Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

Categories: Beyond The Commons, Capital Read

What changed in the last 17 days?

by Aaron Wherry on Friday, April 8, 2011 12:03pm - 137 Comments

In October 2008, Stephen Harper promised his government would “never” go into deficit. In November 2008, the Harper government projected budget surpluses through 2013-2014. In January 2009, the Harper government projected deficits through 2012-2013 and a surplus in 2013-2014. In October 2010, the Harper government projected deficits through 2014-2015 and a surplus in 2015-2016.

Two weeks ago, the Harper government projected a $300-million deficit in 2014-2015 and a surplus of $4.2-billion in 2015-2016.

Today, the Harper government projects a $3.7-billion surplus in 2014-2015 and an $8.2-billion surplus in 2015-2016.

Update 2:51pm… A kind of explanation is here.

Update 4:22pm… Jim Flaherty’s previous explanation is here.

Tags: Budget, deficit, economic update, election, Election 2011, platform, Stephen Harper, surplus

More by Aaron Wherry

Mike T.

Hell, why not just say $17 billion and wipe out the deficit as well?
nakedApe42

Harper's original budget plan was to cut $6.8B to balance the budget by 2015. Both Kevin Page of the PBO and the IMF said Harper's plan was bogus: http://bit.ly/f8uAQ6. Harper waved his magic wand and upped the already discredited number of $6.8B by $4B in today's platform: http://bit.ly/gQk425

These numbers are obviously not reliable. Harper appointed Page to ensure the budget numbers were valid. But Harper decided to take a contempt of Parliament conviction rather than hand over the budget documents to Page.

We won't know what the real numbers are until there's a new government (whenever that occurs.)

DPT

Page hasn't been entirely accurate acurate either. So far the deficit has come down faster than he ever allowed for.

Prove It

says who? It only came down faster than the TD bank thought, with TD & Finance now being on the same page AS Page for the latest year – $40B for 09/10; and the rest is all smoke and mirrors, with Page saying they'll be overspending by at least $5-B more each year than they claim, unless they make some actual cuts, which they've yet to announce.

Prove It

er, that would be 2010/11 for the latest yr

Andrew (not PorC)

As I recall the stimulus in the '09-'10 budget was something like $30 billion. As you'll recall, the deficit ended up being over $50 billion. I don't have time to go digging through the budget, but I'm sure it's all there. You don't seem to be disagreeing with this point, anyway.

practical mom

Well I think the rest of the deficit was to do with reduced income, corporate and personal taxes, as well as increased costs, EI. I can buy that.

What I find strange is that the stimulus has ended, the jobs are back and the Canadian economy is the envy of the world. But much of the deficit is still there and will be for some time.

DPT

yes, largely due to the minority parliament. You know, the place where the opposition has more votes and can defeat legislation?

lgarvin

Yeah, the place where Harper passed a whole bunch of bills he wanted passed by making them matters of confidence? I remember it well.

There's no rube like a reusable rube.

J.D. Lees

New election means Harper is free to propose a new program. With a majority, he'll be able to get move faster on eliminating the deficit. After all, it was the Liberals and NDP who forced him into deficit in the first place. Give Harper a majority and then judge him. He's earned the chance to govern without the opposition threatening to bring him down every other week.

Just Joe

Just get back from the space station Rocketman?
LdKitchenersOwn

After all, it was the Liberals and NDP who forced him into deficit in the first place.

Don't tell Harper that, he's got signs all over the country taking credit for all of that spending. I don't think he wants it getting out that the only reason we got out of the recession and are doing so well now is that the opposition parties FORCED HIM to deal with the recession.
Patchouli

No he has not. Nor has he in any way tried to compromise with opposition parties. He's had 5 years and I'm well nigh sick of him, his lies, and his muzzled caucus.

Leo

Attrition and hiring/budget freezes is one of the ways they intend to save money without the huge layoffs that happened in the '90's. The target was $4 billion/year but they are still collecting plans from various departments how they will function with less staff/money.

Beyond the existence of a deficit, there are no strong parallels between Canada’s financial circumstances in the 1990s and the situation today. The 1990s marked the end of a long series of deficits that pushed the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 71%. By contrast, the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009 was 34%. The state of today’s economy is much more robust: Canada has climbed out of the global recession and is creating jobs. However, this recovery contributed in large measure to a $53.8 billion deficit. Among its first steps to address the deficit, the government has proposed freezing departmental operating budgets. Doing so could quite possibly lead to future reductions in the public service.
http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublic…
Sam Gunsch

- seems quite a useful question to post
- value re: accountability, transparency and the media doing its job
- seems to me it strengthens democracy
- does not seem partisan
albertaclipper

Why hasn't anyone put a cost to Iggy's book of fairy tales? I read today that it is well over 10 Billion Dollars. One reason I suppose is that he didn't cost the GST deal that he will put in after he becomes prime minister. Or maybe it will be Jack Layton or Gilles Duceppe if he comes in second. What a sight to see. Prime Minister Gilles Duceppe backed up by Jack Layton. And last but not least, Iggy and Zooozana checking through the Toronto airport back home to the USA.
rufusrastas

Something tells me that a majority Conservative government will have the bloated public service experience the recession that we in the private sector have experienced..Smaller government and keep your hands out of my pocket ,now thats change that I can believe in.
s_c_f

Look, you are being very disingenuous. Quarterly economic numbers come out every QUARTER. The release of the data happened between the time of the budget and the election campaign.

And it seems as though the conservatives have been working on new policy as well, so if they've decided to change course with their budget plans, what the heck is wrong with that? The budget was defeated so if they want to change direction they can!
Andrew (not PorC)

So, they'll be cutting 5% from military spending, for veterans and public spending? For ministry of Indian and northern affairs? And these won't be cuts in services?

Right. Dollars to donuts these savings don't materialize. Program cuts are a given.
chet

Why is the TSX, Dow, or Nasdaq not the "same" after 17 days?

Something's suspicious.

We all know the economy runs on a completely linear predictable plane.

When Nortel was a 120 a share, and that exact same company went down to 90 a share within a couple of weeks,

that must've been some CPC hocus pocus going on there.
Leslea

The only thing that's changed, is the lies Harper is spewing. Time to nix the worst liars from our political system. No more cons.
Anne Peterson

The Conference Board of Canada says in their annual report that we have sunk to 10th of 17 of western economies. If you don't believe me look it up. Don't know why the press hasn't picked up on this. They seem to be so conservatively biased they don't report things.
http://twitter.com/SWSaskOutcast @SWSaskOutcast

It's called ABC Abra Ca Dabbra!!
DeNuS

Somebody please tell Canadians the "actual cost" of "governing" our country.

Bet Harper will never cut that cost.
Mike T.

Good thing there's no responsibility in his position, if somebody had five years of econcomic predictions like Jim's I can't imagine what financial job they could actually hold down.
simon

Deficit ^ NOT !!!!!!!!!!

there that was easy!!