Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

Ryan Dolby turns himself into an analogy

by Aaron Wherry on Wednesday, March 30, 2011 1:08pm - 94 Comments

Ryan Dolby, the NDP candidate in Elgin-Middlesex-London, has stepped down, apparently out of fear of splitting the vote.

“I think it’s the best decision on behalf of my family, my community, and my country to do whatever I can to make sure there isn’t a Conservative victory, especially in this riding,” he said.“I want to make sure we get a progressive MP — one that cares about improvements to Canada Pension Plan, improvements to employment insurance, believes in democracy instead of contempt, and believes in sustainable job creation instead of building more prisons.”“I know Graham Warwick has the same values that I do.”

The Conservative incumbent is predictably crying coalition, but the NDP says there will be a new candidate in short order.

The Liberals last won the riding (narrowly) in 2000. If you combined the votes received by Mr. Dolby and the Liberal candidate in 2008, Conservative Joe Preston would have still won (albeit narrowly): 22,970 to 20,304.

Tags: election, Election 2011, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Graham Warwick, Joe Preston, Ryan Dolby

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OriginalEmily1

This is certainly turning into an unusual election.

elxn41

Hope so. This is the first sign I've seen that maybe the argument for defeating Harper through strategic voting is so strong, even the leadership of the two parties can't stop it from happening. This guy could be a game-changer.

OriginalEmily1

Seems to be a lot of moving about and complaining on the right this time. Cons complaining ridings have been rigged, workers changing parties….and now this. Verra strange.

elxn41

The right is understandably apoplectic over strategic voting, since it would doom their government.

OriginalEmily1

They seem to be apoplectic over everything about this election so far. LOL
psiclone

OR get us a majority and at the same time spell the doom of another party as the Liebrals would try to eat the NDP up like harper did with the Reform, PC and Alliance merger – you see the real conflict here folks is between the divided left and if ABC catches on then the NDP get gobbled up the Liberals this has been the Lib's aim for quite some time now – why do you think they threw Dion under the bus so fast – think about it
elxn41

Other than for the few card-carrying members of each party, I think whatever happens between the two parties down the road is far less important than defeating Harper.

That's what you get for running a government where all that matters is the 35 per cent who vote for you. Eventually, the 65 per cent you have been deliberately irritating will figure out how to get rid of you.
http://www.idrinkinthemorning.com Not_Wherry

I just want to see a CPC majority so that we can have some political peace for a while! I'm sick of elections every two years!

Patchouli

Now that's a strong statement. Confusing but strong. Admirable? In a way, but kind of hard on his party…but it sure has ABC written all over it.

Mike T.

ABC?

Plain Old Anon

Most adamantly agree.
Garnet

The other sign of what we might call the mental coalition so far is in Edmonton Strathcona, where the Libs have opted to run a 20-year-old student, rather than a serious candidate, to help out the NDP's incumbent Linda Duncan.

John D

Are you saying that a 20-year old student can't be a serious candidate? Wasn't PP elected as a 14 year-old dropout?

Garnet

I'm saying however stouthearted the lad is, he's someone you pick to fill out a slate, not someone you try to win with. Given that the Grits have come very close to taking this seat in the recent past, the kid's candidacy seems like a tactical decision to lend aid to Duncan. Not irrational, mind you.

Thwim

Given that it's an Alberta riding, there may well have been a paucity of people willing to carry the Liberal banner. Not unheard of out here.

Mike T.

the conservatives once ran a U of T student in the riding that encompasses U of T.

Garnet

Are you talking about Trinity-Spadina? The Tories don't really have the horses there to even act as spoiler (and they're not likely to throw their support behind any other party, either). Whereas in Strathcona the Liberals have usually been the runner-up while campaigning very, very competitively, as the results would show you. It's different. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton%E2%80%94Str…

John D

Too bad that never crossed his mind before he decided to screw his own party.

alfanerd

exactly. what a tool this guy is. he didnt change anything, except hurting his party's morale and helping Harper make the coalition case.

it's not his decision to make whether the NDP runs a candidate there.
prescott

You mean like David Emerson? That creep waited until the day AFTER he won as a Liberal and showed complete disdain for his constituents by going over to the complete opposite of what they voted for? Does that name not ring a bell for you?

