The decline and fall of Canadian democracy

By Andrew Coyne - Thursday, October 23, 2008 at 5:47 PM - 73 Comments

I’ve seen this graph in a couple of places, but as someone sent it to me I’ll post it here. It combines falling turnout with growing electoral fragmentation to track the decline over successive federal elections in the winning party’s “mandate,” expressed not as a share of the popular vote, but of the overall electorate. (Not sure if this means registered voters, or the voting-age population, but it doesn’t make a huge difference either way.)

I haven’t checked the numbers, but they look about right. It’s a pretty depressing picture: governments are now claiming “mandates” with the support of barely two voters in 10.

The Commons: Dream On

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 11:28 AM - 51 Comments

(The Commons returns with a 37th attempt to understand the Stephane Dion Era.)

In the early hours of the last day of his first campaign for Prime Minister, Stephane Dion stood on a makeshift platform in another haphazard campaign office, this one in Fredericton. Outside it was cold and damp. Inside, owing to the spotlights and a hundred supporters, it was just short of balmy.

His stump speech was, by this point, little more than a series of punctuation marks—every second sentence another sound bite demanding applause. And his performance that morning was altogether adequate. His voice rose where it was supposed to, the crowd cheered on cue. But then he got to what is easily his most popular quip.

“He may speak better English than me,” he said of Stephen Harper. “But I speak the truth in both official languages better than him.”

He had delivered variations on this line—self-deprecation twisted into a virtuous boast—maybe a hundred times. It was typically well received, the crowd laughing, then applauding. But this time, for whatever reason, in the final moments of a futile effort, the ovation was longer and louder than usual. Continue…

BTC: They who shall not be named

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 2:24 AM - 19 Comments

It’s going to be a great few weeks for anonymous Liberals.

Globe: Dion’s job in jeopardy as Liberals slide.
CTV: Dion finished as leader.
CP: Defeat means Dion’s days numbered.

BTC: Upon further review

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 2:17 AM - 16 Comments

Forget that bit about Dion appealing for calm. That’s what it looked like from eight feet back. But up closer (and to a national audience) it sounded a bit different.

The Final Day: Fin

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 12:39 AM - 0 Comments

Stephane Dion emerged from the elevator just past midnight, walking fast in a dark suit, his wife at his right, his daughter at his left. Down the hall, past the water fountain, then a left, then another hundred feet and into the first burst of camera flashes and questions. 

“Mr. Dion, can you stay on as leader?”

He kept walking. The mob crushed in close. One of his bodyguards, perhaps a bit protective of Mr. Dion by now, sent a TV correspondent sprawling. Mr. Dion paused briefly to appeal for calm, then kept on.

As he arrived at the ballroom he pulled Janine and Jeanne in close, one arm around each. He waded through his supporters then climbed on stage, waving to the crowd, but unable to muster a smile. In the audience, one of his long-time aides watched with red eyes.

The speech was brief, the crowd quiet, the only sound coming from the dozen cameras clicking at his feet. Up close, his voice bouncing off the walls, his words seemed somehow disembodied.

Unlike the brisk walk on the way in, his exit was slow. A long, silent march back to the elevator, flashes popping in his eyes. Down the hall, turn left, down another hall, turn right. Past the water fountain and the bar and the lobby and then up and away from this.

The Final Day: The concession

By Aaron Wherry - Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at 12:01 AM - 0 Comments

With Duceppe having spoken and Layton speaking now, Dion should be along soon. The audience in front of the stage has filled in some, but it is hardly a large gathering. Maybe 150.

The Final Day: Who's gone

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:59 PM - 3 Comments

A running tally of Liberal incumbents defeated tonight.

Sue Barnes
Susan Kadis
Garth Turner
Karen Redman
Bonnie Brown
Charles Hubbard
Robert Thibault
Paul Zed
John Maloney
Raymond Chan
Brent St. Denis
Ken Boshcoff
Omar Alghabra
Andrew Telegdi
Tina Keeper
Raymond Simard

The Final Day: What's left

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:33 PM - 1 Comment

Still very close: Outremont, Ahuntsic, Guelph, Mississauga Erindale, Kitchener-Waterloo, Kitchener Centre, Vancouver South, Newton North Delta and Brampton West.

May: Bring on the coalition!*

By Martin Patriquin - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:19 PM - 7 Comments

*Elizabeth May was the first party leader to call for a Liberal-NDP coalition. See below.

After losing, Elizabeth May drove the five minutes to Peter Mackay and congratulated him. Then, the lady who served pie while other party leaders scoured for votes marched into her campaign hall behind two bagpipers tooting variations of ‘Scotland The Brave’ as a gaggle of photographers tripped over themselves to get her picture. It was a bizarre scene, a happy-go-lucky funeral march, and it underscored the bittersweet nature of the thing: Never in the history of the Green Party of Canada have people cared so much about a Green candidate losing.

