The B.C. pollster who got it right — and those who didn’t

By Nancy Macdonald - Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 8:34 PM - 0 Comments

Andy Clark/Reuters

For pollsters, the B.C. election was a cock-up of epic proportions.

Today, some offered mea culpas.

“This is a blow to the industry,” said Steve Mossop, president of Insights West.

“Clearly we missed some of it pretty badly,” said Ekos Research Associates vice-president, Frank Graves.

But others are digging in their heels.

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The fiscal outlook for B.C.’s re-elected Liberals

By Kevin Milligan - Thursday, May 16, 2013 at 12:48 PM - 0 Comments

Jonathan Hayward/CP

Christy Clark and the B.C. Liberal government begin a new term facing a propitious fiscal situation, arguably second in Canada only to Saskatchewan. Net debt as a share of GDP is low (only Saskatchewan and Alberta’s are lower), and B.C. has a shot at balancing the budget in 2013-14 – along with Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Nova Scotia. The Liberals made a few big-ticket election campaign spending promises, but, on the tax side, they also indicated they intend to pad revenues over the next few years with higher tax rates for personal and corporate income. In short, the new government has much freedom to work on new projects without having to fight festering fiscal fires.

That said, budgets must still be watched, lest the current advantages be frittered away. Below, I outline the main challenges on both the revenue and expenditure sides.

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10 reasons Christy Clark could actually win the B.C. election

By Nancy Macdonald - Thursday, May 9, 2013 at 4:35 PM - 0 Comments

Andrew Vaughan/CP

For the past year, the B.C. Liberals, mired in scandals of their own doing, have been polling at least 20 points behind the NDP. Last week, the ground suddenly shifted. A Forum Research Inc. poll put the Liberals just four points behind the NDP. Later that day, Angus Reid released similar results, putting the Liberals seven points behind the NDP. And with that, the provincial election which, for the better part of a year, had been looking like a cakewalk for the NDP’s Adrian Dix, started to resemble a comeback tale for the ages for Clark’s Liberal team.

With just five days remaining before British Columbians head to the polls, it remains hard to imagine that Clark might actually close the gap. Crucially, Angus Reid puts the Liberals 10 points behind the NDP in the vote-rich ridings of B.C.’s Lower Mainland. Still, no one ever imagined the race would get this close, nor that Clark, whose two-year tenure has been marred by controversy and scandal, would perform as well as she has in the last four weeks.

Here are the 10 reasons for the Liberal surge:

1. Clark’s highly effective campaign

The Liberals have managed to frame the conversation on fiscal and economic issues—taxes, government spending and major projects like pipelines, liquefied natural gas and fracking—on which they are strong. That makes the NDP, who promise to increase taxes and government spending, show little to no interest in balancing the budget, and oppose resource mega-projects look like a risky choice. The NDP can’t seem to play their advantage, and turn the conversation to health care and education.

2. The NDP’s decision to come out against Kinder Morgan

Dix, worried about bleeding votes to the B.C. Greens, came out against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion two weeks ago. It was a disastrous choice.
Green Party support remains unmoved. And it’s given Clark room to claim that resource development will come to a standstill under Dix—who also opposes Enbridge’s Northern Gateway pipeline plan—killing jobs and wrecking B.C.’s shaky economy.

Dix’s stunning flip-flop has also alienated centrists, and is forcing those considering parking their vote with the Conservatives to think again.

3. The disastrous Conservative campaign

After last week’s debate, the tweet, “Cummins went full Gran Torino” was trending on Twitter—a reference to the 71-year-old B.C. Conservative leader John Cummins’ cranky incoherence during the April 29 leader’s debate. Again and again, Cummins, the only leader to rely on notes, repeated that the Liberals and NDP would “tax British Columbians to oblivion,” whatever that means. (“It’s possible,” said one observer, “that the only thing written on those notes was ‘Taxes = Bad.’ ”)

Cummins has had to fire four candidates since the campaign began; and the party, who saw support hit record levels ahead of the campaign, is looking more and more like a hopeless bunch of cranks. Potential Conservative voters have been running home to the Liberals ever since the writ was dropped.

4. Debate performance

Ahead of the debate, the media narrative said that Dix just had to show up, and not embarrass himself. He did both those things, and media commentators gave him the edge coming out of the debate. But the B.C. media are used to Clark’s slick communications skills. Regular British Columbians are not. They saw something very different on April 29. Dix, who began the debate with a shaking voice, often looked terrified, even when leaning stiffly against the podium, an apparent attempt to appear relaxed. (Some in the Liberal war room were playing a drinking game, knocking back every time Dix rested against his lectern.) By contrast, Clark, a former radio show host, looked polished, at ease and was quick to pounce.

Dix may not have fumbled; but only one leader looked electable that night. Polls released later that week confirmed that the televised debate had changed a lot of minds.

5. Personality

The bookish NDP leader has what one analyst has dubbed a “charisma deficit.” Clark’s best assets, meanwhile, are “her personality, her optimism, her attitude,” says the University of the Fraser Valley’s Hamish Telford.

