The Commons: The faint sound of disagreement

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 6:20 PM - 66 Comments

The Scene. The Prime Minister stood and congratulated the leader of the opposition on his election. The leader of the opposition congratulated the Prime Minister on his election. In his front row seat, Tony Clement wrapped his arms around himself and mimed a hug to celebrate this new spirit of mutual appreciation.

The civility that we were promised—and which everyone is now monitoring with the sort of close attention and nervous anticipation usually reserved for the rescue of Chilean miners or small children from holes in the ground—is now almost entirely insipid. Newly elected members and newly appointed ministers are applauded for simply existing. Everyone claps for everything and everyone. David Anderson was widely saluted today for apologizing after suggesting that a member opposite had made a “fool of himself.” It is like being in a kindergarten classroom where encouragement and self-esteem and positive affirmation are paramount.

This Decorous Era achieved total farce this afternoon when Conservative parliamentary secretary Shelly Glover thanked one of her opposition critics for their re-election. “Mr. Speaker, I want to thank my colleague once again for returning to this House,” Ms. Glover said of New Democrat Irene Mathyssen. Presumably she meant to congratulate. Hopefully we will soon enough be sufficiently reacquainted with each other that even that seems unnecessary.

In the meantime, this place remains mostly concerned with serious matters of public policy. And whatever this may lack in salaciousness, it does at least allow members of different parties to acknowledge their critical views of each other’s intentions. Continue…

From Movies to TV and Back Again

By Jaime Weinman - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 5:02 PM - 0 Comments

Another day, another article about feature film directors doing television. There have been a couple of others lately. Scorsese doing Boardwalk Empire and Michael Mann returning to television to direct Luck have really raised awareness of features-to-TV directorial crossover, though it’s been going on for years; I myself wrote a piece about it way back in the ancient days of 2007.

I didn’t think then, and don’t think now, that most directors go to television to get the creative freedom they can’t have in movies. (The L.A. Times article suggests that television now offers “deeper character development and edgier story lines” than blockbuster movies, which is a type of TV triumphalism that seems a few years behind the times: last year was the year filmgoers drove character-driven movies profitable again.) Most of these directors would have more autonomy on even a bad movie, where they are much more likely to help shape the script and change things as they go. Though Michael Mann got more autonomy on Luck than a pilot director usually gets, it’s nothing like what he has on his own movies or the TV series he produced. As Mann says in the article, David Milch is the “captain of the ship,” which makes the pilot director what he or she always is in television: a hired hand. There’s a lot the director can do to make a show better or worse, but it’s not the same as making his or her own film, especially since the point of any pilot is to create a visual template which other directors will then follow – and on the lower budgets that the post-pilot episodes will have. If the director imposes too much of a visual personality, then it won’t work because it won’t be something other, less famous people can copy.

The exception is something like The Borgias, which is actually Neil Jordan’s creation. And as he notes, he emphasized his writer side more than his director side in coming up with the show, writing the entire first season by Continue…

Bruins’ Horton and Canucks' Rome out for rest of final

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 4:52 PM - 4 Comments

Boston Bruins’ Nathan Horton suffered a severe concussion last night when Vancouver Canucks defenceman Aaron Rome laid a massive hit on the starting forward, only five minutes into the first period. Neither player will skate again in the Stanley Cup Finals—Horton due to injury and Rome due to a 4-game suspension handed down by league officials. If the series ends before game 7, the suspension overlaps into next season. The NHL’s senior vice president of hockey operations, Mike Murphy, told the press on Tuesday that Rome’s punishment was based on two factors: the hit was delivered too late (Horton had already released the puck) and the injury that followed was very serious. Horton will end his season with 70 points, 17 of them made during the playoffs.

National Post

Photo gallery: Fleet Week 2011 in NYC

By Zoran Milich - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 4:34 PM - 0 Comments

Fleet Week is a festival built around the docking of U.S. military ships in a major city and featuring a variety of demonstrations of military gear and techniques. This year’s event in New York City ran from May 25 to June 1.

Listening to Afghans

By Andrew Potter - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 4:26 PM - 12 Comments

Fawzia Koofi signing books at the Taj Banquet Hall, Toronto. Photo by Andrew Potter.

