The GOP race is over

By John Parisella - Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 5:39 PM - 0 Comments

Mitt Romney ended the New Hampshire primary with a decisive—albeit expected—victory and has a strong chance to win the January 21 primary in South Carolina as well. His purportedly strongest opponents in South Carolina—Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry—have little or no momentum and are unlikely to cause an upset at this stage. After just one week of primaries, only one first-tier candidate remains and that is Romney.

Last night, Mitt Romney spoke like he was already the nominee. He spoke early, was on message and delivered a blistering attack against President Obama. The highly scripted candidate knows it’s over for the nomination, and he wanted to convey the aura of a prospective president.

Mark this one as a victory for establishment Republicans over the Republican base. It shows that the GOP remains an electoral force and that it will ultimately choose a candidate that can appeal beyond the party’s base when it comes to a presidential contest. That lesson was learned back in 1964, when the GOP went outside the mainstream to pick Barry Goldwater and lost in a landslide.

Sure, the party has very vocal factions and can sometimes appear very divided. As we have seen in this campaign, Newt Gingrich has an unrivaled capacity for confrontational politics, while Ron Paul has a similar affinity for fringe politics politics. But while a different candidate kept emerging to challenge the inevitability of Romney’s nomination, the former Massachusetts governor kept accumulating endorsements, strengthening his organization, and raking in money. Continue…

Who is the real Mitt Romney?

By John Parisella - Monday, January 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM - 0 Comments

With a squeaker of a win in Iowa over a late-surging Rick Santorum, an all-but-assured victory looming in the New Hampshire primary, and growing support in South Carolina, Mitt Romney will finally face the scrutiny that comes with being a presidential candidate. Romney can expect his political record as governor in Massachusetts and his professional career at Bain Capital to be inspected under a more critical light. We may finally learn the answer to the question so many Republicans have been asking: who is the real Mitt Romney?

The prevailing narrative from Romney’s Republican opponents is that he is too moderate for the conservative movement. He is portrayed as a blue-stater with a penchant for compromise, a man who would fraternize with the likes of the Ted Kennedy. As a result, despite polls showing his relative electability against Obama, Romney’s popularity is stuck at 25 per cent among GOP fervents. He is steady, but unloved. Continue…

2011: the Republicans’ annus horribilis

By John Parisella - Saturday, December 31, 2011 at 10:23 AM - 0 Comments

On the eve of 2011, the GOP was reaping the benefits of the biggest turnaround in political fortunes in recent history when it recaptured the House of Representatives from the Democrats and reduced the Democratic majority in the Senate to three votes. There was hope total control of Congress was one election away. And why not dream of the trifecta and making Barack Obama a one-term president? This past year had opened with the expectation the GOP was back and that it would lead the political agenda throughout 2011.

Indeed, the year got off to a good start for the Republicans, who provoked showdowns on a potential government shutdown in the spring and on the debt ceiling in the summer, gaining significant concessions from the president in the process. Obama appeared weak and his poll numbers suffered. In so doing, the GOP had shifted the focus of political conversation toward government spending, the size of government, and the need to rein in the debt.

Meantime, the economic recovery continued to be anemic and the sovereign debt problems occurring within the Euro Zone underscored the need for drastic new directions in economic policy. Comparisons with Greece were often used by Republican politicians to force Obama to back down. As a result, with the exception of the killing of Bin Laden in April, Obama has been on the defensive all year. Until this December, that is. Continue…

Is this Obama’s defining moment going into 2012?

By John Parisella - Friday, December 23, 2011 at 2:33 PM - 0 Comments

The payroll tax cut controversy is providing President Obama with a moment similar to the government shutdown confrontation between President Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich in 1996, which most observers credit for Clinton’s successful re-election campaign in 1996. Back then Speaker Gingrich refused to vote for appropriations to keep the government in operation in order to force government reductions in spending programs , giving Clinton the choice to either capitulate or allow the government shutdown. He chose the latter and Gingrich got the blame. It became a test of strength and leadership on the part of the president. It was a defining moment for his presidency and his re-election the following year.

