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By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 9:48 AM - 0 Comments

A year and a half after the chief statistician resigned, Statistics Canada’s chief economic analyst resigns.

Mr. Cross has plenty of praise for Statscan – it is managing pending budget cuts “efficiently yet humanely” and error rates have gone down in recent years. But “a lot of good can be offset if you get one big thing wrong – and the big thing in this instance is census and NHS [national household survey],” he said.

Survey response rates are his chief concern – the 69.3-per-cent response rate from the household survey is based on distribution to a third of households, meaning it’s actually based on answers from a fifth of the population. And it’s still unclear, he said, which segments of the population are missing from the sample. “The focus on response rates ignores questions about the quality and distribution of the responses, but discussion of the latter issues is limited by management’s insistence on being ‘on-message’ all the time about [2011] census and NHS being a success.”

Former chief statistician Ivan Fellegi describes Mr. Cross as a “top-notch economic analyst.” The Globe also has a transcript of its interview with the current chief statistician, Wayne Smith.

‘The data will almost certainly be biased’

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, September 30, 2011 at 5:32 PM - 23 Comments

New figures show a 69% response rate for the National Household Survey—higher than Statistics Canada expected, but still not sufficient to replace the long-form census.

“You simply can’t get reliable data from a voluntary survey,” said John Brewster, who teaches statistics at the University of Manitoba and is president of the Statistical Society of Canada. ”I mean, this is something we teach in every course in statistics, for example. The data will almost certainly be biased. And we don’t really know at this time the magnitude or direction of that bias.”

The end of the long-form census

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, September 21, 2011 at 8:45 AM - 7 Comments

Munir Sheikh reviews the demise of the long-form census, his resignation and the ramifications for Statistics Canada.

As if this were not enough, the government’s decision on the long form census has the potential for a substantial impact in reducing the quality of Statistics Canada data.

Data quality may be affected in a variety of ways. First, it will affect the long form survey data. It is a statistical fact that a voluntary survey cannot become a substitute for a mandatory census because of uneven response rates from different population groups and different size geographic areas. Increasing the sample size cannot offset this problem. Hence, many data users including the federal government will lose the data quality they need. Second, to the extent that the long form census data provide a benchmark for other Statistics Canada surveys, the quality of data from these other surveys would deteriorate.

Derailment

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, July 13, 2011 at 12:50 PM - 71 Comments

Stephen Gordon hasn’t forgotten about the census.

The census story is a train wreck in slow motion; the latest car to pile on the flaming ruins is the recent report that Statistics Canada has resigned itself to accepting incomplete responses to the National Household Survey (NHS) … The most recent census was in 2006, and it looks as though the next usable census will take place in 2021 at the earliest. Our understanding of what is going on in the Canadian economy in the next decades will grow steadily weaker as more cars pile on the census train wreck.

Voluntary and unanswered

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, July 7, 2011 at 10:37 AM - 36 Comments

Jennifer Ditchburn checks on the progress of the National Household Survey.

Under the previous system, census workers would call up a household that had not filled out its mandatory long questionnaire, and then pay a visit — or even several — to make sure it was completed. Now Statistics Canada is accepting incomplete forms — called partial responses — and there is no followup…

One census enumerator, who spoke to The Canadian Press on condition of anonymity, said workers had been instructed to accept the long forms with as few as 10 of 84 questions answered. They can also declare somebody has given them a “total refusal” simply by speaking to them on the phone.

Conservative MP says government could make short-form census optional

By macleans.ca - Thursday, May 5, 2011 at 10:56 AM - 25 Comments

This year’s mandatory short-form census could be the last of its kind, Conservative MP Rick Dykstra told a local newspaper in his riding. In an interview with the St. Catharines Standard, Dykstra said the provision requiring Canadians to fill it out could be eliminated. “We’ve already changed the long-form census so that it is not mandatory and that is, frankly, the road we are going with the short-form census as well,” Dykstra said Wednesday. “I frankly don’t think this is the sort of thing a person should be penalized to do.” PMO spokesperson Dimitri Soudas was quick to distance the government from Dykstra’s statements Thursday morning, telling Reuters reporter David Ljunggren, “The short form census will remain as is.”

St. Catharines Standard

Twitter

'Respecting and Renewing our Democracy'

By Aaron Wherry - Sunday, April 3, 2011 at 11:45 AM - 87 Comments

For those of us who are interested in such things, here are the democratic reforms promised by the Liberals.

Liberals will adopt a new approach to information, issuing government-wide direction that the default position for all departments and agencies will be to release information to the public, both proactively and responsively … all Access to Information requests and responses will be posted online … a searchable, online database for grants, contributions and contracts … restore the mandatory long form census … procedural limitations on the prime minister’s power to prorogue … all Canadians will be able to participate in People’s Question Period, where the Prime Minister and Ministers will respond directly to unscripted, user-generated questions online … a new Standing Committee on National Security … regular face-to-face meetings of all party leaders … direct Elections Canada to develop an online voting option.