A few years ago, the Canadian novelist Yann Martel embarked on a project he called “What is Stephen Harper reading?” For as long as Harper was prime minister, Martel vowed to send him a book, every two weeks, accompanied by a letter explaining why he thought Harper should read the book.  I really disliked the project; I thought it was a smug little exercise built around the prissy conceit that Harper lacked “stillness.” Nevertheless, Martel’s idea was in the front of my mind last week, as I found myself sitting a table in a banquet hall in the north-east reaches of Toronto. If there is one book I’d like to press into Harper’s hands, and sit on him while he reads it, it is Letters to my Daughters, by the Afghan member of parliament Fawzia Koofi.

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Fourth PQ defector blasts Pauline Marois

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 4:04 PM - 0 Comments

A fourth Parti Québécois member resigned on Tuesday in reaction to Leader Pauline Marois’ continued failure to achieve sovereignty, and her unpopular decision to support a private-member’s bill favouring a $400-million sports arena proposal. Jean-Marc Aussant—the latest MNA to step down—says Marois is not capable, nor interested, in achieving sovereignty. The beleaguered leader held a meeting on Tuesday with the 48 members remaining in her caucus, to alleviate further dissent. Two PQ MNAs—Claude Cousineau and Sylvain Pagé—demanded Marois reopen the sports arena bill to a free vote. If more members resign, she may have to forfeit her leadership. Some say former Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe would take her place.

The Globe and Mail

There's a new sheriff in town

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 3:44 PM - 11 Comments

In responding this afternoon to a question from the NDP’s Pat Martin, Conservative David Anderson suggested that Mr. Martin had, in the past, made a “fool of himself.”

At this the Speaker cut Mr. Anderson off and called on the next questioner to rise.

After Question Period, Mr. Anderson rose on a point of order and apologized. This was duly applauded by members on all sides.

The health care debate Stephen Harper is ready to have

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 12:46 PM - 100 Comments

For those interested in a health care debate ahead of impending federal-provincial negotiations, the Harper government seems keen to start the discussion on their terms. Or rather, their term.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, May 18.

I do think that the public wants to understand better from all governments how the amounts of money we’re putting into health care are going to lead to better outcomes, greater accountability for results.

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U.S. EPA announces "environmental objections" to oil sands pipeline

By Luiza Ch. Savage - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 12:32 PM - 13 Comments

The US Environmental Protection Agency has sent a letter to the State Department raising “environmental objections” to  TransCanada’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline that would carry crude oil from the Alberta oil sands through the American Midwest to refineries on the Gulf Coast. The State Department is considering whether or not to issue a permit for the pipeline, which has the support of the Alberta and Canadian governments.

(The letter is in response to the State Department’s Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement. The supplemental was issued after the EPA criticized the first EIS as inadequate. But the EPA says that State again did not provide sufficient analysis in its supplemental EIS.)

In yesterday’s letter, the EPA said that it has “environmental objections” to the Keystone XL project.

(The “environmental objections” rating is explained on page 8 of the letter — out of 4 possible rankings, this is the second-most negative and requires either “corrective measures” or “alternative actions” to be taken.)

The EPA says it has concerns about pipeline safety and spills, impacts on nearby communities, and greenhouse gas emissions, among others.

The full letter is here.

Meanwhile, yesterday the State Dept. said it would hold six additional field hearings on the proposed pipeline — something environmentalists had been asking for.  The move is a disappointment to House Republicans who have been urging the Obama administration to fast-track the project both as a means to “energy security” and as way to create construction jobs in the US. (They even introduced a bill that would require the administration to reach a permit decision by Nov. 1. State has said it will make a decision by the end of 2011.)

The letter comes after the US pipeline safety regulator ordered the existing Keystone pipeline shut down on Friday after a series of leaks. It was allowed to reopen the next day.

Environmentalists were encouraged by the EPA’s letter:

“With this rating, the EPA is standing up for the people who would be hurt by the Keystone XL pipeline, including Midwest farmers and low-income people around Texas refineries,” said Alex Moore, dirty fuels campaigner at Friends of the Earth. “All eyes are on Secretary of State Clinton. Will she comply with the law and ensure that these impacts are studied or not?”

Meanwhile, Andrew Leach argues at the Globe and Mail’s website that the pipeline’s potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions is being overstated.

