Beyond The Commons

Beyond The Commons

Aaron Wherry covers all the goings-on in and around Parliament Hill. Follow Aaron on Twitter: @aaronwherry

How much longer in Libya?

by Aaron Wherry on Tuesday, July 26, 2011 2:49pm - 5 Comments

At the outset of the Libyan mission, the Prime Minister ventured a prediction of Colonel Moammar Gadhafi’s impending fate.

“He simply will not last very long,” Harper said. “I think that is the basis on which we’re moving forward. If I am being frank here, that is probably more understood than spoken aloud. But I just said it aloud.”

That was more than four months ago. Yesterday, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs used the term “stalemate” to describe the situation.

Certainly, I have been impressed with what NATO has done here, how fast it got together with the pressure that it’s brought on Qadhafi. It’s dramatically attritted his forces, his major forces. That said, there’s still plenty of challenges associated with the regime forces who have adjusted – that’s not a surprise – adjusted to the opposition tactics, and we are generally in a stalemate. Although with the strikes over time, Qadhafi’s forces are continuing to be attritted and additional pressure has been brought.

The Atlantic Wire summarized the situation two weeks ago. Bruce Crumley now wonders if the goal of the mission is now changing.

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  • Anonymous

    Govts have got to stop believing in ‘cakewalks’.

  • TonyAdams

    I wonder what Adm. Mullen really thinks. American Adm. can’t seriously be impressed with NATO’s efforts so far because it is pretty embarrassing that Gadhafi has not been assassinated yet and rebel forces are standing around with thumbs up their arses. 

    Q: How much longer in Libya?
    A: How long is a piece of string?

    • Anonymous

      The operation was not tasked to take out Gadhafi. 

      • TonyAdams

        Operation is working perfectly than, apparently.

        Daily Telegraph:

        With the onset of Ramadan rapidly approaching (it is due to start on Monday, depending on the visibility of the new moon), Gaddafi’s intransigence has seen the coalition resort to ever more desperate measures. This includes the French supplying arms to the rebels – a clear breach of UN resolutions – and the Americans sending a secret delegation to persuade Gaddafi to surrender.

        The reality is that, unless there is a dramatic change by this weekend, the military campaign will run into the sand: with the entire Libyan population observing a strict Ramadan fast, neither Nato nor the rebels will be able to make a decisive breakthrough. So the most likely outcome of the conflict will be Gaddafi retaining control of Tripoli and its environs, and Nato’s credibility lying in tatters.

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8663293/The-Libyan-campaign-is-running-into-the-sand.html

      • TonyAdams

        Operation is working perfectly than, apparently.

        Daily Telegraph:

        With the onset of Ramadan rapidly approaching (it is due to start on Monday, depending on the visibility of the new moon), Gaddafi’s intransigence has seen the coalition resort to ever more desperate measures. This includes the French supplying arms to the rebels – a clear breach of UN resolutions – and the Americans sending a secret delegation to persuade Gaddafi to surrender.

        The reality is that, unless there is a dramatic change by this weekend, the military campaign will run into the sand: with the entire Libyan population observing a strict Ramadan fast, neither Nato nor the rebels will be able to make a decisive breakthrough. So the most likely outcome of the conflict will be Gaddafi retaining control of Tripoli and its environs, and Nato’s credibility lying in tatters.

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8663293/The-Libyan-campaign-is-running-into-the-sand.html

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