Liberals were able to win many more seats that vote share. However, that's the system we have, though it's not the one I prefer. Unfortunately, that has no relation to my concern that the Harper Cons are driving away opponent votes, rather than winning votes for themselves.

Reverend_Blair

That's why everybody should own a tractor, Inkless. The one thing that always remains true is that things become more clear when you sit in a tractor seat. One might still be wrong…I often am…but things are more clear. I recommend a small Kubota or John Deere (see, I'm non-partisan ;-) ) for you Inkless. Something with a front end loader and a cup holder. No cab though.

http://www.twitter.com/neiljedmondson Neil Edmondson

All I really need to know about Canadian politics I learned from Rob Ford. If Layton or Ignatieff were to walk into a Sikh temple or a Mosque or a Tamil community centre and try to tell them that gender is a social construct or that trans rights are human rights or that the government needs to spend more cash on new social programs they'd falcon punch him and throw him out on his ass.

The Liberal party and NDP have crossed the line where the ultraconservative immigrant community can no longer turn a blind eye to their radical social policy and they are going to move to where they belonged in the first place: the Conservative Party of Canada.

http://myblahg.com Robert McClelland

Snort. I love how clownservatives demand that immigrants adopt Canadians values except when those values conflict with archaic conservative dogma.

s_c_f

I love it when leftists say that leftist values are Canadian values and that the values of the Conservative party supported by a third of the population are archaic dogma.

LdKitchenersOwn

I love the mindless back and forth of ALL OF IT!!!

http://twitter.com/jonatwitan @jonatwitan

I LOVE LAMP!

NorthernPoV

OK – in response to your stated love of these statements:
Leftist values are Canadian values. The values of the Conservative party archaic dogma.!
there, don't you fell better now?

From the abolition of slavery, to women\s suffrage and yes on to gay rights … the left always leads and the archaic right always loses in the end.
;-)

AT1

Really PoV or are you just being facetious?
Which Canadian leader spearheaded the fight by western democracies against Apartheid?
Thwim

Well.. it certainly wasn't the one calling Nelson Mandela a terrorist. And given how the CPC worked to protect Rob Anders during the riding nominations, it leads one to think the CPC executive agrees with him.
http://twitter.com/jonatwitan @jonatwitan

Tired generalizations and tired oversimplifications. To borrow a line from a poster above, it is the fact that people actually think in such simplistic dichotomies that makes me "sad and scared for our future".
xiv

Free trade, privatization of crown corporations, and the occasional purchase of equipment for the military that isn't from the 1950s. Sometimes the right wins.
NorthernPoV

"Free trade" and "globalization" are marketing terms used to disguise their regressive nature – and the advent of these terms in no way marks the beginning of robust trade between nations.
As to privatization of crown corporations, how is that progress? And the military was doing fine until they put a munitions lobbyist in as defense minister. (lack of equipment was/is just spin)
any more canards you'd like shot down?
BeenThereKnowBetter

Really NorthernPoV, The lack of equipment was just a spin, were you deployed in 2002 to a war where you had to borrow vehicles, bum rides on planes to have your equipment and troops delivered, how about drive around in sheet metal vehicles with no hope of survival if you hit a mine or a IED. Where were you when it took four days to get parts for a Herc when you had troops desperately waiting for supplies to help save lives in East Timor. No equipment shortage there buddy. I wonder have you walked in a soldiers shoes, well I have my friend, and I did for 25 + years, you can blame who you want, I know who I blame but there was a huge rusting out of the Forces, and a huge equipment shortage.
Aberhart

Oh, and how is that global financial service economy doing anyway?
BeenThereKnowBetter

P.S. Northern POV, Slavery was abolished in the US by Pres A. Lincoln, A Republican, In the British Commonwealth by the Whig Party which eventually merged with the Tory Party, oh yea,, and Women Suffrage in 1918 in Canada, History tells us that was PM R. Borden, if memory serves he was a conservative also, want to correct your statement.
chet

And the two leading iconic figures in the Democratic party for the last half century were a KKK grand dragon, and womanizing mysogenist pig, respectively (Robert Byrd and Teddy Kennedy)….

the biggist lie of political lies was the Democratic party whitewashing history in order to carry the mantle of equality and rights. That the media let them do it, is a whole other kettle of fish.
NorthernPoV

OK BTKB
I gave you a thumbs up on that one as I do appreciate a civil debate and you make good points in this post.

As far as the previous post military equipment thing goes, I am quoting a senior Canadian officer, circa 2007 springtime.