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On Twitter at luizachsavage

Robert Mitchum Hates Himself For Being Here

By Jaime Weinman - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 12:31 PM - 7 Comments

Phil Rosenthal, in his memoir and most recently in his podcast interview with Marc Maron, likes to talk about his first writing job in Hollywood. It was on a sitcom called A Family For Joe, starring Robert Mitchum as a homeless man who is recruited by a family of adorable orphans to pose as their grandfather so they won’t be taken away by child services. (I wrote that description several ways, and in none of them did it sound like anything but a parody of bad family-friendly television. Insensitive take on the hot-button issue of homelessness + killing people’s parents to set up a comedy with family-friendly lessons? Yes, it’s 1990 all right.) He talks a lot about how bad the show was, how it de-fanged Mitchum from the very first shot, how nobody on set seemed to know or care about Mitchum’s glorious career. But I’d never seen the thing until someone put up a few episodes on YouTube. Then I discovered the show not only had Mitchum, but a young Ben Savage and a young Juliette Lewis – who a couple of years later would be in Cape Fear, a remake of one of Mitchum’s movies.

It’s every bit as bad as Rosenthal’s description makes it sound, so the one thing to enjoy is how much Mitchum clearly does not love the adorable orphans and how completely he signals his boredom with the whole thing. Rosenthal says that he tried to introduce The Night of the Hunter to the cast and crew and was depressed when they laughed at it. But the show itself only works if you assume Mitchum is really playing the same guy from Night of the Hunter and is plotting to murder all these people after the cheesy synth music dies down and the credits roll.

Canadian troops wrap up final combat mission in Kandahar

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 11:49 AM - 1 Comment

Canadian forces operating in Afghanistan’s volatile Kandahar province have completed their final combat operation in the region. Planned and executed by the Afghan National Army, the Canadians played a supporting role in the two-week long mission, where they advanced through the countryside, searching homes and meeting with elders. Even though Canada’s final combat operation is complete, members of the Royal 22nd Regiment will still be conducting routine patrols in the area, exposing themselves to improvised explosive devices and sporadic attacks by the Taliban. All of Canada’s combat troops are schedule to withdraw from Kandahar this summer, where Canadians have been based for over five years. Canadian forces are set to take on a non-combat role in Afghanistan, helping to train the Afghan army in Kabull. NATO troops are slated to withdraw completely by 2014.

The Globe and Mail

New treatments for skin cancer emerge

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 11:38 AM - 0 Comments

Patients with advanced skin cancer may benefit from two new drugs unveiled at a meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago, the BBC reports. A pill named Vemurafenib, which was tested on 675 patients with advanced melanoma, seems to improve chances of survival longer than chemotherapy, while another intravenous drug called Ipilimumab is expected to give extra years of life. In a trial, 84 per cent of patients who took Vemurafenib twice a day were still alive six months later, compared to 64 per cent on standard chemotherapy, and the drug reduced the risk of the disease worsening by 74 per cent, compared with chemotherapy. Both drugs could be available to patients in the U.K. within months subject to approval.

BBC News

Poor oversight may have contributed to Fukushima crisis

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 11:14 AM - 1 Comment

In a new report submitted to the IAEA, the Japanese government says it was unprepared for a nuclear accident on the scale of the one that occurred in March at the Fukushima nuclear plant, and that poor oversight may have contributed to the crisis, the BBC reports. Authorities have pledged to make their nuclear regulator, Nisa, independent of the industry ministry, which is responsible for promoting nuclear power. Nisa doubled its original estimate of how much radiation was leaked in the first week of the crisis, saying that 770,000 terabecquerels escaped into the atmosphere, up from its earlier statement of 370,000 terabecquerels. Three months later, the Fukushima Daiichi plant is still leaking radioactive material. The government plans a cold shutdown of the plant by January.

BBC News

Residents of Syrian town prepare for government assault

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 11:10 AM - 0 Comments

Residents of the Syrian town of Jisr al-Shughour are bracing for an expected assault by government forces, after “armed gangs” in the town killed 120 government security personnel on Tuesday, according to Syrian state television. Residents told the BBC while many are fleeing, others are setting up checkpoints and barriers in the streets as the Syrian army advances with tanks and helicopters. Activists in Syria admit the cause of the deaths is unclear, but they insist that the uprising against the Syrian government is peaceful. Jisr al-Shughour is situated just 20 km from the Turkish border. Already, dozens of Syrians have crossed into Turkey and are being treated in hospitals for wounds they allege were inflicted by Syrian security forces. Speaking in Washington, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said his government is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution condemning the actions of the Syrian government, and urging the country to allow humanitarian aid into its cities.

