By-election expectation

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, October 25, 2010 at 10:19 AM - 0 Comments

In addition to each party dismaying of its chances—the Conservatives, for instance, are suddenly quite keen on Michael Ignatieff—it will no doubt be said over the next two months that by-elections naturally favour the government or opposition.

Here then is Wikipedia’s list of federal by-elections. By my count—excluding the case of Bill Casey, the Conservative MP who was expelled from caucus, won as an independent and was succeeded, after retiring, by a Conservative—the government of the day has held 22 of the 31 seats contested in by-elections over the last 30 years. Opposition parties—again excluding the Casey situation—have held 26 of 38 seats.

By respective percentage, governments held 71% of the time, opposition parties held 68% of the time.

By total seats, governments went into those 69 by-elections with 30 seats and emerged with 29.

By-election brouhaha

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, November 9, 2009 at 9:05 PM - 78 Comments

Results to come at 10pm EST, comments closed until then. (Note: Results now in and updates below.)

In the meantime, there are allegations of shenanigans in Riviere-du-Loup.

And for the numerically inclined, here is how the parties fared in these four ridings combined the last time they were contested as they are tonight—using the 2008 results for three of the four, and the 2006 result for Cumberland.

Conservative 32.6%
Bloc Quebecois 23.6%
NDP 21.2%
Liberal 17.6%
Other 5.0%

That, if you’re particularly keen to make something of this, might be the most interesting benchmark to watch.

Update, 9:46pm. Several other people to keep an eye on tonight: the Star’s Susan Delacourt, our old friend Kady O’Malley at CBC, David Akin on Twitter, Alice Funke at Pundits’ Guide and Eric at ThreeHundredEight.com.

Update 10:00pm. First returns are in. Conservative Scott Armstrong takes Cumberland quite comfortably, though not quite by the same margin as his Bill Casey did three years ago. Hochelaga is a blowout. Montmagny is tight. Continue…

Let us now obsess over relatively minor events

By Aaron Wherry - Sunday, November 8, 2009 at 10:49 PM - 32 Comments

Monday night will see the election of four new MPs to fill the vacancies left by Bill Casey, Dawn Black, Real Menard and Paul Crete. The results of these four races will no doubt be incredibly important and meaningful. At least for about 24 hours or so, after which everyone will move on to some other shiny object.

Wikipedia has past results for Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup and New Westminster—Coquitlam. Pundits’ Guide has that plus plenty of other stuff.

By-election results on Monday night will be available through Elections Canada beginning at 10pm EST.

Various other points of note.

Continue…

Mitchel Raphael on a Rahim Jaffer joke

By Mitchel Raphael - Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 10:40 AM - 0 Comments

Good sport Maxime Bernier

At the suggestion of Capital Diary, this year’s Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner was a different kind of night. Traditionally, party leaders have given funny speeches, but this dinner became a mock awards ceremony with lots of MPs and journalists taking to the stage (in part because fewer and fewer leaders were offering to speak at the event). Rick Mercer talked about all the gay staffers who work for Tory ministers “except Lisa Raitt. How do I know? Just look at her hair.” Other highlights included former foreign affairs minister and very good sport Maxime Bernier comically looking for his notes on stage. He found them and did not have to call Julie Couillard. Also, Scott Brison had some great lines: “I’ve put a lot of work into my speech,” said the Nova Scotia Liberal MP. “In fact, I even got together with former colleague Rahim Jaffer to do a few lines.”

How to get elected in Nova Scotia without spending a dime

The recent announcement of a by-election in Nova Scotia has all eyes in that province on one man: Bill Casey. Casey was the Tory MP who voted against the Conservative budget over the Atlantic accord and then sat as an Independent. He resigned this year, triggering the by-election in his old riding. He is now a Nova Scotia hero: any candidate that received his blessing would sail to victory. According to NDP MP Megan Leslie, “You wouldn’t have to run a campaign if Bill endorsed you.” Casey now works for the Nova Scotia government representing the province’s interests in Ottawa, so he has to appear neutral, but politicians at all levels of government in the province are keen to score even a photo with him.