The Senate last weekend voted to extend both the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits for two months. Granted, Obama got less than he wanted—he wanted one year and wanted to tax millionaires to pay for it—but he is winning the debate on middle class tax relief. Senate Republicans understood that and joined their Democratic counterparts in voting for the measure. The House, in later rejecting the deal, showed that Tea Party intransigence still has a hold on the Republican caucus and could give Obama an edge as the election year begins in earnest in the New Year. Continue…

McCain, Obama, and Iraq

By John Parisella - Monday, December 19, 2011 at 4:52 PM - 0 Comments

Last week, Senator John McCain celebrated the end of the war in Iraq by lauding the sacrifice of thousands of American soldiers and crowning the surge led by current CIA Director General David Petraeus back in 2007 as its most important moment. But McCain wasn’t so kind when referring to the man overseeing the withdrawal of troops. He concluded his remarks by chastising Barack Obama for playing domestic politics by withdrawing all U.S. troops from Iraqi soil without leaving a residual force, and said history will judge the president’s leadership with “the scorn and disdain it deserves.” This was quite a fierce statement by the former presidential contender .

The end of U.S. military involvement in Iraq should have been a good news story, one in which a cruel dictator was overthrown and replaced by some semblance of democracy. Having the troops home for the holidays was certainly grounds for a more measured disagreement. Continue…

Why Gingrich is unlikely to make Romney a better candidate

By John Parisella - Thursday, December 8, 2011 at 4:48 PM - 0 Comments

One general conclusion that can be drawn from the 2008 Democratic primaries is that Hilary Clinton made Barack Obama a stronger candidate going into the presidential election. Just prior to the primaries in 2008, Clinton had a double-digit lead over Obama, just like the one Newt Gingrich now has over Mitt Romney in some key states. But by the end of January of 2008, Obama had split the early primaries and was leading Hillary in delegate count. The rest, of course, is history.

Is it possible that scenario could repeat itself in this year’s Republican race, with Romney getting a second wind thanks to a long, drawn out struggle with a formidable rival? Romney’s people are starting to spin it that way, as Romney is suddenly becoming more aggressive and more accessible; the hope remains that Gingrich will implode over the course of a protracted race. (The Republicans have changed their rules about winning delegates since 2008 and it is likely that the GOP race will be a drawn out contest similar to the one the Democrats had in 2008. In fact, some are still holding out hope a new candidate will emerge later.) Continue…

Why Gingrich is a real threat to Romney

By John Parisella - Monday, December 5, 2011 at 7:04 PM - 0 Comments

First, there was Donald Trump. Then came Michelle Bachmann and Herman Cain. Later, there was Rick Perry, and now Newt Gingrich. Through it all, support for Mitt Romney has been steady and he continues to do well in a matchup against President Obama. But the picture could soon be changing as we near caucus and primary season. Late challenges can be hazardous to a consistent frontrunner if he fails to develop traction, as seems to be the case with Romney.

With Herman Cain dropping out (‘suspending’ is a misnomer) and expected to endorse a former rival (Newt?), it is now clear that Mitt Romney will face another big challenge for the nomination. Unlike Trump, Cain, Perry, and Bachman, who were weak contenders, Gingrich is a force. He is experienced, occasionally ruthless, and appears much stronger on policy matters than Romney.

Gingrich is currently leading in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, where he could close the gap with a victory in Iowa. He is also leading in both South Carolina and Florida. Should these poll results translate into actual votes for Gingrich in the early stages of the primary, Romney will have difficulty recovering. Continue…

Clouds gather over Romney in New Hampshire

By John Parisella - Monday, November 28, 2011 at 8:45 PM - 0 Comments

We’re about six weeks away from the New Hampshire primary and already the Republican race may be shaping up to surprise even the most astute observer. The Manchester Union Leader has endorsed Newt Gingrich over the frontrunner and part-time New Hampshire resident Mitt Romney. This is all the more surprising when you consider Gingrich’s campaign was on life support just a few weeks ago. Gingrich also leads in the latest poll out of Iowa, a state known for its social conservative bias.

I have been on the ground in New Hampshire for the last three primary seasons and for the 2004 presidential election. New Hampshire should not be taken lightly when the game is about performing against expectations. The expectation is that Romney must win big or else his campaign could lose the needed momentum for South Carolina and Florida, and therefore end up in serious trouble. Continue…

Is Obama the winner so far of the GOP nomination race?

By John Parisella - Monday, November 21, 2011 at 5:12 PM - 0 Comments

Once again, a new anybody-but-Mitt-Romney candidate has surged in the Republican polls. This time, it is former Speaker Newt Gingrich. After surviving onslaughts from Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, you would think Mitt Romney might start seeing some daylight and begin to build the support he’ll need to capture the nomination. He is the candidate with the best match-up numbers against Obama, so you would expect the Republican base to begin to see the advantages of Romney as the nominee. Instead, it is becoming evident that while Romney’s support may be steady, his candidacy is not catching fire. He remains the unloved frontrunner.

