Inkless Wells

Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW

Niall Ferguson, slow learner

by Paul Wells on Sunday, March 13, 2011 11:21pm - 30 Comments

Tina Brown’s redesigned Newsweek is a mixed bag, but more promising on the whole than the glum tract that had been appearing under that title. One of her  coups is the addition of historian Niall Ferguson as a columnist. Ferguson writes bestselling books and is a hot ticket on the speaker circuit, but I’m starting to worry he’s not quite cut out for shorter formats.

Ferguson’s latest is typically eye-catching, from its title — “How to Get Gaddafi” — to the author’s (already familiar) contempt for the “trendy and ignorant” Obama administration. “We must hope that someone gives President Obama a history lesson,” Ferguson writes mournfully, “before thousands of Libyans share [the] fate” of Iraq’s doomed Marsh Arabs.

And here comes Niall Ferguson now with a history lesson. As if on cue!

“Yet it would also be an erroneous conclusion that the only form of assistance America can give to good revolutions is military. A no-fly zone was not, after all, what helped the Central and Eastern European revolutionaries of 1989 topple their tyrants. The assistance we gave them was not military. It was moral.”

And what was the assistance? The Helsinki Final Act of 1975, “history’s biggest-ever poison pill.”

Now, if anyone’s going to get excited by a reference to the Helsinki Accords (a big ‘if’), it’s me. I wrote about their significance when another prominent historian, Tony Judt, died. The Ford administration got Leonid Brezhnev, and the heads of other Warsaw Pact countries, to sign a document pledging support for human rights, “including the freedom of thought, conscience, religion or belief.” Brezhnev didn’t think much of it, and neither did Gerald Ford or Henry Kissinger, for that matter. But the people of those countries took the words to heart. People like Vaclav Havel in Czechoslovakia and Jacek Kuron and Adam Michnik in Poland. (A lot of readers pooh-poohed my endorsement of Judt’s suggestion that signatures on a document could have any effect on the monolithic Soviet bloc. I’ve found this book a valuable resource in establishing that, in fact, the Helsinki Final Act was an early spur to democratization.)

Back to Ferguson. Why, he asks, doesn’t the trendy and ignorant President do a Helsinki today?

“Why have we failed to learn from that success? Why have we allowed a mockery to be made of the United Nations Human Rights Council, which numbered Libya among its members until just the other day and still includes Saudi Arabia, not to mention China and Cuba?

“Memo to the president: … It’s time for a new Helsinki, aimed at discrediting all of today’s unfree states, starting with the four I’ve just named.”

Take that, President Trendy Ignorant! All you have to do is get Libya, Saudi Arabia, China and Cuba to sign a document containing what Ferguson calls “startling words,” such as Helsinki’s mention of “fundamental freedoms, including the freedom of thought, conscience, religion or belief, for all without distinction as to race, sex, language or religion.” This will keep “thousands of Libyans” from dying. So I guess its effect will be damned near instantaneous.

I have only one problem with this. Well, no, that’s not true. I have three.

1. Recall that when Ford and Kissinger got Brezhnev to sign the Helsinki accords, Ford and Kissinger didn’t think their rights language was anything more important than boilerplate. Probably if they had conceived and advertised the Helsinki accords as a Trojan-horse poison pill “aimed at discrediting” the Soviets, the Soviets would have been reluctant to sign. Similarly, if President Trendy Ignorant invites Gaddafi, the House of Saud, the Castro brothers and the Hu Jintao to a signing ceremony, their spider sense might start tingling. Especially if he says, “Niall Ferguson told me to tell you this will be good for you.”

2. Anyway, these countries have already signed language that’s awfully similar to the Helsinki Final Act. UN General Assembly Resolution 60/251 set up the United Nations Human Rights Council. Among other things, it says this: “All human rights are universal, indivisible, interrelated, interdependent and mutually reinforcing, and that all human rights must be treated in a fair and equal manner, on the same footing and with the same emphasis.”

So whatever made the Helsinki Accords so potent, there is no guarantee that simply mouthing the same incantations will always work the same charm.

3. Here’s a tip for any rookie newsmagazine columnists in the audience.

When proposing a method for eliminating Mouammar Gadhafi “before thousands of Libyans [die],” to a president whose “ignorance” and need for “a history lesson” drive you to open mockery, it’s probably best not to propose a solution that took 16 years to work in the first place. Because “what helped the Central and Eastern European revolutionaries of 1989 topple their tyrants,” by Ferguson’s own account, took “two years of haggling” before it was signed, 14 years before the Central and Eastern European revolutionaries of 1989 began their revolutions.

So it’s probably not going to help anyone in Benghazi this weekend. The good news for Niall Ferguson is he has a whole week to come up with his next bright idea.

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  • BGLong

    It would be nice .. apparently not necessary, but nice …. if there were some mention from
    time to time that the Eastern European and Egypt turmoil developed out of labour activism.