Happy Birthday from Justin

During question period Justin Trudeau can often be spotted signing all sorts of things. (Most MPs do this, including the PM, who has been spotted signing photos of himself.) One day Trudeau had a huge stack of cards on his desk. Every Liberal supporter in his Montreal riding, he explains, gets a personalized birthday card. Recently, Trudeau popped by the seventh annual Champions of Mental Health awards at the Fairmont Château Laurier ballroom. His mother, Margaret Trudeau, got an award for being open about having bipolar disorder. Also on the awards list was Defence Minister Peter MacKay and Gen. Walter Natynczyk, chief of defence staff, for their work launching the Canadian Forces mental health campaign, “Be the Difference.” MacKay noted that the number of health care officials hired under his watch has increased significantly. Meanwhile, on the military mission front, Natynczyk told Capital Diary that he just wrapped up the mission in Bosnia a few weeks ago. He noted that when it comes to wars, politicians like to sprint, while the military run marathons.

His daughter and Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin’s memoir, Going Rogue: An American Life, will be out soon. So which NDP MP has a photo homage of Palin in his office? Peter Stoffer’s daughter, Amber Ocean Stoffer, once dressed up as the former Republican vice-presidential nominee, and the Nova Scotia MP keeps the snap in a prominent frame in his Hill office. She is called Amber Ocean, says Stoffer, because she was conceived on a cruise ship and the sunsets were a stunning amber colour. Stoffer has another daughter named Jasmin Aurora Stoffer; she was born in the Yukon during an aurora borealis.

What the Senator wore

Sen. Nancy Ruth showed up to the weekly Conservative caucus meeting with a T-shirt under her blazer that read: “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.” She showed it to a few MPs, but made sure not to flash the Prime Minister.

Mitchel Raphael on the cabinet minister who’s lost 30 pounds

By macleans.ca - Thursday, August 20, 2009 at 11:40 AM - 2 Comments

Newfoundland MP has ‘rescued a few people’
The 191-year-old Royal St. John’s Regatta is held the first Wednesday in August—or, if the weather’s not right, the first good day after that. The regatta committee assesses conditions in the early morning and then, if it’s good for the boats, declares a holiday for the city. “You should have the right to have a holiday on a good weather day,” says Newfoundland NDP MP Jack Harris. Harris has been going to the Royal St. John’s Regatta for more than 50 years. He usually plays a game or two of crown and anchor, though not this year. His big win in the past was “a couple of bucks.” He recalls that many years ago, kids would walk around the regatta carrying buckets of water with an egg cup at the bottom. A person would double their money if they landed a coin in the egg cup. Harris himself never landed a coin in the cup. “You were pretty much saying goodbye to your dime,” jokes the MP. This year, Harris was joined by NDP Leader Jack Layton. It was Layton’s first time at the regatta and as he and Harris walked the grounds the phrase “pair of Jacks” was heard a few times. Layton was made an honorary member of the regatta committee and presented with a baseball cap. On that same committee is Liberal MP Siobhan Coady. A member since 1992, she has also been a judge at the regatta and in the ’80s was an active rower. She never tipped a boat, “but I’ve rescued a few people,” says Coady. She’s also known as a “treat” lady because she always gives out crabs or shrimps.

Has anybody got a riding they could give to Elizabeth May?
Last month Green Party Leader Elizabeth May had her first weekend off since the start of 2009. That weekend was part of her five-day summer vacation, spent entirely on a train from Vancouver to Nova Scotia. Her leisure reading included The End of Energy Obesity: Breaking Today’s Energy Addiction for a Prosperous and Secure Tomorrow by Peter Tertzakian and Keith Hollihan, and P.D. James’s mystery novel The Private Patient. May loves mystery books: “They are diverting and make you not think much about reality.” She also read Wayson Choy’s Not Yet and met the author at one of her favourite events, the Read by the Sea Festival in River John, N.S. May has been spending much of the summer looking for a new riding to run in. She says Michael Ignatieff made it clear there will be no leader courtesies offered to her (his predecessor, Stéphane Dion, did not run a candidate against May in Central Nova). The Green leader was thinking of running in former Tory, now Independent MP Bill Casey’s riding since he has resigned, but she feels a general election will be called before that by-election. May’s daughter, Victoria Cate, will attend the University of King’s College in Halifax this September, which will make it difficult for the Green leader to see her unless she picks another East Coast riding. But the priority for the Green party, she says, is for her to find a riding she can win. Continue…

A moment to say nice things

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, May 14, 2009 at 11:49 AM - 0 Comments

Our little pamphlet celebrated the parliamentarians of the year last night—and the written testaments to each MP’s excellence are now online, including salutes to Jason Kenney, Bob Rae, Peter Stoffer, Meghan Leslie, Paul Szabo, Bill Casey and Joe Comartin. The short profiles of Stoffer and Rae are particularly eloquent and insightful.

