EKOS: "Huge divisions over current political crisis"

By kadyomalley - Thursday, December 4, 2008 at 5:31 PM - 83 Comments

Tables and other data here, although the release doesn’t include the regional breakdown for the Big Question:

Q. The Conservative government of Stephen Harper will likely be defeated when Parliament next
has an opportunity to vote. The opposition parties want to replace the Conservatives with a
coalition made up of Liberals and New Democrats led on an interim basis by Stéphane Dion.
Based on this, which of the following is closest to your view?

The proposed coalition of Liberals and New Democrats replacing the Conservative government
within the next few week: 28%

Parliament taking a breakfor a month or so to see whether the Conservatives can get the confidence of parliament when it comes back into session: 37%

An election to be called within the next few weeks to break the impasse: 19%

DK/NR: 16%

So much for Harper's French-kissing skills

By Philippe Gohier - Thursday, December 4, 2008 at 4:27 PM - 16 Comments

The graphic above, lifted from the Conservative website (hat tip to the indefatigable Elizabeth Thompson for pointing it out), is interesting for a couple reasons:

(1) It highlights just how much the Conservatives have relied on the Bloc to stay afloat in Ottawa. And…

(2) It shows just how much the Conservatives’ relationship with Quebecers has changed over the last couple of days.

Continue…

Poll: Canadians worry about separatists

By Philippe Gohier - Thursday, December 4, 2008 at 12:13 AM - 6 Comments

“This is no time for backroom deals with the separatists,” Prime Minister Stephen Harper gravely intoned in his televised address to Canadians Wednesday night. And in the struggle for his government’s very survival, Harper’s repeated dire warnings about the corrosive effects the Bloc Québécois could have on federal politics appear to have hit a nerve.

A Léger Marketing poll released the same day found 41 per cent of respondents are “very concerned” by the prospect of a coalition government propped up by Quebec’s sovereignist federal party. A further 19 per cent conceded they were “somewhat concerned” with the notion. Not surprisingly, most of the opposition is concentrated outside Quebec. In fact, only 39 per cent of Quebecers expressed any concern at all; outside the province, that figure climbed to 70 per cent.

Under a deal reached on Monday between the opposition parties, a Liberal-NDP coalition would take over for the Conservative government with the expressed support of the Bloc, which has agreed not to vote it out of office for at least 18 months. The unusual accord nonetheless finds Gilles Duceppe propping up a government headed by Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, a man widely derided by sovereignists in Quebec for his singular role in promoting the Clarity Act. But Duceppe has defended the move as being “in the best interests of Quebec, of Quebecers during this time of economic difficulties.”

In return, Duceppe has asked that a Liberal-NDP government increase its transfers to his home province. The Bloc has requested $820-million in extra money for education, $400-500-million of which would come in its first budget. The remaining funds would be delivered the following year.

However, some prominent figures of the sovereignist movement aren’t impressed with the deal. Like Canadians outside Quebec, they would rather see the Bloc abstain from participating in the federal government. “When I voted for the Bloc in the last election,” writes Victor-Lévy Beaulieu, one of the province’s most celebrated and prolific authors, “it was above all because I didn’t want Stéphane Dion to become prime minister at any cost.”

But the Bloc Québécois might not have as tough a sales job as its opponents; both Pauline Marois and Jacques Parizeau have, after all, already endorsed the proposed coalition. The Conservatives, on the other hand, are finding themselves on the defensive over rumours about their own past dealings with sovereignists. According to a Globe report published Wednesday, under the leadership of Stockwell Day, the Canadian Alliance had once sought similar support from Duceppe’s party back in 2000–proof, perhaps, that while the Bloc might not have convinced Canadians of their usefulness, they appear to have convinced their rivals parties otherwise.

The Governor-General's options

By Susan Mohammad - Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 7:00 PM - 3 Comments

Tomorrow, Governor-General Michaëlle Jean will likely meet privately with Stephen Harper, where it’s expected he will ask her to terminate, or prorogue, the current session of Parliament. The gambit would allow Harper to dodge a non-confidence vote scheduled for Monday, and thus avoid the humiliation of watching his seven-week-old government go down in defeat in the House of Commons.