The Clark campaign has been regularly tweeting photos of the premier in hard hats, hands dirty, all smiles. It’s cheesy stuff, but it works. Dix, who was recently photographed in a goofy bowler hat in historic Barkerille, has been running a cautious, defensive campaign, limiting scrums to one a day, and restricting media access.

It took his campaign almost four weeks to finally grant Maclean’s a 10-minute interview—after near-daily rescheduling and endless dickering over when and where the interview would be conducted and how the article would be framed.

The Clark campaign had the premier on the phone within days. They had no questions nor qualms about the tone of the interview or the article itself.

6. Attack ads

Voters may claim to hate attack ads. But research shows they have their desired impact on voting behaviour. From the start, Clark’s team has been running brutal attack ads against Dix. Yesterday came the release of yet another—a clip from the televised leader’s debate where Dix was asked a question about “memogate.” (Thirteen years ago, when he was B.C. premier Glen Clark’s chief of staff, Dix backdated a memo in an attempt to protect the premier from conflict-of-interest charges. Clark, it was alleged, had traded a renovation to his East Vancouver home from an applicant for a successful casino license.)

“It was my mistake, I take responsibility,” Dix said. “I was 35 years old.” It was a cringe-worthy line—at 35, he was neither young nor inexperienced, and the Liberals pounced, including the clip in a new online attack ad.

7. Being forthright

Where does Dix stand on the labour code? On fracking? On liquefied natural gas? On balancing the budget? Who knows? Details, Dix says, will be revealed after the vote, raising suspicion, and providing further ammo for the Liberals.

Clark’s obsessive faith in liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the province’s salvation may seem tiresome. But at least voters know where she stands on the issue.

Dix, despite insisting he wouldn’t run negative campaign ads, began doing just that three days ago, attacking the Liberals for “years of scandals,” and of “mismanagement and misleading voters.” All fair game—though after months of making hay of his “positive” campaign, it seems a little disingenuous to suddenly reverse that promise. With less than a week to go, look for the NDP to get even more aggressive.

8. The economic climate

Dix may have won endorsements from noted environmentalists like Tzeporah Berman by opposing both proposed pipelines through B.C., pledging to maintain moratoriums on tanker traffic, promising environmental reviews on fracking and calling into question LNG—one of the few bright spots in B.C., beyond the condo market. But it’s a hard sell to regular British Columbians in this economic climate, particularly when Dix is also promising major spending increases. Even support for the Keystone XL pipeline is growing in the U.S., amid polls showing that people’s desperation for jobs outweighs their concerns for the climate.

9. The Canucks early playoff exit

Two years ago, Christy Clark’s government held a referendum on the HST in the middle of the Canucks’ Stanley Cup run. Campaigners had to struggle to be heard through the din. Few tuned in, spoiling door-knocking plans and derailing pro-HST messaging. The harmonized tax, of course, failed on the June 30, 2011, vote.

This week, the city’s beloved Canucks became the first team to exit the playoffs, unceremoniously swept in four straight game by San Jose. All of a sudden, British Columbians are tuning into an election campaign that had, until now, been seen as the second-most important race in town.

10. Polls don’t tell a complete story

Pollsters in recent elections have looked red-faced, notably in Alberta, where they predicted a Wildrose majority in October 2011, only to see the Conservatives returned to power with a comfortable majority. Pollsters similarly didn’t have a clue that the NDP would wipe out the Bloc in Quebec in the 2011 federal election; and the Conservative minority they predicted was actually a comfortable majority for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The Liberals are desperately hoping the Alberta scenario repeats in B.C., where pollsters are still predicting an NDP majority.

With a week to go before writ is dropped, B.C. leaders say they’re ready

By Dene Moore - Tuesday, April 9, 2013 at 10:45 AM - 0 Comments

Andrew Vaughan/CP

VANCOUVER – Losing ground in public opinion and with little more than a week to go before the writ is dropped, British Columbia Premier Christy Clark has drawn on the spirit of the late Margaret Thatcher, promising supporters at a fundraising dinner she’s ready for the upcoming fight.

Before a crowd of 1,800 party faithful who paid a minimum of $400 a plate Monday night, Clark introduced her team of candidates, attacked New Democrat Leader Adrian Dix and promised to balance budgets, eliminate debt and grow the economy through projects like a proposed $25-billion oil refinery in Kitimat, B.C.

Clark, who tied with Newfoundland Premier Kathy Dunderdale as the least popular provincial leader in the country according to an Angus Reid poll, suggested she will lay out her platform in a television address next Sunday, telling voters what direction lies ahead with a Liberal government.

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Christy Clark’s multicultural outreach outrage

By Ken MacQueen - Tuesday, March 12, 2013 at 7:00 PM - 0 Comments

Ben Nelms/Reuters

“Welcome to Bollywood East,” B.C. Premier Christy Clark enthused in January during a glitzy announcement that the province was spending $11 million to host the Times of India Film Awards in Vancouver. Clark dismissed insinuations the April 4-6 event was a sop to Indo-Canadian voters weeks before the May 14 provincial election, calling it “an incredible opportunity for us to sell our province.” But as a series of devastating leaks made clear in the past week, it also now appears part of an effort to buy ethnic votes for the B.C. Liberals with taxpayer funds.