This is the third year we’ve handed out awards—previous winners include Bill Blaikie and Ralph Goodale.

The Parliamentarians of the Year

By macleans.ca - Wednesday, May 13, 2009 at 7:57 PM - 10 Comments

The Parliamentarians of the Year were honoured at a ceremony in Ottawa tonight. Maclean’s editor-in-chief Ken Whyte handed out awards to this year’s winners: Jason Kenney, MP of the Year; Bob Rae, best orator; Megan Leslie, best rookie; Peter Stoffer, most collegial; Bill Casey, best represents constituents; Paul Szabo, hardest working; Joe Comartin, most knowledgeable. For profiles of the winners, pick up this week’s issue of Maclean’s, or check out our Parliamentarians of the year article.

Second-last of the independents

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, May 1, 2009 at 12:00 PM - 1 Comment

Bill Casey bid adieu to Parliament yesterday with a classy final speech (the Chuck Cadman story was particularly poignant). Tributes from Peter MacKay, Geoff Regan, Peter Stoffer,Claude DeBellefeuille and the Speaker followed.

Full speeches after the jump. Continue…

Trudeau chills with his old crew

By Mitchel Raphael - Tuesday, March 31, 2009 at 12:54 AM - 26 Comments

Members of Katimavik, Canada’s leading youth service program, were on the Hill for a reception which they do several times a year. Joining them was Montreal Liberal MP Justin Trudeau who used to be Chair of the Board of Directors of Katimavik. Trudeau poses below with a youth and loaf of bread.

The kids were also joined by Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.

Continue…

The Commons: Michael Ignatieff and the herd

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, February 4, 2009 at 7:36 PM - 41 Comments

The Scene. The early reviews are in and Michael Ignatieff is a disaster. A blight upon our democracy. A threat, no less, to the very notion of this nation we hold dear. Ottawa, it is safe to say, is unimpressed.

“Just who is running the Liberal caucus?” begged the Globe and Mail’s editorial board this morning, thoroughly perplexed at Mr. Ignatieff’s decision to let half a dozen Liberal MPs from Newfoundland vote of their own volition. “Whether or not this proves to be a ‘one-time pass,’ as Mr. Ignatieff has claimed, it could have far-reaching consequences for him, for his party, and potentially for the country.”

“I think it’s a total lack of leadership,” concurred Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, he of nearly two decades in Ottawa.

“It can be described lots of ways but it can’t really be described as leadership,” scolded the NDP’s Jack Layton, speaking from his 26 years of political experience.

“Certainly,” chirped baby-faced Conservative Pierre Poilievre, a keen student of this stuff, “Prime Minister Harper is a strong leader and you’ll notice that his caucus is unanimous in voting with him. I think that is the mark of a strong leader.”

Anonymous Liberals were said to be perplexed. The men on the CTV nightly news were positively aghast, shocked at the Liberal leader’s unprecedented decision to emasculate himself so publicly.

Trying to grasp the sheer enormity of Mr. Ignatieff’s misstep, the Globe consulted professor Tom Flanagan, a former associate of Mr. Harper’s and, consequently, a man intimately familiar with the mystical qualities that make one a proper leader of men. ”It is a sign of weakness in the brutal world of politics,” the professor concluded. ”Harper, would never do something similar.”

No doubt Mr. Ignatieff thought that last bit a compliment. But then he and the herd don’t know quite what to do with each other. Continue…

The new normal

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, February 4, 2009 at 12:50 PM - 22 Comments

An enterprising Ottawa Citizen reporter discovers that two members of the Finance Minister’s economic advisory council stand to benefit from the Finance Minister’s budget.

Total number of related queries posed by the opposition in subsequent sessions of Question Period: 0.

Generally respected independent MP Bill Casey stands in the House and suggests someone with the governing party has falsely accused him of embezzlement in an attempt to defame him.

