Tony Clement needs you (III)

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, July 16, 2010 at 12:55 PM - 0 Comments

Still no responses to my call for economists, statisticians, city planners and the like to step forward with a defence of the Industry Minister’s census changes. So let’s open it up a bit: is anyone from a conservative-minded organization or advocacy group willing to step forward and defend this decision as sound and just?* I welcome any and all submissions (aaron.wherry@macleans.rogers.com).

In the meantime, add former clerk of the Privy Council Alex Himelfarb, pollster Frank Graves, the chief economist of the Greater Halifax Partnership, the French Language Services Commissioner of Ontario, the executive director of the Société franco-manitobaine, the editorial board of the Halifax Chronicle-Herald and provincial officials in Quebec, BC and PEI to the listen of complainants.

*This post originally, and innocently, named a few potential examples of organizations that might comment. One—the Institute for Liberal Studies, which is actually directed by a guy I knew in high school—has noted that its educational and charitable status actually precludes it from commenting. Apologies for any confusion that could have resulted from my mentioning them here. I’ve also deleted all names so as not to otherwise make it seem like any sort of specific challenge. As you were.

The next great leader

By Aaron Wherry - Saturday, March 27, 2010 at 1:23 PM - 96 Comments

The Mark convenes a number of political actors and observers to discuss the best leaders of Canadian history and, amid the expected salutes to Macdonald, Pearson, Douglas and the like, pollster Frank Graves speculates on what will define the next great prime minister.

Gen X and Gen Y see little of relevance to them in the federal government. They are less interested in ethics, crime, security, and health care, and more interested in climate change and a post-carbon economy, knowledge and skills, human rights and internationalism. In order to build a federal state that is focused on both the future and the present (and less the past), our next leader should be drawn from the half of Canadians under the median age of 41…

It might also be appropriate to find someone who reflects the growing diversity of Canada, and perhaps it isn’t too much to expect that as over half of Canadians are women we might eventually get around to electing a woman PM.

Ladies and gentlemen, Canada’s next great prime minister.

The courageous politician

By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, March 16, 2010 at 10:03 AM - 38 Comments

From an EKOS poll on emotion, intelligence and politics.

Which of the following emotions would you most like to see in a politician?

Courage 34%
Empathy 23%
Compassion, Caring 21%
Hope, Optimism 18%

UPDATED: EKOS spin-off post: Who's the rich, urban internationalist now, Patrick Muttart?

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM - 27 Comments

(Sorry, sorry; just couldn’t resist, given how he characterized the new Liberal ad campaign last month.)

Anyway, given all the excitement over the metropolitan breakdowns in the latest EKOS weekly, which seemed to show the Conservatives poised to paint both Bay Street and the Byward Market blue, ITQ asked EKOS pollster-in-chief Frank Graves if he could provide a little more detail on just what those numbers might mean. Obliging soul that he is, he did:

The Ottawa numbers are quite striking although , as in the case of Toronto, they are an amalgam of the CMA. This is how Statistics Canada defines metropolitan areas but it includes both the metropolitan core and the outer lying suburban and ex-urban areas. In the case of Ottawa this also includes a sizable rural area as the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA is a huge geographical area. Clearly there are major difference between those living in the downtown areas and those living in the dormitory communities on the fringes. In recent history, and this is still largely the case the Conservatives do very poorly in the downtown core. This echoes a similar finding in the United States where Republicans also fare very poorly in the largest metropolitan centers , The Conservatives are much more competitive in the outlying suburban neighbourhoods which include a greater concentration of young families . The Conservatives also do much better in the rural areas of these CMA districts.

Our data are aggregated to the CMA level and we don’t have sufficient cases to break them down reliably by say the 416/905 portions. It may be the case that nothing has changed in the down town metro areas but the CPC has really taken off in the 905 areas.

At some point we may aggregate our data over several reporting periods and take a look at this but at this point it is unclear where the progress is being made by the Conservatives.

One interesting note is that hasn’t been picked up is that the CPC vote is far more committed than the Liberal vote at this point and that should yield a significant advantage at the ballot box. It is also interesting to see that (despite the limited sample size) Ottawa is the hot bed of political commitment in Canada.

The fact that the CPC polled ahead of the LPC in the Toronto CMA is interesting but certainly the aggregated CMA data don’t tell us that downtown Toronto has become a Tory stronghold . It is entirely possible that nothing has changed in downtown Toronto . The coming weeks will tell us whether the rising Conservative fortunes are stable or based on continued public umbrage at the thought of being summoned to the polls yet again, and where those gains are being carved out.