It was a chastened Clark who appeared in Victoria on Monday in an attempt to keep her restive caucus in line, and to face the legislature for the first time since the opposition New Democrats released a leaked draft copy of a 17-page “Multicultural Strategic Outreach Plan,” a strategy to woo ethnic votes that was circulated to senior party insiders and staff, many of whom were collecting a paycheque from taxpayers. Among the strategy’s key points was a plan to issue government apologies for “historical wrongs,” such as the Chinese head tax and the refusal to let Sikhs disembark when their chartered ship, the Komagata Maru, arrived in Vancouver in 1914. Such apologies offer “quick wins” for the Liberals, the document said. The memo was circulated on Jan. 10, 2012, by Kim Haakstad, a Clark confidante and then the premier’s deputy chief of staff.

Clark spent most of question period on Monday admitting the strategy was a disastrous mistake and that she mishandled the resulting furor by sending Deputy Premier Rich Coleman to read her apology in the legislature, instead of doing it herself. “I want to apologize for the ideas in it and I want to apologize for the language in it, as well,” she said. She also said she’ll stand by the future results of an investigation she instigated last week. The lead investigator is John Dyble, who is both head of the public service and deputy minister to the premier.

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The outrage over Christy Clark’s outreach plan

By Ken MacQueen - Wednesday, March 6, 2013 at 12:20 PM - 0 Comments

Ben Nelms/Reuters

“Welcome to Bollywood East,” B.C. Premier Christy Clark enthused in January during a glitzy announcement that the province was spending $11 million to host the Times of India Film Awards in Vancouver. Clark dismissed insinuations the April 4-6 event was a sop to Indo-Canadian voters weeks before the May 14 provincial election, calling it “an incredible opportunity for us to sell our province.” But as a series of devastating leaks made clear in the past week, it also now appears part of an effort to buy ethnic votes for the B.C. Liberals with taxpayer funds.

It was a chastened Clark who appeared in Victoria on Monday in an attempt to keep her restive caucus in line, and to face the legislature for the first time since the opposition New Democrats released a leaked draft copy of a 17-page “Multicultural Strategic Outreach Plan,” a strategy to woo ethnic votes that was circulated to senior party insiders and staff, many of whom were collecting a paycheque from taxpayers. Among the strategy’s key points was a plan to issue government apologies for “historical wrongs,” such as the Chinese head tax and the refusal to let Sikhs disembark when their chartered ship, the Komagata Maru, arrived in Vancouver in 1914. Such apologies offer “quick wins” for the Liberals, the document said. The memo was circulated on Jan. 10, 2012, by Kim Haakstad, a Clark confidante and then the premier’s deputy chief of staff.

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Liberals demand B.C. Premier resignation

By The Canadian Press - Sunday, March 3, 2013 at 10:54 PM - 0 Comments

VANCOUVER – B.C. Premier Christy Clark says she’s got a serious job to do running the province and has left no suggestion she’ll quit before the May election over a leaked strategy to woo ethnic voters that has angered many in her own caucus and enraged others in the B.C. Liberal Party.

Clark appeared calm and confident in a three-minute news conference in front of a crowd of reporters who gathered outside of the downtown Vancouver cabinet office.

“This group is absolutely united and we have a lot of work to do on behalf of the people of British Columbia” she said. “We’re going to get on to that work.”

Clark called her cabinet together Sunday for their first face-to-face meeting since the Opposition NDP released the strategy paper created in January 2012 and aimed at garnering “quick wins” on issues close to the hearts of ethnic voters.

After the almost-three-hour meeting ended, cabinet ministers filed out declaring their support for their leader.

“Christy Clark is our premier. She’s going to be our leader,” said Bill Bennett, minister of sport and culture.

But he added: “We’ve made some mistakes. This last one was a doozy.”

Other cabinet ministers acknowledged the gathering was not a love-in.

“We shared some inner feelings,” said Ben Stewart, minister of citizen services and open government.

“There’s certainly disappointment at so many people close to government involved in these activities.”

Health Minister Margaret MacDiarmid said there was discussion about the “disappointing” strategy.

That was a mild response compared to the one generated across town earlier in the day when a group of Indo-Canadian Liberal members hotly demanded her resignation.

Liberal party member Virkram Bajwa said the leaked document has “made the ethnic vote a joke,” and Clark must leave.

Bajwa, who co-ordinated a breakfast discussion, said 89 party members passed a one-line declaration over concerns the party will be wiped out in the May 14 election.

“In order for us to gain and come back to the government, she has to resign and somebody new has to come and lead the party into elections,” he said in an interview.

Clark issued a letter of apology last Thursday after a plan was leaked that urged the Liberals to co-ordinate resources to focus on winning over ethnic voters.

On Friday, Clark accepted the resignation of her deputy chief of staff, Kim Haakstad, who sent out the 17-page document in January 2012 to eight people working. The Liberal’s have described the document as a draft policy that was never acted on.

Clark apologized again for the document outside of the cabinet meeting.

The document outlines the co-ordination of resources and appears to condone allowing taxpayer-funded government workers to work with the Liberal party on disseminating the strategy.

