According to Mitchell Orenstein, a professor of European studies at Johns Hopkins University, countries that want Belarus to democratize should also keep open lines of communication to officials inside the country. Successful transitions to democracy are often negotiated, he says. The European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and more than 150 members of his regime. But there is another layer of power brokers below these men—military and government-linked business leaders, among others—who may eventually need to be engaged.
Whether outside powers can help guide democratic development in authoritarian regimes is increasingly relevant given recent and ongoing uprisings against dictatorships in the Middle East.
Sergei Grits/AP
There is the argument that freedom is more dearly held and protected when a country achieves it on its own. This is no doubt true. Yet Poles who lived through the country’s democratic transition say the support they received from the West during their own struggle against Soviet Communism was crucial. “Without this assistance, our changes wouldn’t go as successfully as they did,” says Kosiniak-Kamysz. “We prepared ourselves, for sure. But it’s like driving a train in one direction and then trying to go the opposite way. Sometimes people need advice.”
It’s not surprising that Poles were active supporters of recent mass uprisings in Ukraine and Georgia. Some Poles feel obligated by their country’s past. “Polish experience tells us very clearly that if this is the will of the people, everything can be achieved,” says Artur Michalski, head of the eastern policy department at Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to Ambassador Kosiniak-Kamysz, “Our example showed the world that the impossible was possible.”
Polish attempts to promote democracy abroad are spreading to the Middle East. Last year, the Freedom and Democracy Foundation co-operated with an American NGO to host a training session for 20 Egyptian opposition activists, bringing Egyptian trade unionists, politicians, lawyers and human rights workers to Poland to meet and strategize with veterans of Poland’s Solidarity movement. “We actually had lectures on how to organize big demonstrations,” says Pisula.
In the past, Egyptian authorities pressured activists to gather outside the downtown core of major cities, where demonstrations are not so disruptive and where state media can easily ignore them. But if you cannot guarantee media coverage, says Pisula, “then perhaps you should take the risk and congregate in one of the city squares so that traffic is stopped and the whole city is paralyzed. Then, if it is not covered by the media, eventually people will know that something is happening in the city.”
Pisula doubts the Poland conference had much impact on the recent revolution in Egypt. But he does recall the Egyptians in Poland discussing where in Cairo to hold a mass demonstration. In January, activists in that city took over Tahrir Square, shutting down Cairo and forcing the rest of the country and the world to pay attention. After 18 days, Hosni Mubarak, president for three decades, bowed to public pressure and resigned.
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