As with the others before him, Gingrich will now enter the phase of close scrutiny. Can he survive and emerge as the permanent anybody-but-Romney candidate? Or will he fail, as the others did before him, to maintain his momentum?  Continue…

Don’t count Obama out just yet

By John Parisella - Tuesday, November 8, 2011 at 2:19 PM - 0 Comments

At this time next year, American voters will be choosing a president. Current polls suggest a tight election, with President Obama trailing in some crucial swing states. But a year in politics is an eternity.

The Obama people are banking on the appeal of stability. “Don’t compare me with the Almighty,” Obama said in a recent speech, “compare me to the alternative.” The current crop of Republican presidential candidates has indeed been getting mixed reviews ahead of the primaries. Mitt Romney and Herman Cain may be leading the polls, but neither is showing much traction with independent voters. Many of the leading contenders have shown they are vulnerable—Romney fails to generate enthusiasm, Rick Perry has lost his early momentum, and Cain is mired in scandal. Continue…

Can Romney be stopped?

By John Parisella - Monday, October 31, 2011 at 4:26 PM - 0 Comments

With Hermain Cain riding high in the polls and former Governor Mitt Romney racking up endorsements, some cracks have started to show in the campaigns of their opponents for the GOP nomination.

In recent days, a prominent Tea Party leader has called on Michelle Bachmann to quit, Rick Perry has floated the idea of skipping some upcoming debates, and Jon Huntsman has retreated to New Hampshire. The rest of the field has so far proven unable to distinguish themselves from the pack. Traditionally, developments like these favour the candidate with the most money, the best organization, and the strongest base of support—in this case, Mitt Romney.

There is a consistent pattern emerging in this race and that is the stability of the support for Romney. It’s not high, and it shows little growth beyond 25 per cent, but it’s steady. His debate performances in this campaign far surpass those of 2008, leading a growing number of people to view him as the one to beat. Despite the buzz about Cain, the pizza magnate’s support could prove volatile once the primary season begins. Continue…

The many tests for Mitt Romney

By John Parisella - Monday, October 10, 2011 at 3:44 PM - 2 Comments

At the Values Voter Summit this weekend, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was confronted with one of the many tests he will have to pass on his way to the GOP nomination and perhaps the presidency in November 2012. A supporter of Texas Governor Rick Perry, Pastor Robert Jeffress, referred to Romney as a moral man, but not a true Christian because of his Mormon faith. He went on to characterize Mormonism as a cult and not a genuine Christian religion.

Perry, to his credit, did not endorse the incendiary statements of his supporter, but the battlelines were drawn for the primary battles to come in Iowa and South Carolina, where social conservatives will play a major role in determining who will be President Obama’s opponent next year.

Continue…

Wanted: a Republican saviour

By John Parisella - Friday, September 30, 2011 at 4:25 PM - 4 Comments

If there is one consistent take regarding the Republican nomination race, it is that the field fails to generate much enthusiasm with the base and with independent voters. Rick Perry initially sparked some enthusiasm with social conservatives and the Tea Party, but his recent debate performances have curbed much of the fervour about him.

Mitt Romney continues to show more aplomb and skill as a candidate and a debater than in 2008. He did not panic when Perry jumped ahead in the polls. Now, they are nearly dead even, with Romney displaying more presidential poise. Yet, Romney does not excite the base. So far, neither Perry nor Romney has conveyed to the Republican voter that they are the candidate who can beat a now-vulnerable President Obama in November 2012. Why is this? Continue…

The landing strip on 9/11

By John Parisella - Friday, September 9, 2011 at 3:56 PM - 1 Comment

Just as we are about to begin a year of commemorating the 200th anniversary of the War of 1812 between the U.S. and colonial Canada, we are also recalling the horrific events of 9/11. While there are no similarities outside of lives being lost, the two events give an occasion to recognize how the U.S.-Canada relationship has evolved over the years. It is more than just the largest commercial partnership in the world. It is about respect, trust and friendship.