The leak generated days of Opposition New Democrat criticism over the so-called ethnic wins strategy, which involved capitalizing politically on apologies for historic injustices.

As an example, the strategy described the Liberal government’s 2008 apology for the 1914 Komagata Maru incident in Vancouver as an ethnic win in the Indo-Canadian community.

Almost 380 people from India were denied entry to Canada and their ship stayed harboured in Vancouver for months before returning to India with most of its passengers. Upon arrival in India, a riot erupted and 22 passengers died.

Several other cabinet ministers going into Sunday’s meeting also voiced support for Clark.

“We’re all here to stick together and do our jobs,” said Jobs Minister Pat Bell. “I’m as committed as I’ve ever been to Christy.”

Cabinet ministers Shirley Bond, Terry Lake and Mary Polak also said they expected Clark to lead the Liberals into the election.

Bajwa said the scandal was the major topic of discussion today at the temples in Surrey, and while his fellow party members are not angry, they believe the buck stops with the premier.

“It is important to all ethnic communities in B.C., not to Indo-Canadians only,” he said. “Because during the elections and after the elections, no matter whatever the results are, this is going to be a discussion topic for everybody.

“We don’t want to be discriminated against and disrespected for this reason.”

Bajwa has been a member of the B.C. Liberals for one year and a member of the federal Liberal Party for a decade. In 2011, he unsuccessfully ran for mayor in Surrey, B.C.

Former Langley City Mayor Peter Fassbender, who is the B.C. Liberal candidate in the riding of Surrey-Fleetwood for this May’s election, questioned Bajwa’s motives over the call for Clark’s resignation.

“I’m … a realist and I know we’re in the lead-up to an election, and everyone is looking to anything they can to discredit anybody,” he said in an interview. “It’s unfortunate, but it is the reality of what happens.”

Fassbender said he continues to completely support the premier and believes she has dealt with the issue at hand decisively.

“I think that people are making this and taking this way too far and I think we need to recognize that a mistake was made,” he said.

“I totally agree it was inappropriate, the person that has taken responsibility has resigned.”

Smackdown in Western Canada: Christy Clark vs. Alison Redford

By Tamsin McMahon - Monday, October 29, 2012 at 2:54 PM - 0 Comments

Premier Alison Redford/FLICKR

On the night roughly a year ago when Alison Redford became the first female leader in Alberta’s history, she fielded a call from someone whom many at the time predicted would become one of her greatest political allies. Along with well wishes from Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Redford spoke with Christy Clark, if not B.C.’s first female premier, certainly the woman who has done the most to shake up her province’s political scene.

The conversation was friendly. Clark offered her congratulations and the two joked about just how wrong the pundits had been about both women’s chances of winning the premiership of their respective provinces. “I said, ‘Alison, how did the pollsters get it so wrong?’ ” Clark recalled in an interview with Maclean’s earlier this year. “And she said, ‘Christy, of all the people in the country I can’t believe you’re the one asking me that.’ ”

For many, Redford’s election was considered a win for B.C. After all, the two premiers, part of a growing powerhouse of women in Canadian politics, have some remarkable parallels.

Both are the same age—46—and born in B.C. (Clark in Burnaby, Redford in Kitimat). Both are mothers to preteens—Clark’s son Hamish is 11, Redford’s daughter Sarah is 10. Both were long-time party loyalists who spent time in federal government, Clark working for Chrétien-era transportation minister Doug Young and Redford for Joe Clark. What’s more, both were once married to party stalwarts and maintain close ties with their ex-husbands. So close, in fact, that both recruited their former spouses to work on their campaigns.
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Amanda Todd: shunned in life, remembered in death

By Michael Friscolanti - Tuesday, October 23, 2012 at 9:51 AM - 0 Comments

Mark Blinch/Reuters

In the opening moments of the video, Amanda Todd flashes a brief smile. Fifteen years old, her hair long and curly, she is holding a white piece of paper in front of the camera. “Hello!” it says, in black marker. (The bottom of the exclamation mark is shaped like a heart.) Without saying a word, she flips to the next page in her pile. “I’ve decided to tell you about my never-ending story,” it reads. Again, Amanda Todd smiles.

What transpires over the next eight minutes is utterly heartbreaking. At last count, more than five million YouTube users have watched it unfold.

Using only her printed words, the B.C. teenager recounts the despair and isolation of her adolescence—how a brief encounter with a cyberpredator triggered relentless bullying that followed her from city to city, school to school. “In 7th grade I would go with friends on webcam,” she wrote. “Then got called stunning, beautiful, perfect, etc.” A stranger on the other end asked her to lift up her shirt. “So I did.”

A year later, the man tracked her down on Facebook and threatened to share the footage unless she “put on a show” for him. When Todd refused, she received a knock on her door. “It was the police,” she wrote. “My photo was sent to everyone.” Devastated, she turned to drugs and alcohol. Her friends abandoned her. Later, when she transferred to a different school, the man found her again and shared the pictures with her new classmates. “I can never get that photo back,” she wrote on one of her flashcards. “It’s out there forever.”