The Liberals also commit to pursuing Question Period reforms similar to those proposed by Michael Chong. And elsewhere, under deficit reduction, the Liberals suggest a smaller cabinet.

Documents show StatsCan tried to fight decision to kill long-form census

By macleans.ca - Wednesday, March 2, 2011 at 2:50 PM - 28 Comments

According to documents obtained through a Freedom of Information request, Statistics Canada’s arm’s length panel of experts resented the government’s unilateral decision to scrap the long-form census. The government-appointed National Statistics Council was kept in the dark about the decision. And though most of its members kept quiet through the controversy, documents obtained by Postmedia News show a flurry of messages urging the agency and government to reconsider or to explain the decision. University of Toronto professor Janet Smylie, for one, said, “We should do whatever we can to indicate that our advisory council is opposed to this change and/or reverse this decision,” adding that the move would have a “devastating” impact on the ability to track aboriginals and other marginalized groups. Then-chief statistician Munir Sheikh was asked in one document whether Statistics Canada had any information on the impact of the decision. “No, we haven’t prepared any material on the impacts,” he replied. Sheikh ultimately resigned in protest.

National Post

The scientific case for questionable accuracy

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, February 14, 2011 at 10:07 AM - 40 Comments

Stephen Gordon responds to the new Chief Statistician’s claim there’s “no scientific basis” for claiming the National Household Survey will be flawed.

This is wrong, and badly so. So wrong that when his political masters suggested in public that the analysts at Statistics Canada were of this opinion, Munir Sheikh – Mr Smith’s predecessor as Chief Statistician – felt obliged to resign in order to speak freely and correct the record … In point of fact, Statistics Canada has done quite a bit of research documenting the fundamental flaws associated with voluntary surveys; see Kevin Milligan’s guest post as well as this. Insisting that “critics cannot be sure” is a remarkable thing for a Chief Statistician to say; statistics is not in the business of providing absolute certainty.

Ask the expert

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, February 10, 2011 at 10:44 AM - 19 Comments

Surely the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ moment of universal respect and deference must not pass without noting its opinion on the elimination of the long-form census.

CFIB is highly experienced in the design and conduct of surveys, relying on them to form accurate pictures of the small- and mid-sized business community. We therefore understand the strengths and weaknesses of voluntary questionnaires, managing response burden and dealing with sensitive subject matter. Because of our experience with authoring surveys and with purchasing Census long-form data, CFIB has grave concerns about how your proposed changes could diminish data quality and harm comparability with previous Census years.

For the good of the country, won't you please submit to Tony Clement's personal and intrusive questions?

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, January 21, 2011 at 4:09 PM - 34 Comments

Tony Clement appeals for your help.

“I am pleased that Ms. Finley did not receive a formal sentence. It’s our government’s position that there are other ways to collect useful and usable data than by threatening Canadians with jail time,” Mr. Clement said in a statement. “That is why we will be introducing legislation to eliminate such threats.”

“However, completing the census is important for data purposes so I do encourage Canadians to comply and to participate in the National Household Survey in the coming months.”

Clement urges Canadians complete census

By macleans.ca - Friday, January 21, 2011 at 12:39 PM - 18 Comments

Industry Minister Tony Clement, who sent the country into a heated debate over statistics last summer when he made the mandatory long-form census voluntary, is now is urging Canadians to voluntarily complete the new National Household Survey. Clement touts the fact Canadians will no longer face jail time for not answering “personal and intrusive” questions. At the same time, the industry minister praised the decision of a Saskatoon judge to let Sandra Finley go without jail time for her refusal to complete the census, on the grounds that StatsCan had purchased software from Lockheed Martin. Census-takers are expecting that, at best, only 65 to 70 percent of Canadians will complete the questionnaire, prompting the Industry Minister to remind Canadians that “completing the census is important for data purposes.” At 35 pages, the National Household Survey is still a fairly long and extensive questionnaire that asks Canadians about their religion, ethnicity and financial information.

The Globe and Mail

The economist

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, January 13, 2011 at 3:50 PM - 72 Comments

Stephen Harper, September 2008. “My own belief is if we were going to have some kind of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now.”

Stephen Harper, October 2008. “I know economists will say well, we could run a small deficit but the problem is that once you cross that line as we see in the United States, nothing stops deficits from getting larger and larger and spiralling out of control.”

Stephen Harper, October 2008. “We’ll never go back into deficit.”

Stephen Harper, December 2008. “The truth is, I’ve never seen such uncertainty in terms of looking forward to the future … Obviously, we’re going to have to run a deficit.”