Prorogation is Harper’s best bet for survival. However, requesting that the Governor-General suspend Parliament in order to allow the federal government to dodge a motion is unprecedented and Jean might not go for it. In fact, she’s already got another proposal on the table should she lean toward sending Harper back to the wolves: The Liberals and NDP want to take over from the Conservatives and govern with a coalition. But that’s just as unusual a solution as granting Harper’s request for a prorogation—and no less likely to silence critics of the Governor General’s role in the mess. So, what’s a Governor General to do?

Canadians, for what it’s worth, appear tempted by the thought of prolonging the misery. A national opinion poll by Angus Reid Strategies found 52 per cent of Canadians oppose proroguing Parliament; the same proportion opposes a Liberal-NDP coalition; and 68 per cent want nothing to do with another federal election campaign. So much for the wisdom of crowds.

Meanwhile, constitutional experts have been speculating all week over what Jean can (or will, or even should) do. Here’s a rundown of her options:

1) Grant Harper’s request to prorogue Parliament. This would allow the Conservatives to regroup and present a budget at the end of January, effectively a re-do for Jim Flaherty’s after his unusually combative fiscal update launched the current crisis. There are two major problems with this approach: it’s unclear whether the government would be any more stable in January than it is now; and it would leave Canada without an effective government for nearly two months while a financial crisis ravages the country’s economy.

2) Deny Harper’s request to prorogue Parliament and let his government face a non-confidence motion next Monday. This, in other words, is Jean’s “walk the plank” option. Harper’s government is facing a bulletproof non-confidence motion, scheduled for next Monday and supported by every opposition party in the House. The Conservatives are almost assured of defeat. Should the seemingly inevitable happen, Jean would still face a tough decision: Either she sends Canadians back to the polls, or she allows Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton to seize the reins of government. No one wants an election, but denying a request for prorogation and then installing a coalition seems destined to spark a messy Constitutional debate.

3) Allow a conditional prorogation. The Governor-General can make use of her reserve powers (her power to make decisions without the approval of another branch of government) to place conditions that severely restrict Harper’s authority until Parliament returns. For example, she could implement rules similar to those in place during election campaigns, during which a government can only operate on a basic level and can’t institute new policies or make appointments.

Live from Langevin Block, it's your pretaped PM!

By kadyomalley - Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 6:07 PM - 230 Comments

… from the Metropolitan, of all places, where a previously scheduled Wonderful Wednesday reception hosted by Bob Rae seems to have transformed into a multipartisan mass watch-in of the most anticipated political event of the last twelve or so hours.

6:45:10 PM
Yikes. Sorry about the delay, y’all – I forgot that the Met is also unofficially known as the Blackberry Bermuda Triangle — for some reason, it’s nearly impossible to get a signal anywhere other than by the door, or in the lobby of the apartment next door, or any number of other incredibly awkward spots to stand, particularly if you’re liveblogging. But ITQ will soldier on, because the people of Canada deserve no less.

Anyway, it is *packed* here tonight – mostly Liberal at the moment, but a few outposts of Torydom. The rumour – and I should stress that this is a rumour and not a coy embargo breaking, since I haven’t yet received the usual advance copy of the speech – is that he will “take a shot across the bow” of … Rideau Hall. Yes, that Rideau Hall. Which, if true, will mark a new high point in unsettling surreality for Canadian politics. I — can’t wait? Well, at least it will be interesting.

6:51:30 PM
Can I say, by the way, that this has been, hands down, the most amazing, incredible, astonishing time to be covering the Hill that I can remember – and contrary to what certain people – ahem, Olaf – might suggest, I’ve been around for a while. Whatever happens, I wouldn’t trade the last week of my professional life for anything.

Continue…

While the GG is in the air, the PM plans to take to the airwaves …

By kadyomalley - Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM - 68 Comments

CBC Newsworld is reporting that the PM will, indeed, “address the nation” at 7pm tonight. The opposition will ask for equal time to reply. As soon as I know more, I’ll let y’all know. I guess this means ITQ will be hanging around outside Rideau Hall tomorrow morning, huh?