BBC News

Hackers plant fake news story on Tory website

By macleans.ca - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:53 AM - 10 Comments

Hackers planted a bogus news story on the Conservative Party’s website that said Prime Minister Stephen Harper was rushed to hospital on Tuesday morning after chocking on a hash brown at breakfast. “Clearly somebody hacked our website,” spokesperson Dimitri Soudas told the CBC. “The prime minister actually took his daughter to school this morning.” The fake news quickly made an impact on Twitter and had people talking in Ottawa. The story said Harper choked during breakfast with his family, and that his wife, Laureen, called 911. It also said that a member of his security staff administered first aid before he was airlifted to a hospital in Toronto. Soudas said the prime minister is doing fine and that he is in Ottawa on Tuesday morning.

CBC News

Standing up to bad boys like Schwarzenegger and Strauss-Kahn

By Anne Kingston - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:45 AM - 5 Comments

Cancan Chu/Getty Images

On May 17, the same day the Los Angeles Times broke the story that Arnold Schwarzenegger fathered a child with a long-time employee, his estranged wife Maria Shriver was in Chicago, taping the penultimate episode of Oprah Winfrey’s talk show. As the audience cheered, she took the stage to thank Winfrey for her friendship while making a not-so-subtle dig at her husband’s stunning duplicity: “You’ve given me love, support, wisdom, and most of all…the truth.” Winfrey clasped Shriver’s hand, thrust it in the air and cried, “Here’s to the truth!”

It was a classic Oprah moment, perfectly calibrated to the trend of rich and powerful philanderers getting their comeuppance. If Shriver had plotted to orchestrate a public up-yours toward her husband of 25 years, she couldn’t have chosen a more ideal platform. Days later the allegation arrived that she had done just that: TMZ.com reported Shriver herself had leaked the Schwarzenegger story to the Times—a historic moment for a woman born into the Kennedy family, a political dynasty where wives appear hard-wired to ignore infidelities.

For years, Shriver followed that script as rumours swirled about Schwarzenegger’s cheating and sexual assaults. A 2001 Premiere magazine exposé, “Arnold the Barbarian,” claimed the action hero routinely grabbed women’s breasts in some sort of Neanderthal greeting, and repeatedly forced unwanted physical contact. In 2003, on the eve of the California gubernatorial election, six women came forward in the L.A. Times alleging that Schwarzenegger had engaged in sexual bullying and assault dating back decades. Shriver rose to his defence publicly, discrediting his accusers and calling her husband an “A-plus human being,” a validation credited with securing his first landslide victory.

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The new Speaker, Starbucks and ice cream

By Mitchel Raphael - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:33 AM - 5 Comments

While Andrew Scheer (below) became the new Speaker, other Conservatives tried their best to win over votes.

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Merv Tweed had cups of Starbucks coffee with his face on them. Rod Bruinooge (below) helps hand out the java jolt.

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Sarah Palin's long road back

By Luiza Ch. Savage - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:20 AM - 1 Comment

Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Keystone Press

Sarah Palin has burst back onto the national stage at the time when her brand of combative, small-government conservatism is reeling from its first political defeat of the Obama era, when Republicans lost what was considered a safe seat in a byelection where Medicare reform was a major issue.

Clad in a black leather jacket, the former Alaska governor and Tea Party darling rumbled through Washington over the Memorial Day weekend on the back of a Harley-Davidson, part of Rolling Thunder, an annual motorcycle rally to honour fallen troops, and then posed for pictures with burly men in leather vests and tattoos. Her tour of the northeastern U.S. has included a viewing of the U.S. Constitution at the National Archives, the estate of the first president, George Washington, at Mount Vernon, and battlefields of the Civil War.

A regular all-American family vacation? Maybe, albeit one in a tour bus emblazoned with images of the Liberty Bell, the Declaration of Independence, Alaskan mountains, and the words from the Pledge of Allegiance, tied together by the theme of “fundamentally restoring our country.” Restoring it from what? Presumably the Obama presidency. At a stop in Fort McHenry, site of an American victory in the War of 1812, Palin rebuked Barack Obama, who called the U.S. military “one of the finest fighting forces the world has ever known.” Said Palin, “It’s not just one of the greatest fighting forces. And I sure hope our President recognizes that. We’re not just one of many. We are the best.”

