Byelection brouhaha: The final numbers
By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, November 27, 2012 - 0 Comments
The by-election results with changes from the 2011 election in brackets
Durham
Conservatives 50.7 (-3.9)
NDP 26.3 (+5.2)
Liberals 17.3 (-0.6)
Greens 4.1 (-1.3)
Calgary Centre
Conservatives 36.9 (-20.8)
Liberals 32.7 (+15.2)
Greens 25.6 (+15.7)
NDP 3.8 (-11.1)
Victoria
NDP 37.2 (-13.6)
Greens 34.3 (+22.7)
Conservatives 14.4 (-9.2)
Liberals 13.1 (-0.9)
Overall, the Conservatives won the night, but lost a chunk of their vote share in the process.
Conservatives 32.9 (-11.4)
NDP 24.4 (-5.6)
Greens 21.7 (+12.7)
Liberals 19.9 (+3.5)
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Byelection brouhaha: Calgary Centre, Durham and Victoria
By Aaron Wherry - Monday, November 26, 2012 at 9:18 PM - 0 Comments
Welcome to live coverage of tonight’s by-elections in Victoria, Calgary Centre and Durham. Results should start coming in after 10pm when polls close in Victoria. We’ll be here all night (or at least as long as it takes to exhaust whatever drama can be found).
Some numbers by which to measure the night. First, the vote percentages from the 2011 election in each riding.
Durham
Conservatives 54.6
NDP 21.1
Liberals 17.9
Greens 5.4Calgary Centre
Conservatives 57.7
Liberals 17.5
NDP 14.9
Greens 9.9Victoria
NDP 50.8
Conservatives 23.6
Liberals 14.0
Greens 11.6If you combine the 2011 results for those three ridings, the cumulative total divides like so.
Conservatives 44.3
NDP 30.0
Liberals 16.4
Greens 9.09:45pm. Beyond the obvious (who wins?), some questions for tonight. How low does the Conservative vote go in Calgary Centre? How well does the NDP vote from 2011 hold up? Can the Liberals show improvement? Can the Greens make significant gains? Continue…
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Byelection day
By Aaron Wherry - Monday, November 26, 2012 at 8:00 AM - 0 Comments
It’s voting day in Calgary Centre, Durham and Victoria. Information for voters is here. Previous results are here, here and here.
Polls close at 9:30 p.m. EST in Calgary Centre and Durham and 10pm EST in Victoria. We’ll have live coverage here tonight starting around 9 p.m.
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A trio of by-elections
By Aaron Wherry - Sunday, October 21, 2012 at 1:11 PM - 0 Comments
In a release this morning, the Prime Minister announced byelections in Victoria, Calgary Centre and Durham. (A fourth byelection could be necessitated by the Supreme Court’s ruling on Etobicoke Centre this Thursday.) Bob Rae thinks the Prime Minister should’ve waited for the Supreme Court and added Labrador (Peter Penashue’s riding).
As Kady O’Malley notes, the Conservative party’s early line that “majority governments don’t win by-elections” is mostly nonsense. Two years ago, we did the math on the last thirty years of byelections—see here and here—and came to a similar conclusion.
