Beyond The Commons

 Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read, Uncategorized

Vague notions

by Aaron Wherry on Thursday, April 7, 2011 1:55pm - 49 Comments

Fifty-four percent of Canadians prefer a Liberal-NDP coalition to a Conservative majority, but a plurality of Canadians feel uneasy about the idea of coalition government.

When you think about the idea of a coalition government in Canada do you have a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or negative impression?

Positive 18%
Somewhat positive 22%
Somewhat negative 17%
Negative 32%
Unsure 12%

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  • Mike T.

    That's because Canadians are idiots.

    • Crit_Reasoning

      Seriously, Mike T.? That's how you interpret this poll?

      • Andrew (not PorC)

        There is a troll who is using Mike T.'s name. I'm assuming all the troll-like comments under that name are not legitimate.

        • Crit_Reasoning

          The real Mike T. also produces troll-like comments from time to time, so it's hard to tell. For example, he said something incredibly vile to Claudia the other day, and it was deleted by the admin.

          However, since "Mike T." has not yet responded, I'm going to give him the benefit of doubt and assume that you're right.

          • alfanerd

            i've never seen a comment by a Mike T which was not completely idiotic and troll-like.

          • SanDiegoDave

            Hear hear.

    • OriginalEmily1

      So Harper keeps telling us.

      • Crit_Reasoning

        So are you the real Mike T.? If you are, it should be fairly easy to demonstrate.

        • Mike T.

          Kill us both, Spock!

          • SanDiegoDave

            Line of the Day- thank you.

          • john g

            LOL. You usually drive me crazy but I have to agree with SDD, well done.

    • alfanerd

      and screencaptured. thanks Mike T.

      • Andrew (not PorC)

        See by response to CR.

  • OriginalEmily1

    Seems Canadians don't mind it after all.

    Probably at the stage of ABC….anyone but Cons

    • Guest #1

      I think this looks worse for the Liberals.
      With the Conservatives only @ about 37% in the polls, were is the 9% coming from that would prefer a conservative majority to a coalition?

      • practical mom

        Well, the question didn't mention coalition members, just the notion of a coalition government. I expect some would answer on that basis and not assume that specific coalitions were meant and others excluded.

        QUESTION: When you think about the idea of a coalition government in Canada do you
        have a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or negative impression?

        • Guest #1

          The Link "Ipsos Reid asks Canadians to choose between a Liberal-NDP coalition and a Conservative majority"
          Aaron "Fifty-four percent of Canadians prefer a Liberal-NDP coalition to a Conservative majority"
          That makes 46% for a Conservative majority. Where are they coming from?

          • practical mom

            The numbers slice another way as well. With the Conservatives at 37%, only 32% have a negative view of a coalition. So there are some Conservatives who are rational enough to see that the results of an election have to be dealt with.

          • Guest #1

            If you look at it that way, With the Liberals @ 28%, only 18% have a positive view of a coalition.
            When the question is as simple as 'Liberal/NDP coalition' or 'Conservative majority' the Liberals need to be wondering about the 9%.
            Maybe I am simplifying the numbers to much.

  • Realistic

    Coalitions for Dummies

    Libs-NDP good
    Libs-NDP with support from the Bloc bad

    Explanaton for Dummies
    Giles and his band of Boc-heads will have Jack and Iggy backed up against the barn door and it won't be "lovin" on his mind

    • OriginalEmily1

      The Bloc has already been our Official Opposition, and did just fine at the job.

      • Blue

        Jeez—-normally I would just let her ramble on…. but c`mon—-the Bloc did just fine ? Of all the inane remarks this one takes the cake.

        In 1995, two years after the Bloc became Official Opposition, the leader of the Official Opposition in Parliament, Lucien Bouchard, led the separatists in the Quebec Referendum to within one and a half percentage points of splitting up our country. And she thinks they did just fine at the job !

        • OriginalEmily1

          They did just fine being the federal Official Opposition.

          The referendum was an internal Quebec matter

          • Blue

            Wow—that says it all.

          • OriginalEmily1

            Good, then presumably I won't have to explain the difference between federal and provincial to you.

          • non-partisan

            Yeah, the same way the government of Vichy France was an “internal French matter.”

            Please. Stop being so stupidly faceitous. In the mid-nineties the Bloc was actively, and quite successfuly working to break up the country.

          • OriginalEmily1

            Please no old WWII movies.

    • Jan

      Meanwhile Harper has just confirmed the Blocs demand for billions for the HST. Even guaranteed a date in September. Who is in bed with who here?

  • NorthernPoV
    • OriginalEmily1

      Wow…and these are the people we're competing with.

    • Anon

      Nice parlour trick but on a different different note, http://www.cbc.ca/news/arts/story/2011/04/07/ai-w….

      At least over there they don't have the potential existential crisis of a coalition government to think about.

  • Passing by

    After years of Harper lying about a coalition being illegitimate, and with not a single party expressing support for the idea, we still have 40 per cent of Canadians in favour, and only Harper's core 30 per cent opposed.

    That suggests it won't be hard sell at all for Ignatieff to form a minority government committed to parliamentary cooperation.