Total number of related queries posed by the opposition in yesterday’s session of Question Period: 0.

Conservative Party “never thought there was any financial wrongdoing involving Mr. Casey.”

By kadyomalley - Wednesday, February 4, 2009 at 10:04 AM - 46 Comments

I’ve updated my original post to add the latest reports on the alleged smear campaign against Bill Casey, the most detailed and interesting of which, not surprisingly. comes from Casey’s local paper, the Halifax Chronicle Herald. Along with considerable background information on how the allegations against Casey were floated to at least two journalists during the last election, it also includes multiple on-the-record denials from various national party officials of any involvement by the federal party in filing the complaint with the RCMP.

Conservative Party president Don Plett, who was involved in putting together the campaign team for the parachute candidate that his party ran against Casey after the local riding association sided with the now-independent incumbent, claims that the first he heard of the RCMP complaint was when Casey went public with his allegations on Tuesday.

The party’s national communications director Ryan Sparrow says that the party had “looked into the financial dealings” and found nothing amiss. “The Conservative Party of Canada never thought there was any financial wrongdoing involving Mr. Casey, his local riding association or the election campaign,” he told the Herald.

Finally, PMO director of communication Kory Teneycke is adamant that the government “didn’t have anything to do with the complaint”, adding that “we don’t have a political axe to grind with Mr. Casey.”

ITQ has to confess to being a bit rushed at the moment and don’t have time to add much in the way of original musings, but will do so later today. To tide you over in the interim, here’s a timeline – ITQ does love her timelines, doesn’t she? – of events related to the accusations that unnamed party volunteers were apparently trying to push to the media during the campaign, and the complaint to the RCMP. I’ll update this, too, as we learn more.

September 7, 2008

The federal election begins.

September 19, 2008

Unnamed “Conservative party members … report the embezzlement of funds by a member of Parliament” to the Bible Hill detachment of the RCMP.

September/October 2008

According to the Halifax Chronicle Herald, “a party volunteer who was working for Conservative candidate Joel Bernard in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley approached Nova Scotia journalists pitching a story about the $30,000 but no media outlet reported on the allegation.”

October 10, 2008

Conservative blogger Stephen Taylor receives an email from an unnamed source that appears to repeat the allegation that Casey “and his cohorts stole and embezzled a large amount of money.” The source also faxes a copy of the cheque. After looking into the claim, Taylor determines that the allegations were unfounded.

January 29, 2009

La Presse reporter Hugo de Grandpre contacts Casey’s office to ask if “there is any update on the charges against [him] on the accusation of embezzlement”.

February 3, 2009

Casey goes public with the allegations against him by raising a point of privilege in the House of Commons.

UPDATED: Official Bill Casey Open Thread

By kadyomalley - Tuesday, February 3, 2009 at 12:50 PM - 158 Comments

UPDATE: CBC.ca Nova Scotia has a story up.

EVEN UPDATEDER: … and so does Canadian Press.

MORE UPDATE-IER STILL:  Conservative blogger Stephen Taylor reveals that he, too, received a virtual “brown envelope”.

Halifax Chronicle Herald Ottawa bureau chief Steve Maher provides the most detailed account yet.

AND AGAIN THE UPDATES: Scroll down for the awesome poetizing of Jack Mitchell!

Y’all, I’m totally trying to catch up after missing this morning’s excitement, and I promise that I’ll update this post when I have a better idea of what’s going on, but here’s  a partial the full transcript of the point of order that Independent and Proud of It MP Bill Casey delivered a few moments ago in the House of Commons, at least:

Mr. Bill Casey (Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Ind.): Mr. Speaker, I rise on a question of privilege. I hope to be able to present a prima facie case that my privileges as a member of Parliament and even as a Canadian citizen have been breached.

I never, ever thought that I would stand in the House and have to defend myself against false accusations of theft and embezzlement—I can hardly say the word.

Last Thursday a member of the press, Hugo de Grandpré from La Presse called my office and asked if there was any update on the charges against me on the accusation of embezzlement.

Continue…

Bill Casey & the Newfoundland Four

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, February 3, 2009 at 10:03 AM - 28 Comments

His is a cautionary tale.