OriginalEmily1

Harp just lost another campaign worker
prescott

From yesterday's Vancouver Sun, where harper was campaigning. He is STRICTLY controlling everyithing you see and hear. Link to full article at bottom of page – pass it around.
http://www.canada.com/business/Opinion+Harper+str…
3peter

He's a CAW local president who won the nomination in 2009. He ran municipally last year and got smoked. His plant is closing in September, after which he's out of a job.

The CAW is really POed by the number of its members running for the NDP in defiance of their strategic voting policy. My guess is that the CAW national office has been telling him he has a future in the union if he steps aside.

Anyway, pretty sleazy move to pull this after the writ drops.

elxn41

I suppose that is something party stalwarts can and will be bothered by, but it isn't anything that ought to bother anyone wanting to defeat Harper.

The CAW is an outlier on strategic voting anyway. They strategic option they support is opposed by the establishments of the Liberals and the NDP and of course, by the Conservative party, since it will reduce them to opposition status.
Thwim

Pretty sleazy move to pull this against the wishes of his riding association.

However, if it's in keeping with those, not sleazy at all.

3peter

Apparently they nominated a new candidate tonight.

Thwim

Could you provide a link? The only source I can find for that information seems to be you.

3peter

Heard it just before I posted. I live in the next riding. Doesn't seem to have been picked up by print or tv yet. Either that or the report was wrong, which doesn't seem likely. Probably just isn't as much fun as the original story.

Anyway, the London Free Press has quotes from local riding association types and the national office about their intention to carry on and hold a nominating meeting within 48 hours. Sounds like they beat their deadline: http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2011/03/30/178…

Mikel

Hey 3Peter…I was wondering the same thing. Politics does make strange bedfellows….particularily when the bedfellow is going to be out of a job soon with very limited opportunities locally for employment and certainly had no chance of winning the election. Sure hope the local papers keep an eye on this guy…to me it really sounds kind of slippery
jerryg

Hi Peter,

Interesting post thanks for sharing. This is an honest question, but I always thought CAW would be happy its members vote for NDP with it being union friendly. Wouldn't CAW be happy they are being represented? You are right though the factory will be closing down and Ryan will be out of a job.

I thought Ryan's comments about how he's doing it for the good of the country laughable. Patriot he is not.

Leo

So the libs and dippers are starting coordinated campaigning by picking and choosing which ridings they plan on running candidates??

This is starting to make sense as they are running the same platforms. Hope they get called on it soon

noob_goldberg

Actually, it was the Dippers and Bloc that were trading seats last weekend, if I recall correctly.

This just appears to be one guy who wandered off the Orange reservation.

Leo

Thought I just heard Iggnatief promising $700 in GIS for poor seniors, which, is exactly what Layton demanded pre-budget – but I have to admit, they are all starting to sound the same!!!

noob_goldberg

I'm distracted today, I didn't catch that announcement.

It's day–what?–6 of the campaign? I've already had enough of it.

prescott

David Emerson ring any bells in your empty head?

FVerhoeven

Amazing! You have to go so far abroad for finding further smear campaigns against Mr.Harper?

Why not stay closer to home and read the stuff from people who know what's really going on in this country. Or are you now afraid of listening to the Canadian voice of reason?
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/03/11/electoral-frau…

prescott

Nice try – his abominations are noticed everywhere. Face it, bub, the guy's a social reject and a LIAR

gar

It seems to be a habit of the NDP Rae,Dajanjh this guy all traitors to a cause.This may put a lot of NDP votes in the Conservative camp. there is nothing lower than a Benedict Arnold in politics..this guy probably thinks he has read the cards right and should the Liberals win he will get a cushiony job. A Rat is a Rat no matter how he plays the cheese.A coward who could not get up to the task.The NDP should replace him immediately with a new Candidate who will take a lot of Liberal votes from fair minded people.

prescott

You mean like David Emerson? Set the bar at new lows by waiting until the day AFTER he was elected to dump on his constituents.

Blue

Liberals help out Duncan (NDP ) in Edmonton.
NDP help out Liberals in London-Middlesex.
Duceppe tries to justify Bloc`s role in a coalition.