  • OriginalEmily1

    Tisch, tisch….if there is anybody who's tried hard to be trendy it's Niall Ferguson…an old PNACer with a mid-life crisis.

    Gotta be faster these days though….his 15 minutes were up long time ago. He's just treading water now.

  • Peter

    Yes, a very strange column by Ferguson. I note that he didn't explicitly preclude a no-fly zone or other forms of direct intervention ("Yet it would also be an erroneous conclusion that the only form of assistance America can give to good revolutions is military"), but by not mentioning anything further on that option is absurd given the circumstances. And then to draw attention to the '75 Helsinki Accords without addressing other factors (I don't think the '75 accords had anything to do with the rise of Solidarity, the Afghanistan fiasco, the USSR's economic struggles) is also pretty weak. So the whole construction of this argument is flawed even before we get to the debate about whether negotiations with a nutbar, followed by a piece of paper, is even worth contemplating. It's a good warning for columnists — all it takes is one clunker to discredit them.

  • madeyoulook

    Ferguson: Why have we allowed a mockery to be made of the United Nations Human Rights Council, which numbered Libya among its members until just the other day and still includes Saudi Arabia, not to mention China and Cuba?

    The world is indeed pretty much indifferent to what the diplomatic clowns are up to on the canapé circuit. But I think Ferguson gets it backwards as to why. The member nations of the UN have mocked the UN itself with the current UNHRC membership. Our indifference did not lead to these UN outrages. UN outrage after UN outrage, rather, has led to our indifference.

    • s_c_f

      Exactly.

  • lgarvin

    Y'all are a little harsh, I think.

    Ferguson did not say "This instead of that" he said "This in addition to that."

    • Steve Smith

      Actually, he just said "This."

      • Steve Smith

        Apologies for that; my first reply didn't start showing up for me until after I posted my second one. I blame the Security Council.

  • bergkamp

    "In its first year, the Obama administration cut funding for democracy and governance programming in Egypt by more than half, from $50 million in 2008 to $20 million in 2009 (Congress later appropriated another $5 million) …….. the administration limited funding only to NGOs registered with the Egyptian government, oversees such groups broadly and can dissolve them for violations like receiving foreign funding. Most human rights groups are not registered with the government, according to an Egyptian academic interviewed by the U.S. Embassy." Huffington Post, Jan 2011

    The problem is Obama and his left wing analysis of the world – America is the problem, not the solution, because it is imperialist – not that we are lacking Helsinki Accords for Middle East. The dodgy countries sign all the Accords the UN cooks up, many of them have constitutions that say flowery things about democracy and freedom of thought …. etc but that's all public relations. Helsinki Accords would have been less than useless if any Eastern European dictators decided to attack its people like Ghadafi regime is doing at moment.

    Obama is typical left wing professor who came of age in 1960s and believes America is the fount of all evil in the world because it gets involved in internal affairs of other countries. America would be better off if it withdrew from world and only encouraged, with words, other peoples to fight for freedom. Obama Admin better do something because I believe Libya has potential to be albatross around Obama's neck next year if Libya situation is not concluded satisfactorily.

    • TheColourfield

      "Obama is typical left wing professor who came of age in 1960s and believes America is the fount of all evil in the world because it gets involved in internal affairs of other countries"

      He was born in 1961.

      Epic Fail.

      • bergkamp

        Poorly worded, I agree. All I meant was Obama is typical left wing professor – the kind that first appeared in 1960s – who hates America and all it stands for.

        Do you have anything to contribute other than parsing my quickly typed posts?

        • TheColourfield

          So you make excuses for your sloppy writing and I'm to blame for pointing out how silly your original post is?

          "America would be better off if it withdrew from world and only encouraged, with words, other peoples to fight for freedom."

          You may want to check out that little kerfuffle in Afghanistan. Perhaps you've heard of it.

          Why exactly is it US business to get involved in Libya? What are their interests there? Is having hundreds of thousands of troops stationed all over the world not enough?

  • Brian

    Ferguson is a brilliant historian. He should stick to history.

    His latest binge of current affairs shtick has fattened his wallet and broadened his ego, but it has also tarnished his brand.

  • tarkwell robotico

    Paul,

    Maybe Quedaffy hasn't linked to you, but someone almost as nutty:

    Andrew Sullivan.
    http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_d…

    Sullivan may be crazy, but so's his traffic!

    Congrats,

    - formerly chuckercanuck

  • LRH

    Why in the world does Niall Ferguson imagine himself to be qualified to comment competently on US international affairs? He's a financial historian… He is not a military strategist, diplomat or international relations expert. Nothing in his history suggests that he has the experience or knowledge to tell the Pentagon, POTUS or State Department how to run US foreign policy and as this article reveals, his latest forays into current affairs reveal his incredible incompetence. The man is delusional.