    Alberta will just have to get over it.

  • Jan

    If Harper has that kind of leadership, why the hell hasn't he used it in the past?

    • practical mom

      I think he may have been putting all his effort into his A game – get a majority.

      It depends on what the election results are. No doubt, if there's is a whiff of majority, he will drive the opposition to defeat him so he can show everyone what happens and then ask again for a majority. But if it's clear there won't be a majority, will he just hand over power without trying to hang on?

      I know that if he had used his minority government to show Canadians this type of leadership, he would be getting his majority. So maybe he really is incapable. I just don't see him letting go easily.

  • jonatwitan

    Yes you should have, because with 49 per cent negative, and 12 per cent unsure, your glasses should not be so rosy.

    Classic distortion of stats. Adds up the two positive numbers and compares them to only one of the negative numbers. I don't know what else to say.

  • NorthernPoV

    Push-Polling for Harper.

    Try this out:
    "Most countries that have a Parliamentary democracy similar to Canada (for example, Great Britain) have a coalition government. When you think about the idea of a coalition government in Canada do you have a positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or negative impression?

  • Crit_Reasoning

    According to this poll, 49% of Canadians have a negative impression of a coalition. That's technically a plurality, but almost a majority.

    According to the Ipsos Reid poll linked above, a majority of Canadians (52%) oppose a coalition. However, when the options are presented as Lib/NDP coalition vs. Con majority, 54% say they prefer the Lib/NDP coalition, vs. 46% for the majority.

    It would have been interesting to see how Canadians respond to a Lib/NDP coalition propped up by the Bloc Quebecois, which is mathematically the most likely scenario. In order for a Lib/NDP coalition to have a majority of seats, the NDP would have to win more seats than the Bloc, which seems unlikely.

  • Blue

    …..logical analysis of the numbers CR.. But even if the Libs retained the number of seats they now have and the NDP and Bloc switched their numbers ( highly unlikely ) the combined Lib-NDP seats would be 17 short of the Conservative seat count.

  • OriginalEmily1

    The Bloc has never been, and will never be, part of a coalition.

  • Crit_Reasoning

    Yes, I agree that it's almost impossible for a Liberal/NDP coalition to hold the confidence of the House without being propped up by the Bloc.

    For a theoretical LPC/NDP coalition to have a majority, the following conditions would have to be met:

    1. CPC>LPC>NDP>BQ
    2. (LPC/NDP)>(CPC/BQ)

    Pretty much any realistic coalition scenario involves a LPC/NDP minority, propped up by the BQ, just like the proposed coalition in 2008.

  • gottabesaid

    At the risk of sounding like a naive ninny, isn't the election of a minority parliament essentially Canadians saying, 'we want you guys to work together?' Inclusion of the BQ in any governing scenario makes me uncomfortable, but other than that… Con + NDP, Con + Lib, Lib + NDP… it doesn't really matter much to me. Coalition… formal arrangement… whatever. Work together. Act like statesmen (and women). Yeah, I know… naive.

  • Realistic

    Keep putting lipstick on that pig Emms its starting to look better everytime you say it.

  • OriginalEmily1

    *I* didn't say it….the documents and Duceppe did.

  • Crit_Reasoning

    Why, you naive ninny! :-)

    Inclusion of the BQ in any governing scenario makes me uncomfortable

    How about a coalition propped up by the Bloc? This would mean that the Bloc would essentially have a veto over the budget and every major bill. I'm pretty sure Duceppe would make the most of this scenario, extorting billions of dollars in new spending for Quebec. There is a price to pay for being a federal government propped up by separatists who are loyal only to Quebec.

    The worst part is that a LPC/NDP coalition that doesn't need to be propped up by the Bloc—in other words, a combined LPC/NDP majority—is mathematically almost impossible given the current numbers. As I pointed out above, for that to happen, the NDP would have to win more seats than the Bloc.

  • John D

    I disagree that the election of a minority parliament is Canadians 'saying' anything. Minority/majority are not on the ballot. The electoral system takes Canadians' preferences for a particular party or candidate and turns them into a Parliament.

    That being said, I agree with your conclusion. After all these years our MPs still don't GET how a minority parliament is supposed to work. The government acts like it has a majority, the opposition lets them do that for 2 years, and then everyone is surprised when there is an election.

  • Thwim

    You're going to get that regardless.. if LIB/NDP = minority and CPC = minority, then by your defintion, either side is propped up by the Bloc.

    Oh wait, you say, the CPC could be propped up by the Lib or NDP… oh wait, say I, in that case, the LIB/NDP could be propped up by the CPC.

    The only wayt we get a government that's hostage to the Bloc is if the CPC refuses to cooperate at all with the Liberals and NDP.

    What's a minority about? Cooperation.

  • gottabesaid

    Thwim basically hit my point, though it is the point at the heart of my naivité… the CPC could strike an agreement with the LPC or the NDP.

    Crazy sh*t, I know.

  • gottabesaid

    Oversimplification on my part just to get to my conclusion.

  • André

    I participated in a telephone survey yesterday and when asked which coalition scenario I would prefer, I answered with the only option that wasn't offered: LPC-CPC.

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