EKOS Weekly: Zoooooooooom! (Thud.)(39.7/25.7/15.2/9.7/38.7)

By kadyomalley - Thursday, October 8, 2009 at 7:51 AM - 223 Comments

Hey Liberals! Aren’t you glad you weren’t actually able to bring down the government last week? And Tories — oh, come on, admit it:  that ‘nobody wants another election’ talking point has to be starting to stick in your craw right about now. Not only are you firmly planted in just-possibly-depending-how-the-splits-go majority territory, but the Liberals have managed to drop below their 2008 election day support, which up until now was widely thought to be the absolute floor.

So, if you were sitting around the OLO conference room, trying to avoid making eye contact with Ian Davey and wondering if there’s any precedent for senior strategists crossing the floor, what part of today’s EKOS report would you find the most worrying — other than, you know, the numbers?

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EKOS Weekly: Apocalypse? We've all been there. (36/29.7/13.9/10.5/39.6)

By kadyomalley - Thursday, October 1, 2009 at 9:18 AM - 86 Comments

And this, EKOS respondents, is no apocalypse. It’s barely even a blip. Given all the storm and fury over the latest Liberal meltdown, and the even more keen than usual anticipation with which we were awaiting today’s weekly numbers, it’s hard not to see this as a little bit of a letdown, frankly: we media types worked our fingers to the bone trying to whip you into a frenzy over the latest Liberal leadership crisis, and this is the thanks we get?

On the plus side, this week’s bonus round — which included a hodgepodge of questions on Afghanistan, the environment and mandatory voting laws, of all things — is so fascinating that it deserves a post of its very own, although that involves writing it first, so expect one later this morning.

First, though, the national numbers (MoE 1.9):

Conservatives: 36.0 (-1.0)

Liberals: 29.7 (-0.2)

NDP: 13.9 (+0.1)

Green: 10.5 (+0.3)

Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 39.6 (+3.2)

Undecided: 14.3 (-1.3)

Since ITQ has, it appears, turned into an insufferable snob when it comes to poll numbers that haven’t at the very least been broken down by region, she has nothing much to say about the national trend, other than that the only party that appears to have had a truly good week is the Bloc Quebecois, and even that wasn’t nearly as much at the expense of other parties — read: Liberals — as some of us were expecting, particularly when you consider that EKOS was in the field for the climax and aftermath of L’Affaire Coderre.

On that note, let’s move onto the regional results:

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UPDATED: EKOS Weekly (with bonus Nanos): WATCH OUT! It's a runaway train!

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 9:24 AM - 92 Comments

Seven point lead! Seven point lead! Seven point one lead, even, if you want to get all decimal about it! Watch out, semi-mythical majority, the vote-seeking missile that is the Big Blue Machine is locked, loaded and ready to — inch ahead from last week by less than a full percentage point.

Not that they shouldn’t feel good about it, mind you — as any number of commenters will soon be along to point out, it’s the trend that counts, not the actual numbers, and that trend shows slow but steady growth by the Conservatives, while the Liberals remain frozen in amber. (Seriously, you guys, are you playing dead to lull the Tories into a false sense of security? Because at the moment, it’s just a little bit too convincing. Maybe twitch a finger or something, just so the audience knows there’s still a twist in the plot to come.)

And then there’s the NDP. Oh, NDP. After the last few polls showed no post-post-convention plunge despite your leader’s dithering, it was like a mantra: “Look! We’re not slumping! You all predicted slumpage, but hah! No slumpers we! Take that, corporate media! Today, Nova Scotia, tomorrow, the world!”  And then your party lost nine points in a week in Atlantic Canada. The End. On the plus side, look at where all that extra media fussin’ got Elizabeth May and the Greens in British Columbia — into the high teens, that’s where!  Start packing up that ministerial office, Gary Lunn!

Numbers first, followed by more caffeine and toasted pita-powered armchair analysis from ITQ — not to mention that extra dose of substance-fortified Nanos goodness teasered in the headline:

National voter intention (MoE 2.1)
Conservatives: 37 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-)
NDP: 13.8 (-2.7)
Green: 10.2 (+1.2)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 36.4 (-2.5)
Undecided:  15.6 (+2.3)

… and the regional breakdowns:

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EKOS: Deadlock picked? (35.1/29.9/16.5/9.0/38.9)

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 17, 2009 at 8:52 AM - 79 Comments

So, based on these results, as well as the numbers we’ve seen from a few other pollsters whose names do not begin with the letter I,  it looks like we’ve got ourselves a five point gap between the two leading contenders (insert wounded grumbling from already tender NDP supporters here):

Conservatives: 35.1 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-0.9)
NDP: 16.5 (+1.8)
Green: 9.0 (-1.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 38.9 (-0.9)
Undecided/Ineligible: 13.3 (-1.6)

I’ll put up the regionals once I’ve had time to plow through the data tables, but really, the numbers haven’t shifted all that much. Which is kind of surprising, actually, considering all the sound and fury emanating from all sides that marked The Return of Parliament (But For How Long?), not to mention the public uprising that was allegedly brewing over The Election Nobody Wants (And May, As It Turns Out, Have Been Staved Off For The Moment) and, of course,  the dark rumblings over The Anti-Democratic Coalition They Want Even Less (Or So We Are Constantly Informed). Is anyone out there still paying attention, or have y’all (well, not y’all, of course) just given up?

