Inkless Wells

Paul Wells on all the latest out of Ottawa—along with the occasional post about jazz. Follow Paul on Twitter: @InklessPW
He also offers his thoughtful perspective of Stephen Harper’s last 10 years in his recent eBook, The Harper Decade.

Categories: Capital Read, Inkless Wells

2012 came a little early this year

by Paul Wells on Tuesday, March 22, 2011 10:08pm - 178 Comments

So apparently we’re going to have an election. Here’s your primer.

In the past seven weeks we have run substantial new profiles of three of the national party leaders. John Geddes and I produced a very long retrospective of Stephen Harper’s years in power here. I explained why Michael Ignatieff had actually become eager to face the electorate here. John profiled Jack Layton, posing a question about the New Democrat’s nerve that has since been answered, here.

I have remarked for more than two years on Stephen Harper’s eagerness to frame this election as a choice between a Conservative majority and an opposition coalition. Even today, the Conservatives were circulating talking points saying the Liberals, NDP and Bloc have “united once again as a Coalition.” My best attempt to explain this choice by Harper appeared six months ago here.

Andrew Coyne got very angry at the Conservatives, here. Then he got very angry at the Liberals, here. He proposed a new political party here.

I like to be surprised by the way a campaign begins. I haven’t the faintest idea how this one will end. We’ll have some fun.

Tags: Election 2011, Refried beans

More by Paul Wells

sam

We have the opportunity to elect a stronger conservative minority with the NDP as the loyal opposition. Best part is that Iggnatief will be gone back to the states or England or wherever. Bring on Bob Rae to complete the destruction of the Liberal party. Then they can eat some humble pie and actually meet some Canadians and listen to them. In four or five years the Liberals might be relevant again.

Kaplan

As Wells has pointed out, I thought Harper has repeatedly stated that he can't govern with a minority government. His whole campaign strategy since 2008 has been to set up the opposition in any minority parliament as an evil coalition-in-waiting, which, genuis that Harper is, also demonstrates that: a) another Harper minority government would be inherently unstable and thus should be avoided, and b) the only alternative is to vote for a Liberal minority government. So I'd set your sites a bit higher than obtaining merely a "stronger" Conservative minority.

Toad

Dion's manner of speaking may have played a "leading role" in his downfall, but that is not neccesarily to say that all canadians who didn't vote for him are ignorant. I think it can be universally agreed upon that, regardless of your opinions about him, Dion was not the best public speaker. Good oratory skills are essential in getting ahead in politics, are they not?
HarveyMushman

So you're saying that even the Liberals don't want Ignatieff as PM of a coalition government…?

Blacktop

That's right. Nor of any government. His moving into the leadership was opportunistic. He was clearly a mistake encouraged by the Rainmaker in his dotage and this election is being held so that they can get rid of him when Harper rides to another minority.

Toad

alright, point taken.
however, it could be argued that chretien was a more captivating speaker than dion.

Toad

actually, forget it. that's probably the most pointless thing I've ever defended.

manitoba trail fire

No you're right. Dion had no stage presence, not just problems with English. Delivery and timing were lacking.

filturk

My prediction : the Bloc gains 2, the NDP gains 3, the Liberals gain 15, and the Conservatives lose 20.

eleanor

Hurrah

Chris

Dear Macleans.

Hire this man (or woman).

That is all.
theintellectual

Agreed. Lets kick these jokers out and start fresh.
Blacktop

Nonsense, Emily-whatever. The public turned him down because of his environmental tax and his apparent wimpiness. Not a leader

OriginalEmily1

No one understood the environmental policy….one we'll get sooner or later anyway….and 'wimpiness' is just a standard Con schoolyard slur.

Blacktop

There was no opaqueness about his environmental policy. Until China, India and the US were on board our own economy was put at unnecessary uncompetitive risk. (all of the above building multi coal fired power plants. Only a blind idealist could buy that, OEmily1.

OriginalEmily1

Most people didn't understand it. Including you apparently.

Blacktop

No point in trying to suck up to her, Albert. Now that the election uis for sure, she'll have to make a choice.
westmalle

First prediction based on events on Day -1 and Day 1 of campaign:

CPC 185
Bloc 52
NDP 41
LPC 29
Ind 1 (Arthur, not May)
Diogenes54

How would you like your crow served? ;-)

Yes, it's going to be an interesting one.
DBM

I think Wells' rules hold true here – at some point in the last few weeks, an election became the least interesting (or least surprising) outcome.
LdKitchenersOwn

My two favourite points on Twitter about #Team2012:

1) The Mayans will be glad to get the #Team2012 hashtag back.

2) There could still be an election in 2012 (i.e. after the 2011 election…. shudder….).
EeeOar

Exactly.

November of 2012 would be 18 months, not so bad for a minority government.

But best of all Coyne and Wells could say "We were right!"
madeyoulook

That would be a rather expensive pair of smug smiles, though…
McC_

why do you hate poll clerks and returning officers?

;-)
Keith in Brampton

Think of it as "economic stimulus"
EeeOar

I'll cover your portion of the 2012 election, but you're on your own with this one.
non-partisan

Complaining about the cost of an election is absolutely ridiculous. First, the cost ($300-350 million) is tiny in comparison to overall federal spending. Second, when you consider what other things the government spends money on (a lot of waste) election spending looks even better.

Finally, Canada has the best non-partisan election organization operation (Elections Canada) in the world. We are literally world leaders, even among western developed nations, in running free, fair and non-partisan elections and we do it across the second biggest country on the planet in two languages.

At $350 million, our elections are a bargain.
madeyoulook

Sure, but do you get that I was referring to a 2012 election coming after the 2011 election, all so two pundits could smile smugly about the rescue of their prediction?
Blacktop

Just so, but not one that was not needed as it looks like there is no radical swing in voter preference. So it is $350 million (or whatever) wasted.