On 9/11, Canada became a long landing strip for stranded American travelers when U.S. air travel was suspended following the attack on the twin towers. In the days following this horrific act, Canada played a frontline role among the first responder nations. We felt the pain, the anger and the horror at such an irrational act. Twenty-four Canadians also perished that day. So we understood. We were active in rescuing victims, we were leaders in condemning the perpetrators of this unspeakable act, and we helped by welcoming the stranded travelers in our homes and hearts. Continue…

The 2012 election campaign starts now

By John Parisella - Tuesday, September 6, 2011 at 1:19 PM - 4 Comments

Conventional wisdom holds that a presidential campaign begins in earnest right after Labour Day weekend in a presidential election year—a full year away from now. This is notably when public campaign finance provisions kick in. However, this year, with Republican candidate Mitt Romney announcing his jobs program today and Barack Obama presenting his own version two days from now, it feels more like we’ve already entered the final sprint of the 2012 presidential cycle. Continue…

Hurricane Irene and politics done right

By John Parisella - Monday, August 29, 2011 at 3:24 PM - 0 Comments

Hurricane Irene came and went, but not without leaving a major impact. Properties were destroyed, people were killed, and homes were flooded. New York City closed its public transportation system for the first time in history and evacuated over 370,000 of its citizens. Before the storm hit, eight states had declared states of emergency, with President Obama weighing in with added measures on some states, such as North Carolina, New Jersey and New York who were anticipating potentially greater risk.

News media organizations were on high alert. It seemed no other event was taking place on the planet. Citizens showed great discipline and cooperation as many were asked to leave their homes. By the end of the weekend, the hurricane had been downgraded to a tropical storm, but still left an estimated billions of dollars in damage and destruction. Continue…

Why Rick Perry will shake up the Republican race

By John Parisella - Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 3:52 PM - 3 Comments

There is no doubt which Republican won the first week after the Iowa straw poll. Despite taking the Iowa showdown, Michelle Bachmann ended up playing defence to Texas Governor Rick Perry during Perry’s first week in the race. Never mind his controversial statements about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his dismissal of climate change science as a hoax, Perry has changed the nature and the tone of the nomination race. He has shown he is a candidate to be reckoned with.

Presumptive favourite Mitt Romney reacted coyly by staying on course, not rising to the bait, and sticking to an economic message while attacking the Obama record. Former Bush operative Karl Rove was not as subtle and harshly criticized Perry for the Bernanke comment. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman also attacked the Texas governor, knowing full well that Perry’s early supporters would not defect his way.

While there are concerns about this Republican field, it became evident that Perry has the profile, the record, and the finances to make a real run. It may actually scare off any latecomers such as Sarah Palin. Continue…

The Republican race heats up

By John Parisella - Monday, August 15, 2011 at 12:21 PM - 8 Comments

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann wins the Iowa straw poll on Saturday, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty withdraws after his third-place showing, and Texas Governor Rick Perry announces his highly expected candidacy. Not bad for a weekend in U.S. presidential politics. The GOP nomination battle is as hard to predict as next week’s stock prices.

Bachmann’s victory may not be all it is played up to be in the media. The poll results are not binding and her victory was more a product of organizational prowess than a recognition of presidential acumen. Voters were bussed in at great expense, to be pampered and cajoled by organizers in the field. In 2008, Romney won the straw poll, but lost the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee. This time around the liberitarian dark horse candidate Ron Paul finished a close second (29 percent for Bachmann to 28 per cent for Paul). With Rick Perry collecting over 700 write-in votes, the Bachmann victory in the straw poll looks far less certain come caucus time in early 2012.

The arrival of Perry is not good news for Romney because Perry is a fresh new national face with a record he intends to run on. Romney, on the other hand, seems to be running away from his, including his signature accomplishment—universal healthcare in Massachusetts. We should expect fireworks from the two well-financed candidates as the race heats up. The challenge for Bachmann, meanwhile, will be to keep her momentum against these two high-profile governors. Continue…

S&P sends U.S. political leaders a message

By John Parisella - Monday, August 8, 2011 at 5:59 PM - 34 Comments

Last Friday, the Standard & Poor’s rating agency made history by ratcheting the U.S. credit rating down a notch from AAA to AA+. (The two other major rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, kept the U.S. at AAA.) The Obama administration argued S&P overestimated the U.S. debt by over $2 trillion. And though S&P recognized the error, it argued the debt ceiling deal was inadequate to maintain an impeccable credit rating.

Politicians from both the Democratic and Republican parties have blamed one another for the decision by S&P. GOP presidential candidate Michele Bachmann attributed the downgrade to President Obama, while Obama advisor David Axelrod blamed the Tea Party for toying with a default to force spending cuts. Continue…

Who really won the U.S. debt debate?

By John Parisella - Tuesday, August 2, 2011 at 2:30 PM - 22 Comments

I followed the debate over the debt ceiling in the U.S. from Europe, where the commentators were perplexed about why the U.S. government would risk a default for the sake of purely partisan politics. With the deal done and a possible catastrophe is averted, the discussion has shifted to who won and who lost.