Anyway, once again, the bonus questions provide the most scope for speculation and analysis, at least as far as ITQ is concerned.

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UPDATED: EKOS Weekly – Well, it had to happen eventually: A perfect tie

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 3, 2009 at 8:36 AM - 95 Comments

Seriously — right down to the decimal point. The symmetry is almost beautiful, really, in a madness-inducing way:

Conservatives: 32.6 (-)
Liberals: 32.6 (+1.7)
NDP: 16.5 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 32.3*(-4.8)
Green: 9.9 (-1.4)
Undecided/Ineligible: 15.2 (+0.1)

… and just as ITQ was about to go off on a bitter tirade about mean-spirited, background-data-hording media companies and the polling firms that enable them, the full report popped up in her email, courtesy of EKOS. (Which still doesn’t get CBC off the hook, mind you. As far as ITQ is concerned, it’s just plain wrong to post the topline numbers without regional and demographic breakdowns. Wrong, and evil. ) (Especially the Bloc Quebecois numbers. Honestly, has anyone out there actually developed the ability to mentally convert a meaningless national number for the Bloc Quebecois into its actual standing in the only province in which it matters?)

So, EKOS President Frank Graves, what does it all mean?:

“As the last Parliament drew to a close, the public withdrew a slight but significant advantage that they had bestowed on the Liberals.”

“Irritated by the threat of another election, with little prospect of a qualitatively different parliamentary result, the public gave the Conservatives a slight but significant lead. This small lead persisted through most of the summer. Over the past few weeks the Liberals have drawn into a virtual dead heat, however. Notably the Liberals have also re-established an advantage in the crucial Ontario arena.”

“So as media interest begins to percolate, and the public inevitably and perhaps reluctantly return their attention again to politics, it appears that the race would now be handicapped as “pick ‘em” between the 2 main contenders.”

Hey, for this week — and possibly this week alone — we don’t have to call it a virtual dead heat anymore. It’s official! The heat, it could not possibly be — more deadly? That doesn’t sound right at all, although oddly appropriate, given the political climate at the moment. But if the public was “irritated by the threat of another election” over the summer, what does that auger for the Liberals as far as next week’s results? Or is the irritation meted out equally amongst all parties, on the logic that each and every party one bears some responsibility for the current state of multilaterally assured dysfunction?

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UPDATED: EKOS Weekly: Wait, you're saying we're not supposed to watch the pot boil? That's just crazy talk.

By kadyomalley - Thursday, August 27, 2009 at 9:29 AM - 22 Comments

Look! Movement! Microscropic movement so far within the margin of error that it should probably have its own metananomargin of error, unless that would plunge us into an Escheresque nightmare of ever diminishing circles and possibly shred the very fabric of the space-time-weekly-tracking-poll continuum, yes, but still:

Conservatives – 32.6 (-0.2)
Liberals – 30.9 (+0.7)
NDP – 15.7 (-1.4)
Green – 11.3 (+0.3)
BQ – 9.5 (+0.8) (37.1) (+2.1)
Undecided – 15.1 (-0.7)

Let’s all give a warm macleans.ca welcome back from vacation to EKOS vice-president Paul Adams, who is apparently filling in for the still footloose and fancy free Frank Graves this week:

“All summer the race between the two major parties has been very close – at times within the margin of error,” said EKOS Executive Director, Paul Adams. “In recent weeks, however, the Conservatives have eked out a small numerical lead on the national numbers, based in part on an improvement in their fortunes in Ontario. Ontario was the key to the Liberals’ success in the Chrétien years and it is the key to the party’s future as well. The Liberals now appear to have given up the advantage they held in Ontario through most of the spring and early summer.”

The Liberals have also given up a larger lead to the BQ in Quebec than they usually have in recent
months.

Typically, Canadians – and the media – pay relatively little attention to politics during the summer months, which may account for the relative stability of public opinion since Parliament rose for its summer recess in June.

“None of the parties has had a breakout summer,” said Adams. “However, as the media has begun to rev up for the political season, many commentators have focused criticism on the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff. Because he is relatively less well known to the public than the Prime Minister, he may be more vulnerable to negative commentary.”

Full regional breakdowns, but none of the good stuff that ITQ was totally hoping would become a regular feature HINT HINT EKOS/CBC, available — oh, huh. It’s not up on the EKOS site yet. Well, as soon as it is, I’ll update this post. Feel free to chat amongst yourselves while ITQ inflicts her mercurial math skill on the rest of the numbers.

UPDATE: Regional variations ahoy after the jump:

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