Hey, maybe Harper better start talking about this coalition-thingy again.

Leo

NP is on it, lol!!!

"Just when you thought the C-word was fading amidst a slew of policy announcements, it gets a second wind, thanks to… the NDP. Turns out the NDP candidate in Elgin-Middlesex-London has bailed and thrown his support to the Liberals, in an effort to prevent a Harper majority."

Mike T.

As important as it is for Harper to be denied ridings, I cannot condone this.

Funny how the usual suspects are screaming orchestrated plan. Will actual official CPC spokespeople with names and faces be so bold, or will it stay at this level?

danby

Will actual official CPC spokespeople with names and faces be so bold

It depends on whether they are delivering tight lipped talking points/press releases, or are actually taking questions from the media.

elxn41

The CPC is even more scared of strategic voting than the LIb and NDP establishments.

Ironically, the only thing the three major parties are united on is their opposition to strategic voting.

I predict much shuffling of talking points by all parties in the next day or so.

FVerhoeven

Way to go Mike T. Another twisted conclusion in order to take the heat off the NDP deplorable tactics, by placing the blame of it all over to the Conservatives. As if no one would notice…………..

Perhaps you're right. Perhaps the average voter will fall for your stategy as set out in your post, but the poll results don't show it.

Mike T.

no.

prescott

The name David Emerson ring any bells for you? Set the bar at new lows by waiting until the day AFTER he was elected Liberal to dump on his constituents and go over to the extreme opposite neocons.

psiclone

This is just too rich and just might be what we need to get the Liberlas and the NDP to start sqauring off with each other – this startegy of all the oppostion spending all their ammunition on the CPC is STUPID … we all even the undecided know that all the other parties hate the CPC BUT what differentiates them between each other – it is as if they were all just one party hmmmmm!
Patchouli

Informal poll: if this happened in your riding, would you automatically vote the way the stepping-out candidate wants you to?

Would you think it was a coalition plan, or just a torpedo at his or her own party?

elxn41

If there is a chance that by voting for the 2nd place party endorsed by the stepping-down 3rd place candidate, that I would defeat a CPC MP, then sign me up. Getting rid of Harper is Job #1 for many voters in this election.
prescott

Best to ask all the constituents in what was Liberal David Emerson's riding. Remeber him? One day AFTER being elected Liberal, he joined the Cons.
Thwim

Depends on who was the best candidate left over.

Assuming no Rhino candidates, of course.

FVerhoeven

Here's the blue door: Harper openly declared that a merger of the Conservatives and Alliance was the best thing to do. He was elected by the party membership of the newly merged party. Signs of strong leadership.

Here's the red door: Ignatieff declaring that to accept being appointed leader of a national party was the best thing to do. Signs of a weak leadership.

Here's the back door: NDP decides to play the riding game; drop a candidate here and there in order to let another anti-Harper candidate win the riding. Signs of pathetic leadership qualities.

I wonder if the Canadian voter still knows what strong leadership requires these days.

http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

Here's the trap door: David Orchard.

FVerhoeven

Orchard had nothing to do with Harper's leadership race, although I'm sure you would like to pin all of that on him too.

But then again, when you can't come up with real reasons to speak against Harper's leadership qualities, one must resort to unconnnected connections and hope they will stick. The probably will, because who gives a hoot about how historic events unfolded if everything must and shall be blamed on Harper. Another day, another unfounded accusation. You really do start mirroring the G&M

http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

Speaks to character, Your Honor.

FVerhoeven

Orchard versus MacKay – speaks to character, Your Honor (although I think most Canadians would go for MacKay over Orcard)

Golfballs versus stuffed brown bags – speaks to character, Your Honor: trying to cover up the order of stuffed brown bags with an order of golfballs won't win the game.
http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

So then you're cool with calling an inquiry into Orchardgate? :)

I mean, it was one of the crucial pivot moments in the history of the rise of the Harper Government™…

But I guess if you're gonna make a coalition, you gotta break some eggs.
FVerhoeven

I'll make you a deal, Halo_Override: as soon as the 40 million dollars-plus of the Sponsorship scandal has been recovered (I don't care how it'll be recovered – perhaps the Liberal party wants to make some donations back to the Canadian taxpayers, but I will leave that up to the Liberal party to decide – than I will press Mr.MacKay to pay for an inquiry into the Orchardgate with such monies recovered.