Shunned and ridiculed, she ate lunch alone. She enrolled in yet another school—and another. But the bullying and the beatings did not stop. Todd drank bleach, hoping to die. When that didn’t work, she tried to overdose on pills. “Every day I think why am I still here,” she wrote. “I have nobody. I need someone.”

Seven weeks after filming that video, Amanda Todd was found dead. After so many attempts, she had finally managed to kill herself.

Her death has generated headlines around the world, triggering the inevitable rhetoric about anti-bullying strategies and the need for tougher legislation to crack down on seedy Internet predators. Christy Clark, the premier of British Columbia, posted her own video, full of pronouncements about how “bullying has to stop” and “everyone needs to feel safe at school.” But it appears that everyone—from school officials to police to Todd’s own parents—knew exactly what was happening. And that’s what makes this story so tragic: nobody can say they are shocked by the outcome.

Repeatedly, Todd told her own mother that she wanted to die. “We talked about how it would make her family and friends feel worse for a long, long time. She understood that,” said Carol Todd, speaking to a Vancouver radio station. “But with mental health—something didn’t click . . . She was really sad and she didn’t like how she felt. It overwhelmed her.”

There is hope, of course, that Todd’s story can somehow make a difference. Maybe the next bully will think twice. Maybe the next victim will find strength in her plight. Strangers across the country have already organized impromptu memorials for a girl they never met, and dozens of Facebook pages have been launched in her honour. “She was very courageous and I really love that she made that video,” said her father, Norm. “She told me why she made it: she wanted to send a message out so that it wouldn’t happen to someone else, so no one would have to go through what she went through . . . No matter how many haters there are out there, they can’t hurt her now and her message can keep going strong.”

Sadly, there are still haters out there. Even in death, Todd remains a target. One Facebook user uploaded a doctored photo that made her look like a zombie holding a bleach bottle. “I hope they sell Clorox in Hell,” the poster wrote. Another said Todd probably killed herself because “she was lazy.”

The RCMP is investigating—not only the mystery man behind the web cam, but the online commenters who have been trashing her memory. “We’ve got upwards of 20 to 25 full-time investigators that are working on this to try to gain enough information and enough evidence to potentially lay charges,” said one Mountie. (Police have also set up an email address for tipsters: amandatoddinfo@rcmp-grc.gc.ca.

One tip was quickly deemed a priority: Anonymous, the infamous online “hacktivists,” independently posted the name, address and email of the man they say tried to blackmail Todd with her topless photos. They identified the culprit as a 32-year-old New Westminster, B.C., man who—in yet another twist—was recently arrested on unrelated charges of sexual assault and sexual interference of a minor. (Anonymous, it turned out, was completely wrong. The man they fingered had indeed corresponded with Todd online, but he had no involvement in the photos that made her a target—or the bullying those pictures triggered.)

If police do eventually track down the real culprit, it will be too late for Amanda Todd. Even if she was still alive, an arrest may not have prevented her suicide. As she wrote on one of those pages in her video: “What’s left of me now? Nothing stops.”

Running away from the legislature

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 16, 2012 at 10:44 AM - 0 Comments

Peter Loewen condemns Dalton McGuinty’s use of prorogation.

Is McGuinty’s comportment worse than Harper’s? Almost certainly. The Premier has announced he is proroguing the legislature for a substantially longer period of time. Yet he insists that he will govern. Conveniently, he will do so without the hassle of securing opposition support. In the meantime, he will avoid scrutiny over decisions on the energy file that appear worse by the day. And he will step down from the government before the legislature returns. When that will happen remains undefined.

This is not merely a resetting of the clock. It is a wholesale flight from responsibility.

Similarly, Mark Jarvis sees an unfortunate trend.

The premier’s tone and message is reminiscent of Premier Christy Clark, who earlier this fall cancelled the fall term of the British Columbian legislature, leaving an open question as to whether or not it would sit at all before the scheduled provincial election in May. On the opposite coast, the Newfoundland and Labrador legislature reopened this March after having only sat for a total of just 33 days in the previous 14 months.

These actions violate the basic premise of responsible government: that the house or legislature, as the case may be, is actually in session in order to fulfill its fundamental responsibilities: to review government legislation, to scrutinize government administration and to extend or withdraw confidence as it deems fit. These developments should be disconcerting to us all.

Christy Clark’s sex appeal problem

By Emma Teitel - Sunday, September 2, 2012 at 6:00 AM - 0 Comments

Sarah Elder

Q&A: Click here to read Christy Clark’s recent interview with Ken MacQueen

Shoring up support where you don’t have any is a vital part of politics.

It’s what American presidential nominee Mitt Romney is trying to do with Hispanics wary of his immigration policies. It’s what Stephen Harper did in the last federal election with Canadian Jews who shifted from Liberal to Conservative in record numbers.

And it’s what British Columbia’s Liberal premier, Christy Clark, tried to do with the women’s vote when she hosted a strictly female breakfast at a North Vancouver restaurant earlier this summer. The only difference between Clark’s political MO and those of the leaders above is that Clark actually belongs to the group that doesn’t fully support her.