Continue…

The Final Day: Outremont (II)

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:17 PM - 0 Comments

Mulcair goes ahead, for the first time, by 17 votes.

The Final Day: Next

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:14 PM - 0 Comments

CTV is interviewing Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae by split screen. The analysts on all the networks are calling Dion done.

Further to Paul’s post, there’s no indication Mr. Dion will resign tonight. It’s being billed as a “candid” speech, but not a farewell. 

If we assume he’s not automatically disqualified by a loss, then maybe we split hairs, like guessing how many seats the Liberals have to finish this evening with to justify Mr. Dion’s continued existence.

If you wanted to play that game, you might spend the rest of the night watching to see if the Liberals can get back to 80.

The Final Day: Toronto

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 10:47 PM - 0 Comments

Re-elected: Ken Dryden, Martha Hall Findlay, Lui Temelkovski, John McCallum, Derek Lee, Dan McTeague, John McKay, John Cannis, Jim Karygiannis, Bryon Wilfert, Borys W., Maria Minna, Bob Rae, Carolyn Bennett, Alan Tonks, Mario Silva, Michael Ignatieff, Navdeep Bains, Albina Guarnieri.

Leading: Mark Holland, Gerard Kennedy, Gurbax Malhi, Paul Szabo.

New: Bonnie Crombie, Michelle Simson.

Out: Garth Turner.

The Final Day: Keeping score

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 10:35 PM - 0 Comments

Ralph Goodale re-elected. Belinda Stronach’s riding goes to the Conservatives. Bonnie Brown is out.

Looks like Denis Coderre, Raymonde Folco, Marlene Jennings, Irwin Cotler, Bernard Patry, Francis Scarpaleggia, Pablo Rodriguez and Massimo Pacetti will all be re-elected around Montreal.

The Final Day: Early returns

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 10:01 PM - 0 Comments

For the Liberals…

Re-elected: Scott Brison, Todd Russell, Scott Simms, Gerry Byrne, Rodger Cuzner, Lawrence MacAulay, Dominic LeBlanc, Mark Eyking, Geoff Regan, JC D’Amours, Shawn Murphy, Brian Murphy

Out: Charles Hubbard, Robert Thibault, Paul Zed

New: Judy Foote, Scott Andrews.

The Final Day: Breaking news

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 9:41 PM - 1 Comment

We are reliably informed that Stephane Dion is watching the results come in on television with his family.

Liveblogging another brief break in a four-day writing marathon

By Paul Wells - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 9:41 PM - 0 Comments

That is the ugliest election-night set I’ve seen in a while on the CBC. Andrew looks fine, though.

UPDATE: See, I was just about to blog some results, but we’re not allowed yet, are we? OK, sorry. Fun news soon.

9:47 p.m. Eastern: Good talent on the weird Linoleum maple-strewn CBC set, though. Anderson, Herle, Rick Mercer looking at his Blackberry…. oh, things are happening. There are things happening.

10:03: OK, you don’t need my help. I have more writing to do for the magazine. Let’s chat tomorrow, OK?

The Final Day: Context

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 9:02 PM - 0 Comments

Liberal leaders to lose their first national campaign.

Alexandre Mackenzie.
Edward Blake.
Wilfred Laurier.
Lester B. Pearson.
John Turner.

The Final Day: Ominous sign of the night

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 8:30 PM - 0 Comments

A reporter in the row ahead of me was just reviewing the Wikipedia entry for Edward Blake.

The Final Day: Progress Air

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 8:27 PM - 2 Comments

While we await results (or at least the opportunity to report results), would you like to hear about the final leg of the Liberal tour? Don’t answer that.

First, despite fears that we might have to stop to refuel in Regina, the tail winds were properly aligned and our Air Inuit plane managed to go the whole trip on a single tank of gas. Before boarding there were photos with staff and reporters on the tarmac. Once on board, someone cranked the volume on the stereo and something of a dance party broke out to the strains of Stay (Just A Little Bit Longer).

Breakfast included eggs, potatoes, sausage, fruit and an apple danish. There was another raffle (I won a coffee table book to go with yesterday’s prize, an Air Inuit duffle bag). And then Mr. Dion came to the back of the plane to offer a few final words on his appreciation for freedom of the press.

Before we landed, there was a bit of a pillow fight in the rear cabin. The landing was typically adventurous (to any pilots who may be reading this, is it normal to accelerate into the landing?).

Mr. Dion spent some of the ride going back-and-forth with his top aides, at work on tonight’s speech. (I’m told there are multiple versions in play, or least various sections that may or may not appear depending on tonight’s exact result.)