Stephen Harper, February 2009. “Of course there’s all kinds of risks of inefficient, expanded government policies that will continue into the future. I’m not suggesting there aren’t long-term risks. But I was taught early in economics classes, the famous economist John Maynard Keynes said that, ‘At times like this, we remember that in the long run, we’re all dead.’ So right now, we worry about the short term. We are worried about the short term, and we’ve got to get things right now.”

Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to Stephen Harper, March 2009. “Despite economic evidence to the contrary, in my view the GST cut worked … It worked in the sense that by the end of the ’05-’06 campaign, voters identified the Conservative party as the party of lower taxes. It worked in the sense that it helped us to win.”

The Canadian Association for Business Economists, August 2010.  The Canadian Association for Business Economics says a poll suggests 74 per cent of its members think it’s bad policy to replace the obligatory long census with a voluntary survey. Seventy-one per cent anticipate the quality of data obtained from a voluntary survey will be poorer than that collected from the compulsory census. And 76 per cent believe the change will negatively affect the analysis done by their group or organization.

Stephen Harper, yesterday. “On the other hand, when things change as rapidly as they do, you can’t be locked in to the same answer in every situation. Obviously, the last two years required us, my judgment as an economist, required us to on a temporary basis spend an enormous amount of money and run a significant deficit. I think we were in the unusual situation where that’s actually the ideal economic policy.”

How Stephen Harper will survive in 2011

By Paul Wells - Friday, January 7, 2011 at 8:00 AM - 234 Comments

Blair Gable/Reuters

On New Year’s Eve, his last day as Stephen Harper’s chief of staff, Guy Giorno wrote a farewell memo to Conservative government staffers and launched a Twitter account. Ottawa started poring over his 140-character Twitter bursts and ignored the memo. Let’s read the memo.

“After exactly two-and-one-half wonderful years,” Giorno wrote, it was time to leave Harper’s side. He reminded his colleagues of the government’s successes. Only one item on his list was about policy: “A sweeping, affirmative Economic Action Plan to protect the economy.” The result? “Our economy is outperforming the economies of many countries of the world.”

The rest of Giorno’s list was about partisan political achievements. “We won a general election, only the eighth time in 40 elections that a governing party has increased both its seat count and its share of the popular vote. We eliminated the so-called gender gap”—the Liberals’ former advantage among female voters—“and made inroads into communities that have not voted Conservative for decades . . . Today, our standing in the polls is stronger and higher than when I first arrived.”

Continue…

The Year in Democracy (II)

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, January 6, 2011 at 10:35 AM - 141 Comments

David Eaves nominates the census debate.

That’s why at a time when Canadian political coverage tries to cleave the country’s citizens into different, competing groups – rural versus urban, French versus English, left versus right – I think the best moment in Canadian Democracy was seeing over 500 groups including all levels of government, non-profits from across the country, business organizations, rural communities, and virtually all the major religious organizations come together and challenge the government with one voice … The decision and the process surrounding it may be one of the year’s darkest moments for Canadian democracy but the country’s reaction was definitely one of our brightest.

Overrated in 2010: the list

By Paul Wells - Monday, December 20, 2010 at 2:16 PM - 144 Comments

1. Gilles Duceppe. He didn’t dare run against Pauline Marois for the PQ leadership when the job was open; it is not clear he would win it if he faced serious competition from within the PQ caucus now; and sovereignist hawks like Jacques Parizeau who like his tough talk now, when a referendum is certain not to happen anytime soon, forget that he has always stood with the doves when holding a referendum was possible but risky. Sure, his Bloc continues to float well above the other parties in Quebec. But would it fare any worse if any other MP in his caucus replaced him as leader?

2. The long-form census as a vote-mover. “I’ve been mystified by Stephen Harper’s willingness to squander so much political capital on an issue as trivial as the long-form census,” Charles W. Moore wrote in the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal in August. (I’d give you a link but the one I had has expired.) At the time I found this incorrect for one reason: that to Harper, at least, scrapping the mandatory long-form census was far from trivial. But it’s now clear that the analysis, broadly shared by a lot of commentators, was wrong for a second reason: Harper wasn’t squandering any political capital. You can’t find any long-term damage to his party’s standings or the Conservative brand since Harper won this fight. (Because he did win it: the long-form census is dead and the integrity of its data set is compromised no matter what future governments do.) Continue…

Aboriginal groups says census changes are unconstitutional

By macleans.ca - Monday, December 13, 2010 at 4:23 PM - 17 Comments

A coalition of Atlantic aboriginals is challenging the federal government’s decision to scrap the long form census before the Federal Court. Alex Smith, the lawyer representing the group, told the Court the change is unconstitutional, since it will compromise the government’s ability to carry out its constitutional duties to aboriginal people by skewing the data. “It’s not a representative survey if it’s not mandatory,” Smith said. The aboriginal groups hope the court will issue an injunction that would stop the new voluntary survey and reinstate the long-form census.