According to a recent Angus Reid survey, only 15 per cent of women voters in B.C. said they’d vote for Clark’s Liberals, while 53 per cent said they’d support the NDP’s Adrian Dix, and 21 per cent said they’d vote Conservative—leaving Clark in last place among the major parties. If an election were held today, it’s very possible she would lose to Dix by a large margin—among women especially. Which is why, perhaps, she thought it would be a good idea to host a women’s-only townhall breakfast. Would that only women had shown up.

When one veteran member of the B.C. Liberals arrived for the session at Browns Socialhouse in North Vancouver on Aug. 2, he was turned away because he was a man. “It was explained to him,” government spokesman Shane Mills told the press, “that we could not accept his cheque—the event was an opportunity for women to meet the premier.”

One of Clark’s justifications for gender-specific events is that “conversations happen differently when it’s just women in the room.” Not everyone agrees.

Since the Browns event, the premier has faced allegations of sexism. It seems her attempt to become more accessible to women has made her a pariah among some men. The Province’s Michael Smith accused Clark of “enthusiastically embracing a ‘no boys allowed’ policy” and labelled her a hypocrite for criticizing the NDP’s gender-equity quota system, one that will reserve certain B.C. ridings for female candidates only. The Canadian Association for Equality—a national “men’s issues” group—is equally miffed. “It’s very divisive to hold a women’s-only group,” says spokesperson Bradley Corbett. “If that happened to a woman it wouldn’t be acceptable.”

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Let the caucus choose

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, August 30, 2012 at 1:00 PM - 0 Comments

Christopher Moore considers the BC Liberals’ current predicament in the context of how party leaders are chosen in this country.

The caucus, having done in Campbell, declined to take responsibility for selecting his successor.  They had one of those vote-buying orgies that are the rule in Canadian political leadership selection. A radio talkshow host, Christy Clark, with NO support from any member of the Liberal caucus, acquired the party leadership. She won a seat in the legislature (just barely) but, with no support from MLAs and no electoral mandate, she has been premier for more than a year. That parliamentary accountability thing….?  Naaah, this is Canada. Turns out the leadership convention’s choice was not so successful. Clark’s Palinesque performance has won few friends, and now she has polling numbers akin to Campbell’s. She too faces abandonment by cabinet and caucus members who never wanted her to be their leader. Latest out the door is leadership runner-up and finance minister Kevin Falcon.

Look where the caucus fire/convention hire system has left the BC Liberals. The caucus could probably muscle Clark out as it did Campbell. Except there must be a provincial election by next spring, so there is hardly time for a traditional leadership race — even if there was any faith that the hey-I-just-bought-a-vote party masses could make a better choice this time.  The whole convention system is simply too inflexible for the pace of parliamentary politics. Stuck with the leader imposed on them, the Liberal MLAs just have to go down in flames .

I’m somewhat torn on this one. I like the idea and the principle that the parliamentary caucus should be empowered to choose its leader. But I suppose the people who join political parties should have something to do. And I’m interested to see how the next Liberal leadership race functions with this new “supporter” thing. What we have is something like a cross between the American system of primaries and the traditional parliamentary system of letting the party caucus decide. And so we should probably choose one. Either we regard our Prime Ministers and Premiers as Presidents (and thus should open leadership elections to a wider vote beyond the card-carrying party membership) or we regard our Prime Ministers and Premiers as parliamentary leaders (and thus we should let the parliamentary caucus decide). And faced with those two choices, I side with the latter.

Update 2:47pm. It’s pointed out to me that Ms. Clark had one supporter in the BC Liberal caucus. He resigned in March.

Isn’t it good, Norwegian oil policy?

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, August 3, 2012 at 10:00 AM - 0 Comments

Thomas Mulcair invoked Norway in May and Christy Clark praised Norway’s approach to pipeline safety last month. Now, the Tyee has dispatched Mitchell Anderson to study the country’s oil policy.

Could the Norwegian model work here? Would industry and investment flee Canada if we were to demand greater oversight and resource rents? This view seems a common refrain from many pundits and politicians, and was a central issue in the last Alberta election. Yet capital flight has never been a problem in Norway. More foreign petroleum companies than ever are lining up to invest billions, while submitting to levels of government oversight and taxation unheard of in Canada.

In fact these conditions seem attractive to investors since from the point of view of the Norwegian population, the development their oil industry has been a consensual act. This national buy-in by the taxpayers of Norway builds investor certainty, in contrast to the unpredictable pitched battles ongoing here in Canada.

‘There’s a difference, I think, night and day between a company that gets public engagement, Aboriginal engagement, environmental stewardship and Enbridge’

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, August 2, 2012 at 4:13 PM - 0 Comments

Heritage Minister James Moore was interviewed by Bill Good yesterday on CKNW in British Columbia about the Northern Gateway pipeline. Mr. Moore was first asked to respond to criticism of how little BC Conservatives have said in response to Christy Clark’s demands and then asked specifically for his thoughts on the proposed pipeline.

Bill Good. So do you think that British Columbia needs to get a much bigger share of the revenue that will be generated by a pipeline if it ever came to be?