In other words, Bob Rae’s seat is probably safe … for now. (Do the Conservatives have a candidate in that riding yet? I swear, if there’s one out of town all-candidate meeting that ITQ would gladly make the trek to cover, that would be the one.

UPDATE – Now that’s pollster service that goes above and beyond the call of duty: In response to a question that arose in the comments over the Ottawa/Gatineau numbers, Frank Graves checked with the researchers, and confirmed that the results refer only to the Ottawa side of the CMA.

UPDATED: EKOS Weekly – Well, it had to happen eventually: A perfect tie

By kadyomalley - Thursday, September 3, 2009 at 8:36 AM - 95 Comments

Seriously — right down to the decimal point. The symmetry is almost beautiful, really, in a madness-inducing way:

Conservatives: 32.6 (-)
Liberals: 32.6 (+1.7)
NDP: 16.5 (+0.8)
Bloc Quebecois: 32.3*(-4.8)
Green: 9.9 (-1.4)
Undecided/Ineligible: 15.2 (+0.1)

… and just as ITQ was about to go off on a bitter tirade about mean-spirited, background-data-hording media companies and the polling firms that enable them, the full report popped up in her email, courtesy of EKOS. (Which still doesn’t get CBC off the hook, mind you. As far as ITQ is concerned, it’s just plain wrong to post the topline numbers without regional and demographic breakdowns. Wrong, and evil. ) (Especially the Bloc Quebecois numbers. Honestly, has anyone out there actually developed the ability to mentally convert a meaningless national number for the Bloc Quebecois into its actual standing in the only province in which it matters?)

So, EKOS President Frank Graves, what does it all mean?:

“As the last Parliament drew to a close, the public withdrew a slight but significant advantage that they had bestowed on the Liberals.”

“Irritated by the threat of another election, with little prospect of a qualitatively different parliamentary result, the public gave the Conservatives a slight but significant lead. This small lead persisted through most of the summer. Over the past few weeks the Liberals have drawn into a virtual dead heat, however. Notably the Liberals have also re-established an advantage in the crucial Ontario arena.”

“So as media interest begins to percolate, and the public inevitably and perhaps reluctantly return their attention again to politics, it appears that the race would now be handicapped as “pick ‘em” between the 2 main contenders.”

Hey, for this week — and possibly this week alone — we don’t have to call it a virtual dead heat anymore. It’s official! The heat, it could not possibly be — more deadly? That doesn’t sound right at all, although oddly appropriate, given the political climate at the moment. But if the public was “irritated by the threat of another election” over the summer, what does that auger for the Liberals as far as next week’s results? Or is the irritation meted out equally amongst all parties, on the logic that each and every party one bears some responsibility for the current state of multilaterally assured dysfunction?

Continue…

Something's happening to my cell phone. I keep getting an Ekos.

By Paul Wells - Monday, June 1, 2009 at 1:13 PM - 11 Comments

Frank Graves, president of Ekos, sent this note on what ITQ readers will already know is a fairly poll-intensive day. Graves argues for his methodology and promises more poll-related fun over the next few days.

Hi Paul

I think the real value and implications of this poll may be missed. It has a huge sample. As you know it also includes cell phones( i believe you received a call from our robot). [True story — pw] One unreported finding is that those who don’t include the growing cell only population (nearly one in four households in the United States now and Canada is trailing but following that pattern) will have increasing difficulties covering key parts of the population . Liberal supporters, for example, are higher in the cell only segment. This trend to cell only households is also much more pronounced in Quebec adn amongst 18 to 40 year olds of moderate and lower socioeconomic status.

What is unusual, and we think valuable about the poll is the ability to drill down and get a very detailed demographic and regional profile of the eligible voter population. Continue…

Long-time listener, first-time voter? You have company that skews in interesting demographic ways. Hear now the wisdom of Ekos, young man or woman!

By Paul Wells - Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 3:07 PM - 10 Comments

You had so much fun with the Ekos cross-tabs yesterday that you’ll probably be interested in pollster Frank Graves’s commentary today, which looks at one category of voters who “did not vote” in the last election: Those who weren’t 18 yet and will be voting for the first time. His conclusion: The Green Party does well among  first-time voters (or it will if they actually vote); the NDP does fairly well too; and the Conservatives don’t fare too badly. The Bloc and the Liberals, however, are essentially failing to excite first-time voters.