Toronto Star

'The prime minister's decision'

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, December 3, 2010 at 11:05 AM - 49 Comments

The federal government was preparing last December to deal with the “the prime minister’s decision” to do away with the long-form census.

Human Resources and Skills Development Canada: Less reliable data would “compromise their ability” to determine EI eligibility, assess skills development and retraining, and apply the federal-provincial agreement on labour mobility.

Indian and Northern Affairs Canada: “Absence of reliable long-form data will not allow them to effectively manage, evaluate, and measure performance of programs in areas of aboriginal health, housing, education, and economic development.”

Citizenship and Immigration Canada: A broad range of programs dealing with selecting and settling immigrants, including a pan-Canadian agreement on foreign credentials would be hit. “A question in the long form on country of educational attainment specifically provides information to support this program.”

EU stats gurus "astonished" over Canadian census controversy

By macleans.ca - Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 12:54 PM - 24 Comments

Canada has disappointed the European Statistical Governance Advisory Board, an EU body that promotes the independence and accountability of statistical agencies in Europe. Harper’s July removal of the mandatory long-form census, to be replaced by a voluntary National Household Survey, has raised concerns about the integrity of the results. “We were utterly astonished, given our view of Canadian statistics. We didn’t expect it to happen in Canada, quite frankly,” said Johnny Akerholm, chair of the ESGAB. “We’ve all been full of admiration of everything that is going on in the statistical field in Canada. Canada has frequently been seen as the benchmark, the best performer.”

Ottawa Citizen

When ministers of the crown tweet

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, November 24, 2010 at 10:06 AM - 127 Comments

Tony Clement takes on the worldwide statistical conspiracy.

dgardner So what might a professional, independent, disinterested observer think of the Harper government’s #census decision? http://bit.ly/hnzoFU

TonyClement_MP @dgardner Statisticians sticking up for fellow statisticians is your idea of “disinterested”?? You’re kidding, right?

dgardner @TonyClement_MP : No. You think professionals from another continent are biased because they share the profession? You’re kidding, right?

TonyClement_MP @dgardner If they’re from another continent, why are they sticking their noses in Canada’s business? Spare me the righteousness.

dgardner @TonyClement_MP : Oh, lord. Really? Faux populism? Rush Limbaugh territory. Don’t go there.

The long reach of the long-form census

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, November 22, 2010 at 12:14 PM - 13 Comments

Statistics Canada documents show how, and by who, the long-form census was used.

The Department of Finance reported using long-form data to track Canadian migration patterns during economic changes. Health Canada employs it to assess well-being in first nations communities, while the Public Health Agency relies on this information to target services to clusters of immigrants or particular ethnic groups. The Canada Student Loan Program uses this census data for demographic analysis of post-secondary enrolment, and the Department of Justice uses it to tailor studies on elder abuse to different ethnic populations.

Freedom from tyranny

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 26, 2010 at 4:04 PM - 0 Comments

Conservative backbencher Stephen Woodworth has a question.

Re long census,regardless of assurances of privacy, should we really force people to tell us whether they’re gay?

Mr. Woodworth is perhaps referring to a question on the 2006 long-form census that asks respondents to acknowledge a “same-sex common law partner” relationship. The long-form census has, of course, since been converted to a voluntary survey. But the short-form census remains mandatory. And among the questions approved by Mr. Woodworth’s government for that mandatory short-form census is one that asks respondents to indicate whether individuals within a given household include a “same-sex married spouse” or “same-sex common law partner.”

The open era

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, October 21, 2010 at 12:51 PM - 0 Comments

The Liberals have now set out their open government agenda, which would, in addition to restoring the long-form census, include as follows.

Make as many government datasets as possible available to the public online free of charge at opendata.gc.ca in an open and searchable format, starting with Statistics Canada data, including data from the long-form census; Post all Access to Information requests, responses, and response times online at accesstoinformation.gc.ca; and Make information on government grants, contributions and contracts available through a searchable, online database at accountablespending.gc.ca.

David Eaves has some thoughts. The NDP’s Charlie Angus has also tabled a motion generally calling on the government to pursue open source ideals.

Let them eat a non-representative sample of cake

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, October 21, 2010 at 10:31 AM - 0 Comments

Statistics Canada celebrates in style.

The first World Statistics Day was celebrated at Statscan on Wednesday with guest speakers, free coffee and enough vanilla cake to feed 400 of the agency’s 6,000 employees. Statistically speaking, that means 93 per cent of staff had to go without.