James Moore. Well, that’s Christy Clark’s demand and she hasn’t been clear on what actually constitutes a fair share or where the fair share would come from. She’s put five demands on the table, or requests, and many of them, frankly, were already well on their way to being addressed. She knows that. The provincial government knows that. The first three, with regard to environmental assessments, environmental considerations while on land and on the water, those are all things that the federal government has been moving on, we are moving on, and I think those will all be addressed. The aboriginal consultation part is something that coastal First Nations have been very vocal about, will continue to be vocal about, and that needs to be addressed, for sure, by Enbridge, in order for the project to go forward. On the money side, it certainly, of course, it sounds great, as a British Columbian, to say British Columbia should get our fair share and I understand that. But Premier Clark hasn’t been specific about what she’s talking about, how much or where it would come from, so until she’s clear on that, it’s kind of an empty zone to have a debate about this. But I do understand, certainly, the reaction by the rest of the country, when you have one province, who is, geographically, the Pacific gateway for the entire country to the markets of the Asia-Pacific, the perception of us closing the door to the rest of the country doing business with the largest emerging markets in the world, it’s something that’s cause for concern. On the other hand, Christy Clark is very much, I think, in the right in terms of her responsibility to represent British Columbians. To make sure that the rest of the country understands that just because British Columbia is physically the Asia-Pacific gateway, it doesn’t mean that we’re the doormat for companies like Enbridge to think that they can go ahead and do business without having due diligence and taking care of the public’s interest. 

Bill Good. A lot of people would be asking why we are even talking about doing business with Enbridge right now, given their track record, their recent environmental disasters, their what seems to be lack of procedures when it comes to oil spills. Why are we even talking about doing business with that particular company?

Continue…

‘The economic benefits are, in fact, already shared across the country’

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM - 0 Comments

While former environment minister David Anderson rips Enbridge and praises Christy Clark, Joe Oliver declines comment.

Pressure is now building on the federal Conservative government to step in and respond to B.C.’s demands – by stating, among other things, whether Ottawa is willing to share some of the billions of dollars of federal tax revenue that would be generated by the pipeline or pony up cash for environmental protection.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver said Monday that Ottawa has a role to play in pipeline safety and maritime environmental protection, and that “we’re going to fulfil our obligations in that regard.” However, the government doesn’t sound too interested at this time in sharing more of the economic benefits with British Columbia, although it won’t directly state a position on the matter. ”The economic benefits are, in fact, already shared across the country,” Oliver said in an interview with Postmedia News. ”I just don’t want to get into that specific issue at this time.”

Last week, both Jason Kenney and John Baird lamented for the idea that a province would “tollgate” another the movement of another province’s resources.

A report from the Canadian Energy Research Institute projects that the vast majority of tax revenues from three proposed pipelines—Keystone XL, Northern Gateway and Trans Mountain—would go to Alberta.

The Conservative race in Calgary Centre

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, July 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM - 0 Comments

Colin Horgan talked to the Conservative candidates in Calgary Centre last week. John Mar has since begged off, but former PMO advisor Joe Soares has stepped forward to take on the “bland moderate policies” of the other potential nominees.

Joe believes that Mulcair’s socialist high tax and spend anti-Alberta policies will destroy Canada and the people of Calgary-Centre need to send a clear message to the NDP! – Joe does not believe that this can be done with the current nomination candidates with their bland moderate policies. Joe has nothing personally against the other candidates. They seem to be nice people. Joe just doesn’t believe that they can get the job done!

He also seems to really dislike Christy Clark’s position on the Northern Gateway pipeline.

‘Tollgate’

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, July 26, 2012 at 9:36 AM - 0 Comments

Echoing Jason Kenney, John Baird expresses concern with Christy Clark’s stance on Northern Gateway.

“We can’t have a Canada where we try to toll-gate different goods and services in different parts of the country,” Baird told CBC’s Power and Politics. ”Alberta has a great resource, it’s a great resource for Canada, and they obviously have to get that resource to market.”

Central to the Harper government’s response would seem to be an effort to turn tollgate into a verb.

“I am being kind when I call her position ‘disingenuous’”

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 4:44 PM - 0 Comments

Conservative MP Brent Rathgeber questions Christy Clark’s position on the Northern Gateway pipeline.

If she truly believes that the possible risks of a pipeline outweigh the $6B in proposed benefits, than she should oppose it unequivocally.  That is the apparent position of the BC Opposition Leader Adrian Dix; a position shared by federal NDP Opposition Environmental Critic, Megan Leslie.  They oppose the Northern Gateway Project full stop.  I disagree with their position but at least I respect them for taking an unequivocal position and having the courage of their conviction to stand by it.

That is quite different from the position of the BC Premier.  She apparently has environmental concerns.  Fair enough, but she has publically stated that for enough money or BC’s “fair share”, she will give the project her blessing.  The BC Premier is stating that her supposed concern for the environment has an undisclosed price tag.  I am being kind when I call her position “disingenuous”.

Ms. Clark, meanwhile, wants “Alberta and Canada to come to the table and sit down with British Columbia and work to figure out how we can resolve this.”

Picking sides in the great pipeline debate

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 9:49 AM - 0 Comments

Jason Kenney joins the pipeline fight between Alberta and British Columbia.