Lincoln`s newly formed Republican party has little in common with today`s cartoon version.
In all 3 cases (in this comment) they were moderate statesmen were reacting to the avalanche of social change pressure instigated by ….. the pesky progressives.
Alas one cannot favourably compare the current generation of Republicans and Cons to even the most recent past (Mulrooney and Bush senior still had some civic sense)

excuse me chet, trying to have an adult discussion here….
chet

Yes,

I appreciate bringing up such pesky facts has having a KKK Grand dragon, and Teddy Kennedy (the "lion of the Senate) a womanizing monster who let a woman drown a slow horrific death while she clawed for her life for over an hour while Teddy boy went home, showered up and gathered an alabi,

as party standard bearers for the Dems, is "incorrect" speak with the left, particularily when they drape themselves with the "progressive" label while tut-tutting conservatives as knuckle dragging goons.
BeenThereKnowBetter

Tks NortherPoV, however, quite the theory your pushing forward of how the progressive pushed the conservatives toward these actions, I could easily refute with a general statement as well, I believe that conservatives pushed other progressive programs forward when the left was in power. Tell me I am wrong, and I will tell you that you are wrong. Merry Xmas
http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/ CanadianSense

Liberals have a problem with historical events. It does not match their utopian ideology.

In the 1970's the democratic controlled south was in support of segregation.

The collapse of the Berlin Wall the left did not blame Socialism for the deaths of millions behind the Iron Curtain. They attacked capitalism.

[youtube 76frHHpoNFs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76frHHpoNFs youtube]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76frHHpoNFs

http://www.jesserosenberg.com Jesse_Rosenberg

A third! Wow! What are the odds that 1/3 of people could possibly be wrong about ANYTHING?

Plus, look at history. The course of humanity has always been backwards, not forwards.

madeyoulook

Plus, look at history. The course of humanity has always been backwards, not forwards.

Then maybe you should turn around and have a better look.
http://www.jesserosenberg.com Jesse_Rosenberg

I ws being sarcastic; I can't tell what you're trying to say.

Grace

From someone who works closely with the victims of domestic abuse among Afghan and other immigrant communities in the GTA I hope to God your words are not prophetic.
Tybalt

Hey look everyone! It's an Internet Tough Guy! You sure talk tough, Mr. Tough Guy.

madeyoulook

Michael Ignatieff went on a bus tour and it didn’t really change his standing.

Without a parallel control group, one could only argue that his bus tour coincided with his standing not changing. For who knows — maybe that magical tour that included a stop at Harper's Garage for repairs prevented the otherwise inevitable slide into oblivion!

Richard Nelson

I'll extend this point further. Without controls we don't know why these lines are flat. The long-form census and prorogation didn't hurt the Conservatives? But maybe without them the Conservatives start to float upwards, seen as a steady, steadfast pair of hands for the Canadian state. As madeyoulook says, maybe without the bus tour the Liberals drift downwards.

http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/ CanadianSense

The Conservative leaning voters is not looking for a leadership change. The Liberals can't say the same.

Costs at the fuel pump, grocery store are being felt. Concern for jobs, economy, retirement, pensions etc.

Left leaning Incumbents in power for several years have been hit. Western democracies are shifting right during these hard times and those governments are not increasing the welfare state. They are reducing spending.

BCVoiceOfReason

Bus tour was probably still worth doing; leader and staff have far more experience in campaign-like environments now.

There will be more reporters on a real campaign stop than there were people (babies included) at most of the Talking to Canadians Tour.

And they might not all be true die hard Liberal supporters.

Paul how many tour stops did you cover?

Reverend_Blair

"And they might not all be true die hard Liberal supporters. "

You mean like the way all of us lefties are always invited to Harper's campaign events?

chet

There are a variety of reasons why polls taken well before an election call are not a good indicator.

Macro political factors are a better guage and they all point to seat gains for Harper, particularily in the 905 ridings but also out East.

Of course, Harper only needs to pick up a few seats to gain a majority.

It's likely this next go around Harper will get that majority.
gar

Take a poll of the ridings the Conservatives now hold.they are solid Conservative.then take a poll of the ridings held by the opposition.all up for grabs.The voter is ready for a Harper majority and it will happen
Marcus

What do you think these polls do except enrage people? I wonder how many people have gone out and smashed their car into a pedestrian or something because their day started badly with a poll that shows their side losing. What the heck use is a poll? It gives you …a thing .. but I mean you don't need to have to "write" …just copoy and paste… what a stinking lice bin we live in where real journalists are submerged in the offal of the Pool and such stories. I could care less. I started this past fall NOT voting. I shall not vote again. It is a sad commentary, by me, alone, in my room, but it is MINE, it is MY commentary and you walking talking mouthing pestilences won;t make it disappear. I sm so glad you all like it so much. Like WInston said …."except for all the rest" or something. He never took apathy into account.
Or if he did, he didn;t mention it. The seeds of your own destrusction are in the belly of "democracy" and you can watch it work as the footloose use their boots for walking AWAY from the ballot box..away from the news media, away from the artificial cares and histrionics of the journalist trying to get readers. The smartest people have become the most purposefully ignorant. They live lives of peace.

Reverend_Blair

Er…perhaps we need some studies on this smashing into pedestrians thing. I keep hearing that drunk drivers cause 25% of crashes, and I don't doubt it, but it always leaves me wondering why the cops aren't doing something about that 75% who are sober.

It could be that political polls are causing them to crash. I think this merits further study.