Steamer alert

By Martin Patriquin - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 6:57 PM - 3 Comments

Come election time, being Minister of National Defense has its advantages. Instant credibility with the troops–and, to a certain extent, the voting public–is key among them. So it’s natural enough that Peter MacKay’s people would drape his party headquarters with an outsized poster of the troops being the troops, complete with several multi-coloured Sharpies to sign the thing with. It takes up an entire wall, and will no doubt be the backdrop for several crowd shots this evening.

Whoever chose the picture for the above poster, though, is either clueless or has a wicked sense of humour. (Or they are making light of MacKay’s cynical use of the military as a campaign tool, but I doubt it.) Look a little closer (but not much; it’s friggin’ huge) and you’ll notice one of the soldiers is standing next to a sign reading ‘CLEAVLAND [SIC] STEAMER.’

Now, this is a family magazine, so under no circumstances will we ever, ever tell you what a ‘Cleveland Steamer’ is. I’ll leave that to the Internet. Hint: It ain’t big with the family values crowd.

The Final Day: Scene of the thrill or agony

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 5:47 PM - 0 Comments

The Liberals have set up in a ballroom at the Four Points Sheraton near the airport in Montreal. Glass chandelier in the middle of the room, a big screen on either side of the stage and 16 Canadian flags behind the podium.

Less impressive, the first review for this hotel at Tripadvisor.com.

“The room was a little shabby but not terrible. The food was better than expected. The big problem was the (medium-sized) mouse that I found rustling around in my purse and luggage at 2 am. The hotel comped my room; they couldn’t switch me because the hotel was full. It made for an unsettling night, to say the least.”

The Final Day: Montreal

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 5:23 PM - 0 Comments

So we get off the plane in Montreal. Half of us board the bus for the hotel, the photographers and a wire reporter go with Mr. Dion to his designated polling station. The sole purpose of that trip is to record the iconic image of politician casting a ballot for himself. And so it was apparently to some consternation that Mr. Dion did not turn around when he deposited his ballot, shoving it through without hesitation or pose and with his back to the cameras.

I’m told only one still photographer, positioned on the other side of Mr. Dion, got the shot.

UPDATED AGAIN: If Sun Tzu had access to a demon dialer …

By kadyomalley - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 12:45 PM - 62 Comments

… this is totally the kind of thing he’d include in the second edition of Art of War. otherwise, I can’t imagine who could possibly come up with an election eve strategy as evilly brilliant – or brilliantly evil – as the one that apparently played out in the race underway in Saanich-Gulf Islands on Thanksgiving Monday – spotted by the force of nature that is National Newswatch, of course:

A number of residents in the Saanich-Gulf Islands riding received recorded telephone messages Monday, urging them to vote for NDP candidate Julian West – who left the race after controversy over a public-nudity incident 12 years ago.

Irene Wright, executive member of the NDP’s federal riding association for Saanich-Gulf Islands, said Monday night people started phoning her around 5 p.m. to say they had received an automated call encouraging them to vote for West in Tuesday’s election.

A woman’s voice in the recording said the call was endorsed by Bill Graham, president of the NDP Saanich-Gulf Islands riding association, and from the “Progressive Voters Association of Saanich-Gulf Islands.”

By using caller identification information, the call’s origin appeared to be the fax number at Graham’s address.

“It’s not coming from our fax machine,” said Graham. “Somebody is fraudulently using our name and our fax number to send out a misleading message.”

UPDATE: Is it just me, or does anyone else find it odd that nowhere in this story does it mention the fact that this is Gary Lunn’s riding?

AND EVEN UPPERDATED: The Tyee has more, including an on-the-record denial from Lunn’s campaign chair, Byng Giraud.

NOTE: Reposted from the comments, just to make it clear what I’m saying here: This has nothing to do with the use of a demon dialer – which, while obnoxious, is a perfectly legitimate campaign strategy. But this appears to be a deliberate attempt to frame the NDP for making calls supporting West’s candidacy, which the local NDP organizer – whose number apparently appeared on the calls  -categorically denies having done.

The Final Days: Vancouver

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 1:42 AM - 4 Comments

About an hour outside of Vancouver, Stephane Dion and Janine Krieber rose from their front row seats and made their way towards the back of the plane, bearing cookies for the traveling press corps. After the treats had been delivered, the couple lingered for awhile.

Within five minutes, Dion had produced a book he was reading and was showing reporters a bar graph he found particularly interesting. Krieber made small talk with a few francophone reporters, chatting happily for maybe 15 minutes longer than her husband lasted. Dion reappeared briefly to award the grand prize (a pair of hockey tickets) in an onboard raffle.

He did not appear particularly stressed or burdened. Perhaps a bit tired. Shy, but perhaps no more sheepish than usual. Continue…