Kenney, who met with the Times Colonist editorial board, said he does not support the provincial government’s call for a larger share of the estimated $81 billion in tax revenue that would be generated if the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline is approved. ”I think taking a balkanized approach to the federation is unhelpful,” Kenney said. “The notion that there are 10 separate fiefdoms and you have to tollgate everything you move from east to west would massively undermine the whole concept of an economic union and efficient operation of the Canadian economy,” he said.

Christy Clark’s initial gambit is here. Alison Redford’s response is here. And Ms. Clark’s response to Ms. Redford is here.

A pipeline divides us

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, July 24, 2012 at 4:15 PM - 0 Comments

Christy Clark responds to Alison Redford.

“If Alberta doesn’t decide they want to sit down and engage, the project stops. It’s as simple as that,” Clark said in an interview Tuesday. ”So the ball is in Alberta’s court today to decide whether or not they want to sit down.”

…  ”I think it’s a little unreasonable to suggest that I’m trying to destroy confederation. I’m only trying to get B.C.’s fair share out of this project and make sure we’re protecting our environment. It’s as simple as that,” she said. ”It doesn’t have to be some massive project to reopen the constitution for heaven’s sake. That’s just silly,” she added.

The fight over oil is now a fight about Confederation

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, July 24, 2012 at 9:13 AM - 0 Comments

Alberta Premier Alison Redford is unimpressed.

Redford said such an arrangement would be a first in Canada. She said many pipelines that cross Alberta carry resources from B.C., and mused about whether B.C. would be willing to give Alberta a cut of the royalties it earns from those resources. She said Clark is essentially suggesting “that somehow the fundamental fiscal arrangements of Confederation need to change.” “When you start doing that, it means every commercial project in Canada will now become or would become a matter for interprovincial negotiation,” Redford said.

Alberta’s Intergovernmental Affairs Minister chimes in.

“I don’t think that’s a contemplated option,” said Cal Dallas heading into a late afternoon cabinet meeting. “Clearly we need to move all kinds of product around the country through a variety of different infrastructure types and that hasn’t been the way we’ve done business in the past and I don’t believe there’ll be early contemplation of an option of such as you’re describing.”

“We don’t have any history of sharing in uranium in Saskatchewan or the vast mining resources that exist in Ontario and Quebec and certainly with respect to forestry products and the like that move from west to east from British Columbia so the answer is we have a system in place, it’s worked well.”

Northern Gateway: Prerequisites and pie charts

By Aaron Wherry - Monday, July 23, 2012 at 4:58 PM - 0 Comments

BC Premier Christy Clark talks tough about the Northern Gateway pipeline.

“There is a risk to our environment and there is very little benefit to jobs and to our economy and to our province,” she said. “The balance isn’t there for British Columbia today and I don’t think British Columbians will want this project to go ahead until we can find that balance — unless we can find that balance.”

And her government follows that with a set of five prerequisites for pipeline construction—complete with some rather pointed pie charts. The last of those prerequisites is that “British Columbia receives a fair share of the fiscal and economic benefits of a proposed heavy oil project that reflects the level, degree and nature of the risk borne by the province, the environment and taxpayers.”

More from the CBC.

Lake also said B.C. has “insufficient” information to support the Enbridge pipeline at this time, and the province would exercise its right to cross-examine Enbridge at upcoming federal hearings on the proposed pipeline.

B.C. Minister for Aboriginal Relations and Reconciliation Mary Polak said she was unaware of any First Nation in B.C. that supported the project, and it was clear they had real concerns about the project.

Meanwhile, Joe Oliver’s office has released a statement from the minister on “the Harper Government’s Commitment to the Responsible Development of Resources.” Continue…

Harper’s plugged pipeline policy

By Paul Wells - Friday, July 13, 2012 at 3:39 PM - 0 Comments

Paul Sancya/AP

What if the major policy initiative of Stephen Harper’s majority mandate is a non-starter?

This will take some explaining. Let’s begin with a pop quiz. You’re in charge of a big pipe that carries liquid a long distance. One day you notice the pressure inside the pipe is dropping. What on Earth could be making the pressure in your pipe fall?

If it takes you less than 17 hours to answer, “hole in the pipe,” then you would have been much too clever to work for Enbridge in July 2010, when more than three million litres of diluted bitumen gushed out of that company’s pipeline and into the wetlands and rivers near Marshall, Mich. That’s an amount of ethical oil roughly equivalent to the amount of water in an Olympic-sized swimming pool. The oil kept spilling for 17 hours after the initial alarm. By Enbridge’s own rules, the response to a pressure drop should have been to shut the line down until the cause was known, but, you know, whoopsie.

Related:

• Enbridge has a best friend in Ottawa.

Continue…

Place your bets

By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, July 12, 2012 at 10:26 AM - 0 Comments

Thomas Mulcair makes a wager.

“I don’t think the Northern Gateway is on,” Mr. Mulcair said after a news conference in Vancouver. “The smart money is on that project not going through.”

He also says his mind is more or less made up, regardless of what the federal review eventually says.

Meanwhile, B.C. Premier Christy Clark talks tough, while Alberta’s intergovernmental affairs minister sees no reason to change course.