Categories: Andrew Coyne, Capital Read

Fascist takeover! Or else a Commalition! Consensus at last!

by Andrew Coyne on Monday, April 25, 2011 8:00pm - 96 Comments

All right, time for an updated roundup of the leading seat projections (with thanks to PunditsGuide for pointing out a couple I’d missed). The Fascists continue their remorseless march on the capital, with some projections having them already inside the gates. The Visitors, meanwhile, show no signs of coming back for anybody.

But the real story, of course, is the Commie insurgency: one particularly excitable forecaster, whose name I won’t Ekos, even predicts they will be leading a coalition government within the week. As always, the averages are a little more level-headed, with about 10 Traitors’ heads among the first to be leveled. Still no Ewocs sightings, however.

	Fascists	Visitors	Commies	Traitors	Ewocs	Hermits
Lispop	149	68	52	39	0	0
Ekos	131	62	100	14	0	1
308.com	151	75	36	45	0	1
ElectionAlmanac.com	143	78	48	39	0	0
Calgary Grit	158	64	42	42	0	0
DemocraticSpace.com	157	69	39	42	0	0
TooCloseToCall.ca	145	74	47	42	0	0
CdnElectionWatch	154	66	51	36	0	1
RidingByRiding.ca	144	62	64	37	0	1
The Mace	151	68	59	29	0	1
AVERAGE	147	68	55	36	0	1

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Phil_King

Crazy EKOS projection, but then Quebecers DO have a habit of rising up and delivering a democratic revolution every now and then. Having so many Canadians suddenly take the NDP seriously also gives other Canadians an excuse to shake things up, rather than cling tightly to their old voting habits. Could happen I suppose.

And since the Libs and Cons have spent the last five years detailing why the other is unfit for office… perhaps people are starting to believe them? LOL

Mr. King

The NDP seems to be taking off in La Belle Province, but let's keep in mind that "elections are not won by prayers." When Dief, Mulroney, and Bouchard creamed the competition in Quebec, they had the help of an established provincial political entity. The PQ is helping the Bloc, as ever, and Charest's Liberals aren't in a position to ask their people to help anyone even if they wanted to get behind Layton, so not all of that poll support will show up on May 2.

Layton Mania!

@tourist13- "At the end of the day, the NDP are a socialist party and will push for a socialist agenda. No thanks."
___________

At the end of the day, the Conservatives are a Fascists party and will push for a totalitarian agenda. No thanks!. LOL!.
Hedges

After thinking about this option for a while, I'm actually very much looking forward to the Harper/Ignatieff coalition government, with the NDP Opposition. Replace Flahrety with Goodale, and we should be alright!
loltzer

LOL at you
OriginalEmily1

I thought you said I made a living out of trashing the Cons.

Make up your mind Dennis….or are you that freaked??

PS…Iran??? Okay, maybe you are having a panic attack….I suggest a lie-down with a cold cloth.
john g

Frank Graves is on the record as saying that no pollster would ever commit professional and commercial suicide by falsifying or tweaking a poll to produce artificially high or low results.

However, those Ekos numbers look insane, and a mid election poll is the kind of thing that can never be verified. The parties all do their own internal polling…do the Conservatives look as worried as they would be if their polling was showing this result?

The only election poll anyone remembers when they are analyzed later is the last one. I'm willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that the last published EKOS poll before the cutoff will be within the MOE of all the others. Remains to be seen who will move to get there…but I'm betting its EKOS.
noob_goldberg

do the Conservatives look as worried as they would be if their polling was showing this result?

That's a good question, john g. I haven't been tracking Harper's speeches over the past few days, but it does sound like he's targeting Layton more than Ignatieff right now. Anyone confirm this?
http://www.pogge.ca Purple Library Guy

Actually, the Conservatives do look somewhat worried. Harper has been campaigning defensively in BC recently. Also, while pundits have been saying that the near-tie between NDP and Lib is good news for Harper, Harper has begun attacking the NDP fairly strongly. It seems he is feeling a threat; if his numbers were looking good and the NDP surge just creating vote splites, why would he interfere?
TimesArrow

Ignatieff is definitely worried. The con behaviour over the next few days should tell the tale. Could be the cons are just a little too smugly thinking that any future gains for the dippers have to come at the libs expense. I'm holding out for the perennial Harper gaffe of epic proprtions that usually occurs right about now.
noob_goldberg

At this point, I'm sure Ignatieff is beyond 'worry' and quite comfortably in "acceptance". It's been evident since the debate that this election was almost certainly not going to go his way, which means that he just gets to kill some time until the next leadership race, at which point he'll get to bow out quietly.

But you're right, I'm sure Harper will do something, like presume Layton's health troubles make him too weak to rule the country, that'll galvanize voters and prop up Orange support. Maybe he can get Duffy to write that speech for him.
john g

Think about it. Harper wants the NDP & Liberals at about the same value to maximize vote splitting. The Libs are flatlining and the NDP are surging. No surprise at all that Harper is trying to put the breaks on the NDP surge. I don't know that I would call this worry.
TimesArrow

It could well be if Graves is even close at all on those numbers. The libs are toast, but the tories might be going backward or at least stalled. If the orange crush is for real it might be tough to stop. People are sick of the cynicism – liberal or tory. The fact that Jack may not be able to pay for any of it is one that is oddly enough shared by all the parties; from Ignatieff's wishful thinking on actual CIT revenues to Harpers fairy tale deep cuts to the public service flab.
All the parties platforms are an exercize in creative accounting to some degree or other. Can anyone recall an election where all the principle parties were telling a tale of the olde Spanish trail with regard to costing?