Another trip down minority government memory lane – this time, with Jack Layton

By kadyomalley - Wednesday, December 3, 2008 at 9:16 AM - 76 Comments

Remember that letter that the three then-opposition leaders sent to the Governor General in 2005? Well, here’s what happened next, according to one of the “Three Amigos” himself:

The “Three Amigos,” as the media dubbed us, worked on other reforms as well. Gilles Duceppe wanted all the changes we had agreed upon to be put forward in an amendment to the Speech from the Throne. As the most experienced Opposition leader, he clearly wanted to move into the driver’s seat, and successfully did so for the first couple of meetings. Forcing the Liberals to accept our recommendations as an amendment to the speech from the throne amounted to a game of parliamentary “chicken.” If the government refused, Mr. Duceppe pointed out, the three parties had enough votes to ensure its defeat. Waiting outside Mr. Harper’s office for our meeting to begin, I asked Mr. Duceppe what he thought would happen if the prime minister refused to accept such an ultimatum. He replied that a government defeat so soon after a general election meant the Governor General would then have to turn “to one of us” to form a government. We both knew that meant Stephen Harper and his Conservatives. I asked Mr. Duceppe if he could accept such an eventuality. He was not only clear that he could, but he would. Continue…

From the PMO press office: "A paid message from Canada's Conservatives"

By kadyomalley - Tuesday, December 2, 2008 at 11:59 AM - 92 Comments

Passed along by the Prime Minister’s office, according to Kory Teneycke, in order to “[share] them with the public along with other information  on 3rd party efforts to oppose this undemocratic coalition with the separatists”.

RADIO ADS.

Karine Leroux

Office of the Prime Minister / Cabinet du Premier ministre
Deputy Press Secretary / Attachée de presse adjointe
[contact info redacted]

2 attachments — Download all attachments
No coalition (Stephane Dion).mp3
1199K   Play   Download
No coalition (Separtists).mp3
1201K   Play   Download

I’m sure they’ll be up on the Conservative website soon enough, at which point I’ll add a link to the files themselves. Until then, you’ll just have to use your imaginations based on the evocative file names.

Not with a bang but a press conference: Liveblogging the launch of the coalition government-in-waiting

By kadyomalley - Monday, December 1, 2008 at 3:45 PM - 255 Comments

For Immediate Release
December 1, 2008

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion, New Democrat Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe will hold a press conference

Date: Monday, December 1, 2008
Time: 4:30 PM
Location: Railway Room
253-D Centre Block
Ottawa, Ontario

Please note that all details are subject to change. All times are local.

- 30 -

This thing really does need a name, lest it become known forever as This … Thing, as one of my colleagues who shall remain meganameless insists on calling it. (For the record, he’s not against it, he just can’t seem to help himself from referring to it that way.)

Anyway, check back at 4:30 or so for full livebloggalicous coverage, live from the Railway Room – unless, of course, the PM pulls the procedural fire alarm and prorogues the House sometime between now and then.

4:19:43 PM
It’s sort of fitting, really, that the first official news conference with the coalition partners would take place here, in a committee room — after all, it was at committee where the opposition parties first “rediscovered their majority”, as NDP strategist Brad Topp put it the other day. “This is far from routine,” notes Senator David Smith as he squeezes past me into one of the four rows of seats for the media. There are a few MPs mingling with the mob of milling journalists – Derek Lee, Olivia Chow – but I think most of them are likely upstairs at the cameras-only photo op where the leaders will sign the satanic pact of ultimate evil, otherwise known as the Sunshine and Rainbows Accord. Okay, I made that up.

Right now, NDP communications director Karl Belanger is explaining the rules, which I managed to totally miss until the end, when he asked us to limit ourselves to one question. Oh, how quickly the mask falls when they get a taste of power!

4:27:53 PM
Apparently, The Triumverate is on its way down from Dion’s office, which is where the photo op took place. (What? That’s the correct use of the term, isn’t it?)

I have to say that the setting for this particular event could be more — dramatic, somehow. There is a long table — half of a committee table, I believe — on a riser, three ubiquitous green chairs, three microphones blinking red and three glasses of water.
Three for one and three for all!