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The structural deficit that dare not speak its name

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:18 AM - 31 Comments

Stephen Gordon sees yesterday’s budget as an implicit acknowledgement of a structural deficit.

Many commentators have suggested that the structural deficit was created by increased spending, so spending cuts are the appropriate remedy. I don’t see how this hypothesis fits the data, and the fact that the necessary spending cuts have yet to be specified suggests to me that there’s no expensive new program that can be blamed for the structural component of the deficit.

It’s much easier to tell a story (here and here) in which the cuts to the GST are the cause of the federal structural deficit.

Prepare for TV chaos

By Chris Sorensen - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 10:15 AM - 4 Comments

Mario Tama/Getty Images

A stock analyst once called Reed Hastings’s company, Netflix Inc., “a worthless piece of crap with really nice people.” That was six years ago. Hastings and his agreeable team have since helped kneecap video-rental giant Blockbuster by convincing Americans that it was easier to rent DVDs through Netflix’s website, and then have them delivered (and returned, postage paid) through the mail. Now Netflix is in the process of upending the entire television business by using the Internet to stream movies and TV shows directly to people’s computers and big-screen televisions via Web-connected Blu-ray players, Xboxes and other devices. So much for Mr. Nice Guy.

Netflix has so far signed up more than 24 million customers in the United States, rivalling the subscriber base of cable giant Comcast. Hastings expects to add another one million Canadian subscribers by this summer, with each one paying $7.99 a month for unlimited access to Netflix’s ballooning catalogue of digital titles. And the stock price? It’s far from worthless, having surged more than 800 per cent over the past five years—a better performance than even Apple Inc.’s.

Not surprisingly, cable and satellite TV executives are getting nervous—Comcast’s CEO recently derided Netflix as “reruns TV,” referring to its lack of live content. And Hastings isn’t doing much to soothe fears when he describes Netflix’s potential customer base as one that goes well beyond existing cable or satellite subscribers. “One way to think about the upper limit is the number of people who have a mobile phone,” Hastings told Maclean’s. “That’s because they’re people with enough money, and are of the right age to own a device with a screen.”

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In conversation: Peter Milliken

By John Geddes - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 9:30 AM - 2 Comments

Photographs by Blair Gable

When the House of Commons resumes sitting this week, the first order of business for MPs will be electing a new Speaker. It will seem strange not to have Liberal Peter Milliken striving to keep order from the big chair. Milliken, 64, didn’t stand for re-election in his Kingston, Ont., riding this spring, ending his record decade-long run as Speaker. Maclean’s spoke to him in the elegant wood-panelled office he’s now leaving, sitting under a large framed print of Yousuf Karsh’s famous wartime portrait photo of Winston Churchill, which was taken on that very spot.

Q: When did you first become interested in the goings-on of the House of Commons?

A: The first visit I remember would have been in Grade 7 or 8. After I got into high school, my cousin John Matheson got elected from Leeds, right next door to Kingston. Once I got my driver’s licence, I started to come up to visit. He told me I could subscribe to Hansard and I started in 1962. I might have been 16. It was that period when I started following what went on in the House.

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They love you when you're gone

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 9:05 AM - 14 Comments

Before Question Period yesterday, Bob Rae stood to salute all those who sought office in the last election, with special attention given to his predecessor as Liberal leader.

We all know that trying to represent our constituents is one of the great honours and pleasures of our own lives, but above all we have to reflect on those who fought so hard and who were not returned or who waited for another occasion to be returned. In that spirit, I would like, on this, my first statement as interim leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, to pay particular tribute to my former leader Mr. Michael Ignatieff, the former member for Etobicoke—Lakeshore, who served in this House with great distinction and who served the people of Canada with great ability. I know he will continue to go on to great public service as he did before he came to this place and as he will afterwards.

Both Conservatives and New Democrats stood to applaud this.

The Commons: Opening salvos, politely spoken

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, June 6, 2011 at 6:20 PM - 50 Comments

The Scene. Buttoning his jacket preemptively, Jack Layton did not bother to contain his grin as he looked up at the Speaker in anticipation of an invitation to stand.