Two years ago, Bill Casey objected to his government’s budget—something to do with an obscure agreement with some obscure East Coast province or another. He voted against that budget in the House of Commons and was subsequently told to go sit on the other side of the House where his poor example would be less likely to influence the sorts of impressionable government backbenchers who might be tempted by the notion of free will.

Stubborn to the end, Casey ran for reelection this past fall. So shamed by their duly elected representative’s refusal to put Parliamentary tradition and partisan allegiance ahead of personal conviction, the people of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley publicly admonished the partyless Casey with 5,000 more votes than he’d received as a Conservative in 2006. And so scolded, Casey quickly announced he would soon retire from federal politics, resigned to returning to his obscure East Coast province to live out his life as a mere folk hero. Or possibly run for premier.

For sure, the Newfoundland Four—Siobhan Coady, Scott Andrews, Judy Foote and Scott Simms; three of them rookies, the other just very short—may be full of righteous indignation now. They may think they are doing what they should.

But, rest assured, the good people of this country take their three-line whip votes and caucus loyalty very seriously. And no attempt to undermine the historical foundations of our democracy goes unnoticed.

Rebel with a cause

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, January 13, 2009 at 12:10 PM - 3 Comments

Bill Casey announces his eventual adieu.

Megapundit: Defending the indefensible—with a smile

By selley - Thursday, October 2, 2008 at 2:26 PM - 9 Comments

Must-reads: James Travers in Nova Scotia; Christie Blatchford on Julie Couillard; Jeffrey Simpson on the debate.

What debate were you watching?
This much we all agree on: Elizabeth May didn’t win.

The Globe and Mail‘s Jeffrey Simpson calls last night’s leaders’ debate for Gilles Duceppe—and really, how could you not? The Bloc Québécois leader “has never made a decision in government to defend, and never will, [so] he could keep complaining, criticizing and implying, which he does with exceptional cleverness,” that Stephen Harper’s Ottawa, like all the Ottawas that preceded it, is out to screw Quebeckers. If anyone changed his or her mind last night, Simpson predicts, it was probably in the Bloc’s favour—which is to Harper’s considerable disadvantage. Stéphane Dion didn’t wow, Simpson adds, but had at least one very good moment when he attacked Harper for what Simpson calls “his excessively partisan governing style.”

The Calgary Herald‘s Don Martin “fearlessly declare[s] there was no runaway winner or obvious loser.” Harper didn’t douse the flames of arts funding and youth justice, and probably didn’t win over many “sovereigntist fence-sitters” unsure of how a majority government would treat Quebec’s interests, but Martin says his performance was “calm and surprisingly laidback,” and that he often “seemed bemused by the group gang-up” instead of annoyed. (His bemusedness seemed somewhat forced to us, but was no doubt a good strategy). As for Dion, Martin suggests he stop raising his hand—We disagree! Take the high road!—and “dive into the debate” tonight.

Continue…

Highway Bill Casey: Long may he reign o'er us

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 4, 2008 at 10:11 PM - 31 Comments

The ‘us’ of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, at least, as far as the Greens are concerned.

From National Newswatch:

“Bill Casey is a hero. He stood up for Nova Scotia and he stood up for
Canadians,” said Ms. May at a campaign rally in her riding on Thursday night
with Blair Wilson, Canada’s first Green MP.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May announced that her party
considers Independent Member of Parliament Bill Casey “an honourary Green”.

The Green Party of Canada and its Electoral District Association in
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley will not be opposing the
re-election of Mr Casey. The nominated candidate for the Green Party in
Casey’s riding, Darryl Whetter, has decided to step aside and is now the
Green candidate in Halifax.

Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party, and candidate in the adjoining
Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova, praised Bill Casey’s political track
record.

Obligatory full disclosure: I’m a big fan of Bill Casey, who has been consistently and utterly tireless, not to mention tirelessly enthusiastic, in serving his constitutents, as a Progressive Conservative, Conservative and Independent, and as opposition MP, government backbencher and unexpectedly opposition MP once again. I can’t imagine looking down from the Commons gallery and not seeing his Cheshire cat grin.

BTC: Roll call

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, July 3, 2008 at 8:06 PM - 0 Comments

Not that anyone’s currently around to hold a vote. Nor that there could be a vote—or at least one that could matter. But for those of you keeping score at home, here’s a breakdown of those MPs who’ve spoken publicly about the appointment of Dr. Morgentaler. Continue…