Have we got a deal?

And after all is said and done, perhaps there may be some money left over to sent you abraod to learn about the meaning of coalitions. You would be so pleased to learn how the real thing gets accomplished in more mature nations.
http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

It's hardly fair to say my investigation can't start until yours is done. But here's my gentlemanly compromise:

As soon whatever reparations the LPC makes satisfy the CPC that the financial debt has been paid and the issue is resolved, I will forgive the fact that the CPC is founded upon a publicly-broken contract and accept that their ethical debt has been similarly paid and their past sins equally expunged.

I like this plan, because:
A) similar to every other political-financial scandal since the dawn of the agora, the Liberal party will never pay back whatever figure is accepted to be the final price tag.
B) even if the Liberals paid back twice the final bill tomorrow, Conservatives would not stop talking about it.

Where we agree is that other nations around the world seem to have mastered living under coalition governments without wetting their pants about it.

Style

It has been – two NDP candidates withdrew during the campaign in the last election, one in BC, the other in Ontario (Bev Oda's riding?). The NDP vote dropped, but didn't disappear, and the Liberal vote didn't increase by nearly enough to change the outcome. There are many NDP voters who will never vote Liberal. Partly because of stunts like this one.

jonatwitan

NO!!!! IT CAN'T BE!!!!!!! THAT GOES AGAINST EVERYTHING I HOLD MOST DEAR!!!!! WHY DO YOU HATE CANADA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
elxn41

Here are 22 ridings where strategic voting could defeat incumbent conservative MPs and send Harper packing.
http://www.catch22campaign.ca

You're welcome!

gottabesaid

A strategic attempt to foist strategic voting on the electors of Elgin-Middlesex-London? Proof of coalition backroom dealing? Simply an act of electoral insanity?

I can't tell. Mr. Dolby has blinded me with (political) science.

http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

I can hear machinery!

Waslcally Wabbit

Er – there's a Blue coalition and maybe there's a red-orange-green coalition. Be neat if there was – 'cos 65% of Canadians beats out 35% of Canadians every time – that's democracy folks!
prescott

It was certainly true when Liberal David Emerson, the day after being elected, double-crossed and ditched his constituents. Or have you conveniently forgotten that little turncoat?
Thwim

Is acknowledging that you will be defeated, bowing out of a race, and throwing your support behind another candidate disgraceful? Because it happens all the time. Usually during leadership campaigns, of course, but it's hardly unusual.

Now, if he did this against the wishes of his riding association? Yes, then it's a pretty lousy thing to do. But maybe they've discussed it and decided they're good with that. If there are NDP voters who aren't, perhaps next time they'll be inclined to get more involved.
3peter

Here's a London Free Press story on the NDP nominating a replacement last night:

"Fred Sinclair, the NDP riding association president for Elgin-Middlesex-London, was named as the candidate in the May 2 federal election."
http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2011/03/31/178…
3peter

The CAW have taken an anti-Conservative, negative voting strategy since the Harris years in Ontario. When the Buzzard was president he was also an NDP member and the provicial party tossed him out for advocating support for the Liberal party, in violation of the membership provisions. Things have been frosty since.
elxn41

This shows that even the parties won't likely be able to keep the lid on the strategic voting genie.

If 3rd place hopeless candidates in Con ridings start going openly strategic, and their voters follow, then that is truly a nightmare scenario for Harper.

Seriously, this may actually be a game changer.
elxn41

He is doing it for a greater good — to defeat the Harper government.