Indeed, here the Speaker announced that the House had arrived at the time set aside for oral questions and called on the leader of the opposition to begin. And here Mr. Layton, having earned this hallowed and cursed title, thus stood to bask in the applause of his bountiful caucus.

When the ovation had subsided, he congratulated the Prime Minister and the members opposite on their recent election results. And yet, he noted, something like 60% of Canadians had not voted for a Conservative government.

“Ahh,” groaned various government members at Mr. Layton’s insistence on math.

The Prime Minister, Mr. Layton continued, had promised to work with all members of the House. But, in Mr. Layton’s estimation, the Speech from the Throne had failed to reflect this turn toward sweetness and light. “Where,” Mr. Layton wondered aloud, “is the government’s willingness to work with others?”

As if to demonstrate his own commitment to a new, more civil, House of Commons, the Prime Minister had excused himself from this day of normal business so that he might view the flooding in Quebec. In his place stood Peter Van Loan, that universally revered champion of noble discourse. Continue…

Can Obama escape those unemployment numbers?

By John Parisella - Monday, June 6, 2011 at 5:17 PM - 7 Comments

The latest U.S. job creation numbers are disappointing, as unemployment hit 9.1% with only 54,000 new jobs created in May. They’re especially discouraging when contrasted with the 244,000 new jobs that emerged in April. President Obama had trouble hiding his disappointment when he talked about ‘bumps in the road,’ while visiting a Chrysler auto plant last week to highlight the domestic auto-manufacturing comeback following its bailout. His spokespeople emphasized that over 2 million private sector jobs were created in the past 15 months. Yet, it’s hard to overlook the fact that 13.9 million Americans are still out of work and 45% have been unemployed for more than six months.

Republican presidential candidates and critics have labeled Obama’s efforts on the economy a failure. His supporters counter by pointing to the belief by many economists that the 2009 stimulus saved nearly 2 to 3 million jobs and the TARP program brought back financial stability.

Obama’s administration has also argued that it has, admittedly with the GOP’s help, produced other ‘stimulus’ measures by reducing payroll taxes, signing free trade agreements (ratification to come) and establishing a task force to reduce business related regulations. It is becoming obvious, however, that the GOP wants to make the next general election a referendum on Obama’s economic policies.

With polls showing a majority disapproving of Obama’s handling of the economy, Republican candidates—such as potential frontrunner Mitt Romney—see a bone to gnaw at and will use it as a way to pin the economic woes of the nation on Obama. Will it work? Can the Republicans extend their midterm success in capturing the House of Representatives to one of winning the presidency?

If the unemployment numbers inch up towards 10%, they may have a point. Even prominent Democrats like Howard Dean admit that the economy could be the deciding factor. Already, pundits refer to the figure of 7.2% unemployment as a ceiling: no incumbent has ever been re-elected when the figure was higher. And the way thing are going, it’s unlikely that the current recovery will result in a figure in the vicinity of 7.2% by election time. That means if Obama wins, it will be with the highest unemployment figure in history.

So, is the economy the only issue that will determine how voters will choose in 2012? True, the economy may have led Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush to becoming one-term presidents, but that would be ignoring other factors that contributed to their defeats. Carter had over 400 hostages in Iranian hands for over a year and seemed helpless in asserting U.S. power. And Bush lost in large part because Ross Perot earned 19% of the popular vote as an independent candidate (Clinton won the 1992 election with only 42%).

Candidates are scrutinized for how they handle their ‘hard’ power responsibilities (the economy and national security) and their ‘soft’ power duties (Can he be trusted? Will he keep us safe? Does he have his priorities straight?). So far, polls are indicating that Obama is very competitive on ‘hard’ power issues and the current deficit and debt battle indicate he has some advantages regarding taxing the top 1% of earners and preserving Medicare from being a voucher-directed program a la Paul Ryan. The killing of Osama Bin Laden was also a boon to his national security credentials.

On the ‘soft ‘power front, Obama’s personal favourables remain high. People like the man and his family. They seem to acknowledge his intelligence and find his coolness under pressure reassuring. They also understand that he inherited two wars, not of his making, and the worst economy since the Great Depression. Finally, Americans remain proud of choosing the first African American president, they want him to succeed, and a majority currently wish him to be reelected.

It is obviously too early to predict the outcome of the next campaign. Suffice it to say that unless there is a second recession in 4 years, Obama may have a chance to be evaluated beyond issues of the economy.