    • hosertohoosier

      1. He has a British accent. As great as Paul Wells' smackdown was, imagine how it would sound British.
      2. The sad thing is, compared to most pundits, he actually has a pretty good CV for this kind of stuff (and to be fair, his work is not just financial history – empire is another common theme*). Even the political scientists that do occasionally appear as pundits, are generally engaged in very general debates (eg. Fareed Zakaria), and probably know a lot less than say, the state dept. flacks covering the issue… plus, publicity tends to make people dumber.

      *My theory is that they envisioned him giving advice to Americans, from one Empire to another. "Oh you bloody Americans, here is how you do divide and conquer."

      • DerekPearce

        Ha! It seems a bit mean to pick on anyone for their accent, but when I watch Ferguson I think "he's let his accent go to his head," impressing the Yanks and all.

      • Kaplan

        I've read his book Empire. Believe me, there's not a shred of rigorous, academic analysis to be found. He employs a bizarre scorecard to conclude that colonialism was a good thing (you know, the Brits built a railway across Africa, sketched some maps, and built a parliament building in India, so, uh, it was all good!).

        Ferguson's got the right academic credentials, he's a great speaker, a natty dresser and is provacative. But he's dumb.

        • Kaplan

          Of course, I mispelled provocative above, so me is stoopid as well.

    • wsam

      I liked it when he picked a fight with Paul Krugman and Krugger kicked his butt, demonstrating that Ferguson had no idea what he was writing about.

      He knows history, but not how modern economies actually work.

      • hosertohoosier

        To a lesser degree, a lot of the criticisms of Ferguson could be leveled at Krugman. His work – which is really good stuff – is mostly about trade. However, when he veers into other dimensions he doesn't have any special expertise. Also, if you've followed him for long, you come to realize that he often contradicts himself (in the mid-90s, for instance, productivity was the most important thing on the planet… I miss mid-90's Krugman). This may be a general problem for academics – their expertise is by nature, quite specific, whereas public commentary is very general.

  • Michelle

    The most hyped presidential canidate in history,predictably evolved
    into the greatest presidential disappointment in history. End of Story.

  • AIO

    Just getting around to reading your blog this week. This is why you're damn worth reading, almost a week late.

  • chet

    A daisy cutter or two will do more than all the accords in the world.

    Thuggish "strongmen" know the language of military might.

    Impose a no fly zone and tell Qadaffi's he is to cease all attacks immediatly, backed up by a few fly overs with well armed fighter bombers and watch this coward catch the next flight to a tropical destination.

    Yet, the combined Western World's might, sits parked, watching, while this petty tin pot dictator savages freedom loving people.

  • kcm

    "I like to believe that people in the long run are going to do more to promote peace than our governments. Indeed, I think that people want peace so much that one of these days governments had better get out of the way and let them have it."
    — Dwight D. Eisenhower

    I'd like this believe this sentiment is as true and universal as it has always been
    Good article PWs. I'll keep an eye out for that book. It's nice to know that words most certainly do have the power to inspire. They always have had. It's just we're not always listening.

  • kcm

    Thuggish "strongmen" know the language of military might.

    Indeed they do. Which explains why we've been so prone to setting them up; that or turning a blind eye to their thuggisness whenever it has suited our interest.

  • OriginalEmily1

    That's your cause de jour eh chet?

    Intervene in the ME militarily yet again, in spite of all the fiascos that's already caused?

    Mind you, bombing the 'royal family' in Saudi Arabia for firing on their own people seems to be 'off the table' I notice.

  • wsam

    Dear Paul Wells,

    Why do you hate me? Is it because I'm sleeping with Ayaan Hirsi Ali and you're not? Don't hate the player, Paul. Hate the game.

    Nail Ferguson

  • DerekPearce

    You're right, Western governments could have ousted him at any point since the Cold War if they wanted to. They decided to not risk stability in the Middle East, which may or may not be a moral shame based on whether more lives have been saved than not. In this case, the time for talk is drawing rapidly to a close. I'm with chet on this one.

  • E-European – US

    As a person, who has personally witnessed and participated in the Eastern European "velvet" revolution (being 25 at the time) I could say that Niall Ferguson is quite right, yet incomplete, in his analysis. It was not so much the Helsinki accords that precipitated the "velvet revolution", but the combination of economic pressure with an uncompromising moral stance of Ronald Reagan towards the "Empire of Evil". Yes, as much as some of the liberals in the West would not realize, the moral stance of the leader of the greatest nation on Earth matters in smaller countries around the world. It is so sad to see the pathetic and clueless position of Obama. I am sure that this will enrage many of his liberal supporters but sorry. Thanks to the moral greatness of Ronnie Regan we got our freedom in Eastern Europe, and no thanks to Obama some of the freedom-fighters in the Arab world will end up as mutilated corpses.

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