Conservatives like columnist Charles Krauthammer have supported raising the debt ceiling all along while acknowledging the work done by Republican negotiators. Others, such as Utah Senator Mike Lee, a leading Tea Party activist, and most GOP presidential hopefuls, opposed it. Respected liberal economist Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times that President Obama had surrendered. So, who actually won? Was there a winner?

Clearly, this was a manufactured crisis, as raising the debt ceiling has never stirred so much down-to-the-wire confrontation in the past. President Reagan raised it 18 times and he is the darling of the Republican right to this day. Continue…

Is it Watergate across the pond?

By John Parisella - Thursday, July 21, 2011 at 6:29 PM - 0 Comments

The British phone hacking scandal is reminiscent of the Watergate scandal of the 1970s. Resignations, non-denial denials, arrests, inquiries by legislators, and firings are dominating the news in both Europe and America. Indeed, just like Watergate, the questions are, what did they (News Corp.) know? And when did they know it?

A parade of News Corp. officials have been before British parliamentarians in recent days, each armed with some of the best p.r. lines money can buy. But like Watergate, no one is taking responsibility. Was it a secret rogue operation that lasted years and involved bribery, payoffs, and character assassination? If so, the trouble should blow over. Yet, it has not blown over and probably will not.

Continue…

How politics have come to dominate the debt ceiling debate

By John Parisella - Monday, July 11, 2011 at 4:43 PM - 38 Comments

Even though we have heard countless references and discussions about the risks associated with rising the US debt ceiling, we should not be surprised that there is still no deal as the supposed deadline of August 2 looms. The debate over a compromise solution has become so politicized both sides are now hardening their positions rather than looking for compromises.

The Republicans have staked their positions: no new taxes and massive spending cuts, in particular to entitlement programs. The presence of a vocal and uncompromising Tea Party contingent makes it difficult for the more moderate Speaker of the House, John Boehner, to deliver votes on a compromise deal with Barack Obama. Consequently, the odds of an historic deal between Obama and the Republicans appear very remote. Continue…

Why Americans have reason to be hopeful

By John Parisella - Monday, July 4, 2011 at 1:04 PM - 0 Comments

On July 4, Americans rightly celebrate their country’s accomplishments since 1776. While living in the United States and witnessing the countless debates on cable news networks, it is tempting to think that America’s best days are behind it, that the American dream is slowly fading away. But we should think again.

America is known for its inherent optimism, its belief in exceptionalism, and its committment to liberty. When the Thirteen Colonies decided to declare independence from the greatest power of the day (Great Britain), the revolutionary ideas held by the Founding Fathers were imbedded deep into the identity of the country, as was the notion that revolution had been the correct and noble choice.

Now, some 235 years later, the attachment to the ideals of revolution remain as vital and strong as ever. With the debt ceiling debate likely to reach a crescendo in the next few weeks, the central question has become whether the American dream will play as vital a role in the lives of future generations. The slow recovery, the rising deficit, and the growing weight of  the national debt have polarized the political debate around the role and size of government.

The additional burden of two seemingly endless wars and a NATO-led operation in Libya has only added to the tide of pessimism. Political dialogue in Washington has gone quiet and there are doubts it can be made to be meaningful again.

Yet, a closer look at where America currently stands suggests the American dream is far from over. Yes, the political climate is polarized, but there is still a free flow of ideas, quite possibly greater than in any other nation in the world. The 2012 election cycle is beginning and the marketplace of ideas will be open to the American voter. If history is an indicator, America will gradually tackle the problems and the issues facing them.

Americans are right to be optimistic. They should be heartened by the innovation and technology that has come from American industry. They should be encouraged by respected educators like Geoffrey Canada of the Harlem Children Zone, pushing for educational reforms and innovation. The current debate about entitlement reform is mostly about keeping the programs going, not eliminating them. The discourse around defense and conflict in the world revolves around making the world safer and less prone to new conflicts, not isolation and resignation.

True, the approaches and the views differ, but the fundamentals revolve around keeping the American dream alive. This is why our neighbours and friends to the south have every reason to celebrate. Happy Fourth of July.

Leadership moments in New York

By John Parisella - Monday, June 27, 2011 at 12:59 PM - 0 Comments

Back in September 2010, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg took a position in favour of building a mosque near Ground Zero and, in so doing, joined a highly emotional debate that swept the nation. He didn’t back away when the controversy became a national one, taking a principled stance as mayor of the city that was the subject of an unspeakable terrorist attack. This was a leadership moment.

Since January 2011, New Yorkers statewide have been treated to a similar series of leadership moments by recently elected Governor Andrew Cuomo, particularly with respect to his negotiations with the state’s unionized employees.  Continue…