Steve V

Rather than fixating on numbers which never change-using January to January is an arbitrary measure with no inherent value- it might be more instructive to look at softening or strengthening. You can argue the long form census didn't harm the government in the final analysis, based on the polls. However, when that issue was on the front burner, people did move, Harper lost a key demographic. The effects weren't lasting, but that issue put doubt in people's mind, it softened up some support, it made it easier to move later on, if events dictate. That's the value IMHO, not the useless chasing of statistical bumps, but issues that can be woven into compelling themes come an election.

Tybalt

Can I ask what you think the "key demographic" was? Unless it's college professors or economists, I don't know who it could be. And they don't vote Conservative.

Reverend_Blair

It was really university-educated voters. It's a demographic that's always been a little iffy for the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives anyway and Steve V likely has a point…they will move more easily in the future.

Emily

'None of the above' is what Canadians would vote for right now.

Unfortunately, we don't even get THAT much choice.
Trudeau lover

It's all rather funny when politically bias media types use polls to sell some kind of manipulative narrative. Wells pontificates about how American Iggo's magical bus tour was worth it, why ? Because it will help the "Liberals" in an election. Wells, like all "Liberals", Separatists, and NDPers believes that taking away the coercive nature of the long form census by "Harper" was "folly". Wells asserts that the historically common practice of prorogation has created "an erosion of public trust", apparently for the sole reason that it was done by "Harper", therefore stopping the Liberal/Separatist agenda that clearly Wells is in agreement with. Wells selling of an election for it's "exclusive" advantage to the "Liberals", complete with time frame, 10 weeks, is slightly mystifying along with the assertion that if Layton doesn't go along with the Liberal election agenda, and time table, it's because he's chicken. The desperation and bias displayed by Wells is a good indicator that the "Liberals" are about to force an election, why? Because as Wells said, "Liberals" will have an exclusive advantage, although I think this "exclusive advantage can only be seen exclusively by Liberal/Separatist coalition supporters and salesmen.

Inkless

Redding comprension is fundamentle.

Trudeau lover

Thanks dinkless… Eye sea yur poynt, and loock forwerd 2 mor hissy fyts.

Reverend_Blair

Yup, I'm going to drive my tractor.

NorthernPoV

funny, PW. I think you do a pretty good job of rising above your biases when writing.
That said, after reading your book (Heck I even paid for the hardcover – Wasn't it "Rightside Up" or something equally witty) and the stuff you post here and in the Magazine, I coulda sworn you were quite a Conservative at heart. (in the general mold of your editor).
As a hopelessly left-wing Canadian, I know some of your positions have made me mad, but that 's fair game and you usually have pretty good arguments. (All the more annoying.) But pegging you on the right is a gut feel not really backed up by anything empirical as you might gleefully slag either side when deserving.
I always get a kick out of the kool-aid crowd and their MSM-left-wing bias accusations in a media-world that is mostly owned and heavily dominated by the corporate right wing. It is even funnier when this canard lands at your door.

NiceGuy

Hang on…I thought that fighter jets, cops beating on hippies (my personal favourite), building more prisons, and trashing the long form census would be the end of Mr. Harper?? Oh wait, I guess Canadians actually kind of like those things…

Stan L

Personally, I think this will all change when Canadians get smart, stop letting pundits (or the polls) do their thinking for them, stop thinking that there is a messiah with the charisma of Kennedy and the wisom of Soloman coming to save us and staert realizing that the role of PM is not a beauty pagent or a popularity contest…..

derek

Then the Liberals will nominate Justin Trudeau

NorthernPoV

I agree with Stan L.
Political polling and the surrounding info-entertainment clusterf**k is killing representative democracy.
Our greatest PM – Lester B Pearson would have been road kill in the modern media environment.
Mandatory Jedi

It is a dark time for the Rebellion. Although the Death Star has been destroyed, Imperial troops have driven the Rebel forces from their hidden base and pursued them across the galaxy.

Evading the dreaded Imperial Starfleet, a group of freedom fighters led by Luke Skywalker has established a new secret base on the remote ice world of Hoth.

The evil lord Darth Vader, obsessed with finding young Skywalker, has dispatched thousands of remote probes into the far reaches of space….
http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/ CanadianSense

Are the Greens at 10%? If not where are those extra voters hiding? In 2008 every Pollster under-polled the CPC.

2008 General Election Results by Pollster http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_mlyPv7FzInk/S46oIrgGOXI…

Campaigns matter. Which party has lost the most in 2010 vs 2009 via fundraising? Momentum with donations? Which party was offering steaks and tickets to help on by elections?
Joe in Ottawa

May the Pissing Contest continue on HA HA HA Merry Christmas!!!!!
EMILE

We need to wait for Justin to come along
http://www.linkedin.com/companies/merger-law-associates-ltd. Julius C.

Until the Liberals change their leadership I don't see any changes on the political horizon…
http://www.sherwoodpainting.com Mike

The tories won't win a majority but until the liberals change their leadership approach they will never form government themselves.