4:32:45 PM
Other suggestions: the Unholy Trinity, the Three-Headed Beast, the Troika. I feel a poll coming on!

Cereberus! That’s the three-headed dog, right?

4:35:57 PM
Apparently, every now and then, you can catch a glimpse of me liveblogging on the live feed on the networks. Hi, everyone! Yes, I’ll stop being all meta soon.

4:38:52 PM
Okay, apparently the Agreement is out now, not that this means much for my coverage, since I can’t type the whole thing out between now and whenever the Triptyche turns up. Sigh. Choices, choices.

4:42:24 PM
I realize now that I have never actually read another Accord on a Cooperative Government to Address the Present Economic Crisis, so I have no frame of refereence for this one. It seems — fairly reasonable? If a tiny bit unrealistic if only for the somewhat adorably naïve inclusion of “A “no surprises” approach” although one that is “within the limits of common sense and the needs of cabinet government.”

4:47:17 PM
And – they’re here! And signing! And looking very, very serious about governing!

4:47:51 PM
Stephane Dion looks taller, somehow. Maybe it’s the haircut – or the aura of history that now surrounds him, for better or for worse.

I just realized that the (current) Prime Minister has been largely incidental to the day’s events. That must drive him absolutely bonkers.

Continue…

Just another sleepy Monday on the Hill

By kadyomalley - Monday, December 1, 2008 at 2:07 PM - 48 Comments

Man, if only we could get some excitement around here:

Opposition deal would oust Harper, pour billions into economy

December 1, 2008 – 14:00

THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA – Opposition parties have reached a tentative deal that would see Liberal Leader Stephane Dion take over as interim prime minister and pump billions of dollars into the economy.

But some hurdles still stand in the way of the plan to oust Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s minority government next week.

The Liberal caucus agreed Monday to support the tentative deal and allow Dion to take over as prime minister until a new leader is picked next spring.

“We’ve decided that the only person and the best person to lead and form a coalition government is the elected leader of our party … Stephane Dion,” said leadership hopeful Dominic LeBlanc.

“We are comfortable with that, we support that and we think that’s right.” [...]

For those of you just tuning in…

By kadyomalley - Monday, December 1, 2008 at 10:35 AM - 31 Comments

Complete Macleans.ca coverage of the Conservative government’s crisis of confidence – from rumour to reality to rampant speculation.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

What does this mean?

Thursday, November 27, 2008
Godspeed and farewell, NSOC(tm)*
ITQ Political Book Club: A little light reading before the games begin …
Putting the FUn back into the Fiscal Update
And now for the fall economic update
Getting politics off the dole
Why Charest should be annoyed with Ottawa for threatening the Bloc
Prime Minister Dion?

The short version

Continue…

You think it's easy making rebel alliances?

By Paul Wells - Sunday, November 30, 2008 at 10:19 PM - 55 Comments

A note of caution regarding reports that this evil devil’s pact among separatists, socialists and compromisers is a done deal. I am given to understand, from plural anonymous sources, that Dominic Leblanc, Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae are meeting at this very instant in Toronto, at Rae’s behest. The tiny perfect ex-Premier is urging his colleagues to “get behind this deal and get behind Stéphane Dion.” You can assume the main target of this pitch is Michael Ignatieff, who — here the picture gets fuzzy — is said to be (a) leery on the idea of Dion leading this thing; or (b) leery on the whole idea of an evil devil’s pact; or (c) floating in a stew of mixed messages and conflicted helpers. Or (d) artfully seeming to be floating in a stew of mixed messages and etc., etc., the better to catch the weak off guard.

“If it falls apart, that’s where it will happen,” one of my nameless informants said about the Toronto meeting among the Liberal hopefuls.

Rae’s pitch is that the Liberals have a process for selecting a leader and that until that process reaches its conclusion at the May Vancouver convention, Stéphane Dion is the leader and should enjoy the prerogatives of leadership, such as presiding over evil devil’s pacts, should any arise.

By tomorrow you’ll know how it all ended, but I just wanted to say that some confusion remains as of this hour.