I hope he is the first of many 3rd place NDP and Lib candidates who decide to stand down so their supporters can defeat Harper.
WDM

If left of centre voters want to abandon the NDP and Greens this election, that's their right. However, when you put your name forward for a party you are taking on a responsibility. He's apparently been talking to the Liberals for a month, the second he started talking to them he should have resigned as the NDP candidate, period. This changes nothing. The NDP will re-nominate someone, and in this particular riding the Conservatives won more votes than the Liberals and NDP in 2008.
Patchouli

WDM's right — there ARE NDP members, and his riding association, who have supported him and his run at the seat. Think of how angry the local Liberals were when Dion agreed to pull the candidate so E May could run in the seat. It's kind of anti-democratic, even if you think it's for a greater good — it shafts those people who believe in the NDP policies and spend a lot of time and effort trying to get the message out.
FVerhoeven

Spoken like a real believer in democracy; If you don't like the opposition, just use every undemocratic tactic to get rid of your opponent.
DPT

your argument relies on the perhaps questionable assumption that all votes go to the remaining Lib/NDP candidate which may be so in the case of a Dipper dropping out, but in the case of a Liberal lie down I think much of their vote would go right not left.
jonatwitan

"a greater good"

I can't believe you just said that. No really, I can't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUpbOliTHJY
elxn41

For many people who are not partisans, there is NO greater good than defeating the Harper government.
Patchouli

Hey, I'm there with ya, I just think it's hard on his party and all those volunteer workers. A strong indictment against the harps, indeed.
elxn41

I think what Ryan has done is to let the strategic voting genie out of the bottle.

I agree his isn't the best riding for this, but if you add the Libs and NDP and Greens, then it's buh-bye Joe.

More important, if the NDP folks in London West decide they want to defeat Harper, they can easily defeat Holder if even a quarter of them vote Lib.
elxn41

Agreed. In Con-held ridings where their candidates come 3rd, NDP and Lib party establishment is an obstacle to defeating Harper. If anti-Harper voters begin to realize this, I think the game changes big time.
elxn41

How is it undemocratic if a plurality of voters in a riding decide to vote in a manner that aims to defeat a party they detest?
Patchouli

Sounds like a page out of harper's strategy book, no?
FVerhoeven

I'm not surprised at all!

Now the coalition is sharing ridings in order to win more seats.

Months ago, the Liberals and NDP policies have been lined up to make a coalition agreement less awkward then before; the Liberals who have always believed in business tax cuts, but will now up those taxes in sinc with the NDP. So that when the coalition will be formed, all of those policies are already liined up.

Why would anyone be surprised the way the NDP and the Liberals are going about demonstrating their new found democratic principles?

Ignatieff and his new found democratic principles. I'd say: why are Canadian voters so eager to be used as testing grounds??
elxn41

Hah! The NDP establishment is as apoplectic over strategic voting as is the Liberal establishment. No amount of Con blather about coalitions will disguise that reality.
Patchouli

Foolish one, if all the Dippers step down to let the Liberals win — voila, no need for coalition, we have a Liberal government. I don't think there's any cohesion here; strategic voting is not a coalition. Nor does it mean the NDPers will all naturally vote Liberal — could be a green candidate; they could go nuts and vote for the cunservatives.
jonatwitan

Yeah, especially in ridings like this one where the Libs and Dips vote still does not add up to more than the Con vote.

But I see your point.

I wish the NDP would not field another candidate here, so that it could be a true case study of this argument. In '08 it was like 23000 Con to 20500 Lib/Dip. Would there be a dramatic difference if the NDP candidate openly campaigned for the LIbs? Which way would the votes swing? I wish we could see.
elxn41

Quite so. In contrast to today's confused and panicked CPC talking points, strategic voting and coalitions are totally different concepts.

A big difference is that strategic voting doesn't actually need the support of either party, sicne voters can do this on their own.

As for what happens after Harper is defeated by strategic voting, I hope we get a chance to find out.
alfanerd

yep, pretty much every atrocity ever to happen in the history of the world has been justified like that.
http://halooverride.blogspot.com/ Halo_Override

Crusty jugglers.
elxn41

This site lists 22 seats where incumbent conservatives could be defeated by strategic voting.
http://www.catch22campaign.ca
Thwim

May's riding back in 08 gives you a clue. As the Liberals did not run, May got *more* votes and a higher percentage of the total vote than the Liberals and the Greens got, when added together, in the election before.

Of course, in that case you were talking the grouping of the third and laughably distant fourth place candidates, so it wasn't enough to put her over the top of post.
elxn41

So defeating Harper would be among the great atrocities of the world?

Very amusing.

Here's a site that lists 22 ridings where smart voting could defeat the Harper government.
http://www.catch22campaign.ca
alfanerd

no, not at all. but this justification has also been used for the greatest of atrocities.