Is the housing cool-down already over?

By Erica Alini - Friday, February 15, 2013 at 10:44 AM - 0 Comments

Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

To recap:

• Sales of existing homes edged up 1.3 per cent in January from December, the first monthly gain since September 2012, the Canadian Real Estate Association said today.
• Compared to January 2012, non seasonally adjusted sales were down 5.2 per cent.
• Sales activity rose 5.6 per cent from December in Greater Toronto, 4.7 per cent in Greater Vancouver and 10 per cent in Edmonton. Overall, though, monthly sales activity declines in about half of all local markets.
• In year-over-year terms, sales were down four per cent in Toronto and as much as 13 per cent in Vancouver. In general, two thirds of local markets registered lower activity compared to January 2012, with Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and few others, bucking the trend.
• The average price for homes sold last months was $354,754, up two per cent from the same period in 2012.
• On average, the time lag between a new listing and a home sale was 6.6 months in January, virtually unchanged from December.
• Sales of single-family homes and town houses registered gains, whereas condos held roughly steady.
• The MLS Home Price Index, which adjusts for different types of properties sold, rose 3.3 per cent in January on a year-over-year basis. It was the smallest gain since April 2011.

What the analysts are saying:

• The January reading suggests that the housing market may be stabilizing after the cool-down witnessed since tighter mortgage rules took effect in July 2012, writes TD’s Derek Burleton. According to the bank’s research, the impact of new mortgage insurance rules tends to wear out after six to nine months. Burleton expects this to be the case for the latest round of tightening as well, especially since a relatively healthy labour market and interest rates at historic lows should encourage home-buying.
• In a report published yesterday, before today’s release by CREA, the International Monetary Fund warned that Canadian residential real estate prices are 10 per cent overvalued. The Fund also indicated that household debt to disposable income and real estate investment as a share of GDP have reached an all time high in 2012. Though the report predicted a housing correction, it said Canada is unlikely to experience “a house boom-and-bust a la United States.”

Down goes the housing market

By Erica Alini - Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:13 AM - 0 Comments

Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

To recap:

• Sales of existing homes in Canada dipped 0.5 per cent nationally in December from November in seasonally adjusted terms, the Canadian Real Estate Association said today. It was the the third consecutive month of declines.
• Actual, non-seasonally adjusted sales, dropped 17.4 per cent compared to December 2011.
• CREA’s MLS home-price index rose 3.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis, the smallest gain since April 2011.
• The number of homes newly listed for sale in December fell 1.3 per cent from November. Greater Toronto recorded the largest drop in new listings.
• Four of every five local markets recorded sales declines in December on a year-over-year basis. Calgary was the great exception, with December sales up seven per cent year-over-year.

Commentary:

• Sales numbers are moving exactly the way Finance Minister Jim Flaherty wants them to. “I don’t mind prices coming down a bit, too,” he told the Globe and Mail.
• There’s little doubt the sales plunge reflects the impact of the mortgage-tighnening rules introduced by the federal government in July, TD Economics’ Sonya Gulati wrote in a note to clients this morning. Still, it might be too early to say whether the finance minister has effectively tamed the housing market: Gulati notes that the impact of the new mortgage legislation is now likely fully priced in, and that the cooling effects of similar tightenings in the past have been only temporary.

Homes sales off, blame it on the rain.

By Colin Campbell - Thursday, June 19, 2008 at 3:28 PM - 0 Comments

Remember earlier this year, when realtors said not to worry about signs of a weakening housing market because falling sales were simply a result of bad weather? Well, the weather is pretty nice, and home sales are still falling in Toronto. This month they’re down 14 percent compared to last year, while listing are up 15 percent (more here). Regular readers will know we’re not at all surprised.  Some kind of correction is long overdue (when a crumby little side-by side bungalow on your street lists for $400,000, it doesn’t take a genius to know that something ain’t quite right).  The question is, how long and deep will it be? Maybe we’re about to drop off a cliff. Maybe we’re just gently pulling back. Maybe we’re just holding off on that new home until we’re extra sure that summer is really here.